Sunday, February 17, 2019

[MWN VIDEO BLOG] Where are those ark plans? Flooding rain possible over the next week

I know we're tired of the rain, but another very wet week is ahead. The potential for flooding and flash flooding exists with heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday and again Saturday into Sunday (next weekend), though rain chances occur nearly every day this week, except Monday. Watch the video forecast discussion below for all of the details or check out the graphics below for a high-level overview.



Unable to view the video? Try clicking here: https://youtu.be/jjTosUgi9-Y

Rainfall over the past week, laying the groundwork for possible flooding this week by saturating the ground across the region. (NOAA/NCEP via Pivotal Wx)

The GFS model shows repeated surges of atmospheric moisture (shown as precipitable water) over the southeastern U.S. over the coming week. (PivotalWx)

Total precipitation forecast through next Sunday from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. 4-7" of rainfall is projected in the Memphis area with 10"+ in the TN Valley. (NOAA/WPC via PivotalWx)


Stay with us all week for the latest on the heavy rain and potential for flooding, as well as forecast updates as we tweak the timing and amounts of rainfall with each system as it approaches. Links to where to get all this information can be found below, and certainly be sure to download the MemphisWeather.net app for all of it in one neat little package, including StormWatch+ Alerts for flood and flash flood alerts for your location.  Stay dry (as best you can!) and stay safe!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, February 11, 2019

January 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

January Climate Recap


Despite some (fairly typical) large swings during January, overall the average temperature for the month ended just a bit above normal. The month started warm with consecutive days in the 60s at the end of week 1, but a cold front brought them back to near average through mid-month. The second half of the month featured more swings from cold to mild with various frontal passages. However, despite the swings, no records were broken with highs mostly in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s to 30s. The largest contributor to the above normal average were overnight lows that were about 1.5 degrees above normal, while daytime highs were very close to average for the month.

Precipitation to start 2019 was also a bit above normal, about three-fourths of an inch above the long-term average of nearly 4". Despite having eleven "rain days," most precipitation that contributed to the total fell on just four days that totaled more than one-half inch. Snow fell on the 19th (a dusting that officially was recorded as 0.2") and traces on the 25th and 26th. Overall, a disappointing month for snow-lovers in general! As far as severe weather, three Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued for the southern metro as a line of storms swept through early in the morning on the 19th. No damage was reported. On the 23rd, strong southerly (non-thunderstorm) wind downed a large tree in Southaven.


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 41.8 degrees (0.6 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 49.7 degrees (0.2 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 34.0 degrees (1.4 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 68 degrees (8th)
Coolest temperature: 20 degrees (31st)
Heating Degrees Days: 712 (26 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 0 (1 below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: 14 days dropped to or below freezing this month, essentially right at average.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 4.75" (0.77" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11 (1.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.29" (23rd)
Snowfall: 0.2" (1.7" below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Four days recorded more than 0.5" of rain, two of which were over 1".

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West/50 mph (19th)
Average wind: 8.7 mph
Average relative humidity: 72%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 41.1 degrees
Average high temperature: 49.8 degrees
Average low temperature: 32.4 degrees
Warmest temperature: 69.4 degrees (8th)
Coolest temperature: 19.0 degrees (31st)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 4.74" (automated rain gauge), 5.40" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest date: 1.17" (23rd) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: Trace
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/30 mph (19th)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 30.18 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.52 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 60%
MWN average dewpoint error: 3.02 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 53%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - February

The February climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for the deep south and below normal across much of the northern U.S. west of the Great Lakes. For Memphis, odds don't favor above or below normal temperatures, with a 33% chance of above normal temperatures, a 34% chance of near normal temperatures, and a 33% chance of below normal temperatures. Memphis typically averages 45.5° degrees for the month of February.

A wet February is forecast for much of the United States, particularly the east and Desert Southwest, while drier than average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest. For Memphis, odds favor wet conditions with a 53% chance of above normal precipitation, a 33% chance of near normal precipitation and only a 14% chance of below average precipitation. February historically averages 4.39" of precipitation and 1.3" of snow.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder