Monday, February 10, 2020

The week ahead: MORE rain, a chance of storms, and a chilly Valentines Day

What a beautiful weekend we had! Wish that weather could've hung out longer, but I guess it's best that it was nice on the weekend at least!

Monday

Unfortunately, a cold front brought another round of rainfall overnight into this morning, adding another three-quarters of an inch to an inch of rain to the overflowing gauge. As of noon, that front has now pushed just south of I-40 as it moves south and stalls over MS and AL. It'll remain there for a little more than a day, which means cooler air behind it sinks into the metro and remains locked in place with temperatures mainly in the 40s after reaching 60 degrees at noon today. It's proximity, along with upper level energy aloft, will keep skies cloudy with another round of light rainfall overnight Monday night.

The morning run of the high-res NAM3 model forecast radar from noon Monday through midnight Tuesday night. Multiple rounds of mainly light rain are expected, primarily tonight and again Tuesday PM. Heavier rain and storms remain to our south. (WxBell)

Tuesday

Tuesday will feature another cloudy day with overnight rain moving out early in the day and a brief dry lull for most of the morning and early afternoon as temperatures continue to linger in the 40s. However, by afternoon, additional light rainfall will ride the southwest jet stream up and over the area, so for the most part plan on another cool and damp day Tuesday with light rain continuing into the overnight.


Wednesday

By Wednesday morning, rain intensity will pick up a bit as the front to our south lifts back towards us and low pressure develops along it to our southwest, heading towards north MS and the Tennessee River Valley. Wednesday appears to be wet all-around as that low passes just to our east. Some rain could be heavy and thunder is also possible depending on how close the low gets to the metro.  Models are still bickering on its exact track.

The morning run of the GFS model shows the track of low pressure from 6am Wednesday through 6am Thursday. This track would keep severe weather to our southeast but bring a good deal of heavy rain on Wednesday. (WxBell)

Severe weather to our south

The good news is, as long as the low stays east of the Mississippi River as it moves northeast (which it should), we won't be in the path of any severe storms. Those across MS and parts of AL may not be as lucky with severe weather a distinct possibility on Wednesday.



Rainfall and flooding potential

By Wednesday night, the low moves away, dragging the front all the way through the region and mercifully bringing an end to the rainy pattern for a bit. Rainfall totals from last night through Wednesday night however will likely be above 3" and may approach 4" in spots. Again, fortunately, the axis of heaviest rain, where 6" or more is possible, is not too far to our south. Flooding (flash and river/stream) is likely on those areas, though we'll also see streams rise and some low-lying and urban flooding possible due to saturated ground.

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook through early Tuesday morning indicates a high risk of flooding rain to our southeast. (NWS)
Total precipitation forecast through Thursday morning by the NWS calls for 2-3" in the metro (in addition to than received in the past 24 hours), while 4-6" is likely across the Deep South. (NWS via WxBell)

Valentine's weekend

The end of the week features much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday with highs in the 40s and lows Friday and Saturday mornings in the mid to upper 20s! You might be able to stoke up the fireplace or fire pit for Valentine's Day with temps that chilly, but bundle up if you head out to your favorite romantic restaurant!

The forecast map for Valentine's morning features a massive area of cold high pressure dominating the eastern 2/3 of the country. (NWS/WPC)
Long-range prognostications show a return to above average temperatures and rainfall heading into next week once again.



Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, February 7, 2020

January 2020 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

January Climate Recap

December started the winter of 2019-2020 four degrees above average and January continued the trend, and in fact, built on it - ending 5.5 degrees above average. So, for the first two months of meteorological winter (December-January), the average temperature ranks eleventh warmest on record. Only six days in January ended below normal, most in the third week of the month. There were eleven days that reached at least 60 degrees, while only five dropped below freezing (nine less than usual).


The U.S. temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for the month of January shows well above normal temperatures across much of the nation east of the Rocky Mountains except for the Northern Plains. The Rockies and western U.S. were a mixed bag of above and below average temperatures. (WeatherBell)
January precipitation typically averages four inches, but that was also exceeded by nearly two and one-half inches, making for a warm and wet month with no snowflakes falling. There were three days that recorded more than an inch of rain and they were spaced out over the course of the month.

Thunderstorms occurred on the 10th, 11th, and 15th (coincidentally, the three days that also reached at least 69 degrees). There was one severe weather event, on the morning of the 11th, which resulted in a flurry of mainly weak tornadoes across the Mid-South as a squall line moved through the region. A total of 13 tornadoes were documented in the NWS-Memphis warning area, six of which occurred in the greater Memphis metropolitan area and MWN coverage area. These include an EF-2 that passed east of Hernando to south of Olive Branch in DeSoto County, causing the most damage, two EF-1's (one on either side of Arkabutla Lake), and EF-0's in far southwest Marshall County and southern Fayette County. Windspread wind damage from the associated line of storms also swept through the metro with about 40,000 MLG&W customers losing power as trees and a few power lines were felled.


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 46.7 degrees (5.5 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 54.7 degrees (4.9 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 38.6 degrees (6.0 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 72 degrees (11th)
Coolest temperature: 23 degrees (20th)
Heating Degrees Days: 559 (179 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 0 (1 below average)
Records set or tied: Record high minimum set on the 15th (59 degrees)
Comments: Five days recorded a low temperature at or below freezing, 9.5 days less than average for the month.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 6.44" (2.46" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 16 (6.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.80" (11th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days had rainfall exceeding one inch. The average for January is one.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/44 mph (10th)
Average wind: 8.4 mph
Average relative humidity: 72%
Average sky cover: 70%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 45.4 degrees
Average high temperature: 53.8 degrees
Average low temperature: 37.5 degrees
Warmest temperature: 70.1 degrees (11th)
Coolest temperature: 22.7 degrees (20th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.84" (automated rain gauge), 6.25" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 14
Wettest date: 2.05" (11th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: Trace
Comments: A few snow flurries fell on the morning of the 20th.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/30 mph (11th)
Average relative humidity: 79%
Average barometric pressure: 30.15 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.34 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 66%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.88 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 51%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - February 2020

The February climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the eastern and southwestern U.S. Below average temperatures are expected in the northern Great Plains. Odds favor above average temperatures for Memphis, at 39% (versus only a 28% chance of below average temperatures). Memphis averages 45.5 degrees for the month.



Wetter than normal weather is expected for the southeast U.S, as well as the northern Great Plains. Below average precipitation is forecast for the eastern Plains and California. For Memphis, odds favor very slightly above average rainfall (34% chance), which historically averages nearly 4.39 inches.

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Could it be? A snow forecast we can all get behind?

We ran a poll a couple of days ago for Groundhog Day asking whether you were ready for spring or wanted some snow. The results were very close to split among the 500 or so votes. In fact, we might have the best of both worlds on deck!

A very warm (but wet) pattern has gotten us through the first half of the week. But now that we are "post-frontal" (the cold front is shifting east of our area), cold air will mix with the next round of precipitation late Thursday, potentially bringing the snow-lovers out there something pretty to stare at out the window. For those that don't want to bother with it, anything that falls should be relatively harmless. And for those that don't want to figure out how to shuffle the kids on a school day, the impacts should be minimal enough that that won't be an issue come Friday morning! Winner winner, French toast dinner! Let's get into the details.


A cold day is in the cards for Thursday. We may start off with a little light rain in the morning with temperatures near 40 degrees. With an upper level trough approaching, cloud cover sticking around, and northerly wind, temperatures will likely remain steady all day. By mid-afternoon, temperatures aloft will begin to cool as the upper level low/trough moves closer. That trough will also serve as a trigger for the development of precipitation near our area by mid to late afternoon.

An upper level trough (the "valley" in the pressure lines) moves through the area over the next 48 hours according to the mid-day GFS model. That trough is responsible for providing the energy and cold air necessary to produce light snow Thursday evening. (WeatherModels.com)

With temperatures still likely up near 40, initial precip could be a rain/snow mix. But those cooling temperatures aloft will change precipitation over to light snow fairly quickly, despite temperatures still in the mid to upper 30s at ground level. As the sun sets, surface temperatures will cool into the mid 30s as light snow chances continue. The departures of the upper level trough by about midnight will bring precipitation to an end as temperatures approach the freezing mark in the wee hours of Friday morning. So, the high level details:

  • What: Good chance of light snow
  • When: Late afternoon into the overnight hours Thursday (~4pm-2am)
  • How much: Maybe 1/2" on non-asphalt/concrete surfaces (light dusting)
  • "Boom" forecast: 1"
  • "Bust" forecast: Flurries
The Wednesday evening run of the high-res NAM3 model, showing forecast radar between 8am Thursday and 8am Friday. Snow breaks out late in the afternoon near the Mississippi River and continues into the evening hours. (WeatherModels.com)

What impacts are we expecting? Very few. With temperatures above freezing for most, or all, of the event, most snowflakes melt on contact with the ground. I expect it could be pretty to look at in the evening in the street lights, and if it comes down hard enough we could see a dusting on elevated/exposed surfaces and outdoor objects. Roads should remain above freezing and thus will be no worse than wet, even the elevated ones. 

Low temperatures will be just below freezing Friday morning, but even the roads should stay in pretty good shape. There conceivably could be a few slick spots on elevated roads early Friday morning, but that chance is deemed to be very low given the forecast.

There remains some discrepancy between the various computer models, but nearly all produce snowflakes tomorrow evening. This should be just the kind of event that will appease some of the snow-lovers while also not interfering with the activities of those that prefer it never happen! Stay tuned to our social media channels for the latest information throughout the day Thursday.


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Spring-like weather gives way to rain and a return of cold air

Happy Groundhog Day! Phil did NOT see his shadow, so according to him we will be seeing an early spring! (With a track record of 40% over the past decade, we'll see!) It definitely felt spring-like today with plenty of sunshine and highs around 70! Sadly, this will be our last sunny day for a while. Clouds return Monday with rain chances arriving Monday night and sticking around much of the week. Our highest rain chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday as our next cold front moves through the southeast. Cool temperatures follow behind it dropping highs back into the 40s starting Wednesday.


Monday through Wednesday

A steady south to southwest wind throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday will allow for warm moist air to be advected north from the Gulf of Mexico. With this increased moisture, clouds and rain chances return. Most of the day on Monday should be dry but as more energy moves over our area, showers become more likely later in the evening. Despite the soggy appearance, afternoon highs will still be well above average in the upper 60s. Overnight temperatures will only fall into the upper 50s. The persistent cloud cover will help hold in a lot of the heat from the day. Rain chances increase overnight as the southerly wind continues pushing moisture our way, making it feel very muggy.


Tuesday morning will continue this pattern with scattered showers across the area for most of the day. Temperatures that afternoon will warm into the mid to upper 60s once again. While most of the rain on Tuesday will be driven by the Gulf moisture, the story changes slightly as we head into the evening. A low pressure system will move by to our northwest, dragging a cold front along with it. This front will lead to more shower and storm activity overnight Tuesday.
The GFS model showing surface temperatures at 6pm Tuesday in the mid 60s. (WxBell)
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a severe weather outlook for our area for Tuesday night. This puts Memphis just out of the Slight (2/5) Risk. Most of the storms will occur Tuesday night. This system's severe threat is very low; however, a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. An organized line is not expected for this event. These storms will form along the front and be very messy. The window for the severe activity will be confined to primarily Tuesday evening as cold air fills in quickly behind it.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday 02/04/20. Memphis is in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk. (NOAA/SPC)
Shower activity will continue throughout the day on Wednesday with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Cold air behind the front will quickly push into the area eliminating any severe threat for Wednesday. Since the front is moving through overnight on Tuesday, it is very likely that our high for Wednesday will occur in the morning. Temperatures will likely be in the mid 40s around lunch time and steadily fall into the upper 30s throughout the afternoon. Sadly clouds and cold showers stick around throughout the evening making Wednesday fairly dreary.

The GFS model showing surface temperatures at 3pm Wednesday near 40 in the metro. (WxBell)
Thursday through Sunday

Clouds continue throughout most of the day on Thursday with a chance at a passing shower. Thursday brings below average temperatures back to our area with afternoon highs only in the mid 40s. Clouds begin to clear out overnight with lows in the upper 30s giving you a chilly start to your Friday. By the afternoon, skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures near 50. Thankfully squeezing out a cool but pleasant end to the work week. Next weekend looks very seasonable temperature wise. Saturday and Sunday with have lows in the upper 30s with afternoon highs in the low 50s. While much of the weekend will be partly sunny, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out.


Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, January 27, 2020

Near average January weather ahead, with a bit of a drying trend?

Here is some welcome news on a Monday in late January:

(View tweet here if it's not visible above.)

The month has been wet so far, continuing a trend from, well, the last 2 years... Total rainfall has topped six inches for the month with barely more than a couple of dry days between each new bout of rain. We've got one more of those systems to deal with early this week, then it appears we may get a chance to dry out for a minute. (Though that doesn't necessarily mean days of sunshine and rainbows... it is January after all!)

Today and Tuesday

Weak high pressure ridging into the area is bringing us one of the warmer days we've had lately as sunshine this afternoon allows temperatures to climb into the the upper 50s. Should be a nice evening for a walk as long as you grab a jacket! The next low pressure system moving along the southern U.S. atmospheric railroad track arrives Tuesday night, and it'll be moving slowly. Tuesday will be back to mostly cloudy, though most of the daylight hours should be dry with highs again in the mid 50s.

Another rain-maker

Light rain arrives around the time of the homeward-bound rush hour. Look for highs in the mid 50s. Steadier (though light) rain continues Tuesday night as the mercury drops to near 40. Or, "not quite cold enough," and another opportunity wasted, according to snow-lovers. Lingering light rain or drizzle continues Wednesday on the back side of the departing system. It'll be a chilly, wet day as wind shifts to the north and temperatures remain in the 40s. Warm rain coats and waterproof gloves might be in order.

The high-res NAM3 model shows the next rain-maker moving through the Mid-South Tuesday night and Wednesday (loop from 6am Tuesday to 6pm Wednesday). Precipitation should not be heavy, but it stays just warm enough near the TN/MS line to keep the wintry precipitation to our north. (Graphic: WeatherBell)

The European model ensemble (basically, 51 slightly different runs of the Euro model) gives the Memphis area an average of about 0.20" of rain through Wednesday. No downpours, deluges, or washouts expected! (WeatherBell)

Week's end into the weekend

Thursday remains cool (mid 30s for lows to mid 40s for highs) with some high clouds still streaming overhead, but we start a new dry streak that day. How long does it last? Models are not unified in their "dryness index" as we head into the weekend, so updates to this forecast are possible, but it appears that we could have very low, maybe no, rain chances right into early next week as temperatures begin to warm a bit. By Sunday and Monday, I expect we'll see numbers closer to 60 than 50 for highs as we roll into February and Groundhog's Day!


Recapping, and a longer look ahead

So to recap - a nice afternoon today, cooling trend with more wetness Tuesday night into Wednesday, then warming slowly back up with meh rain chances Friday/Saturday. No thunder, or snow. The 8-14 day outlook for next week calls for slightly below average temperatures and near average precipitation. NOAA's outlook for the month of February leans a bit cooler than average though. Winter is not over yet!


The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week indicates slightly below average temperatures.  (Graphic: Pivotal Weather)

The Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for next week indicates near average rainfall.  (Graphic: Pivotal Weather)


The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Breviary shows areas from Memphis north in a cooler than average pattern. (Graphic: Pivotal Weather)

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Memphis, TN Annual Climate Summary for 2019

2019 Annual Recap

Memphis weather in the year 2019 will be remembered for some very wet months that led to one of the rainiest years on record, as well as fairly large temperatures swings month-to-month. Overall the year ended in the upper echelon of warm years with a 0.4 degree departure from average. Precipitation-wise, eight of the twelve months of 2019 were above average, three by more than four inches and one of those (October) setting a new monthly record. In sum, the year ended fourth wettest on record.


Month-by-month recap

The precipitation anomaly for the year started in month #1 as January recorded about 3/4" of rain above average. Temperatures also averaged a bit above normal. January also featured the only measurable snowfall for 2019, 0.2" on the 19th. The trend was more pronounced in February with warm and wet weather continuing. In fact, it was the eighth wettest February on record and featured three days with more than an inch of rain, one of those greater than two inches. The warmth early in the month, with multiple 70+ degree days was broken up by a couple of cold spells, but overall warmth. Heading into meteorological spring, the weather turned much cooler and drier relative to average. March averaged less than two degrees warmer than the preceding month with two-thirds of the days below average. Four inches of rain fell, but that is more than an inch below normal.

Heading into April, temperatures rebounded to near average while precipitation returned to above average status with almost eight inches falling for the month over eleven rain days. Heading into May, temperatures rose above average, including one record - a 73 degree low temperature on the 21st. In fact, for the second half of the month, not a single day had below normal temperatures. Precipitation was about where it is expected climatologically.

Summer was wet with the three months of June, July and August recording a total of over 21.5 inches of rain, or almost 10.5 inches above normal. June finished 5th wettest on record and July 11th wettest, while August was also above normal. Because of all the precipitation, summer was also, on average, cooler than normal. In fact, a record morning low of 62 degrees was set on July 25 - a rarity when summer mornings usually start at or above 70. August temperatures started to warm more as expected, but couldn't make up for the relative cool conditions in June and July.

Typically temperatures relax heading into September, particularly the latter half of the month, but 2019 was an anomaly as the month was the warmest on record. September typically is about seven degrees cooler than August. Not in 2019, as it actually ended 1.3 degrees warmer than the usual hottest month of the year! All but one day in September recorded a high at or above 89 degrees and there were 13 days with highs of 95 or higher, including the hottest day of the year - 100 on the 16th! Not a single day recorded below average temperatures. Part of the reason for the heat was a temporary drought that lasted throughout the month, with only 0.12" of rain for September, third driest on record.

The heat continued into the first week of October as the month started with three consecutive daily high temperature records (96, 97, and 98 degrees) before a very wet system moved through on the 6th and 7th, dropping nearly 4.5" of rain. Nearly the entire rest of the month featured below average temperatures and many more rain events. October set a record for wettest in history with almost 13" of rain, including another six and one-half inches in the last week of the month. Two daily rainfall records were broken during the month, putting the city more than 20 inches of rain above normal with two months left to go in the year.

Once the script flipped cold in mid-October, it continued into November with no days above average through the first 18. In fact, the cold was reinforced mid-month with two days featuring record lows (20 degrees on the 12th and 17 on the 13th) and a record cold high temperature of 30 degrees also on the 12th. In fact, snow flurries also occurred on both the 11th and 12th. Temperatures warmed the second half of the month, including a high of 70 on Thanksgiving Day. A decent amount of precipitation in the final third of the month brought the total closer to average, though still finishing more than an inch below a typical November.

Finally, December didn't cool off at all, with a monthly average temperature that was just shy of November's average and a mix of above and below normal days. Precipitation again finished below average with just over 4 inches recorded. Snow flurries also fell twice during the month.

A month-by-month summary of average temperatures and precipitation can be found below.


Severe weather

In 2019, the Memphis office of the National Weather Service issued 294 combined Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings in their service area (161 Severe Thunderstorm and 43 Tornado). It is notable that the combined warning number is the fewest issued by NWS-Memphis in the past 20 years (at least). The previous lowest was 250 in 2013. With respect to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, the 161 issued were also the lowest in the past 2 decades, lower than the previous record of 213 in 2013. The 43 Tornado Warnings ranked eighth fewest in the past 20 years. Also in 2019, there were 13 Tornado Watches and 9 Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center that included some portion of the Memphis service area.

The Mid-South recorded 26 tornadoes, most weak, during 2019. There were four EF-2 tornadoes, all in northeast MS, with the rest rated EF-0 or EF-1. Within the eight-county Memphis metropolitan area, there were four tornado touchdowns. Most notable was an EF-1 twister that hit southeast Memphis on October 21st. In addition, EF-0 tornadoes touched down in western Tipton County, northwest Marshall County, and southeast Tunica County. For the year, the NWS-Memphis office received 268 severe weather reports (convective) within their service area.




The following represents a statistical recap of the weather for 2019 in Memphis. Another recap of  weather across the Mid-South for 2019, produced by the National Weather Service in Memphis, will be published soon.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 63.5 degrees (0.4 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 72.7 degrees (0.7 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 54.3 degrees (0.4 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 100 degrees (September 16)
Coolest temperature: 17 degrees (November 13)

Heating degree days: 2899 (66 below average)
Cooling degree days: 2479 (221 above average)
Days at or above 90 degrees: 90 (25.7 days above average)
Days at or below 32 degrees: 46 (3.2 days above average)
Last freeze/first freeze: March 24-November 12 (233 day growing season)

Records set or tied: There was only one monthly average temperatures that placed in the top ten warmest or coldest on record. September was the warmest on record, averaging 83.5° and featuring three daily record high temperatures and an all-time record high temperature for the month. In all, seven daily warm weather records and four daily cold weather records were set in 2019. These included:
  • May 21 (73°, record high minimum)
  • July 25 (62°, tied record low)
  • September 17 (99°, record high)
  • September 18 (99°, record high)
  • September 27 (95°, tied high record)
  • October 1 (96°, record high)
  • October 2 (97°, record high)
  • October 3 (98°, record high and all-time October max. temperature)
  • November 12 (30°, record low maximum and 20°, record low)
  • November 13 (17°, record low)

Comments: After 2018 ended just a bit warmer than the 30-year climate average for temperature, 2019 ranked in the top 17% warmest (tied for 24th) in the 146-year historical record at Memphis. 90 days saw high temperatures at or above 90 degrees (tied for 11th most on record). 46 days experienced freezing or sub-freezing temperatures.

Temperatures for the year (lows/highs) are plotted in dark blue against the normals (brown), record highs (red) and record lows (light blue).  Where the dark blue extends above or below the brown indicates temperatures above or below normal, respectively.

Precipitation
Annual total: 73.65" (19.97" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 120 (12.3 days above average)
Days with 1"+ precipitation: 27 (9.6 days above average)
Wettest day: 3.39" (October 6)

Total Snowfall: 0.2" (3.6" below average)
Days with a trace or more snowfall: 8 (5.2 above average)
Days with 1" or more snowfall: 0 (1.2 below average)
Greatest snow depth (6am CST): 0

Records set or tied: The total precipitation for the year (73.65") ranks 2019 fourth wettest on record. The month of February (8.78") was the eighth wettest on record. The month of June (9.51") was the fifth wettest on record. The month of September (0.12") was the third driest on record. The month of October (12.95") was the wettest on record. Daily records included:
  • June 7 (2.80")
  • July 16 (2.28")
  • October 6 (3.39")
  • October 26 (3.01")

Comments: Overall, 2019 ended as the wettest year in the 148-year record in Memphis. 27 days recorded an inch or more of liquid precipitation; six days had more than 2" and two days recorded more than 3".


Precipitation accumulation for 2019 is plotted as the dark green line, compared with a normal year in brown. Precipitation climbed above normal early in the year (by mid-February) and remained well above average the remainder of the year. A wet summer and record wet October pushed the anomaly even higher as the year went on, ending 20" above average.

Miscellaneous

Peak wind gust: West / 67 mph (June 19)
Average wind: 7.6 mph
Average relative humidity: 70%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for monthly/daily statistical recaps for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature (data not available Sep 24-Oct 5)
Average temperature: 61.6 degrees
Average high temperature: 72.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 51.5 degrees
Warmest temperature: 100.1 degrees (September 16)
Coolest temperature: 14.6 degrees (November 13)

Heating degree days: 3329
Cooling degree days: 2131

Precipitation
Annual total: 61.31" (automated rain gauge), 68.05" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Wettest date: 3.33" (April 13) (automated gauge)

Total Snowfall: 0.2"
Days with a trace or more snowfall: 5
Greatest snow depth: 0.2" (January 20)

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South-southwest / 35 mph (March 9)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 30.05" Hg

Click here for monthly/daily statistical recaps for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy


Number of MWN forecasts produced and verified in 2019: 542
MWN average temperature error: 2.23 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 71.1%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.04 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 66.1%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours) and the numbers above represent the error/accuracy of the entire 2.5 day period. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, January 17, 2020

Sunshine on the way, but so is winter cold! First, a bit more rain...

It seems like ever time we look the forecast shows another day of soggy and warm-ish conditions. We have had over 5 inches of rain so far this January making our winter feel much more like spring! Thankfully good news is coming! Rain chances stick around Friday night and Saturday but a cold front moves through bringing sunny conditions back! Thankfully this cold front has very little instability ahead of it, so no severe weather threat (and probably not even any thunder)! Winter definitely returns with lows in the 30s and 20s, but wind chills in the teens by Monday morning. Rain chances do return late next week as another systems begins to take shape.



Friday and Saturday

Cloudy and cool for your Friday afternoon. A chance at a passing shower can't be ruled out but hopefully we can enjoy a mostly dry evening before showers move back into the area. Temperatures will fall slightly after sunset but begin warming ahead of the cold front during the overnight hours (we've seen this a few times this week now!).

Rain will begin late Friday night and continue into Saturday. Though rain chances do stick around, this system will not be a washout. Rain totals will be around a half an inch for most areas. Most of the rain activity will be out of the region by noon Saturday. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 50s but quickly drop off by late afternoon with the passing of the cold front. Overnight temperatures continue to fall towards 30 with some outlying areas seeing lows in the upper 20s Sunday morning.

The high-resolution NAM3 model forecast radar valid 12pm (noon) Saturday. (WxBell)
The high-resolution NAM3 model forecast temperatures valid 10am Saturday. (WxBell)
Sunday -Wednesday

Sunny and cold! Finally a day with zero rain chances! Sunday brings sunshine back into the forecast with afternoon highs only in the 40s. Winds shift out of the north creating very chilly conditions. Overnight temps fall into the mid 20s. Make sure to cover up any outdoor faucets and bring in any plants or animals. Monday will be our coldest day with temperatures struggling to stay above freezing and wind chills in the 20s all day. Sunshine and chilly temperatures stick around for Tuesday, but clouds begin to build back on Wednesday.

The GFS model forecast temperatures valid 8am Monday Morning. (WxBell)

Thursday - Friday

Warmer temperatures return Thursday as clouds continue to increase throughout the day. A few showers are possible but rain chances increase overnight. Friday rain returns ahead of another cold front into next weekend. Something to watch moving forward!


Paige Davide
MWN Meteorologist Intern

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder