Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Reviewing the past decade at MemphisWeather.net

As we come to the end of the 2010's and get ready to start messing up the 3rd digit when we write or type the year 201 2020, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at the last 10 years at MemphisWeather.net (MWN).

From weather website to trusted weather source

The past decade has witnessed a complete transformation of MWN. What was then (in 2009) a fairly primitive website providing some local weather information mainly for my family and friends (and their first, and maybe in a few cases second, order acquaintances) has now become a full-featured independent source of weather information for the eight-county Memphis metropolitan area reaching thousands of you routinely.

The rise of social media

It was in early 2009, now approaching 11 years ago, that MWN first appeared on Facebook and Twitter, just about a year after this blog was started. While those mediums have remained steadfast, others have come (hello IG!) and gone (sayonara Google+)! Social media has completely transformed our way of communicating with you! In fact, we're ending the decade with nearly 41,000 followers of MWN's Facebook and Twitter accounts alone!


Tweet #1! ↓



Social media nowcasting

These social platforms are now the primary way of communicating our weather information to you and allow you to just hit "reply" to get your questions answered or comments seen! The dawn of the social media age also brought about our own rendition of "wall-to-wall" severe weather coverage, called nowcasting, to a hyper-local (Memphis-centric) audience. I am proud to say that MWN was one of the first in the nation to begin providing this "second screen" weather coverage nearly a decade ago! The model has been copied or borrowed in many forms and fashions successfully all across the country. Severe weather nowcasting on MWN social media platforms continues to this day for all severe and winter weather events that affect the Memphis metro! (We're working on a few more of those winter ones! :-) )

#TeamMWN

I've been able to keep the lamps trimmed and burning on the social media side thanks to the amazing work by a team of dedicated social media interns. Employing the assistance of a revolving team of (typically) Mississippi State University meteorology students, these young people learn the ropes of practical meteorological application in the social space as they hone their academic skills in the classroom, making for well-rounded meteorologist candidates upon graduation.


Several have moved right into broadcast, private or public sector weather positions with the skills they learned at MWN in their tool belt! I'm proud of each of them for their dedication to you all, as well as the promising futures each of them have individually in their chosen career path! Thank you to all current and former members of #TeamMWN! And #HailState!



MWN mobile application

Besides social media and the full-featured website that provides most of the information we disseminate, the MWN mobile app - first released early in 2011 - provides a one-stop shop for viewing all of our content, including the most popular products from our website (like the MWN Forecast and StormView Radar) as well as all of our social media feeds. It has also gone through multiple iterations with new features and updated designs along the way. The app has proven to be a great addition to the stable of services offered by MWN. I hope that all of you reading this have it on your phones at this point! (If not, click here to learn more and download!)



Launch of Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC and StormWatch+

Also in about a month, on National Weatherperson's Day (February 5), Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC will turn 10 years old! Cirrus operates as the umbrella organization for MWN, JacksonWeather.net (MWN's regional sister site covering the rest of west TN), and StormWatch+, the severe weather alerting tool built into the MWN mobile app and also available as its own national mobile application.

StormWatch+ was deployed initially eight years ago and has gone through multiple iterations since then. In fact, the latest upgrade to the national app, version 4.0, was just released to iOS users the day after Christmas and our first Android app to hit the national market is just around the corner! We've got big plans for our apps in 2020 that we're excited to announce in the near future!


Cirrus Weather also contracts with multiple outdoor events in the Memphis area for on-site weather consulting services that are collectively attended by well over 200,000 patrons each year. These venues have chosen to ensure their guests' safety and comfort by hiring a professional to monitor local weather and serve as the meteorological subject matter expert in the execution of their operational safety plans.


MWN By the Numbers - 2019

Here are some quick facts for the year as we look towards 2020:

  • 75 - MWN Blog posts authored
  • 543 - MWN Forecasts written
  • 17 app updates released (MWN iOS/Android and StormWatch+ iOS)
  • 8 - MWN Social Media Interns (served at some point during the year)
  • 22,293 - Facebook Fans 
    • 1,155 new fans in 2019
  • 18,587 - Twitter followers 
    • 876 new followers in 2019
  • 8.9 Million Twitter post impressions

To end, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to all of you who have chosen to make MWN one of your trusted local weather sources for the Memphis area over the past decade! We look forward to making 2020, and the rest of the next decade, even better in service to all of you!



Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, December 30, 2019

Pleasant weather ahead after we celebrate the New Year?

Over the last week temperatures sat well above normal with rain Saturday into Tuesday. I know some you thought it was so not "Christmassy" for it to be 70 on Christmas Day, but at least there wasn't cold rain. This upcoming week should be rather pleasant with temperatures sitting around normal or just above. There will also be a low pressure system that will move through on Thursday, with the possibility of showers lingering until Saturday. Besides this low pressure system it should make for a bright New Year and new decade with quite nice conditions.

Image result for happy new year

New Year's Eve, New Years Day and Thursday 

Monday night we will drop all the way down to the mid 30s with clear conditions and a westerly wind. New Year's Eve should be pleasant with plenty of sun, a westerly breeze and highs right around 50 - not dissimilar to the conditions we had today. For those attending the Liberty Bowl between the Navy Midshipmen and Kansas State Wildcats, the temperature at kickoff will be around 50 and drop to the low 40s when the game finishes between 7:00pm and 8:00pm. A westerly breeze will make it feel a bit cooler. Overnight lows heading into New Year's Day will drop to the mid 30s with mostly clear skies. 



New Year's Day will be another pleasant one with highs expected in the mid 50s, a partly sunny sky, and southerly winds. Overnight heading into Thursday, the low will drop to the mid 40s with rain becoming more likely after midnight. A low pressure system will bring rain primarily affecting Thursday's activities. Thursday will top out in the mid 50s with rain throughout the day. Thursday night heading into Friday lows will remain near 50 degrees due to cloud cover and possible lingering showers.

Day 8 image not available
From the Weather Prediction Center, this is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF, or total rainfall) through Saturday afternoon, January 5th. The QPF expected for the Memphis area could be near an inch. 


Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Friday should get into the mid 50s with a chance of showers lingering behind the departing low pressure system. Friday night into Saturday lows will probably drop all the way down to the mid 30s with a chance of rain continuing. Saturday will only top out in the low 40s with a slight chance of cold rain. It'll likely be the coldest day of the forecast period. Saturday night into Sunday will drop close to 30 with clearing conditions. Sunday will be clear and sunny with a high back around 50. Sunday night lows should drop to the mid 30s with relatively clear conditions. Monday will be a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and a high near 50.

Looking ahead to the second week of 2020

Looking at the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlook, Memphis could have slightly above average temperatures and above average precipitation.

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
From the CPC, this is the 8-14 day temperature outlook showing enhanced odds of above average temperatures across the south-central U.S.
Latest 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The week 2 precipitation outlook indicates above average precipitation is likely for the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. (CPC)

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, December 23, 2019

A warm Christmas week in Memphis, plus a look at your Cotton Bowl forecast!

We're coming around to Christmas week which means lots of parties, food and family. The last week wasn't too "active" but we did have rain and storms December 16th and some rain yesterday. For most of the past week temperatures sat around or above average with some cheering and others jeering.

Knowing it's Christmas week, I know many of you want to know whats going to happen this week. Good news is that from now until later this week we should see above average temperatures and little rain chance. That will change heading into the weekend but even then rain amounts aren't expected to be too much.

Image result for christmas

Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (day after Christmas)

Tomorrow on Christmas Eve you can expect mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid 60s and no real chance of rain. Tomorrow night you can expect temperatures to only drop to the upper 40s. This is due to us expecting some high atmospheric clouds to move in called cirrus clouds. High clouds have been shown to keep some heat from radiating into space, therefore not allowing temperatures to get as low.

On Christmas Day we are again expecting some high atmospheric clouds with no rain chance and highs in the mid 60s. Wednesday night (Christmas Day night) clouds are expected to move in and keep overnight temperatures up. Overnight lows will only drop to the mid 50s. On Boxing Day it will most likely be partly sunny, with highs in the mid 60s and a very small chance of sprinkles. Overnight lows will only get down to the mid 50s due to cloud cover again capping the heat near the Earth's surface. 

Image result for christmas paradise
This is a bit of an exaggeration but temperatures will be unseasonably warm for this time of year around Christmas.


Friday, Saturday and Sunday

Friday will again be much of the same story as Thursday with partly sunny conditions, highs in the mid 60s and a slight chance of rain/showers. Friday night lows are only going to drop to the mid 50s due to cloud cover staying during those hours. Saturday is much of the same story with mostly cloudy conditions, a chance of rain/showers and highs in the mid 60s. Saturday night lows are only going to drop to around 50 with cloud cover overhead and a chance of rain. Sunday you can expect scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, with a high around 60. 

Day 5 image not available
The Quantitative Precipitation forecast (QPF) for Saturday evening through Monday shows that rain totals will probably be around an inch. (NOAA/WPC)

Christmas Weather History

Snow and Memphis don't mix. Some of you may have seen the Christmas Day Weather History Blog posted December 21st. The modern record data for Memphis began in 1875 and only 11 times has a trace amount of snow or more fallen on Christmas Day. Officially, the National Climatic Data Center considers a city to have a “White Christmas” if at least one inch of snowfall is on the ground on Christmas morning, no matter when that snowfall occurred. A "White Christmas" has only occurred eight times since 1875. Last, our historical probability of a White Christmas in Memphis is a whopping 3%! As you can see we don't get very lucky when it comes to White Christmases in the Memphis area. If you wish to read more about the Christmas Weather history click the link here.

Will we cool down after New Years?

Some will moan and groan over this while others will cheer it on, but the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting above average temperatures and slightly below average precipitation for the week of December 31st to January 6th. We still could see a cool down the weekend after Christmas if the low pressure system bringing a passing cold front comes to fruition for the area. 

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC temperature outlook for December 31st to January 6th.
Latest 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
CPC precipitation outlook for December 31st to January 6th.

Cotton Bowl Forecast

As you likely know, the Memphis Tigers football team is chasing down one more win this weekend, this time in a New Year's 6 bowl game - the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX! Some of you might be headed that way after Christmas, so here's what to expect.


If you are driving to Dallas on Thursday, expect fall-like conditions with partly sunny skies and dry weather. Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s with a high Thursday afternoon in the Big D near 70 degrees! Friday will bring a chance of showers as the system approaching Memphis this weekend from the west moves closer to Dallas. Rain chances are in the 30-50% range Friday with warm temperatures - morning lows in the lower 50s and a high in the upper 60s.

For gameday, the good news is the AT&T Stadium has a dome! I expect dry conditions and lower 70s inside, but wet conditions out! There's a high likelihood of rain and perhaps a few Texas thunderstorms. Temperatures will peak in the mid 60s after morning tailgate temps in the mid 50s. I also expect the Tigers to heat up the scoreboard and come out with the biggest win in school history!


For your drive home on Sunday, it should be mainly dry, but models diverge by this point so don't be surprised if you encounter some showers, particularly the closer you get to Memphis. Temperatures will be cooler, but mild. Expect Sunday morning lows in the Dallas to be in the mid 40s, with 50s along most of your drive.

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, December 21, 2019

Christmas Day weather history for Memphis


Undoubtedly one of the most common questions meteorologists get during the holiday season: “Any chance of a White Christmas this year?” That is no less true here in the Mid-South where a significant snowfall at any point in the winter season can be a unique (and disruptive!) event. Fortunately, thanks to a lengthy modern weather record available for Memphis that dates back to 1875, we have a pretty good idea just how likely a White Christmas is, at least statistically speaking. As you'll see below, and as you were already expecting, the odds are not in snow lovers’ favor!

Before jumping ahead to our chances of a White Christmas, here are some temperature statistics for Christmas Day in Memphis, thanks to data compiled by NWS Memphis and the National Climatic Data Center. The coldest Christmas Day in 142 years of records was in 1983 as a major Arctic air outbreak was gripping much of the nation. The high in Memphis that day was a mere 16 degrees after a bone-chilling morning low of 0! No snow that day, though it was plenty cold enough to support it!

High/low temperature map Christmas morning 1983. Brutal cold dominated the nation along/east of the Rockies except south Florida.
On the flip-side, the warmest Christmas Day in the records was in 1889 where the temperature reached a balmy 76 degrees after a mild low of just 63, a month that ended up by far the warmest December in Memphis history. When you average it out over 140+ years of records, a seasonable Christmas Day isn't too bad - with a high temperature of 48 degrees and a low near 33 degrees and skies that average partly cloudy to partly sunny at worst.

In terms of any type of precipitation, measurable amounts (0.01” or more) have fallen on Christmas Day 38 times. The vast majority of those years featured just liquid rainfall in mainly light amounts, but one major soaker occurred in 1987 when 4.24” of rainfall was reported at Memphis, following an equally soggy Christmas Eve. Some Mid-South residents spent that Christmas dealing with flooding, the hardest hit of those in West Memphis, AR where cleanup was still underway after a destructive F3 tornado just 11 days earlier on December 14. There have been nine times that more than an inch of rain has fallen on Christmas Day, most recently in 2015 (1.61"). Sleet or freezing rain has been reported on Christmas Day a handful of those times, but just trace or light amounts.

Now the statistic you most want to know. Just how likely (or unlikely!) is a White Christmas in Memphis? The answer definitely lies on the “unlikely” side of the equation; in fact it’s more appropriate to label a White Christmas in Memphis as exceptionally rare. Only once in over 140 years of records has measurable snowfall occurred. That was in 1913 when 3.5” of the white stuff made for the sole exception to the rule we still consider today. However, there have been several other years where snowflakes have been seen in the Memphis skies on Christmas Day but with no accumulation. The most recent was in 2012, a year where Memphis just barely missed an all-out blizzard that hit parts of Arkansas on Christmas Night, with around an inch of snow falling the morning after Christmas in Memphis. In fact, during the four-year span from 2009-2012, snow flurries fell three times on Christmas Day!

Listing of all recorded snowfalls on Christmas Day at Memphis International Airport

Officially, the National Climatic Data Center considers any city to have a “White Christmas” if at least one inch of snowfall is on the ground on Christmas morning, no matter when that snowfall occurred. Using this definition, Memphis does have a few additional years it can add to that list. Those include 1962, 1963, 1998, and 2004, in addition to the 1913 snowfall that occurred on Christmas Day. 2004 is likely the most remembered as the city had around 2” of a sleet and snow mixture covering the ground following a winter storm on December 22. Long-timers of the Memphis area may even better remember the historic Memphis snow of December 22, 1963. 10” of that 14.3” snowfall total still lay on the ground that Christmas morning!
Official "White Christmases" in Memphis, which had at least 1" of snow on the ground.

NCDC's "White Christmas" probabilities for the US (greater than 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning)
When considering the NCDC criteria, the odds of a White Christmas in Memphis - with at least 1" of snowfall on the ground - end up just above 3%. Slightly better than the 0.7% odds if you only consider measurable snowfall on Christmas Day itself! Either way, clearly the odds don't fall on your side if you're looking for a White Christmas and want to spend the holiday in Memphis. Perhaps one Christmas soon we'll be able to make a new exception to the rule! Until then, average expectations for any given year would indicate a cool, but not cold, Christmas Day and at best modest chances of precipitation, which almost always falls in liquid form.

Top Image is "Graceland Christmas" by Thomas Kinkade, borrowed from artofthesouth.com.

Blog originally authored by MWN Intern Kevin Terry
Updated by MWN Meteorologist Erik Proseus

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, December 20, 2019

Comparing Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) and StormWatch+ Alerts

The wireless industry, Federal Communications Commission (FCC), and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) now disseminate Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) to cell phone users across the nation.  The National Weather Service (NWS) utilizes WEA to push select extreme weather bulletins using this platform.  WEA, also known as Commercial Mobile Alert System (CMAS) or Personal Localized Alerting Network (PLAN), is a national emergency alert system to send concise, text-like messages to users’ WEA-capable mobile devices.  Along with severe weather alerts, other messages that will be sent as Imminent Threat Alerts include natural disaster notices, such as in the event of an earthquake.  In addition to Imminent Threat Alerts, AMBER Alerts will be sent via WEA, as well as Presidential Alerts.

WEA Basics

  • Users are automatically enrolled in the program, but can opt out of all alerts except Presidential Alerts
  • Alerts will only be sent to WEA-capable devices (most phones released in the past few years)
  • Carriers representing more than 97% of cell phone users are represented
  • Mobile users are NOT charged to receive these messages
  • Message will appear similar to text messages, though they utilize more robust delivery technology than traditional text messages that is not susceptible to network congestion
  • Alerts will arrive on your device with a distinct tone and vibration which is different from a standard text message
  • Alert messages will be sent to those within a targeted area (individual cell towers can be programmed to send a specific alert), unlike text messages which are not location aware
  • Though the messages are targeted, your location is not "tracked." An alert to a particular area will be delivered to all capable devices within that area, regardless of where the device originates or it's "home" area (i.e., someone from Boston traveling in Dallas will receive any severe weather alerts for Dallas while he is in the affected area)
  • Messages will be limited to 90 characters (though an expansion is planned in early 2020)

Weather alerts sent via WEA (may vary by area)

  • Tsunami Warning
  • Tornado Warning
  • Extreme Wind Warning
  • Flash Flood Warning
  • Hurricane Warning
  • Typhoon Warning
  • Blizzard Warning
  • Ice Storm Warning
  • Lake Effect Snow Warning
  • Dust Storm Warning




While this sounds like a direct (and free) competitor to Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC's SW+ Alerts service, SW+ Alerts actually has several distinct and important advantages over the WEA system.  These are outlined below.


Benefits of StormWatch+ over WEA


  • Delivery method
    • WEA - SMS-like text message
    • SW+ Alerts - Push notification with link to full-featured content in app
  • Weather alert types
    • WEA - Limited set of high-end warnings, no watches
    • SW+ Alerts - Expanded list of warnings, advisories, and watches
  • User selection of alerts
    • WEA - All on/off (except Presidential alerts)
    • SW+ Alerts - User controls individual alert types, quiet time, and vacation stop
  • Location(s) monitored
    • WEA - current location only
    • SW+ Alerts - 5 user-defined locations anywhere in the U.S., as well as GPS-based location alerts for use while traveling
  • Area warned
    • WEA - entire county + "bleed over" if cell tower near county line
    • SW+ Alerts - Only within NWS warning polygon
  • Reliability
    • WEA - fairly reliable but statistics not available
    • SW+ Alerts - proven based on extensive use in all weather types (well above 99% reliability)
  • Availability
    • WEA - all recent iOS/Android smartphones
    • SW+ Alerts - all iOS/Android smartphones and tablets
  • Additional content
    • WEA - none
    • SW+ Alerts - local radar, forecast, current conditions, graphical depiction of warning + full text of the alert

For more information on SW+ Alerts+ please visit www.StormWatchPlus.com

For more information on Wireless Emergency Alerts, refer to these sources:

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Black ice and heavy frost contribute to major rush hour headaches

Nearly ideal conditions for heavy frost and black ice developed early this morning, resulting in massive traffic problems, particularly on bridges and overpasses. So what were the meteorological conditions that resulted in extra long commutes, and plenty of damaged vehicles?

Screenshot of Google traffic data from 7:50am Wednesday
There are several potential causes for black ice on the roadways. You're likely familiar with most of them, but in general you simply need moisture on road surfaces that drops below freezing. The factors that result in the freezing on the roads are the tricky part, as major thoroughfares are warmer than the air temperature just above them.

Causes of black ice

Clearly falling wintry precipitation on the roads will result in icy surfaces, but black ice occurs in the absence of precipitation - and it appears to be wet - which is why it can catch us off-guard. Black ice can form when winter precipitation melts during the day, leaving wet surfaces as temperatures fall below freezing overnight. This is particularly true for puddles and shady areas. Standing water from previous rainfall can also clearly freeze, resulting in icy surfaces, especially on bridges and overpasses. Neither of these were the primary cause of icy roads this morning though, though there were some patchy areas of wetness from Tuesday that simply froze over.



What happened this morning

The other scenario that can occur, and what likely caused most of the issues early this morning, was an ideal scenario for heavy frost that in this case also affected elevated roadways. Precipitation over the previous couple of days resulted in saturated ground, providing ample ground-based moisture to be susceptible to a freeze. As clouds moved out right before sunset Tuesday afternoon, there was no time for evaporation to take place, so the low-level moisture remained in place. In addition, wind was very light - another favorable scenario for frost, dew and fog depending on the temperature and moisture profile.

Rainfall on Monday into early Tuesday that contributed to frost formation Wednesday (NWS via WxBell)

What made it worse?

Finally, on most nights the frost process doesn't start until well into the night, providing only a handful of hours in which frost forms before warming begins after sunrise. Yesterday, temperatures were already near freezing by about 6pm after a high only in the 30s. If you went out last evening, you may have noticed frost already forming not long after sunset, by 8-9pm! That meant that the frost formation process continued all night long, about 12 hours. The longer frost is allowed to form, the thicker and heavier it becomes.

The effects of heavy frost today

So, with little traffic overnight to keep roads warm and frost formation occurring all night long, not only was everything white when we awoke this morning, but the elevated roadways (that don't have warmer earth just below them to keep them warm) also started accumulating frost. Frost is ice! With a bit of traffic early this morning, the tires warm the frost enough to melt it, but the air temperature freezes it up again - creating black ice! As more and more unaware drivers travel on the thin layer of ice as rush hour approaches, the probability of slipping and sliding increases with traffic congestion and wrecks start happening, which leads to chain reactions.



So, our clues to potential issues as early as last night were the early formation of frost and the forecast of nearly ideal conditions (light to calm wind, clear skies, and temperatures below freezing) all night long. Those conditions could manifest themselves in either heavy frost, freezing fog, or a combination of the two. Either can create real headaches for commuters! In fact, we called it out last night at 9pm, though we didn't expect it to be as bad as it got!

Looking ahead, we'll need to watch Thursday morning carefully as well. Though sunshine today will help warm temperatures into the 40s and get the evaporation process going, meteorological conditions again favor heavy frost tonight. I don't expect to see a repeat of this morning though as we'll have fewer hours below freezing and a little less ground-based moisture.


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

A much calmer week ahead plus a peek at what Christmas Day will hold!

A much calmer week ahead plus a peek at what Christmas Day will hold!

The past week has been anything but calm! We have had thunderstorms to snow flurries with temperatures ranging from 20s to almost 70!


Thankfully we have a much calmer pattern setting up for the coming week. The Southeast will begin a warming trend with mostly above average temperatures starting this weekend through perhaps the remainder of December. The average for this time of year is in the lower 50s meaning here in Memphis we will probably be seeing days with afternoon highs in the lower 60s.



Tuesday Night to Thursday

Earlier this morning we were lucky enough to see a few flurries! This was due to a little leftover moisture mixed with frigid air in the upper levels. This afternoon temperatures struggle to reach 40 but the remaining cloud cover will begin to move out. Tonight temperatures fall quickly into the 20s with overnight lows in the upper 20s. Some low lying areas may experience temperatures in the mid-20s just before sunrise on Wednesday. Throughout the day on Wednesday temperatures warm back up into the 40s by the afternoon. Lots of sunshine on Wednesday and into Thursday make mid-week chilly and bright.

Forecast Morning Temperatures on Wed. 4am (NWS) 
Forecast Afternoon Temperatures on Wed. 4pm (NWS) 

Friday and Saturday

Out the door temperatures for Friday will still be in the 20s but afternoon highs will finally be back into the lower 50s. Clouds return on Friday, starting off the weekend with a mostly cloudy and dreary day. There is an isolated chance at a shower on Friday afternoon, but rain chances increase slightly on Saturday. Overall accumulation will be very low and it is possible that some of us will not see any showers at all. Despite the lingering clouds and rain chance, Saturday’s temperatures will be in the mid 50s with overnight lows in the upper 30s.

Euro Forecast Cloud Cover Valid Friday Morning 7am (WeatherBell)

Sunday and Monday

Sunday and Monday continue the warming trend with afternoon highs in the upper 50s nearing 60 on Monday. Clouds decrease on Sunday leaving the start of the week very sunny. Overnight lows will be around 40 making the mornings chilly but thankfully not frigid! These seem to be the start of our above average trend but sunshine and 60s are hard to beat!

Way too early look at Christmas

It looks like Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are looking pretty nice! It is over a week away so we will have to keep an eye on if things change but for now very nice weather ahead for December the 25th! Above average temperatures will be seen across the southeast giving us a high around 60. Rain (and snow) chances look to be minimal giving Christmas Day a decent dose of sunshine but some high clouds are possible throughout the day ahead of our next system! Despite the increasing clouds lets hope Christmas will be Merry and Bright!



Paige Davide
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder