Friday, August 10, 2018

Warmer weather returns; low rain chances persist

Rain output from the recent stalled front under-performed the past few days. Don't worry rain wanters; we have more shots at showers and storms over the next several days, after today.

Today and Tonight

With that stalled front moving out of here, our skies will be clearing out today. With the return of sunshine, temps will be back on the rise, topping off around 90. As we move into the afternoon, some leftover energy from the exiting front, combined with today's heat, could produce a few isolated storms that last into the early evening; however, most will be remaining dry. Tonight, any storms that could develop will end early on and skies finish clearing out. Despite the clear skies, temps tonight only drop to 72. Sorry, no 60s.

Saturday and Saturday Night

If you're wanting to pull off some outdoor activities this weekend absolutely rain free, Saturday morning is going to be your best bet. Clouds gradually trickle in throughout the day and a very weak front starts to dive southeast. Unfortunately, clouds won't move in fast enough to prevent heating, bringing highs to the mid 90s for the afternoon. The inbound front will bring the chance of a few storms mid-late Saturday afternoon. These could last into the evening, and possibly into the early night if enough instability hangs around after sunset. After any remaining isolated storms move out, skies turn clear and temps drop to a low around 74.

NAM 12km model at 7pm Saturday shows a few storms moving through the Mid-South along a weak front. Source-Tropical Tidbits.

Sunday and Sunday Night

That weak front that dives south later Saturday will stall out near Memphis, bringing a source to help give some lift for Sunday afternoon storms. So, Sunday will start dry and mostly sunny. As we head into the afternoon, sky conditions turn partly cloudy and we will watch for scattered storms to develop. Obviously by this point in the forecast, summer has returned with yet another day with temps in the 90s.
Summer heat makes it's return by the weekend and looks to mainly stick around for the next several days

Sunday night, a few storms could be hanging around early on. They will gradually weaken after sunset, bringing back mostly clear skies for the remainder of the night. Temps Sunday night drop to the lower 70s.

Monday and Tuesday

Monday, the weak, stalled front remains over Memphis, providing enough lift for another dose of isolated storms in the afternoon. Temps will again top off around 90, with partly cloudy skies trying their best to hold off the heat. Monday night, rain chances linger on early, before ending and skies turn mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Tuesday, high pressure ridging temporarily takes over, breaking down that weak, stalled front. Skies will be partly cloudy, with obviously some sun coming in. There is the chance for an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon; however, anything that develops will be purely instability driven thanks to temps warming into the low 90s. Tuesday night, skies will be mostly clear and temps drop to the mid 70s.

Wednesday through Friday

Wednesday through Friday all look to be similar temperature-wise at the moment with highs topping off in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 70s. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday rain-chance-wise with just another shot at just an isolated shower or storm possible. Thursday and Friday, another front dives south and stalls out across the Mid-South, bringing a new shot at increased rain chances. As a disclaimer, rain chances do increase, but they will remain scattered, so its likely that not everyone will see rain both days and it will not last all day.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

July 2018 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

July Climate Recap

The month of July ended slightly above normal in the temperature category, but by less than a half degree. While the first three weeks of the month featured only 2 days below normal (and both by a mere degree), a cool spell to end the month helped bring the average down. There were no above average days in the final 10 days of July as a pleasant patter set in, allowing morning lows to reach 70 degrees or cooler on five occasions. No daily records were set during the month. Scattered thunderstorms during the month again resulted in varying rainfall totals. While the airport ended the month above average with exactly five inches of rain, MWN in Bartlett recorded about 3/4 of an inch less. Most rain at the airport fell on only 5 days, leaving large periods of dry weather between.

Severe weather reports for the month included trees down and wind damage from scattered storms in Shelby County on the 4th, 5th, 14th, and 15th. Also, wind damage and hail occurred in Shelby and DeSoto Counties on the 20th, and a very unfortunate fatality occurred on the 14th in Fayette County, in which lightning struck a tree that subsequently fell on an individual mowing his yard. There were also a couple of reports of wind damage in north MS on the 4th and 20th. There were multiple Severe Thunderstorm and Flash Flood Warnings issued for the greater Memphis metro over the course of the month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 83.0 degrees (0.3 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 92.0 degrees (0.4 degrees above  average)
Average low temperature: 74.1 degrees (0.3 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 97 degrees (5th, 11th, 13th)
Coolest temperature: 68 degrees (31st)
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 567  (18 above average)
Records set or tied: None.
Comments: Twenty-four days recorded high temperatures at or above 90 degrees, which is 3.1 days above average.

Monthly total: 5.00" (0.41" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8 (0.8 days below average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.01" (18th)
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Two days recorded more than 1.0" of rain.

Peak wind: Northeast/35 mph (15th)
Average wind: 6.2 mph
Average relative humidity: 70%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 81.1 degrees
Average high temperature: 91.8 degrees
Average low temperature: 72.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 97.1 degrees (15th)
Coolest temperature: 65.4 degrees (24th)
Comments: Temperature data was computed for 30 of the 31 days in July. Data was not available due to an equipment outage on the 17th.

Monthly total: 3.94" (automated rain gauge), 4.30" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 2.03" (16th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: East/30mph (16th)
Average relative humidity: 81%
Average barometric pressure: 30.01 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.51 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 81%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.76 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 75%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder