Saturday, September 24, 2022

Scattered strong storms possible this evening, then #RealFall arrives Monday!

We interrupt two weeks of dry weather (and another one coming up next week) to bring you this special announcement: storms are in the forecast this evening! If you don't get rain tonight, it's quite possible that it'll be close to a month between rain systems for you, as the forecast is completely dry again starting tomorrow and lasting for at least a week. 

Let's focus on tonight though. After a very pleasant day yesterday in the wake of a fall front on Thursday, a warm front is moving back north today and bringing the temperatures back up into the lower 90s and dewpoints into the mid 60s - a temporary reprieve from fall. That heat, along with some stronger wind aloft and another approaching cold front late tonight, are setting the stage for scattered storms to form in northern AR late this afternoon or early evening, then get pushed southeast into west TN and north MS after dark.

The HRRR model simulated radar forecast from 6pm this evening through 4am Sunday. While not exactly what will happen, it gives us some clues as to timing and general areas that could see storms. (WeatherBell)

A few of these storms could be strong, with isolated large hail and high wind gusts the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center highlights the Mid-South in a Marginal (level 1) risk of severe weather, which means the storms should not produce widespread damage, nor extreme wind, hail or tornadoes. However, in the ~9pm-1am timeframe, a few could get frisky and cause minor wind damage (maybe some of your outdoor fall decor and election or school signs could fail). In addition, some hail is also possible in the stronger storms. If you don't want it damaged and have a garage, you might drive it in, but we're not expecting anything crazy like you see on those YouTube videos where falling iceballs create huge splashes in the backyard pool!


Following tonight's round of scattered storms (which may produce nothing at your house, we're not quite that good yet), a few more overnight showers are possible, then a cold front arrives Sunday morning. It'll sweep out the lingering clouds and turn those southerly winds today back to the north, from whence dry air will move in. It'll still be quite warm tomorrow with highs maybe around 90 again, but the drier air and north breeze in the afternoon will feel decent. The cooler air behind the front will be more noticeable by Monday morning as temperatures drop to near 60. Then, #RealFall builds in for the coming week. High pressure will take over with pleasant temperatures all week long and no rain in the forecast. 
That pattern should also help keep any remnants from Hurricane Ian, should it move into the southeast U.S., to our east. For now, we expect nothing from Ian. If you have friends or relatives in Florida though, time to make sure they are paying close attention! While we don't know exactly where it will go yet, it will be strong, with impacts from hurricane-force wind, very heavy rain, and coastal storm surge likely by mid-week somewhere in Florida. 

The 10am Saturday forecast track for Ian from the National Hurricane Center.

So hopefully we get some beneficial rain tonight, no storm damage, then can turn our attention to Actual Fall next week - and not a minute to soon!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Hope you enjoyed #FalseFall, because #SecondSummer is now arriving!

Remember when fall came for a few days and we had low humidity, below average highs, and refreshing, if not cool, mornings? Yeah, forget about that because it’s in the past now. Whether you like it or not, summer is back! “False fall” is behind us and we are now entering our “second summer.” 
The weather cooperated with us this weekend for the Cooper Young Festival and Memphis football! Plentiful sunshine and highs in the low 90s occurred both days. Overnight lows were back to near 70 as well. It was hot, but still a great weekend for outdoor plans!

Monday-Wednesday

The heat from the weekend is just a taste of what is to come for the start of the work week. A strong high pressure over the southern plains is responsible for the heat we will be feeling. As a result, dry conditions and potentially record-breaking heat will move into the Mid-South. Monday’s record high is 97, Tuesday’s is 100, and Wednesday’s is 98. All of those are in jeopardy, in addition to the record for the latest 100-degree day, which is September 20th (Tuesday). Although the record-threatening heat won’t last too long, it’s still mid-September and we would typically expect average highs to be in the mid 80s.
The GFS model forecast for the pressure pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere on Tuesday morning shows a massive dome of high pressure centered over south-central U.S. Yellow/orange colors indicate anomalously high pressure, and therefore heat. (WeatherBell)


Thursday-Friday

Surface forecast map valid 7am Thursday. A cold front will be just to our south by that time. (NOAA/NWS)

Thankfully, a cold front will move through the region early Thursday bringing drier air and a drop in temperatures, although it's doubtful there will be any precipitation, as rain chances remain to our north. When I say a drop in temperatures however, I do not mean below average… I mean the upper 80s to low 90s. 😒 While we will still be above average, the air will feel more comfortable. Overnight lows will also drop from the mid 70s into the mid 60s. 


Next weekend

The slightly cooler trend established after Thursday’s cold front will continue into next weekend, though it will still be too warm for late September. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the upper 60s. Just like this weekend, there will be decent weather for the Memphis football game against North Texas. It’ll be hot in the stadium and for tailgating though since the game starts at 2:30pm.

Owen Basselman
MWN Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, September 10, 2022

A rainy weekend, but early signs of fall are just around the corner!

Of course, as soon as we hit outdoor festival and football season, the rain shows up!

An upper level low is responsible for the today's dreary day. It is meandering by to our south, bringing rain in "Crazy Ivan"-style (like Russian subs in The Hunt for Red October that turn quickly to see what's coming from behind, or in the case of the weather, precipitation moving from east to west). 


Saturday

We'll see off and on rain chances this afternoon and evening, though likely not much in the way of thunder thanks to the morning clouds and rain putting the kibosh on instability as temperatures are likely to stay below 80. This will throw a bit of a wrinkle in outdoor plans at the Germantown Festival and Southern Heritage Classic among other events. Fortunately, it will be more of an annoyance and not dangerous. No major flooding issues are expected and lightning strikes should be rare.

Sunday

As we head into Sunday, that low starts to pull away but a few showers are still possible during the day. That is, until the afternoon, when a major trough taking shape over the northern plains pushes a cold front well south into the Mid-South by late afternoon, and then all the way to the Gulf Coast by Monday. That will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday mid to late afternoon or early evening. Until that front arrives, we'll be stuck in a fairly humid airmass with highs in the 80s.

The surface forecast for Sunday evening shows a cold front just southeast of Memphis with a sprawling high pressure system over the Plains. This front will introduce much less humid air and cooler temperatures early in the week. (NWS/WPC)


A Taste of early Fall this week!

Sunday night, things start to change - for the better! A dry continental airmass builds in rapidly behind said front, causing clouds to clear and dewpoints to plummet from near 70 to the mid 50s by Monday morning, and even lower beyond that. We'll wake up Monday morning to sunshine and morning temps in the lower 60s on a dry north breeze. Monday's high will be in the lower 80s, even with full sunshine, making it feel more like pumpkin spice season than late summer.



The rest of the week is shaping up to be really nice. With strong high pressure aloft and near the surface, the week will feature abundant sunshine and low humidity. That combination will mean warm daytime highs and cool morning lows early in the week, moderating to near 90 for the highs by week's end, but still comfortable mornings in the 60s through the end of the week. It is likely that many areas will see 50s on Tuesday morning, and possibly Monday and Wednesday mornings in the outskirts as well! After Sunday evening, no rain is in the forecast into the following weekend. 

Need to get the best return from a carwash? Monday is your day!

Forecast low temperatures on Tuesday morning, according to the NWS Blend of Models, shows widespread 50s across the Mid-South! (WeatherBell)

A reminder that if you appreciate the efforts of our team to keep you abreast of the latest weather for the area, and safe in the midst of storms, we have started a Patreon and would love to have you "throw a little in the tip jar!" We'll toss some extra benefits back your way on occasion for doing so, but you will also be contributing towards keeping our information flowing and free for all! Thanks much!



Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
Support our continuous efforts to keep Mid-Southerners safe and informed via Patreon
 
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Thursday, September 8, 2022

August 2022 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

August Climate Recap

The heat of late June and July continued into the first week or so of August, before settling in near average for the next couple of weeks. The last week of the month turned to above average once again, with the end result being an average temperature for the month near one degree above normal. However, the average temperature was over four degrees cooler than July! For the period of "meteorological summer" (June-August), summer 2022 ended as the fourth hottest on record, behind only 1980, 2010, and 2011.



Precipitation for the month was fairly abundant in spots, but was beneficial for the entire metro. While nearly 6" fell at Memphis International Airport, just over 3.5" fell in Bartlett. The result of more precipitation was very evident in the change in the drought index maps, as shown below. Severe drought encompassed large sections of the metro at the start of the month, but by the end of the month, the worst drought was "moderate" in parts of northwest MS, while drought was completely removed in Shelby County. There was no severe weather during the month, though Flood Advisories were issued for heavy rain a number of times during the month and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for far eastern DeSoto and northern Marshall Counties on the 21st.

Comparison of the Drought Index from the beginning to end of August shows the results of a good amount of rainfall across the Mid-South, especially in west TN and northeast AR. (U.S. Drought Monitor)


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 83.0 degrees (0.9 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 91.8 degrees (0.3 degrees above average) 
Average low temperature: 74.1 degrees (1.5 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 98 degrees (27th) 
Coolest temperature: 68 degrees (13th, 17th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0.0 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 565 (37 above average) 
Records set or tied: Record low maximum temperature tied on the 17th (77 degrees).
Comments: 26 days saw high temperatures meet or exceed 90 degrees, which is 5.8 above normal, but no days reached 100 degrees. Meteorological summer (June-August) ended with an average temperature of 84.4 degrees, which is 4th hottest on record (1980, 2010, 2011).

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 5.95" (2.58" above average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (2.4 days above average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.89" (10th-11th) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None 

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: West-northwest/40 mph (8th) 
Average wind: 6.1 mph 
Average relative humidity: 69%
Average sky cover: 54%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 78.8 degrees 
Average high temperature: 89.7 degrees 
Average low temperature: 70.6 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 96.5 degrees (8th) 
Coolest temperature: 62.4 degrees (13th) 
Comments: None 

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 3.69" (automated rain gauge), 3.67" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 1.03" (21st) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: None

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: West/30 mph (8th)
Average relative humidity: 81% 
Average barometric pressure: 30.01 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.
 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.89 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 68% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.57 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 82% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info! 
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Thursday, September 1, 2022

How you can support your trusted LOCAL weather source of 20 years

In a previous blog post, we outlined a series of changes that are in the works or recently completed in our organization. These include the addition of Richard as co-owner and meteorologist at Cirrus Weather Solutions, introducing new live streaming coverage via YouTube during inclement weather, and updates to the MWN and StormWatch+ apps. 

All of these changes - from new offerings to rebuilt apps and beyond - do not come without a cost. Operating MWN and StormWatch+ fulfills a passion Richard and I have to serve you and keep you safe, but also requires a great deal of commitment - of both time and financial resources - and it often interrupts daily life. (Our wives aren't exactly keen on us pulling from the household budget, while also breaking away from a family meal to "answer the weather bell"!) Our monthly expenses must continue to be maintained. Servers in the cloud that won't crash while pushing thousands of severe weather notifications aren't inexpensive. Neither is maintaining current versions of the tools we use to provide you the best possible forecasts and the most accurate severe weather updates. We also have plans for additional expansion that require a certain level of investment. 

That said, we have a couple of guiding principles that we refuse to violate:

1. We will NOT interrupt your access to potentially life-saving information with a paid advertisement.
2. We will NEVER sell your personal information in the name of profit (or even just to pay the bills). 

We are greatly appreciative of the amazing support you have offered over the years. It keeps us going when storms are bubbling at 2am and waking you up! But with only a couple of exceptions, nearly everything we have offered to this point has been without charge and without asking for anything in return, other than a referral to your friends and family. To be perfectly honest, we have stretched the dollars we receive, primarily through app purchases, a long way! 


So to that end, we are using this #901Day - a day in which "all things local" takes center stage - to announce the launch of our Patreon page. If you are not familiar with Patreon, it is a way to recognize the efforts of content creators of all types with small monthly donations. Think of it as a tip jar for great service. We're not looking to fund an MWN Owner's Cruise, nor are we going to take home a giant profit! We simply want to be able to continue to offer the reliable, trusted weather information you have come to appreciate, and also expand to a larger audience - with more tools at our disposal - to make the service even better. And we ask for your support in making this happen.

It's very easy to participate and we are intentionally making it very inexpensive as well. We will be able to recognize our donors in various ways (for those that choose), plus offer some perks for those who go a little above and beyond. All three "tiers" of support are less than you would spend for a single fast casual meal for one person! The point is, when many people band together to make seemingly insignificant contributions, great things can happen. We look forward to doing just that - using any donations you are kind enough to contribute to expand our offerings and to keep even more people safe and informed.

We are humbled by your ongoing support, and sincerely appreciative of your consideration in this new way!


By the way, we've recorded a video message that provides a little more detail on our history, and our future, and explains why each small commitment is important to the overall mission. We'd love for you to check it out here.

Gratefully,

Erik Proseus & Richard Hoseney
MWN Meteorologists

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, August 20, 2022

Changes ongoing and upcoming at MemphisWeather.net!

A lot has been going on behind the scenes this year for MemphisWeather.net. While most changes take place "under the hood," some will manifest themselves to our followers and friends over the coming few months. We thought it would be a good time to shine the light on a few of them:

Staff addition to Cirrus Weather

For at least a few years, I've been keeping my eyes open for the right person to help expand the MWN offerings, grow the brand, and honestly, take a bit of the load off once in a while, especially during active weather periods. In the fall of 2020, I brought on a friend and local meteorologist in a contracting role to write a few blog posts, cover inclement weather for MWN occasionally, and help maintain the StormWatch+ brand. The "trial period" was highly successful and this past spring, our business relationship was formalized. Meteorologist Richard Hoseney joined me as co-owner of Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC!

Richard was born and raised in the Mid-South, and has always been a fan of the weather since getting involved with Storm Spotter training from the NWS here in Memphis.  He attended Mississippi State and earned his Bachelor's Degree in Meteorology in 2005, interning back in 2003 at FOX 13 with Jim Jaggers.  He chased some prominent hurricanes too! Richard was in Gulfport during Hurricane Katrina, in Orange (Texas) during Hurricane Rita, and in Pascagoula during Hurricane Ivan.  

After graduating, he met his wife who is originally from eastern Oklahoma.  They moved to Oklahoma where Richard worked at a locally-owned radio group as their staff meteorologist, covering everything from severe weather to ice storms to flooding, and formed a partnership with the county's Emergency Management in assisting the storm spotters during severe weather.  While in Oklahoma, Richard got into aviation, obtaining his private pilot certificate and his own plane. (And now he pilots #MWNDrone1 as well!)  In 2018, Richard and his wife moved back to the Mid-South after accepting a job as a meteorologist at FedEx.  He loves the Mid-South and enjoys forecasting the weather, especially severe weather. Richard has been actively working on several projects to improve the services offered by MWN over the past few months. You'll be seeing more of the fruits of his labor soon! Speaking of which...

MWN Live Streams

One of the projects Richard has taken on that we think you all will benefit greatly from is the addition of severe weather live streams via YouTube. We've been tweaking the software setup and training behind the scenes in order to begin offering you the opportunity to "look over our shoulder" and see detailed views of radar and other tools we use during severe weather. There will also be a live chat where you can ask us questions and get explanations on what you see out your window, or just over the horizon! We might even bring on one of our meteorology student interns at times to help out! 


Our goal is to enhance MWN's content in a way that provides real-time updates for the storms affecting YOU. We'll basically be making our hyperlocal, no-hype coverage more widely available - via your mobile device or even your smart TV! And it will be done with no ads, no fees, and no preempting your favorite shows. We'll let everyone know via our Facebook and Twitter feeds when we start a broadcast, but the best way to find out is to subscribe to our YouTube channel then click the bell for notifications when we go live! Be watching for a debut broadcast soon!

Changes to the Cirrus Weather app offerings

A significant shift has taken place over the past year in our mobile app sector. Most of you are aware that we offer two mobile apps - MemphisWeather.net and StormWatch+. These apps (including Android and iOS versions of each) have been the work of a single app developer since their inception over 10 years ago. Our "app guy" is unbelievably smart. He has shown his dedication to all of you for a decade and receives all of the credit for your ability to get your daily dose of MWN, and also to receive valuable severe weather alerts that ensure your safety and sanity. We are eternally grateful for his tireless and dedicated efforts. 

But maintaining what is effectively four apps was becoming a challenge, so we mutually agreed to move in new directions. Fortunately, after searching for just the right match, we are excited to have secured a new development firm based in our home state of Tennessee, Rise Above Creative! This transition will mean a change in our mobile app offerings though (which, to be honest, was the path we were headed down anyway).

The StormWatch+ app is currently being rebuilt from the ground up in an easier-to-maintain format. Once it is "re-launched" in a couple months, we will be integrating your trusted MWN content into the StormWatch+ app. This will simplify things for us significantly, while still allowing us to provide the most-used content from MWN in app form. In addition, you'll gain access to reliable nationwide weather information that some of you have been asking for in the MWN app, as well as maintaining the super-fast and pinpoint-accurate SW+ Alerts severe weather notifications that many of you already use in either the MWN or StormWatch+ apps. As always, all of this will be available without a single advertisement in the app and with a tight grip on your personal data!


We'll be communicating further as the transition time nears, but for right now, there is nothing you need to do. We look forward to a streamlined experience for our app users and getting all of the information you need in a one-stop shop!

That's the gist of it! We hope these changes and additions are well-received, and we always appreciate your support as well as your inquiries. We would appreciate you taking a minute to hop over to our YouTube page and clicking subscribe (then don't forget to click the bell!), and we'll keep you posted on app updates as they draw near!

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

A weather "squeeze play" this weekend, then near average conditions for the coming week

The overall weather pattern has become more favorable for drought and heat relief over the past couple of weeks, with improvements in both categories following a brutal June, July, and early August. So far this month, the average temperature has been over four degrees cooler than July, and yet we're still slightly above the typical August average. (That says more about July than it does August.) 

Rainfall the past few weeks has also put a dent in the drought. Below are the drought index maps from late July and this week. We still have a ways to go, particularly getting wet conditions deeper into the soil, but it's improving and what we see above ground is in much better shape than it was a few weeks ago!

Comparison of the drought maps for late July and mid-August show significant improvement in northeast AR and some decent improvement along the Mississippi River and west TN as well. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Saturday-Monday: a weather "squeeze play"

A couple of frontal systems will play into how the weather evolves over the next 48-72 hours, which probably isn't ideal if you are looking for a completely dry and sunny weekend! Although we're not expecting any washouts, rain chances will be elevated, especially on Sunday.

A warm front to our south on Saturday morning is lifting north, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to north MS this morning, spreading northeast. Additional pop-up showers and storms are possible across the metro this afternoon. While models aren't indicating a great deal of rain, we could see a little "whack-a-mole" on the radar throughout the day. In general, clouds will increase and dewpoints will slowly tick up into the low 70s on a southwest breeze as well. Look for highs near or just above 90 degrees. Overall coverage of cells will diminish to isolated overnight, so if you have tickets for Live at the Garden or other activities outdoors this evening, it's not likely to be wet.

The morning HRRR model shows thunderstorms over north MS moving northeast and largely missing the metro. While it stays mainly dry after that, we can't rule out a few showers or t'storms popping up briefly this afternoon. (WeatherBell)

Meanwhile, to our north, a cold front is also inching south from the Ohio River Valley and Missouri. It will approach on Sunday as the warm front lingers over the area. This combination will provide our best chances of rain maybe for the coming week. Once again, it won't be a washout, but chances are probably higher than 50/50 that you will get at least some rain tomorrow, and thunderstorms are also possible, especially in the afternoon. Wea re not outlooked for severe weather, so the chances of strong wind and hail are minimal, but the lightning threat will need to be monitored if you plan to be outdoors. We'll probably have a "Pool Alert" at some point! Southwest wind will continue to feed the moisture into the area, so highs near 87 could be a bit uncomfortable in the muggy air. Rainfall should generally be a half inch or under for most, though some heavier cells could drop up to an inch. Rain chances wind down some, though not zeroed out, Sunday night with the cold front dropping over the metro.

The surface weather map for Sunday evening shows a cold front just to our north, while the warm front to the south is largely dissipated. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday. (NWS/WPC)

By Monday, the cold front/warm front mash-up will be along the I-40 corridor and slowly continuing to ooze south. We'll see wind shift to the west with mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances continue, but at a bit lower level (30% or so), and the best chance will be in the afternoon over north MS ahead of said frontal boundary. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and there will still be some sticky air, but high dewpoints should start to retreat a bit as the front eases southward. 

The cold front, by Tuesday morning, will be well to our south, ensuring drier conditions and less humid air heading into the mid-week period. (NWS/WPC)

Rest of the week: fairly average for August

With the front pushing into north MS, rain chances should diminish even further for the mid-week time period. We're looking at partly cloudy skies, not-intolerable humidity levels, and high temperatures near 90 degrees, which is average for this time of year. With dewpoints suppressed a bit, there will be no big heat index issues and morning lows will probably drop into the upper 60s outside the city while remaining near 70 in the urban jungle. 

Forecast dewpoints from the European model for the period between Monday evening and Wednesday evening clearly show tropical moisture (oranges, dewpoints in the 70s) just to our south across the southeast states, but drier air (yellows, dewpoints in the 60s) just to the north, including the Memphis metro. We're on the good side of that moisture boundary! (WeatherBell)

There are hints from some mid-range model data that we could get a return of the front to our south by late in the week, which might bring a few heat-of-the-day thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Other solutions indicate that it will stay dry with high pressure strengthening aloft. It does appear that temperatures could tick up just a bit towards next weekend, so lower 90s during the day and lower 70s in the early mornings seems to be where temps will fall. 

To recap: scattered rain chances the next couple days, highest on Sunday, with slightly below average temperatures Sunday and Monday. Then mainly dry for much of the week ahead with temperatures returning to near average. It appears that August will indeed go down as a "cooler" month than July was. And for that, our utility budgets are appreciative!

The temperature outlook for the last week of August favors near normal temperatures for our area, while the west and east bake. Excessive moisture and rain chances result in cooler than average conditions in the south-central portion of the country. (NWS/CPC)


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, August 6, 2022

July 2022 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

July Climate Recap

Heat was the story in the month of July as the hot and dry pattern from the second half of June blasted right through the calendar change and continued for nearly the entire month. Only four days failed to reach a high of at least 95 and three were the final three days of the month. The century mark was reached or exceeded ten times during the month (third most on record) with a max of 103 on two occasions. The low temperatures remained above 70 degrees for the entire month and only dropped below 74 once, a feat that has only occurred one other time in recorded history (2011). 

In sum, the month ended well above average temperature-wise (second warmest on record behind 1980). The average high temperature was third warmest on record and the average low temperature was second warmest on record. For the period June 1 through July 31, the average temperature in Memphis was the hottest on record at 85.2 degrees.


Drought conditions that began in June worsened considerably through the first few weeks of July with the persistent heat and lack of widespread precipitation, resulting in a large portion of the metro in "severe drought" as we approached the end of the July. When rain did fall, it tended to be fairly localized and heavy, resulting in local relief from dry conditions, but little relief over the entire area until we neared the end of the month. Reflective of the mainly localized nature of the storms, the rain gauge at MWN in northern Shelby County received almost three more inches of rain than the airport. Over 50 percent of the rain that fell for the month at the official observing site occurred in the last three days of the month and much of the rest fell on the 18th. Flood Advisories during those two events were the only weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service for the metro in July.

Comparison of the Drought Index from the middle of June to the end of July shows the results of  the very dry pattern experienced for much of the last two months. (U.S. Drought Monitor)


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 87.1 degrees (4.3 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 97.1 degrees (5.2 degrees above average) 
Average low temperature: 77.2 degrees (3.6 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 103 degrees (5th, 8th) 
Coolest temperature: 71 degrees (18th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0.0 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 693 (143 above average) 
Records set or tied: Daily high temperature records were set or tied on the 7th (101 - tied) and 8th (103), while record warm minimum temperatures were set on the 5th (80) and 20th (82).
Comments: 29 days saw high temperatures meet or exceed 90 degrees, which is 6.9 above normal. Ten days met or exceeded 100 degrees, ranking third behind 1980 (19) and 1954 (11). The average temperature for the month placed July second warmest on record behind 1980. The average high temperature was third warmest on record and the average low temperature was second warmest on record.

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 4.24" (0.58" below average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (0.5 days below average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.50" (31st) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None 

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: Northeast/35 mph (17th) 
Average wind: 7.5 mph 
Average relative humidity: 63%
Average sky cover: 47%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 84.0 degrees 
Average high temperature: 94.8 degrees 
Average low temperature: 74.5 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 101.0 degrees (8th) 
Coolest temperature: 64.7 degrees (11th) 
Comments: None 

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 6.91" (automated rain gauge), 7.08"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 2.12" (1st) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: None

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: Northeast/28 mph (17th)
Average relative humidity: 72% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.97 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.
 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.81 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 73% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.86 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 72% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info! 
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunday, July 31, 2022

Much-needed rain closes out a hot two-month start to summer 2022

Today closes out what will go into the record books as the hottest June/July on record in Memphis, ironically with one of the coolest days in the two-month record! Until this past Friday, not a single day since June 11 had failed to reach 90 degrees, and most of them were in the mid 90s or higher. Sixteen days have seen the high reach 100 degrees! Not only will the average temperature (average of all highs and lows) be the hottest on record, so will the average high temperatures, eclipsing 95 degrees for only the third time on record (including 1952 and 1954). 


That heat has been exacerbated by, and with some likely contribution from, the lack of precipitation. Until a wetter pattern started on Friday, total precipitation for the past two months has been more than five inches below the norm of around nine inches. This has resulted in flash drought conditions as shown below. The drought allows the temperatures to be even hotter because there is less moisture fed back into the low atmosphere from the ground, allowing it to heat more than usual. 

A comparison of the drought index from June 14, when summer was starting pretty decent, to this past week, when we were all crying "mercy" following a brutal six weeks of heat. This weekend's rain should help things improve on the drought side when this week's index is released. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

But this weekend has provided a reprieve, as a front finally stalled over the area and moisture from the southwest streamed in, allowing multiple rounds of precipitation to fall over the entire region. While the ground eagerly soaks up the welcome rainfall, the clouds and precip are holding high temperatures below normal on consecutive days for the first time in a month. Muggy conditions, featuring dewpoints in the mid 70s, are keeping morning lows warm, but anything below 80 degrees is likely ruled a win right now!


Looking ahead, the upper level trough that resulted in this welcome pattern shifts to the east to start the week. We'll likely see elevated rain chances into Monday afternoon before high pressure at the surface and upper levels builds back in for the next several days. This pattern will mean a return of more typical summertime conditions. In case you've forgotten what is "expected" in summer, it isn't 100 degrees and parched earth! We're looking at highs in the low to mid 90s, enough humidity to kick heat indices just above 100, lows in the mid 70s, and small thunderstorm chances during the afternoon hours that will probably miss more of you than they will rain on. But we can't rule them out! 

The Sunday morning European model ensemble average of mid-level height anomalies for the coming week. Basically, high pressure aloft centered over the Southwest U.S. will control most of the country this week with slightly above average pressure over the Mid-South contributing to summerlike weather conditions. (WeatherBell)

So while August will be hot, it should start off not-as-hot as we had for much of the month of July, which will be the second hottest July on record behind only the benchmark of 1980.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder