Thursday, May 16, 2019

Sunny & hot for now, t'storms return Sunday

While it may not officially be summer yet, the rest of this week and next week sure do feel like summertime. Luckily, rain chances will stay away now through Saturday leaving us with some pretty nice and warm conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return on Sunday, before hanging around throughout next week. Besides that, highs will remain in the 80s for the foreseeable future.

Rest of today

Following what was a busy evening yesterday for some with severe thunderstorms across the area, we are expecting a much more quiet and tranquil evening tonight. Temps will remain in the 80s until sunset, before falling to 68 overnight under clear skies. 

Friday

Another sunny, warm and muggy day is on tap for tomorrow as highs will reach 89. I would not be surprised if it feels like the 90s tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. If you are planning to head out to the World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest, I would be sure to bring sunscreen and stay hydrated. It will definitely feel like summertime tomorrow. 


Saturday

If you had to choose between Saturday and Sunday for a day outside, Saturday is definitely the day to do so. Sunny skies and warm temperatures return once again with highs nearing 87. Things will get a bit breezy in the afternoon, with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts upwards of 25-30 mph. Cloud coverage may begin to increase in the afternoon as well, otherwise Saturday looks incredible. 



While shower chances should hold off until Sunday, we will need to keep an eye out for some pesky pop-up thunderstorms Saturday evening. The chance is small, but the chance is there. Hopefully showers will hold off until after midnight. 

Sunday into next week

After a beautiful Saturday, Sunday does not appear to be as nice. While highs will be in the low 80s, showers and thunderstorms will likely put a damper on our day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through the area through the morning into the afternoon hours. While thunderstorms will be possible, widespread severe weather is not expected. 

GFS shows showers and thunderstorms passing through the Mid-South on Sunday. (Tropical Tidbits)
As we look into next week, we will continue to transition into a summertime weather pattern. Highs are expected to be above average, with temps reaching the mid to upper 80s. 

The Climate Prediction Center shows temperatures will be above average next week throughout the Mid-South. (NOAA/CPC)
With this summertime pattern, shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible through the first half of the week with the best chances in the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday.

Summer Outlook

Every year around this time, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) releases their June, July, August three-month outlook, otherwise referred to as their summer outlook. For much of the Mid-South, the CPC is expecting relatively near average temperatures across the area with slightly above average precipitation. While this is an overall trend (meaning we could have periods of warmer/cooler weather), it is promising to see.

CPC three-month outlook for temperatures shows near average temperatures for much of the Mid-South this summer. (NOAA/CPC)

CPC three-month outlook for precipitation shows slightly above average precipitation for much of the Mid-South this summer. (NOAA/CPC)

Farewell Note


On a personal note, this will be my last full-time blog for MWN. I have thoroughly enjoyed getting to know the Memphis area over the past year. As a fellow Tennessean, I have always loved working in different areas across the state. I would also like to thank Erik for the opportunity and guidance/mentoring over the past year. The Memphis community will always hold a special place in my heart. As for me, I will be working full-time this summer for the NWS office in Nashville, TN before returning back to Mississippi State this fall to finish up and complete year two of my master's degree.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

[ Editor's Note: Caroline has been an amazing addition to the MemphisWeather.net team over the past year. I had high expectations based on a very strong reference from another outfit like MWN based in middle TN. Honestly, she exceeded those expectations. I can't thank her enough for the time and dedication she offered to MWN and all of you. Her future in meteorology is bright and I have no doubt she will be a superstar wherever her path leads. Thank you Caroline! You'll always be a part of #TeamMWN in my book!  --Erik ]

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Saturday, May 11, 2019

When clear weather returns, and your mother's day forecast

Happy weekend! After a couple days of wet weather, and a cool day yesterday, it's nice to see some clear weather returning for the Mid-South in the near future. Today rain chances are still intact for the metro, but clearing out come Sunday. 



Saturday

The HRRR model showing scattered showers for the duration of Saturday. (WxBell)
After some morning drizzle, afternoon rain and some thunderstorm activity will be likely. A stalling cold front is bringing us this lovely weather, but luckily it's pushing out overnight, leaving behind some decent weather just in time for Mother's Day. The Storm Prediction Center currently has most of the severe weather risk down south, where instability is higher, while our main concerns are just a few thunderstorms, and most of those will be this afternoon in Mississippi. Temperatures today will only rise to around 67. Any outdoor plans today should have a backup plan in place, in case you need to move them indoors. Overnight expect overcast conditions with some showers moving into the very early hours. Temps down down into the upper 50's. But let's get to the good news!

The Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Saturday has a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) just to our south, leaving the Memphis metro with just the chance of thunder. (NWS/SPC)

Sunday


Don't change any plans you have for Mother's Day, because it's looking up to be a pretty good day! Pre-dawn Sunday is looking to have a few showers, but skies become partly sunny for the rest of the morning and afternoon. A low pressure system will continue to push northeast, leaving behind warmer temps in the lower 70's, a bit more sunshine, and a light northwest wind. Clouds will clear out by Sunday night making it mainly clear with a low of 54. A perfect day to enjoy outside!


Beginning Your Work Week


Nothing like Monday motivation with a forecast like this. We'll start the week off dry with Monday looking to be partly cloudy with highs in the lower to mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's. On Tuesday, more sun returns with highs warming up to near 80 and lows in the mid 50's.

Rain Chances Return Mid-Week

Rain chances return in the latter half of the week, specifically Thursday according to the GFS model. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be the days when slight rain chances could return. These would have some possible thunderstorms associated with them, but we'll be keeping a close eye on those as we get closer. We'll keep rain chances low at about 20% for both days with partly sunny skies. Low precip amounts are expected Wednesday, but could be a bit higher with the weak front moving through Thursday. Temps will warm up again after Tuesday, putting us back above average with highs in the 80's through next weekend. But with that warm weather, allergy problems will return. Might want to keep that allergy medicine handy around mid-week!

Medium amounts of pollen are anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday. (Pollen.com)

Have a great weekend Memphians, and Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful moms out there!

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder