Sunday, October 17, 2021

Chilly nights, nice warm afternoons - fall is finally here!

If you’ve been tired of the summerlike heat, I’m sure you really enjoyed this past weekend! The good news is that nice weather looks to be sticking around all through the week ahead. The longer, chilly nights, and shorter, cooler days will also help to accelerate the changing colors of the foliage. Peak fall colors are not far away now! 


Nice and cool to start off the week

The gorgeous weather of the weekend looks to continue right on into the new work week. We’ll have a chilly start Monday morning in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 30s possible once again in rural areas. In fact, a Frost Advisory is in effect for much of west TN except counties bordering the Mississippi River. So Fayette County could see temperatures into the upper 30s with patchy frost.

A Frost Advisory (blue) is in effect for Fayette County in the metro tonight.

We’ll warm up nicely in the afternoon into the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. A deck of clouds looks like it will slide just south of the immediate metro tomorrow afternoon, and for the south side of town and our MS counties we could see a bit more in the way of afternoon cloud cover. Otherwise, expect a mainly sunny day. Any clouds should quickly clear off for Monday night, letting our temperatures fall into the mid to upper 40s. 

Slightly warmer/more humid with a chance of showers mid-week

Tuesday begins a warming trend that looks to continue through Thursday. Tuesday we top out in the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies, although we could see a few high level clouds throughout the day. Wednesday looks to be the warmest and also the most humid day of the forecast, with a high approaching 80 degrees in the afternoon and a south breeze bringing in modified Gulf moisture once again. Don’t worry fall-lovers! The return of the humidity will be very brief and it won't be quite as high as it was last week. Another trough (dip in the jet stream that tends to bring cooler temperatures) will help to cool us back down and dry us out. 

Dewpoints on Thursday morning as predicted by the European model. A sharp drop in dewpoints is expected behind a cold front which will push through early Thursday. (WeatherBell)

As we head into Wednesday night, an approaching cold front will increase chances of showers. Any showers should be fairly light in nature and won’t last long. These will taper off by early Thursday morning with rain amounts looking fairly minimal, up to a tenth of an inch possible. 

The GFS model rainfall amounts for Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. Since the front arrives early Thursday morning, it will have very little warm air to work with to pop up heavy downpours. Rain amounts look very light. (WeatherBell)

After showers end, winds will shift out of the northwest once again and will usher back in much more comfortable dewpoints and temperatures. An upper level trough over the east central US will help to keep the nice weather around through the weekend.

An upper level trough over the central and eastern U.S. as shown by the Euro model on Saturday. This keeps us nice and cool for next weekend! (WeatherBell)

Beautiful fall weather returns to end the week

Thursday looks very nice and dry once again, with skies clearing throughout the day and a high in the mid 70s. Lows take a tumble back into the low 50s or upper 40s for Thursday night. Friday and Saturday’s forecasts look nearly identical, with highs in the low 70s and lots of sunshine and dry air. Lows will be in the upper 40s to right around 50 degrees. A warming trend looks to begin again by Sunday, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. Get out and enjoy the nice week of weather! Very few entire weeks during the year have a forecast this pleasant!



(Too-)Early Halloween outlook

As of right now, it’s looking like Halloween will feature above average temperatures. However, the average high on Halloween is only 69 degrees, so above average shouldn’t be too bad! We’ll be able to fine-tune the Halloween forecast as we get a bit closer.

The temperature outlook for Halloween week with odds favoring a warmer than normal week. (NWS/CPC)

Christian Bridges
MWN Intern

Farewell to an MWN intern

[Editor's Note]
At the end of this week, we will bid adieu to #TeamMWN intern Margo Altshuler, who started with MWN just over a year ago. Margo has been a dedicated addition to the team and has used the opportunity to learn and grow, besides serving you all well on our Facebook and Twitter channels. I am sad to see her depart, but she's working hard to start lining up post-graduate opportunities and finish off her senior year in Broadcast Meteorology at Mississippi State strong! Thank you Margo for allowing me the pleasure to know you and help you on your journey! #HailState /EP

Here are a few remarks from her:

Dear MWN readers, I would like to take a moment and thank you all for allowing me to give the Memphis metro the weather for now 13 months. These past 13 months have gone by so quick its hard to remember what it was like when I first began. I would like to thank my co-workers for helping me when I needed a hand and for just being some of my now closest friends. I would like to especially thank Erik for giving me this wonderful opportunity to be one of his interns. He has helped me grow so much and helped increase my knowledge in meteorology. He is an amazing mentor and very charismatic for the city of Memphis, and I would not have wanted anyone else as a boss. Thank you MWN for everything! /MA

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunday, October 10, 2021

September 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

September Climate Recap

A hot August partially translated into September with high temperatures routinely in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. However, with low humidity values, morning lows were generally in the 60s, resulting in below average temperatures for the first third of the month. The middle of the month saw slightly above average temperatures before a cool stretch in the third week of the month. Warm weather returned to end the month. Overall, high temperatures ended slightly below average and low temperatures were slightly above average. Typically September has about ten days that reach 90 degrees, but there were only four days that reached 90 this year.

Dry conditions in August also continued into September with less than one tenth of an inch officially recorded through the 17th. The second half of the month was closer to normal, though the entire month, with just over two inches of rain, ended an inch below average. There was no severe weather during the month and no warnings were issued.


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 75.9 degrees (0.1 degrees below average) 
Average high temperature: 85.5 degrees (0.5 degrees below average) 
Average low temperature: 66.2 degrees (0.3 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 91 degrees (13th) 
Coolest temperature: 52 degrees (23rd) 
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (7 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 334 (1 below average) 
Records set or tied: None
Comments: There were only four days with high temperatures above 90 degrees, which is 6.2 below average for September.

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 2.03" (1.00" below average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (1.9 days above average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.74" (21st) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days recorded precipitation of more than an one-half inch, while September averages 1.8 days.

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: North/30 mph (22nd) 
Average wind: 6.3 mph 
Average relative humidity: 69% 
Average sky cover: 40% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 72.8 degrees 
Average high temperature: 85.1 degrees 
Average low temperature: 63.1 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 90.6 degrees (4th) 
Coolest temperature: 49.4 degrees (23rd) 
Comments: None 

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 2.10" (automated rain gauge), 2.20"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 0.96" (14th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: None

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: Northeast/19 mph (22nd)
Average relative humidity: 80% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.98 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.
 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.72 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 76% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.61 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.
 

Climate Outlook - October 2021

The October climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for virtually all of the United States from the Rocky Mountains east to the Atlantic, with the highest probability centered on the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Slightly below average temperatures are forecast in the coastal Pacific Northwest. Odds favor above average temperatures for Memphis with a 47% chance of above average temperatures versus a 20% chance of below average conditions. The average temperature for October is 64.6 degrees, nearly twelve degrees below the September average.



Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Additional above average precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest. Below average precipitation is forecast for New England. For Memphis, odds favor above average precipitation (39%) versus a 28% chance of below average precipitation. Rainfall historically averages 3.98 inches in October.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info! 
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder