Saturday, November 17, 2018

Recap of the November 14 snow event and a look at Thanksgiving week

The first winter weather event of the 2018-2019 season occurred on Wednesday as a potent upper level low moved over the Mid-South. Snowfall totals pretty well lined up with projections, as shown by the graphic and snow totals list below. The heaviest precipitation occurred over northwest TN and northeast AR, while the immediate metro saw amounts from 1/4-3/4" of snow that melted away on Thursday. The 0.6" at Memphis International Airport was the greatest November snow total since November 7, 1991.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
753 AM CST THU NOV 15 2018

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS REPRESENTING THE TOTAL
AMOUNTS AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO COUNTY, STATE, AND LOCAL OFFICIALS,
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.
THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/MEMPHIS

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

ARKANSAS

...CRAIGHEAD COUNTY...
   JONESBORO              2.0  1100 PM 11/14  911 CALL CENTER         
   4 N JONESBORO          1.8   600 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   LAKE CITY              1.5  1045 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            

...GREENE COUNTY...
   6 W PARAGOULD          1.5   947 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   2 SSE PARAGOULD        1.0   700 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...POINSETT COUNTY...
   HARRISBURG             2.0   717 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            

MISSISSIPPI

...BENTON COUNTY...
   1 NE ASHLAND           0.3   700 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...COAHOMA COUNTY...
   3 SW CLARKSDALE        0.6   700 AM 11/15  COCORAHS                

TENNESSEE

...BENTON COUNTY...
   1 NNE BIG SANDY        1.5   816 PM 11/14  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   10 S CAMDEN            1.5   710 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   CAMDEN                 1.3   744 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   BRUCETON               1.5   736 PM 11/14  AMATEUR RADIO           
   4 SE CLARKSBURG        1.3   800 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   CEDAR GROVE            1.0   500 PM 11/14  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ATWOOD                 1.0  1000 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            

...CHESTER COUNTY...
   4 W HENDERSON          1.0   548 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...DYER COUNTY...
   DYERSBURG              1.0   628 PM 11/14  PUBLIC                  

...FAYETTE COUNTY...
   6 NW WHITEVILLE        2.0   200 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   10 N SOMERVILLE        1.1   630 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   3 W CENTER POINT       0.5   655 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...GIBSON COUNTY...
   MEDINA                 1.5   747 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   TRENTON                0.8   819 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            

...HARDEMAN COUNTY...
   WHITEVILLE             0.8   411 PM 11/14  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...HENRY COUNTY...
   PARIS                  1.5   745 PM 11/14  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...MADISON COUNTY...
   10 NE JACKSON          2.5   508 PM 11/14  PUBLIC                  
   5 N JACKSON            1.5   650 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   6 SSE JACKSON          1.3   730 PM 11/14  COCORAHS                
   JACKSON                1.0   422 PM 11/14  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   BEMIS                  0.8   919 PM 11/14  SOCIAL MEDIA            

...OBION COUNTY...
   UNION CITY             1.8   837 PM 11/14  PUBLIC                  

...SHELBY COUNTY...
   3 ENE WHITEHAVEN       0.6   600 PM 11/14  OFFICIAL NWS OBS        
   3 NE BARTLETT          0.5   600 PM 11/14  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   3 N BARTLETT           0.3   512 PM 11/14  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   4 SE GERMANTOWN        0.3   502 AM 11/15  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   2 SW CORDOVA           0.3   800 PM 11/14  OFFICIAL NWS OBS        

...WEAKLEY COUNTY...
   MARTIN                 1.2   915 PM 11/14  PUBLIC                  


...PRELIMINARY SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS SORTED BY MAGNITUDE...

LOCATION                      SNOWFALL    COMMENTS                   
                               IN/S/

10 NE JACKSON TN                2.5        508 PM 11/14/2018         
HARRISBURG AR                   2.0        717 PM 11/14/2018         
JONESBORO AR                    2.0       1100 PM 11/14/2018         
6 NW WHITEVILLE TN              2.0        200 PM 11/14/2018         
4 N JONESBORO AR                1.8        600 AM 11/15/2018         
UNION CITY TN                   1.8        837 PM 11/14/2018         
BRUCETON TN                     1.5        736 PM 11/14/2018         
1 NNE BIG SANDY TN              1.5        816 PM 11/14/2018         
PARIS TN                        1.5        745 PM 11/14/2018         
LAKE CITY AR                    1.5       1045 PM 11/14/2018         
5 N JACKSON TN                  1.5        650 AM 11/15/2018         
MEDINA TN                       1.5        747 PM 11/14/2018         
10 S CAMDEN TN                  1.5        710 PM 11/14/2018         
6 W PARAGOULD AR                1.5        947 PM 11/14/2018         
CAMDEN TN                       1.3        744 PM 11/14/2018         
4 SE CLARKSBURG TN              1.3        800 PM 11/14/2018         
6 SSE JACKSON TN                1.3        730 PM 11/14/2018         
MARTIN TN                       1.2        915 PM 11/14/2018         
10 N SOMERVILLE TN              1.1        630 AM 11/15/2018         
4 W HENDERSON TN                1.0        548 AM 11/15/2018         
CEDAR GROVE TN                  1.0        500 PM 11/14/2018         
2 SSE PARAGOULD AR              1.0        700 AM 11/15/2018         
DYERSBURG TN                    1.0        628 PM 11/14/2018         
JACKSON TN                      1.0        422 PM 11/14/2018         
ATWOOD TN                       1.0       1000 PM 11/14/2018         
TRENTON TN                      0.8        819 PM 11/14/2018         
BEMIS TN                        0.8        919 PM 11/14/2018         
WHITEVILLE TN                   0.8        411 PM 11/14/2018         
3 ENE WHITEHAVEN TN             0.6        600 PM 11/14/2018         
3 SW CLARKSDALE MS              0.6        700 AM 11/15/2018         
3 W CENTER POINT TN             0.5        655 AM 11/15/2018         
3 NE BARTLETT TN                0.5        600 PM 11/14/2018         
3 N BARTLETT TN                 0.3        512 PM 11/14/2018         
4 SE GERMANTOWN TN              0.3        502 AM 11/15/2018         
2 SW CORDOVA TN                 0.3        800 PM 11/14/2018         
1 NE ASHLAND MS                 0.3        700 AM 11/15/2018         

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, a generally drier and more seasonal pattern takes over. The main precipitation concern is scattered showers mainly during the night on Sunday into Monday. Thanksgiving should be dry and pleasant for walking off all those calories! Black Friday shoppers won't freeze at Friday morning doorbusters, with moderate temperatures into the holiday weekend. The dry pattern could slip away though with rain projected next weekend.


The National Blend of Models temperature output for Memphis for the coming 10 days features generally seasonal conditions.
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

#Novembrrr continues - decent snow chance on Wednesday

UPDATE: 8:00pm 

Based on the latest model data, there is a low risk of a bit of mixed wintry precipitation (freezing rain, sleet, or snow) in the morning between about 7-10am. We'll be watching this closely, but be aware of this during the morning rush. Most of this mix should occur southwest in the metro in AR, but it 's worth mentioning.

Also, the light precipitation overnight Wednesday night, mainly after midnight, could also mix with light freezing drizzle. If this were to occur, even the veyr small amount that would occur could quickly slick up bridges and overpasses Thursday morning. Stay tuned!



If you are wondering if we skipped fall and went straight to winter this year, I can't blame you. 

We don't typically deal with multiple snow threats in the same week in the fall. But here we are. After a brief round this morning (most of you were sleeping and missed it, but the airport officially reported light snow for one hour between 1-2am), we're looking at a more favorable setup on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Typically cold air invading behind a front as precipitation moves out is not the optimal way to get much snow. The timing is rarely right for more than flurries.

However, a strong upper level low moving overhead with cold air in place? Now we're talking. That is the scenario for the next 48 hours or so. See the loop below as a strengthening low pressure system (the bowling ball sporting the flaming hot Cheetos livery) as it moves basically directly overhead.

An developing upper level low will move directly overhead the Mid-South on Wednesday night per all model solutions. This loop is taken from the Tuesday morning run of the GFS model. (WeatherModels.com)

So what can we expect in the Memphis metro? 

1) The cold air will stick around. Temperatures remain in the 30s (mostly the lower half) through today, tonight (lows will be near 30), and tomorrow (when temperatures should get back to just above freezing for the afternoon hours).

2) A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the metro. This means that expected winter weather could cause significant inconvenience, but won't rise to the level required for a warning (i.e., heavy snow, sleet, or freezing rain with widespread impacts).



2) Light snow could begin as early as mid- to late-morning Wednesday. The initial stages of the precipitation should be very light as moisture is drawn north ahead of the low. There's a possibility of some light sleet or rain mixing in initially, but I'm expecting most precipitation to be snow.

3) The steadiest snow will be mid-afternoon through evening (i.e., 3-9pm or so). As the upper low moves into the area, enhanced lift will combine with the arrival of the coldest air aloft to produce steady precipitation. This is also the best chance for any accumulation.

4) Accumulation could be around an inch, perhaps more north of the city. During that window mentioned above, we could see an inch of wet snow on grassy or bare ground and exposed surfaces in the immediate metro. Areas just north and west, in northwest TN and northeast AR, could see a few inches of snow. The best data we have available (it's sparse in the metro) suggests that pavement and sub-surface temperatures are fairly warm still: 40s to low 50s. That should keep paved surfaces from accumulating much, if at all. I would still be cautious on the elevated roadways, especially after dark.

Graphic created by NWS-Memphis early Tuesday morning. This information is subject to change.

5) Light snow or flurries will continue into the overnight hours. As the low pulls by to our north, the precipitation will move north with it, leaving behind the possibility of additional very light snow or maybe just flurries overnight. No additional overnight accumulation is anticipated at this time.

6) Subfreezing temperatures early Thursday could result in some travel headaches. Depending on how much precipitation we actually receive and the wetness of the pavement, temperatures that drop to near 30 Thursday morning could result in some slick spots. We won't know that for sure this early, but keep it in the back of your mind. By mid-morning, temperatures should be back above freezing.

7) Warmer days are ahead! Highs Saturday could reach 60°.



We'll have the latest information on our social media channels throughout the event and of course the MWN Forecast will also have the latest official forecast from us. Links are below. Plan ahead, stay safe, and I'll get back to working on patching the #SnowDome.


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder