Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Late week cold air brings a possible precip mix, then dry weather for a few days!

Another soggy start to the week but thankfully we are in for a few drier days after tomorrow! This morning a cold front finished moving through the area and took the cloud cover and rain with it. A short wave upper level trough will move through on Thursday bringing shower activity back through the southeast. Early on Thursday a few snowflakes are possible as the showers move through. Cold air will fill in behind it making the end of your week very chilly! However, high pressure will situate over us allowing for Friday and Saturday to be sunny once again! Clouds and rain return to start off next week as low pressure system lifts through the southeast Sunday through Monday. Thankfully this system will be short lived allowing Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning to be dry and mild!

Did someone say Flurries?


Wednesday and Thursday

We are in for a mostly sunny day but clouds will begin building back late this evening and overnight. Afternoon highs will be seasonal in the lower 50s. Rain chances are minimal for the rest of your Wednesday but overnight, lows fall into the mid to upper 30s and light scattered showers move back into the area. Most of the precipitation will occur Thursday morning. A few snowflakes may be mixed in with rain. The HRRR model is much more conservative suggesting flurries will be extremely minimal. The NAM suggests that a short-lived switch over to snow is possible. While these models are disagreeing on how many snowflakes will fall, we know there will be no major impacts expected! Throughout Thursday all precipitation will move out of the area allowing for some afternoon clearing and possibly some sunshine! Afternoon highs will be chilly in the mid 40s. Overnights clouds will clear leaving Thursday night clear and very cold! Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s but wind chills will be in the lower teens! Remember to bring in any outdoor pets or plants!
The 6am run of  HRRR model showing forecast radar at 7am. This highlights a very small change over to snow/sleet across northern Mississippi and Southern Tennessee. (Pivotal Weather)

The 6am run of  NAM model showing forecast radar at 9am. This highlights a possible change over from rain to snow/sleet across northern Mississippi and Southern Tennessee. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

Cold air sticks around for the southeast as the shortwave trough that brought Thursday's rain moves out. Out the door temperatures Friday morning will be in the mid 20s but a northeasterly wind will keep wind chills in the teens! Make sure to bundle up as you leave Friday morning. Thankfully clouds will be move out overnight on Thursday finally giving us a sunny day! Afternoon highs will be chilly in the mid 40s, 10 degrees below average for this time of year! Overnight and into Saturday morning lows will fall into the mid 20s under mostly clear skies. Those pets and plants need to be brought in once again. The sun sticks around for most of Saturday but high clouds will begin moving into the area into the afternoon. Afternoon highs will be slightly warming in the lower 50s leaving Saturday absolutely gorgeous! Make sure to get out and enjoy the sunshine as cloud begin to build back overnight Saturday with a low chance of rain. 


Sunday and Monday 

Sunday morning temperatures will be a bit more mild at 40 degrees. Throughout the early morning hours, clouds and rain will move back into the area as a low pressure system moves through the southeast. Rain will be likely for most of the day on Sunday with afternoon highs reaching into the lower 50s. Overnight showers will become more scattered with lows mid 40s. Rain will continue into Monday morning but quickly move out throughout the day leaving the afternoon mostly dry! Clouds will begin to clear giving us a potential for a few peaks of sunshine allowing for highs to warm near 50. 

The GFS model showing a low pressure system moving across the eastern portions of the US. This will create showers throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday morning. This image is valid at 6am Monday. This low pressure system will lift out leaving Monday afternoon mostly dry! (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday and Wednesday 

Tuesday starts off mild with overnight temperatures in the mid 40s. Skies will continue to clear throughout the day on Tuesday until afternoon skies are partly cloudy and highs are near 60! Overnight mild conditions continue with lows in the lower 40s. Wednesday will be partly sunny with highs in the mid 50s and a chance of showers. The long-range models do have different opinions in the mid to late week period (next week) with another cold blast moving into the eastern U.S. How far south that cold air drops is uncertain, making us all ask, where are you Spring?? (Exactly one more month!) 

The first day of Spring is March 19th!

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Monday, February 10, 2020

The week ahead: MORE rain, a chance of storms, and a chilly Valentines Day

What a beautiful weekend we had! Wish that weather could've hung out longer, but I guess it's best that it was nice on the weekend at least!

Monday

Unfortunately, a cold front brought another round of rainfall overnight into this morning, adding another three-quarters of an inch to an inch of rain to the overflowing gauge. As of noon, that front has now pushed just south of I-40 as it moves south and stalls over MS and AL. It'll remain there for a little more than a day, which means cooler air behind it sinks into the metro and remains locked in place with temperatures mainly in the 40s after reaching 60 degrees at noon today. It's proximity, along with upper level energy aloft, will keep skies cloudy with another round of light rainfall overnight Monday night.

The morning run of the high-res NAM3 model forecast radar from noon Monday through midnight Tuesday night. Multiple rounds of mainly light rain are expected, primarily tonight and again Tuesday PM. Heavier rain and storms remain to our south. (WxBell)

Tuesday

Tuesday will feature another cloudy day with overnight rain moving out early in the day and a brief dry lull for most of the morning and early afternoon as temperatures continue to linger in the 40s. However, by afternoon, additional light rainfall will ride the southwest jet stream up and over the area, so for the most part plan on another cool and damp day Tuesday with light rain continuing into the overnight.


Wednesday

By Wednesday morning, rain intensity will pick up a bit as the front to our south lifts back towards us and low pressure develops along it to our southwest, heading towards north MS and the Tennessee River Valley. Wednesday appears to be wet all-around as that low passes just to our east. Some rain could be heavy and thunder is also possible depending on how close the low gets to the metro.  Models are still bickering on its exact track.

The morning run of the GFS model shows the track of low pressure from 6am Wednesday through 6am Thursday. This track would keep severe weather to our southeast but bring a good deal of heavy rain on Wednesday. (WxBell)

Severe weather to our south

The good news is, as long as the low stays east of the Mississippi River as it moves northeast (which it should), we won't be in the path of any severe storms. Those across MS and parts of AL may not be as lucky with severe weather a distinct possibility on Wednesday.



Rainfall and flooding potential

By Wednesday night, the low moves away, dragging the front all the way through the region and mercifully bringing an end to the rainy pattern for a bit. Rainfall totals from last night through Wednesday night however will likely be above 3" and may approach 4" in spots. Again, fortunately, the axis of heaviest rain, where 6" or more is possible, is not too far to our south. Flooding (flash and river/stream) is likely on those areas, though we'll also see streams rise and some low-lying and urban flooding possible due to saturated ground.

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook through early Tuesday morning indicates a high risk of flooding rain to our southeast. (NWS)
Total precipitation forecast through Thursday morning by the NWS calls for 2-3" in the metro (in addition to than received in the past 24 hours), while 4-6" is likely across the Deep South. (NWS via WxBell)

Valentine's weekend

The end of the week features much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday with highs in the 40s and lows Friday and Saturday mornings in the mid to upper 20s! You might be able to stoke up the fireplace or fire pit for Valentine's Day with temps that chilly, but bundle up if you head out to your favorite romantic restaurant!

The forecast map for Valentine's morning features a massive area of cold high pressure dominating the eastern 2/3 of the country. (NWS/WPC)
Long-range prognostications show a return to above average temperatures and rainfall heading into next week once again.



Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder