Friday, May 22, 2020

What's in store for Memorial Day weekend? Are we heading into "summertime" conditions?

Over the past week we saw mainly dry conditions, but substantial cloud cover and below normal temperatures due to a stagnant upper level low pressure system over middle TN. As we move into Memorial Day weekend we expect temperatures to rise and the "muggy" feel to return to early summer levels for the first time since early last fall. Even after the rise in temperatures over Memorial Day weekend, we will most likely stay warm with temperatures in the 80s throughout next week.

Saturday and Sunday

After overnight temperatures on Friday only drop to around 70 we will see a big warm up on Saturday. Saturday temperatures will top out in the upper 80s with high humidity, which means it will be hot and "muggy". Heat indices could reach the lower 90s, making for an unpleasant time outside but great if you have a pool! There will also be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Saturday night lows will only drop to the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

On Sunday the hot and muggy conditions will stay with us as temperatures will again top out in the upper 80s. Heat indices could again top out in the lower 90s, along with another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. During the overnight hours heading into Monday the low will only drop to around 70, under mostly cloudy skies.

Surface map valid the morning of Sunday May 24th. We are in the area signaling possible showers and thunderstorms. (NWS)

Memorial Day (Monday) and Tuesday

On Memorial Day not much will change as the highs will reach the mid 80s along with another chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Be sure to watch for our social media posts on Memorial Day so you can stay updated on potential showers and thunderstorms. If you have appropriately-distanced outdoor activities planned, keep an eye on the sky for mainly afternoon scattered storms. As we head into Tuesday lows will again only drop to around 70 overnight under some cloud cover.


On Tuesday, temperatures will top out in the mid 80s, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows will drop to around 70. 

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all have very similar forecasts. The afternoon high will probably reach the mid 80s with lows dropping to around 70. All three days there is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms (~50% chance).

The reason we are seeing rather consistent conditions over the second half of next week is due to a 500mb (18,000ft) jet streak being positioned to our west and Bermuda high to our east. This will result in moist and unstable southerly flow which will lead to a low forming in Texas and possible showers and thunderstorms over our area.
This is model output from the Euro showing 500mb heights and wind valid Tuesday morning. On the map there is a 500mb low centered along the Red River between Oklahoma and Texas. There is also a high pressure system centered over the Mid-Atlantic region (WxBell).


"Summertime" Conditions

Interestingly next week will stay very consistent, as you can see from the forecast. This signals the start of "summertime" conditions in the Memphis area. Summertime conditions are usually characterized by warm and muggy conditions with a chance of showers and storms mainly during the hottest part of the day. These summertime conditions might struggle to maintain their grip though at first, as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) thinks we could be headed towards a bit cooler temperatures as we head into early June. CPC is predicting slightly below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation from May 29th to June 4th.

The CPC is predicting that temperatures could be slightly below normal for the week of May 29th to June 4th.
The CPC is predicting that precipitation could be slightly above normal for the week of May 29th to June 4th.

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Friday, May 15, 2020

Rain chances and early summer humidity return, but for how long?

Over the last week we saw below normal temperatures. We also saw mainly sunshine, but Tuesday was a pretty chilly and dreary day. Over the next week we will see shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, but then reduce after Sunday with a passing cold front. Monday through Friday looks great with relatively mild temperatures and little chance of rain.

Tonight, Saturday and Sunday

After we top out in the lower 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms today, the overnight hours will see a decrease in shower and thunderstorm potential. Overnight temperatures will only drop to the upper 60s, with an abundance of clouds, and a very small chance of an isolated shower.

Saturday will be similar to what we saw today because there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms with temperatures topping out in the mid 80s. Saturday night and heading into Sunday will be similar to Friday night, as temperatures will probably drop to the upper 60s, with a chance of showers. Muggy conditions will also make it feel quite a bit more uncomfortable than we have been used to lately.

Sunday we are expecting to see an approaching cold front. This means we will be in the warm sector of the low pressure system leading to temperatures around 80. This cold front will ultimately bring showers and thunderstorms After it passes it will bring cooler temperatures and a less humid "feel". Sunday night temperatures will drop to the lower 60s with the passing of the cold front.

This is a map of the expected surface analysis for early Sunday morning. A low pressure system bringing a cold front will most likely be approaching our area (via Weather predictions Center [WPC]). 

Monday and Tuesday


After the cold front passes on Sunday night, it will bring a nice and pleasant Monday. We are expecting a decrease in clouds towards more sun, low humidity, and temperatures in the lower 70s. Heading into Tuesday, overnight temperatures will drop to the mid 50s making for a rather chilly night for this time of year.

On Tuesday we will be in store for another pleasant and mild day with partly cloudy skies, with temperatures again topping out in the lower 70s. Heading into Wednesday during the overnight hours we will again drop to the mid 50s making for a rather chilly night.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday 

Wednesday we will have a little cloud cover, making for a mostly sunny day. Temperatures on Wednesday will also top out in the mid 70s for another mild and pleasant day. Heading into Thursday morning temps will be closer to normal as they will drop to around 60. Thursday will top out near 80 under partly cloudy skies.  Thursday night into Friday temperatures will drop into the lower 60s. Friday will be a little warmer as we are expected to top out in the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.

The reason we will see rather mild and pleasant conditions next week, is because after the cold front passes Sunday, a high pressure system will move over the area bringing plenty of sunshine and low rain chances. A high pressure system almost always brings benign weather conditions.

Week Two

Looking at the predictions put out by the Climate Predictions Center (CPC), temperatures could return to above normal with slightly below normal precipitation from May 22nd to May 28th.

The CPC has a 40-60% of above normal temperatures from May 22nd to May 28th. 

The CPC has a 30-40% of below normal precipitation from May 22nd to May 28th.


Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

So long cool temperatures, hello early summer!

Rest of Today

A weak high pressure remains over the southeast as light rain continues across areas along and north of the Mississippi/Tennessee state line this afternoon. Rain chances will decrease into late afternoon/early evening today but clouds hang on keeping our high temperatures near 60. Cool days will be behind us as a warm front moves up from the south tonight. This will shift our winds to the southeast and keep our temperatures fairly stable with overnight lows staying in the mid 50s. A few scattered showers are possible overnight and into early Wednesday as the warm front pushes north.  

6:00 am Surface Analysis from the Weather Prediction Center for the continental United States. This shows a weak high pressure situated over east-central TN and a forming warm front in the Gulf of Mexico. This warm front will move north overnight bring much more seasonable temperatures across the southeast. (NOAA/WPC)

Wednesday and Thursday 

Weak high pressure ridging will build over the southeast bringing drying conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. A few isolated showers early Wednesday are possible but much of the day will remain dry. Mostly cloudy conditions will give way to partly sunny skies by Wednesday afternoon with much more seasonable highs in the upper 70s. Overnight isolated showers are possible as southerly flow increases bringing moisture into the upper levels. Overall a nice night in store for Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 60s.

Thursday is much of the same with partly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the lower 80s - much more typical of mid-May! Winds will become more gusty throughout the day on Thursday out of the south between 10-15 mph with higher gusts. Continued warm air and moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico will cause humidity levels to rise and allow for rain chances to increase heading into Thursday night. An isolated shower is possible before midnight but mainly to the west of the metro in eastern Arkansas.

European Model from Wednesday morning through Thursday at midnight. Most of Wednesday and Thursday will be dry.  (PivotalWeather)

Friday and Saturday

Isolated showers are possible Friday morning but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present across the area by early afternoon. Everyone will likely see a shower on Friday but thankfully this will not be an all-day wash-out event. Afternoon highs will vary slightly depending on how much rain an area sees, but most of us will be in the lower 80s Friday afternoon. Overnight rain chances will slack off a bit but with a continued southerly wind, isolated showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out. Into Saturday more of the same pattern will persist with a partly cloudy start to the day but scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Once again highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the region depending on how much sunshine are area gets.

European Model showing scattered convection across the southeast from Thursday at midnight to Saturday at midnight. Most of the rain will move through the area during the afternoon hours on Friday and Saturday. (PivotalWeather)

Friday and Saturday bring us a much more seasonable pattern with warm and muggy afternoons. We have been lucky so far with humidity and temperatures levels staying fairly cool, but a persistent south wind will help to end that trend and welcome early summer weather! 


Sunday through Tuesday

Keeping with the early summer pattern, Sunday will start off with temperatures in the upper 60s but bring another rain chance for the metro as a weak low pressure system approaches the southeast U.S. Conditions will be very similar to Saturday with partly cloudy skies transitioning into scattered thunderstorms and showers by the afternoon and highs warming into the lower 80s. The low pressure system will stall out in northern Louisiana late Sunday keeping rain chances around for early next week. Monday will be a mix of sun and clouds with scattered thunderstorms across the metro area for most of the day. Afternoon highs will be continue to be in the lower 80s and overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s. More of the same for Tuesday with partly sunny skies and scattered showers with highs in the mid 80s by the afternoon.

European Model for 6:00 am Sunday through midnight on Tuesday. A low pressure system will stall over northern LA/ southern AR and will bring scattered showers across the metro Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. (PivotalWeather)
Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, May 9, 2020

April 2020 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

April Climate Recap

April turned the corner from the warm winter and early spring as temperatures averaged below normal for the first time in a while. High temperatures were the primary contributor, averaging more than three degrees below normal. Only two days in April reached 80 degrees, compared to three in March. Breaking from the very wet streak of the first quarter of the year, April rainfall came in right at average with nearly one half of the total rainfall for the month occurring on the 12th when some reports of severe weather were also received.

Severe weather occurrences were on the evening of the 8th in Fayette County with some wind damage, the evening of the 12th across the metro as trees and power lines were felled by strong wind, and on the night of the 28th-29th across the southern sections of the metro, including northwest MS. Strong wind was again the primary severe weather phenomena.

Average temperature anomaly (departure from average) for the month of April 2020 (Data: PRISM. Graphic: WxBell)

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 60.3 degrees (2.6 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 69.7 degrees (3.3 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 50.9 degrees (2.0 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 82 degrees (8th)
Coolest temperature: 34 degrees (15th)
Heating Degrees Days: 158 (21 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 23 (52 below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.57" (0.07" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11 (1.4 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.60" (12th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: One day recorded more than an inch of rain, with almost half of the monthly total falling on the 12th.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West/50 mph (13th)
Average wind: 8.3 mph
Average relative humidity: 69%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 59.4 degrees
Average high temperature: 70.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 49.0 degrees
Warmest temperature: 85.1 degrees (8th)
Coolest temperature: 31.5 degrees (15th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.68" (automated rain gauge), 5.79" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest date: 2.69" (12th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West/34 mph (25th)
Average relative humidity: 74%
Average barometric pressure: 29.94 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.32 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 59%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.77 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 53%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - May 2020

The April climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the western U.S. into the Southern Plains with highest chances of hot temperatures over the Desert Southwest into west TX. Below average temperatures are expected in the Great Lakes region and interior New England. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis. Memphis averages 71.7 degrees for the month.



Wetter than normal weather is expected across the Lower Mississippi River Valley into  the Missouri Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Dry weather is forecast across the Great Lakes and portions of the Intermountain West. For Memphis, odds favor slightly above average rainfall, at a 37% chance, versus a 30% chance of below normal precipitation. Memphis historically averages 5.25 inches in May.

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Upper level pattern favors fall-like temperatures as we head deeper in to May

Today and Wednesday

Thanks to a slow-moving cold front, we had a cloudy start to the day with a few isolated showers this morning. Thankfully as the cold front finally sags south and out of our region, clouds will begin to clear and leave us with partly sunny skies by late afternoon. Highs will warm up into the mid-70s today but behind the cold front, winds will shift to out of the north-northwest up to 15 mph. We will continue to stay dry overnight with lows falling into the low 50s.

Weather Prediction Center's surface analysis from 7:00am this morning showing a sluggish cold front moving through the metro area. (WPC)
[Editor's Note: Allison is about to go all weather-nerdy on you. Know that long-wave and short-wave troughs are basically fronts at the upper levels of the atmosphere. A long-wave trough is like the dominant Auntee and the short-waves are her ne'er-do-well little nephews. The Auntee is best represented on a weather map by a valley in the pressure pattern that encompasses a large region. Misbehaving nephew short-waves run circles around the Auntee and serve to reinforce her general exasperation.]



Cool and windy conditions continue as a long-wave upper level trough fully situates over the eastern United States Wednesday. A quick-moving short-wave trough will move through the Ohio Valley strengthening the long-wave trough, pulling a much cooler air mass into the southeast. Thankfully, the short-wave will not bring any shower activity to the region on Wednesday. Overall, Hump Day looks very pleasant! We will have a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. Afternoon highs will be well below the nearly 80-degree average high temperature for this time of year with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s!

Tuesday morning NAM3 model pressure values at about 18,000', valid from noon on Tuesday through Thursday evening. This shows a short-wave trough moving through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday that strengthens the long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. as well as a second shortwave trough forming Thursday. (PivotalWeather.com)

Thursday - Friday

By Thursday, a weak high pressure system will build over the region as the upstream ridge in the western United States moves eastward. This will allow for much of Thursday to be dry with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs reaching into the low 70s. This will be short-lived as another short-wave trough and associated cold front at the surface moves through the southeast Thursday evening into Friday afternoon. Winds will become more southerly Thursday afternoon allowing for clouds to build back quickly throughout the evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the metro area by Thursday night, continuing for much of the night and into Friday morning with lows falling into the mid 50s. Given the lack of unstable air and fairly cool temperatures, severe weather is not expected.

Tuesday morning GFS model precipitation and surface pressure valid for Wednesday at midnight through Friday at 7:00pm. This shows another short-wave trough and associated cold front moving through, bringing showers and much cooler air to the southeast. (PivotalWeather.com)

By Friday afternoon, rain chances will diminish as winds become more northerly and possibly quite gusty. Friday will be on the chilly side, with highs only reaching up into the mid-60s. When it is all said and done, rain totals for this event will likely be between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch.

Tuesday morning GFS model showing the total accumulated rainfall through midnight Friday. (PivotalWeather.com)

Friday night, northerly winds will continue at 10-15 mph pulling in a much cooler air mass to the southeast U.S. This will keep temperatures unseasonably cool with Saturday morning lows falling into the low 40s, threatening the current record low of 44 set nearly a century ago! The average low temperature for this time of year is 59; that's just shy of what Friday's high temperatures will be!

Tuesday morning GFS model surface temperatures valid for midnight Wednesday through Saturday morning. This show the progression of temperatures and the well below average lows for Friday night into Saturday morning. (PivotalWeather.com)

Saturday - Tuesday

A much calmer pattern will be present Saturday through Monday. Saturday will be nearly a perfect day with tons of sunshine and blue sky! Cool temperatures stick around with afternoon highs only warming into the mid-60s and overnight lows falling into the mid-40s once again. Sunday will be a bit warmer with high temperatures reaching back into the low 70s and lows falling near 50. Thankfully sunshine sticks around for Sunday and Monday with a few clouds building back across the region into Monday afternoon. Cool highs continue to start off the work week with highs near 70 (though "cool" is really "ideal" given we're heading into mid May!). Tuesday will bring another isolated chance for a few showers as mostly cloudy skies return to region! 



Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Thursday, April 30, 2020

How does April 2020 stack up with past Aprils? And what is in store for May?

Over the last week we saw a decent amount of sun, as well as some rain and thunderstorms. We saw some great pictures and videos of hail on April 29th over the area, despite a lack of thunder in small showers. The temperatures stayed pretty pleasant this month, and it looks like that trend might continue as we head into May. 

As April winds down, where do we stand with respect to temperature and precipitation? Looking at the preliminary monthly climate report from NWS Memphis (below), we sit a couple degrees below normal (2.6 degrees to be exact). The precipitation total for this month is 5.57", which means we are slightly above average against our normal April amount of 5.25".

The preliminary monthly climate report from NWS Memphis. 
Friday and Saturday
Overnight lows going into Friday will drop into the low 50s under clear skies. Friday high clouds will move in as a high tops out in the upper 70s, a signal of a warming trend as we head into the weekend. The wind on Friday will be out of the southwest at about 8 mph. Friday night lows will only drop to the lower 60s. Saturday temperatures will top out in the lower 80s under partly cloudy skies and with a strong southerly wind. Saturday night lows will only drop to the mid 60s with partly cloudy skies sticking with us.

Sunday and Monday

As we move into Sunday we will again be partly cloudy, having highs top out in the low 80s, capping off a warn but dry weekend. Sunday night lows will drop into the mid 60s with a slight chance of a shower. Monday will be very similar to Sunday as it will be partly cloudy and top out in the low 80s. The only difference is that on Monday there will be a slight chance of showers all day. Overnight lows heading into Tuesday will again only get down to the mid 60s as more clouds move in.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

On Tuesday a low pressure system is forecasted to move through, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures top out near 80, making way for a cold front from the low pressure system. This cold front will bring falling temperatures overnight, into the upper 50s. Moving into Wednesday the cold front will likely bring pleasant temperatures in the low 70s along with partly cloudy skies. Wednesday night lows will likely drop all the way down to the low 50s. Heading into Friday, temperatures will again be rather pleasant as we will top out around 70 under partly sunny skies.

Day 4 image not available
This surface map is valid early Wednesday morning after a cold front moves through (Weather Predictions Center [WPC]). This cold front will be followed by a high pressure system and below normal temperatures.

May Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
As I mentioned before it looks like May will start out slightly below normal. From a new release of the monthly climate prediction from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), they are predicting around normal temperatures and slightly above average precipitation for the month.

The temperature outlook for the month of May shows near normal temperature for the month of May in Memphis. (NOAA/CPC)

The precipitation outlook for the month of May shows slightly above normal precipitation in Memphis. (NOAA/CPC)

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

A springtime pattern means several of storms in the next week

Rest of Today into Thursday

A dreary start to our Hump Day. Clouds have been on the increase today as a warm front continues to push north from the Gulf of Mexico. This will turn the winds more southerly giving us a very breezy afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 mph by tonight. Southerly wind will increase our moisture allowing for scattered showers to move in as we head into the evening time.

A low-pressure system will move eastward through the southeast bringing a cold front with showers and storms during the overnight hours. These storms may be on the stronger side with gusty winds, possible hail, and heavy downpours, but thankfully the greatest chance for severe weather will remain to the south of the metro area where more humid and unstable air will reside. Our greatest risk for a strong storm appears to be in the midnight timeframe, plus or minus an hour or two.


Behind the storms, showers will linger into Thursday morning as the low pressure system itself moves over. The additional cloud cover and continued breezy southwest wind will keep our lows fairly warm and muggy in the lower 60s. As the cold front moves on, winds will shift to a more westerly pattern but remain strong with gusts up to 30-35 mph into the afternoon. Throughout the day temperatures will not change much with afternoon highs struggling to reach 70.
Overnight European model data showing a low pressure system moving through the Mid-South Wednesday (4/22) through Thursday (4/23). (PivotalWeather.com) 

Friday

Skies will begin to partially clear and winds will calm Thursday evening. Overnight lows will fall back into the mid-60s. Into Friday, clouds will be on the increase as another system approach from the Plains. Warmer temperatures return to the region with highs in the mid-70s as winds become southerly once more. Showers will be isolated at first Friday afternoon but become increasingly more widespread by Friday evening. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms associate with the second cold front will push through the area. Some of these storms may be on the stronger side producing hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. The greatest chance for a strong storm during Friday’s event will be south of the city.

European Model 6:00am run showing a second low pressure system moving through the southeast Friday (4/24) into Saturday (4/23) morning. (PivotalWeather.com)

Saturday thru Monday

Saturday will start off as another dreary day as clouds and isolated showers linger in the morning, however, throughout the day the moisture will move out of the area giving us a mostly dry afternoon. Highs will stay cool struggling to reach 70, but thankfully mostly of us will see at least some sunshine by Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the chillier side as they fall back down near 50. Sunday looks to be very pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs continuing to stay cool in the upper 60s. We stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds into Monday with afternoon highs warming back into the lower 70s. If you are planning on doing yard work Sunday and Monday will be your best option!


Tuesday and Wednesday

The models are suggesting that another upper level trough will move through the area early next week initiating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. They are struggling to come into agreement over when exactly it will come through, but Tuesday into Wednesday seems to be our best chance. Clouds and rain chances will increase throughout Tuesday bringing more heavy rain and gusty winds. Tuesday afternoon will be warm and muggy with highs warming back into the mid-70s. Most of the shower and storm activity should move out of the area early Wednesday morning giving us a mostly pleasant afternoon with decreasing clouds and highs in the mid-70s.

The European model showing temperatures and wind from Monday (4/27)  night at midnight through Wednesday (4/29) night at midnight. (PivotalWeather.com)

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Cold weather moderates this week as rain chances increase this weekend

We experienced a wide variety of weather over the past week! Daily high temperatures varied from the low 80s to the upper 50s. We did see quite a bit of rain Sunday, from multiple rounds of rain and storms, particularly a lengthy period of heavy rain during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The total rain received on Sunday was 2.60". It didn't break the daily record, but the amount was well above average.

Thankfully we missed the worst of the storms as parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, southeast Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina saw all types of severe weather. There have been a total of 651 storm reports received by the NWS. There was a truly devastating tornado in Southern Mississippi with the worst of the damage being in Bassfield, MS. This tornado has been given a preliminary rating of an EF-4 with maximum wind gusts of 170 mph! If you would like to look at the damage it caused, here is a link to drone footage.


200412_rpts Filtered Reports Graphic
These are the filtered storm reports from the SPC from 4/12/2020.
Image
This is the tornado near Soso, MS (in southern MS). Photo credit: Connor McCrorey (@ConnorWX). This is a direct link to the tweet: https://twitter.com/ConnorWX/status/1249456589712633858.
Tuesday Night
The clouds will move out making for a clear and cold night. Much of the Memphis metro is under a Frost Advisory as temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s. A Freeze Warning is in effect for Tipton and Fayette Counties, as those areas have the highest probability of temperatures dropping as  low as 30 degrees. Bring in those tender plants or cover them up!



Wednesday
After a very cold early morning, we should be in store for a pleasant Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to rise to the low 60s with sunny skies. Winds during the day should be from the southwest at about 7 mph. Wednesday night into Thursday temperatures are expected to drop to around 40 under a clear sky. Some patchy frost is possible in rural areas.


The GFS model shows why temperatures are so cold right now. Anomalously low pressure aloft over much of the nation means cold polar air is in place at that level. Those blues, purples, and greens are showing that the pressure at 500mb (18,000') is much lower then normal. (WxBell)

Thursday and Friday

Thursday temperatures will top out around 70 under sunny skies. The breeze will be out of the south at about 10 mph. Overnight temperatures will drop to the upper 40s as some cloud cover moves in. On Friday, conditions should be partly sunny with temps in the lower 70s. There is also a slight chance of rain, but it shouldn't cause any real issues. Friday night temperatures will drop into the upper 40s with a slightly better chance of a rain shower.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday temps will top out in the upper 60s under partly sunny skies. There also still a chance for a lingering shower. Saturday night the chance of rain will increase with scattered showers possible. Sunday will be pretty similar to Saturday. Sunday temperatures will top out around 70 under mostly cloudy skies. There is a continued chance of showers, though no washouts are currently forecast for the weekend. Sunday night lows will drop to around 50 with clouds clearing a little, making for a partly cloudy night.

Monday and Tuesday

The warming trend continues with Monday's highs in the low 70s under partly cloudy skies. Overnight temperatures will drop to the lower 50s. Tuesday temperature will top out in the mid 70s under partly sunny skies.

A Look at Next Week
Using the projections from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) it looks like temperatures will probably be near normal and precipitation will probably slightly above normal. We'll be watching the mid-week period for our next round of storms.

Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
These are the probabilistic chances of temperatures being above or below normal across the United States (CPC).
Latest 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook
These are the probabilistic chances of precipitation being above or below normal across the United States (CPC).

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder