Saturday, December 4, 2021

Unseasonable warmth departs; severe weather possible early Monday

A warm start to meteorological winter resulted in record-setting warmth on Friday as high temperatures reached the mid 70s, setting a record of 76 degrees at Memphis International. 



It stayed mild overnight as temperatures remained in the 60s ahead of a slow-moving (stalling, actually) cold front that sits over far northern MS this afternoon. We had some patchy fog and areas of drizzle this morning for the St. Jude Memphis Marathon. I'm sure the runners would have preferred cool and dry with lower humidity.

Saturday afternoon through Monday morning 

Conditions are pretty stable for the rest of today and tonight as the front doesn't move, allowing clouds to stick around and temperatures remain to be mild. Low 60s this afternoon and 50s overnight. A stray shower is possible due to the proximity to the front. Overnight the front starts to return to the north with wind switching from north back to south by Sunday morning. 

On Sunday, we'll be back in the "warm sector" ahead of a more significant front that arrives Monday morning. Temperatures will warm once again to 70 degrees or a bit higher with gusty southwest wind. Most of the day will be under cloud cover, but breaks in the clouds are possible and will offer more warming and increasing instability in the air. Scattered showers are possible, and maybe a stray thunderstorm, but overall the lower atmosphere will remain capped to storm development during the day. Don't lose track of the waterproof wind breaker Sunday.

The midday Saturday HRRR model showing "future radar" loop from noon Sunday to noon Monday. Scattered showers Sunday, then quick development of a squall line Sunday night, arriving Monday just before or during rush hour. (WeatherBell)

The cold front lights up to our northwest Sunday overnight as it enters Arkansas from the north. As storms develop, a few may become strong to severe. ETA for a fairly well-developed squall line in the Memphis metro is estimated to be just before sunrise Monday. The main threats will be heavy rain which could produce ponding water in time for rush hour and scattered strong to damaging wind gusts. There is a non-zero chance of a quick spin-up tornado within the line as well, but the threat is fairly low. Overall, the severe weather risk places the Memphis metro in a Level 2 (Slight) Risk. 


Severe weather prep

Because the storms will arrive while most of us are either sleeping or just waking up Monday morning, having a way to get severe weather warnings will be important. Widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, but having multiple methods of receiving information is necessary. We recommend SW+ Alerts in our MWN app as one such way. 



Also recommended: get those outdoor Christmas decorations and other loose objects secured by Sunday afternoon as the wind starts picking up to 25 mph or higher. Leaves in gutters and storm drains could also contribute to low-lying flooding or other water issues so a quick cleanup would be a good idea as well.

Next week

Cool weather and clearing skies are expected Monday behind departing showers Monday morning. A gusty north wind and prior warm weather will make temperatures near 50 feel even colder Monday. Tuesday morning we wake up to clear skies and cold conditions. Clouds start to return Tuesday with highs only in the upper 40s - another chilly day. Wednesday has trended drier in recent model data as a system moves by to our south and another to our north. Best rain chances will likely be south of Memphis Tuesday night, but for now a low rain chance mid-week is justified. Wednesday will be cool again with highs near 50. Lows look to mostly remain above freezing the first half of the week, though outlying areas could dip to 32 Tuesday morning.

The European model for Monday evening through Wednesday evening shows mainly dry conditions for the Mid-South. A couple of systems split the area Tuesday night with rain and snow passing by well to our north and rain showers likely missing us to the south. (WeatherBell)

By Thursday, another quick-moving front slides through the Mid-South. The front could bring a brief rain chance Thursday as highs climb to the upper 50s. Southerly warm wind arrives again Friday with temperatures back well into the 60s. The next major system looks to arrive next weekend with another chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms. More on that as we get closer. Overall, a very progressive pattern over the next week as one system after another moves through!


Stay tuned to our social media feeds for the latest on Monday's severe weather threat. 

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

"Fall" and hurricane season end, so here's the winter outlook!

Meteorological Fall Comes to an End

As the calendar turns to December and minds collectively turn towards the end-of-year holiday season, meteorologists see a changing of the seasons. While the official start of winter is when the winter solstice occurs (December 21), "meteorological winter" for climate record-keeping purposes starts December 1 and runs through the end of February. That means the record books are closed on autumn. We'll have more detail in the November climate summary in a few days, but preliminary data indicates that the average temperature for fall this year was 65.1 degrees, which is above the long-term average of 64.4 degrees. Rainfall, however, was below normal, totaling 8.92" for September-November versus the average of 11.70". 

Winter 2021-2022 Outlook

So what does the crystal ball look like for winter, perhaps the most anticipated season of the year? Early prognostications are driven primarily by the state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there are many other factors that make it pretty unpredictable, especially in the south. What is likely is the current La Nina climate pattern - an oceanic pattern that features cooler than average waters in the central Pacific Ocean - will continue through the winter. In fact, it's a "double dip" La Nina after the pattern dominated last winter, receded this summer, but reappeared in the fall. The typical impacts from a La Nina pattern are shown below. The Mid-South tends to be in the battle zone between wetter conditions to our north and drier to our south, while temperatures tend to be above average.

Typical impacts over North America during a La Nina winter. (NOAA)

The official Winter Outlook from NOAA is very close to what we would expect from a La Nina pattern and is shown below. There is a 40-50% chance of temperatures averaging above normal and odds of wetter than average conditions dip as far south as west TN. 

The temperature outlook for December-February 2021 from NOAA.

The precipitation outlook for December-February 2021 from NOAA

Remember that these are predictions of average conditions over a three-month period. That means there can certainly be cold spells in an overall warm pattern, or rainy periods in a dry month. In fact, you will certainly remember the Arctic outbreak last February that occurred in a very similar overall pattern to this winter. Other factors and atmospheric patterns will dictate the day-to-day conditions.

Atlantic hurricane season also ends

The start of December also means that the Atlantic hurricane season has also come to an end. It also marks the first time that the pre-defined list of 21 storm names has been exhausted in consecutive years. The 2021 season featured exactly 21 named storms (the third most in a year), seven hurricanes (five of which classified as "rapidly intensifying" during their life cycle), four major hurricanes, and eight U.S. landfalls. It was also the sixth consecutive "above normal" season and seventh consecutive season in which a named storm formed before the official start of the season on June 1. (NOAA's outlook published in May called for 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.)


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, November 20, 2021

Thanksgiving Week forecast: one wet day - guess which one?

I hope you took advantage of a couple of days in the 70s earlier this week, because the atmospheric patter has definitely shifted back to providing a mid-fall feel. In addition to cooler temperatures overall, regular frontal passages will mean a swings in temperatures typically associated with fall - mid 60s one day and upper 40s a couple days later and morning lows that vary from sub-freezing to mild. 




This weekend

Today brings us weather more on the "mild" side as southerly flow pushes the mercury up into the low 60s. However, the next front is just around the corner and will bring our next round of rain on Sunday. Low chances start the day, but by lunchtime, rain is likely to be "likely" and will linger into the afternoon hours. 

The Saturday morning run of the HRRR forecast radar product provides this clue on timing for Sunday's rainfall. Loop starts at 4am and ends at 10pm. (WeatherBell)

Thunder is not expected, so the severe threat is also nil. Rain tapers off by late afternoon, leaving behind 0.25-0.50" of accumulation. The blanket of clouds arriving with the system will keep lows mild overnight tonight (near 50) but also hold them in check on Sunday, remaining in the 50s all day.

Total rainfall from Sunday's front will likely be between 0.25-0.50" for most of us, as shown by the NWS official NDFD forecast. (WeatherBell)


Early Thanksgiving week - sunny and cold

As skies clear quickly Sunday night, we will see temperatures fall into the upper 30s but with a breezy north wind, it'll be quite chilly Monday morning as you get up to start a (hopefully) short week! A few clouds will move in by Monday, but overall the sunshine will be offset by cold air pouring in behind the departing Sunday system on north wind, holding high temperatures below 50 degrees for highs. Keep the coat on as some of the coldest air of the fall settles into the region!

The upper air pattern at about 18,000 feet on Monday (as forecast by the European model) depicts a large ridge of high pressure in the western U.S. and a large trough of low pressure in the east. Colors represent departures from "normal" pressure values. The blues are indicative of cooler than average temperatures. (WeatheBell)


Tuesday morning will be the coldest of the week with lows in the 20s outside the city and near 30 where concrete acreage outstrips dormant grass. The airport still has not reached the freezing mark yet even though surrounding areas have; this might be the day the growing season officially ends. (We're now over a week behind the "typical" first freeze in Memphis.) Look for sunny skies for the rest of the day with a bit of afternoon warming as high reach the mid 50s. 



Wednesday is a transition from the cold dome early in the week to the next approaching front. High clouds are likely but temperatures will be milder as wind shifts southerly. Lows will be near 40 and highs near 60. Not bad for last minute trips to the grocery!

Thanksgiving Day weather - wet

Unfortunately, as the blog title suggests, there will be one wet day this week, and it appears to be on the holiday itself! Weather models have been having a bit of a challenging time determining the evolution of the mid-week system, but seem to be getting their act together. 

The Saturday morning GFS model (which is fairly well aligned with the European model) for Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening, shows a round of rainfall moving through on Thursday. Rainfall should be be excessive and thunder is low probability as well. Friday currently looks dry. (WeatherBell)


The good news is the rain likely won't linger more than a day, as previously thought, nor will it be quite cold enough for wintry shenanigans. The bad news is, if your house is full, the back patio won't be a great option with a chilly rain falling. Temperatures will generally be in the lower half of the 50s. 

We'll provide more detail on our social media feeds as the day approaches, perhaps with some dry hours to start or end the day, but for now that level of detail is about as fuzzy as leftover turkey in early December. Provided Thursday's rain moves out in good order, Christmas shopping season kicks off with seasonal conditions and dry skies Friday and Saturday.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Magnitude 4.0 earthquake felt in Memphis metro

While the New Madrid seismic zone is known to produce literally hundreds of micro-quakes each year, it is rare that any are felt noticeably throughout the Memphis metro. However, on Wednesday night at 8:53pm, the New Madrid fault produced what we believe to be the strongest earthquake in 16 years, a magnitude 4.0 tremor that was centered deep in the earth's crust just northwest of  Poplar Bluff, MO. 

A seismograph from  Lake Charles, AR clearly recorded the motion of the earthquake. (USGS)

While certainly not as strong as the quakes that caused the Mississippi River to "flow backwards" in the winter of 1811-1812, reports were quickly received of jolts and rumbles across the metro. The last time a quake this strong occurred on the New Madrid fault was May 1, 2005, a magnitude 4.2 centered near Manila, AR, east of Jonesboro. 

The community-based "shake map" clearly shows the earthquake was felt over a large area. (USGS) 

More information on the earthquake, as well as a page that allows you to report if you felt it, can be found on the event page from the U.S. Geologic Survey. So while it was a noticeable event for many in the metro, it is a reminder that we live on the southern edge of an active fault and should be prepared, just in case. This time, we're simply glad that it wasn't any worse... and hoping it is not a pre-shock to "the big one."



Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Warming conditions to start the week, but much cooler to end it

After a period of chilly weather this weekend, warm weather will make a return to the Mid-South during the first half of the upcoming week. Warm, moist air flowing north into the area from the Gulf will allow our temperatures to warm up Tuesday and Wednesday, with a cold front bringing rain Wednesday night. The front will usher in cooler air for the latter part of the week, once again sending high and low temperatures back below average. Things look to stay cool for next weekend, with another rain chance possible on Sunday.

Pleasant Monday 

Monday will start off chilly, with temperatures in the upper 30s in urban areas and in the mid 30s for more rural locations. Sunshine and dry air will remain in place, and Monday looks to be a beautiful day to get outside! Highs will top out in the mid 60s with a south wind around 10 mph. The breeze from the south will start the process of bringing in more moisture to the region, so Monday night looks about 15-20 degrees warmer than Sunday night. Lows will only drop into the mid 50s - about where our highs were to end this past week - with skies staying mostly clear.

Tuesday and Wednesday warmup

Southerly flow ahead of the front continues into Tuesday, with much warmer afternoon temperatures. With more moisture in the air (dewpoints rise from near 40 Monday to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday), cloud cover will increase into Tuesday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies. Highs will reach the mid 70s across the Mid-South, a good ten degrees above average, making for a very pleasant day despite increasing wind gusts. Another mild night is in store for Tuesday night as the southerly breeze continues, with lows only dropping into the upper 50s under clear skies. 

Well above average temperatures are likely ahead of the cold front Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday afternoon will be 10-15 degrees above average! American (GFS) model temperature departures from normal shown. (WeatherBell)

Wednesday looks a touch warmer with sunshine to start the day but more clouds by afternoon. Gusty south wind to 25-30 mph will help push highs into the mid 70s area-wide, with a few locations possibly reaching the upper 70s. A stray shower or two is not out of the question by early Wednesday evening as the front approaches the area. 

Wednesday night cold front; much cooler Thursday and Friday 

The front pushes into the Memphis area by Wednesday night, with most of the rain from the front falling during the overnight hours. There is some model disagreement on how much rain we see out of this system, with the GFS (American) model showing around or just above a quarter of an inch and the ECMWF (European) model showing around a half an inch of rain. At this time, a quarter to a half inch of rain would be a good bet for Wednesday night. With a rainfall deficit of over an inch for both the month of November and the fall season, this system won’t help us erase those deficits very much. We can't completely rule out a thunderstorm, but this does not appear to be a severe weather night.

Rainfall amounts with the Wednesday night front don’t look overly impressive. Models show between 0.25-0.5” falling across the area. (NBM model/WeatherBell)

No official drought in the Memphis metro right now, but abnormally dry conditions are in place for areas generally along and west of the Mississippi River. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Thursday starts out cloudy with a few lingering morning showers. We’ll likely record our high temperature for the day in the pre-dawn hours, when temperatures are hovering in the low 60s. After the front clears the area, much cooler air moves in for the rest of the day, with temperatures only in the mid 50s in the afternoon. Skies will begin to clear by the end of the day as the front pulls away. Clear skies and the return of drier air will allow for another chilly night Thursday night with lows dropping into the mid 30s across the Memphis area and frost possible for outlying, rural locations. Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds with cool temperatures in the mid 50s.

Weekend forecast

There is a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the weekend rain and next cold front. At this time, models agree that Saturday will likely be dry with partly sunny skies. A stray shower is possible by the evening hours and highs will top out near 60. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday or possibly early Monday. After waking up to temperatures in the mid 40s Sunday, rain chances increase with highs topping out around 60 degrees. Another cool airmass moves in to start Thanksgiving week.

Temperature outlook for the week of Thanksgiving. Looks like we may be shivering in the Mid-South for Turkey day! (NOAA/CPC)

Christian Bridges
MWN Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, November 5, 2021

October 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

With October typically introducing the first cool air of the year, this month was a little less cool than might be expected. The first half of the month (15 days) were all above average temperature-wise with most days in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows. In fact, for the first 15 days of the month, the average temperature was seventh warmest on record. The pattern flipped on the 15th as a strong front moved through. After that front, only six days averaged above normal, with lows routinely in the 40s to low 50s. However, the month still ended 15th warmest in the 147-year record, weighted primarily by the low temperature averaging over 4 degrees above average.

A handful of wet days were spread out across the course of the month, including over an inch on the 2nd, nearly 2 inches on the 15th, and another 1.74" over the course of 5 days near the end of the month. For the month, precipitation totaled 0.80" above average. There was one marginally severe event during the month, a squall line that sparked a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Tornado Warning for far northwest MS. A funnel cloud was spotted southwest of Hughes, AR in St. Francis, AR, otherwise there were no severe weather reports in the metro. 


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 67.9 degrees (3.3 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 77.5 degrees (2.4 degrees above average) 
Average low temperature: 58.3 degrees (4.3 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 87 degrees (8th, 13th) 
Coolest temperature: 45 degrees (31st) 
Heating Degrees Days: 71 (45 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 166 (64 above average) 
Records set or tied: None
Comments: October's average temperature was 15th warmest on record (147 years).

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 4.78" (0.8" above average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (2.5 days above average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.80" (15th) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: Northwest/40 mph (15th) 
Average wind: 7.4 mph 
Average relative humidity: 71% 
Average sky cover: 48% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 66.0 degrees 
Average high temperature: 77.5 degrees 
Average low temperature: 56.1 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 88.8 degrees (8th) 
Coolest temperature: 40.9 degrees (17th) 
Comments: None 

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 3.03" (automated rain gauge), 3.37"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 0.88" (15th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: Total rainfall in Bartlett was nearly 1.5" less than at the airport.

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: South/27 mph (11th)
Average relative humidity: 81% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.94 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.
 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.64 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.50 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.
 

Climate Outlook - November 2021

The November climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the Great Lakes into New England, as well as much of the western U.S., particularly the Desert Southwest. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis over the course of the month. The average temperature for November is 52.7 degrees, twelve degrees below the October average.



Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the Great Lakes region and northeast, as well as the northwest U.S. and Great Basin. Below average precipitation is forecast for southern U.S. For Memphis, odds favor near average precipitation , which historically averages 4.69 inches in November.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info! 
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, November 1, 2021

Cool start to November; first frost of the season likely this week

If you’re looking for an early start to winter, this week should be perfect for you! Well below average temperatures are expected for the week ahead. After today, we likely won’t see 60 degrees again until late in the weekend! Rain chances look to be highest on Wednesday with very chilly temperatures, before we clear out and begin a slow warming trend for the end of the week. Lows will also get quite chilly, many of us will likely see the first frost, or even freeze, of the season by the end of the week. No above average, or even average, temperatures in sight! 

The GEFS (American ensemble) model temperature anomaly for the next 7 days, ending next Tuesday. Well below average for the Mid-South and eastern U.S. as a whole! (WeatherBell)


Rain and winter temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday, expect a lot more cloud cover in the sky. We wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 40s and only make it to the mid 50s by the afternoon. Skies should stay cloudy for much of the day, with a few sprinkles possible as well. However, dry air will really limit how much rain we see, and raindrops will struggle to make it to the ground. The best moisture looks to pass us to the south for this rain event. Better moisture looks to move into the area later Tuesday night as an area of low pressure slides by to our south. Showers become more likely after midnight, and lows will dip into the low 40s. 

Models are in good agreement that this system will be fairly dry for the Memphis area, as the best moisture stays to our south. Rainfall totals look to be in the 0.10-0.25” range, according to the European ensemble model. (WeatherBell) 


Wednesday looks like a forecast for late December, not early November! It will be a bit of a rude awakening after such a warm October. On and off rain showers and drizzle will linger through the day Wednesday with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s. With the best moisture with this system staying to our south, rainfall amounts will be fairly minimal, between a tenth and a quarter of an inch being most likely. We even may be talking about the ‘S’ word (yep, snow!) with this system -- although not for the Mid-South. (You thought we were talking about here weren't you??) 


Areas further east in the state of Tennessee, towards the Cumberland plateau, as well as the Ozarks of Arkansas could see some flakes on Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

Simulated radar from the GFS model for Wednesday afternoon shows an area of possible snow over the high elevations of AR with no accumulation expected. (WeatherBell)



Frosty nights, cool, clear days late week

We clear out Wednesday night, and we’ll wake up Thursday to full sunshine and a temperature right around 40 degrees. Highs will once again be well below normal, reaching only the low 50s in the afternoon. Clear skies, dry air, and light winds will allow our temperatures to plummet on Thursday night into the low to mid 30s. Widespread frost looks likely for most of us, so consider those outdoor plants as we head into the end of the week! 

Forecast low temperatures for Friday morning from the NWS. Outlying areas across west TN could see freezing temperatures and an end to the growing season. (WeatherBell)


Friday looks a bit warmer (but still well below average), reaching the mid 50s in the afternoon under sunny and clear skies. We get cold again for Friday night, with a freeze possible in outlying rural areas, and a widespread frost likely for the whole metro. Some more moderation of temperatures will occur over the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s Saturday with sunshine sticking around. Lows drop into the 30s again Saturday night, but should be a touch warmer, with only patchy frost possible across the metro. Sunday we should finally hit 60 again, still several degrees below average. By the beginning of the new work week, temperatures will return to the mid 60s with lows near 40 degrees

Christian Bridges
MWN Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, October 25, 2021

Chilly weather incoming, just in time for Halloween!

If you’re a fan of chilly nights, cool and rainy days, and leaves changing color, this week is the perfect forecast for you! Sustained cooler weather looks to FINALLY be here for the fall season! The weather is looking very nice for Tuesday, with a cold front and low pressure system bringing cloudy and rainy weather for Wednesday through Friday. Halloween weekend is looking wonderful, right around the average for the time of year, with chilly nights and cool, sunny, and crisp afternoons. At this time it’s looking great for trick-or treaters! 

A pattern shift coming

The overall weather pattern over the U.S. has essentially been locked in place for some time. I’m sure you’ve noticed the almost “endless summer” feel of September and much of October, despite some recent small stretches of relief from high humidity. There has been a persistent high pressure ridge over the Mid-South and eastern U.S., with a persistent low pressure trough over the western U.S. Recently, this pattern has brought a barrage of much-needed rainfall, and even some mountain snow, to the drought and wildfire stricken west coast, but unfortunately for us that has meant that fall weather has been delayed with well above average temperatures. Now, as we finish out the month of October, that pattern is finally flipping, with a high pressure ridge developing over the western U.S., and a low pressure trough developing over the eastern U.S. This means that cooler air looks to finally be here to stay for us in Memphis. 

The upper level pattern over the U.S. Thursday morning, as shown by the GFS model. You can easily see the large dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S., which will bring us below average temperatures. This is a complete reversal of the pattern over the last 6 weeks or so. (WeatherBell)

Tuesday-Wednesday - sun gives way to rain

The cold front that gave us a gorgeous Monday afternoon will allow our temperatures to fall into the 40s by Tuesday morning. We’ll wake up to cool and refreshing weather, and it should stay that way all day! We likely won’t even hit 70 degrees on Tuesday afternoon, with temps in the upper 60s, lots of sunshine, and dry air in place. However, by Wednesday rain and the possibility of a few storms looks to enter the picture once again. The good news is that the cold front moving in Wednesday will not have any warm air or severe weather ingredients to work with, since this front will come on the heels of Monday’s front. The atmosphere simply will not have enough time to ‘reset’ for another round of severe weather in the Mid-South. Rain chances will increase slowly Wednesday as the front approaches, starting with a few showers, increasing to a steadier rain with a few storms possible by the evening. The rain could be heavy at times Wednesday night, as the storm system will have an injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Eastern Pacific hurricane Rick. Highs will be right around 70 degrees, with a low in the mid 50s. 

Rainfall totals through the end of the week show widespread one inch totals are likely with heavier amounts to our west where more thunderstorms are likely. Some of this rain is indirectly contributed by a hurricane that makes landfall about 1500 miles away in the Eastern Pacific! (WeatherBell) 

End of the week - cool, damp, and breezy

The steadier rain moves out Wednesday night, but the large area of low pressure will linger over the Mid-South for a couple more days, keeping our weather cool, breezy, and unsettled. Thursday, expect a cool day with cloudy skies, off and on showers, and wind gusts that could approach 30 mph! Highs will only be in the mid 60s. We’ll drop down to near 50 for Friday night, and then Friday looks to be the coolest day of the next 7. We won’t budge much from our starting temperature of 50, and we should stay in the 50s all day! It will feel quite chilly out there with the cloud cover, lingering light rain showers or drizzle and breezy wind continuing. Keep this is mind if you are planning to head out to Friday Night Lights! 

Halloween weekend and beyond - FALL!

Luckily, the low pressure slowly lumbers out of the southern U.S. just in time for the holiday weekend. Saturday, clouds will be decreasing throughout the day, and we should end the day mostly sunny. Highs will remain cool in the low 60s. The clouds clearing out will allow our lows to drop much further, so Saturday night we should easily get into the 40s. 

A look at the temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for oct 28-Nov 4, as forecast by the European model. Below average weather persists into next week! (WeatherBell)

Halloween is looking picture-perfect. No tricks with this forecast! It should be a stellar day, with highs in the upper 60s, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and 50s for trick-or-treat time. We love to see it! 



The nice weather rolls on right into next week, and thankfully at this time it doesn’t look like well above average temperatures will be returning any time soon. 


The temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center for the first week of November indicates below normal temperatures will likely hang on for the eastern U.S. as the trough dominates at the upper levels. (NWS/CPC)

Christian Bridges
MWN Intern

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder