Sunday, June 23, 2019

Another round of storms... more to come after tonight?

As I type, the Memphis metro is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with yet another in a recent string of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poised to affect the region. This just a day after the final power restorations were made from the Wednesday night storms. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of the storm that brought 60-70 mph wind and 40K MLGW customers that lost power!


Clearly, the impending storm threat is of greatest concern. For multiple reasons, I don't suspect this will be as bad as Wednesday night - chiefly a slightly less "loaded" atmosphere (though still plenty of instability to support strong to severe storms) and the "angle of attack" of the current MCS. In other words, it's apex is headed well to our north, leaving us with storms that form on an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of the system to the southeast. While that could mean the storms last a little longer in the metro as they stretch from northeast to southeast, they likely won't be quite as powerful. However, they could still be quite strong with damaging wind gusts to 50-60 mph the primary threat.

Severe weather information as of 3:00pm. See our social media feeds for updated info.
Please see our social media feeds (linked at the bottom of this post) for the latest information. This blog will not provide regular updates or hyper-detailed info. Just plan on staying weather aware through the late afternoon and evening hours and have a backup plan if you have any outdoor plans after 5pm.


Rain could continue off and on Sunday night into early Monday. Any lingering showers should depart the area by mid-day Monday, if they last that long. With the cold front not pushing all the way through the metro, some stickiness will linger, but it won't be as humid as this weekend has been. In addition, expect temperatures to remain below normal Monday with highs in the mid 80s.


The atmosphere returns to a summer-like setup with temperatures climbing back to the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints in the 70 degree range, and daily (mainly afternoon and evening) thunderstorm chances. No major system look to affect the area, but the summer heat and humidity, along with outflows from any previous storms, could combine to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Any storms that form in the heat of the day could pose a risk for localized heavy downpours and strong wind gusts from downbursts.

Hopefully none of these is like the linear convective systems we have seen produce strong wind the past several days!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Details on potential severe weather Wednesday night

After a couple of days of scattered showers and storms but no major impacts, the primary weather system for the week is heading our way and will move through Wednesday night. This system brings our best chance of widespread rainfall, lightning and thunder, and the potential for scattered severe storms.

First, overnight tonight (Tuesday) and much of Wednesday appears to be dry for most, as there are no real "triggers" for showers and storms despite the humid airmass in place. In fact, tomorrow will likely be pretty hot (actually, right at normal) with highs near 90 and heat indices well into the 90s. Southwest breezes will also pick up in the afternoon with gusts in the 20s. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible in the heat of the afternoon, but your guess is as good as mine as to where. We'll go with a 30% chance of rain.

The mid levels of the atmosphere (18,000 feet or so) are shown by the GFS model, which loops out to Friday morning. Of primary importance is the "trough" or disturbance that moves through about two-thirds of the way through the loop, indicated by the shades of orange to red. That upper level support will provide some fuel for potential severe storms on Wednesday night.

Wednesday night is when a frontal system approaches, but more importantly, some upper level support that will serve to fire off thunderstorms in our humid and unstable air. The timing on these is still hard to pin down, but most of us will likely hear thunder overnight, and perhaps multiple rounds. By dawn, most of the rain and convective weather will be to our east, leaving diminishing clouds in their wake Thursday.

The morning run of the high-res NAM model, looping through Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night, shows minimal activity expected until Wednesday night when multiple rounds of storms are possible. (Take exact placement with a grain of salt at this point.) (

As for the severe weather chances, the Storm Prediction Center currently has our area in the middle of a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for the overnight hours. Damaging wind will be the main concern, while some hail can't be ruled out. Of course, heavy downpours and lightning are a given. Tornadoes are not a concern.

Many areas could pick up over an inch of rain (and for many of us, that would be kind of welcome!). Chances of this risk increasing seem pretty low, especially given the overnight timing of the storms. Keep an eye on our social media feeds for any changes on Wednesday.

Heading into the weekend, rain chances appear pretty low (0-20%) from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning. It will be very toasty with highs creeping back up above normal (lower 90s) and lows in the muggy mid 70s. The next frontal system that should have an impact arrives Monday.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, June 14, 2019

Summer (humidity and rain chances) returns after a beautiful week

Wow this weather has been absolutely amazing! Below average temps around Memphis this week, all in thanks to a large trough situated over the eastern part of the U.S. Last night winds shifted however, and now it's time for us all to unfortunately return back to June. That means humidity, rain, and a couple of thunderstorms now in the picture for this weekend and next week. 


Pleasant and dry conditions are still sticking around for the mid-south to finish off our week, with partly sunny skies and highs resting in the lower-to-mid 80's. The winds have shifted now, bringing us southerly breezes at around 10 mph. More clouds building up overnight, which will hold our overnight lows up in the upper 60's. 

The NAM Model showing temperatures across the US. You can see the winds shift when the cold air moves out to the NE. This invites back in warmer air to the metro. (Pivotal Weather)


The heat and mugginess returns again, and I am not ready for that. Still going to have some peaks of blue shining through, with partly sunny skies. Very breezy southerly winds at 15-20 mph, with some gusts reaching up to 25 mph. Expect an increase in humidity, as Gulf moisture is pumped north towards the mid-south. Saturday night more clouds build up into the morning, with lows dropping down into the mid-70's. 

Sunday (Father's Day)

Sunday is Father's Day, and I wish we had a better grilling out forecast. An unsettled pattern will begin Sunday, and last later on into the work week as well. This brings rain chances for the day up to 40%. Partly sunny skies in the morning, with a chance of PM thunderstorms. As for outdoor activities, it seems the best time to get outside would be in the morning. Despite the rain chances and a breezy southwest wind, still expecting temperatures to near 90. Overnight temps are going to cool off into the lower 70's. 
GFS Model showing rain chances later in the evening on Sunday. (WxBell)

Next Week

Showers and thunderstorms all of next week? Can we just skip it? With a cold front expected to move into the Ohio River Valley, and stalling out to our north, this is causing more precipitation to move further south. While we don't expect wash-outs every day, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible every day. It's a little too early to know about any severe weather for next week, but we can't rule out a few strong storms here and there. The anticipated cloud cover and moisture in the air will keep us a bit cooler with highs for most days just a few degrees cooler than normal, mainly in the mid-80's. Thursday and Friday are also looking to have mostly scattered showers. Friday near normal temperatures return with highs in the upper 80's.
The GFS Model showing scattered showers from Wed-Fri. (Tropical Tidbits)

Well I wish I had a better forecast for everyone after having such a great week, weather-wise. But happy early Father's Day to all of the amazing dads out there! Wishing everyone a good week.

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

May 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

May Climate Recap

Temperatures for May were generally below average for the first half of the month and above average for the second half, ending about 2 degrees above normal for the entire month. Of the first 14 days, 9 featured below average temperatures. After the 14th, there were no days with below average temperatures as the heat was turned up and highs in the 60s and 70s were replaced by 80s and 90s. In fact, an average May has two days that top out at or above 90 degrees. This year, 7 out of 8 days between May 21-28 reached 90 degrees.

Following the trend in temperatures, precipitation for the month ended near average, but the month could easily be split about in half. May started wet with all but 0.10" of precipitation falling in the first 18 days of the month. Measurable rain only fell on one day for the remainder of the month with no measurable precipitation after the 22nd, at least at the airport. This resulted in soggy conditions through roughly the first third of May (3" of rain fell on the 8th-9th), a bit of drying in the middle third, and very dry conditions for the final third of the month.

Thunder occurred on six days at Memphis International in May, typically an active severe weather month. However, severe weather only occurred on two days of the month. Several hail reports, up to half dollar size, were received on the afternoon of the 15th. Then, on the evening of the 18th, a severe storm moved across the river, downing trees and power lines and cutting power to tens of thousands. An anemometer mounted at 35 feet in Tom Lee Park measured a wind gust to 59 mph. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued on both days.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 73.8 degrees (2.1 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 82.6 degrees (1.4 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 64.9 degrees (2.7 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (26th, 27th)
Coolest temperature: 51 degrees (13th)
Heating Degrees Days: 10 (9 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 289 (63 above average)
Records set or tied: Record high minimum tied (73 degrees, 21st).
Comments: Seven days recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees or warmer, 5 more than the average for May.

Monthly total: 5.17" (0.08" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (0.3 days below average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.73" (8th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days recorded more than 0.5" of rain and those same three days also recorded over 1" of rain.

Peak wind: West-northwest/45 mph (18th)
Average wind: 8.2 mph
Average relative humidity: 73%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 73.1 degrees
Average high temperature: 83.4 degrees
Average low temperature: 62.8 degrees
Warmest temperature: 93.7 degrees (26th)
Coolest temperature: 49.1 degrees (13th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 5.40" (automated rain gauge), 5.87" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 15
Wettest date: 1.58" (8th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: South/30 mph (8th)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 29.95 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.79 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 75%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.52 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 81%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - June

The June climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. The far Northern Plains into the Pacific Northwest and northern California are likely to feature above normal temperatures, while the Southern Plains should be cooler than normal. The far southeast U.S. will also likely be warmer than average. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis in June. Memphis typically averages 79.6 degrees for the month, or about 8 degrees warmer than May.

A wet June is forecast for much of the Southern Plains into the Intermountain West. Below average precipitation is expected in New England and across the far northern tier of the country, as well as in the Pacific Northwest. For Memphis, odds favor near average rainfall, which historically averages 3.63" in June.

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder