Sunday, September 12, 2021

Humidity & rain chances return as T.S. Nicholas moves towards southeast TX

Much to my chagrin, and probably most of yours, the cooler mornings and below average humidity of this past week is on its way out for the coming week. High pressure to our east brings a return of near-70° dewpoints on light southerly flow, as well as an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances for the coming week. Let's dive into the details.


With wind shifting to the south today, moisture is starting to increase again after a very pleasant week gone by. Dewpoints - which were in the 50s for much of the past week - will rise to the upper 60s to near 70 degrees to start the week. Ick. Moisture aloft also increases, and that means more scattered to broken cloud cover, especially during the daytime hours. While most of us stay dry, I expect to see a few echoes on radar by Monday afternoon as instability rises a bit. Tuesday will features a few more showers than Monday, but rain chances are still likely to only be 10-20% each day. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s Monday and mid 80s Tuesday with lows in the low 70s instead of the 50s and 60s of the past several days. You'll notice that as you step out in the mornings.


As a front moves south towards the region but stalls near the KY/TN border, atmospheric moisture increase continues into mid-week, mainly sourced to our south where brand-new Tropical Storm Nicholas (currently making its way towards the TX coast; see below) will likely be in the vicinity of eastern TX. Southerly wind will push clouds and increased rain chances into the area, though with the main focus of the storm well to our south, I don't expect rain-outs locally. We'll put POPs (probability of precipitation) in the "scattered" range, or 40-50%. Rainfall totals will be insufficient to completely overcome the recent dryness, likely less than an inch in any one spot.

Additional cloud cover will hold highs back to the mid 80s with morning lows near or just above 70° and dewpoints lingering around 70° as well. It'll feel fairly sticky and you'll want to keep the umbrella handy. Forecast confidence dips just a bit for this mid-week period, depending on the eventual track of Nicholas, though it's likely to remain well to our south.

Friday into next weekend

Remnants of Nicholas may dry up a bit to our south due to a lack of flow to push it somewhere else. Meanwhile, high pressure rebuilds a bit over our area, so the Mid-South will probably see diminishing rain chances into next weekend, though maybe not totally dry. High temperatures start to rise back to near 90 degrees with humidity sticking around without a frontal system to shove it away. Overall, for the last weekend of "official summer," you'll probably be ready for fall to arrive for good. We're not quite there yet! 

The temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for next weekend into the start of the following week paints a warm picture. There is a very high probability of above average temperatures for our area, during a time when average highs are in the mid 80s. 

If you are heading to the Mississippi State/Memphis football game on Saturday, it won't be hot chocolate or long sleeve weather yet - plan on a bit of sweat, even just as "engaged bystanders" in the stadium!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, September 6, 2021

August 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

August Climate Recap

With summer finally arriving in mid-July, it was not likely to let up heading into the hottest month of the year - and it did not. Twenty of thirty days reached 90 degrees and the average temperature for the month ended about a degree above normal. That above average temperature was driven entirely by overnight lows however. The average high of 91.5 was right at normal, while overnight lows averaged two degrees above normal. including one record high minimum temperature on the 26th (79 degrees).

A dry trend that started as the heat built in late July extended through August with less than 2.5 inches of rain falling for the month at the airport and even less (by about an inch) in Bartlett. The wettest day of the month at the airport, the 13th, was also the only day of measurable rainfall in the first two and a half weeks of August. Rain days became more common the last two weeks. That wet day also had the only report of severe weather for the month. Localized heavy rainfall of multiple inches fell in the afternoon resulting in flooding that stalled vehicles in East Memphis along Poplar Avenue. There were no Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued in the metro in August.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 83.0 degrees (0.9 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 91.5 degrees (0.0 degrees below average) 
Average low temperature: 74.5 degrees (1.9 degrees below average) 
Warmest temperature: 96 degrees (24th, 25th, 26th) 
Coolest temperature: 68 degrees (4th, 5th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 566 (38 above average) 
Records set or tied: Record high minimum (26th, 79 degrees)
Comments: There were 20 days with high temperatures above 90 degrees, which is average for July.

Monthly total: 2.40" (0.97" below average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 5 (2.6 days below average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.05" (13th) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Two days recorded precipitation of more than an one-half inch, while July averages 2.3 days.

Peak wind: East/38 mph (13th) 
Average wind: 7.2 mph 
Average relative humidity: 69% 
Average sky cover: 50% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 80.3 degrees 
Average high temperature: 91.4 degrees 
Average low temperature: 71.8 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 98.4 degrees (11th) 
Coolest temperature: 62.1 degrees (5th) 
Comments: None 

Monthly total: 1.43" (automated rain gauge), 1.60"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 6
Wettest date: 0.58" (19th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: None

Peak wind: North/23 mph (31st)
Average relative humidity: 80% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.97in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.53 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 84% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.45 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 82% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - September 2021

The September climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the western states, New England, and the Florida peninsula. Slightly below average temperatures are forecast in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Odds favor very near average temperatures for Memphis with a 34% chance of below average temperatures and a 33% chance of above average conditions. The average temperature for September is 76.0 degrees, about six degrees below the August average.

Precipitation is expected to be well above normal for the Mid-Atlantic states into southern New England with wetter than average conditions extending south into the southeast U.S. Additional above average precipitation is forecast for the Desert Southwest. Below average precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest. For Memphis, odds are slightly in favor of above average precipitation (37%) versus a 30% chance of below average precipitation. Rainfall historically averages only 3.03 inches.

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info! 
Complete MWN Forecast: on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder