Sunday, March 17, 2019

A whole lot of sunshine this week with a mid-week shower possible

After what has seemed like a dreary couple of weeks, we will finally experience some pleasant, Spring-like weather this week. While we can't promise to stay dry the entire week, we should only see rain on one/two day(s), which that is still even semi-questionable. All in all, I hope you were able to find your sunglasses over the weekend because you will need to keep them around this week!


In terms of our temperatures this week, and how this compares to "normal", we will actually be a few degrees below normal to start the week and finish off the week a few degrees above normal. "Normal" for mid-March is right around the mid-60s, which we should hang around near 60 the first half of the week before reaching into the upper 60s to near 70 by this weekend. All in all, temps in the 60s sounds pretty nice to me.


Tonight and tomorrow

We have had a beautiful day today and this will continue into the evening and overnight hours. For this evening, temps will slowly begin to fall back into the 50s under a mostly clear sky. Overnight, we could begin to see a few more clouds fill our skies with temps dipping down to near 39.

Tomorrow, expect for a few of these overnight clouds to hang around throughout the day, leaving partly cloudy skies behind. While a few clouds will fill the sky, there will be plenty of sunshine to help temps to rise up to 59 for our high. 

Tuesday

Besides a few more clouds, Tuesday appears to be a near copy to Monday. While some clouds will fill the sky, there will be ample sunshine to make it feel pretty nice outside. Highs will reach near 50.

Wednesday and Thursday

By the middle of the week, we will begin to see a slight increase in cloudiness, with a chance of showers. A very weak "cold" front is expected to move through the area, bringing enough energy to maybe bring a few showers with it. Some models, like the GFS, want to bring showers through the area sometime on Wednesday, while the Euro wants to hold these showers until the AM hours on Thursday.
The GFS shows showers moving through the Mid-South during the afternoon to evening hours on Wednesday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Regardless of the timing differences, it does look like we may get a few showers sometime between Wednesday and Thursday. Highs both days look to be in the low to mid 60s. By Thursday afternoon, any shower chances should have moved along, leaving partly cloudy conditions for our afternoon and evening hours.

Friday and a glance at this weekend

We will begin to get a taste of warmer temperatures by Friday heading into the weekend. High pressure will build back into the Mid-South following Wednesday/Thursday's weak frontal passage. This high pressure will help to keep showers out and sunshine in.

The Weather Prediction Center's surface front forecast shows high pressure extending across much of the Eastern half of the U.S., including the Mid-South region (NOAA/WPC)
Highs will reach into the upper 60s to near 70 this upcoming weekend, with overnight lows falling to the mid 40s. With sunshine and just above average temps, I don't think we could ask for a more pleasant weekend. 

If you have plans for this upcoming weekend Friday and Saturday look like the "better" days to do so. While it is still a week away, models are hinting at some showers next Sunday. Worth mentioning if you are weighing doing something outdoors Saturday vs. Sunday, in which case I would make plans for Saturday rather than Sunday. As the week progresses, we'll keep an eye on Sunday's shower and thunderstorm chances. 


Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Friday, March 15, 2019

February 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

February Climate Recap

February was dominated by warm air to start the month with multiple days of well above normal temperatures, including record tying temperatures on the 6th. A Strong cold front brought thunderstorms and much colder air for a couple of days before warm and wet conditions continued through mid-month. Below average temperatures followed a mid-month cold front that lasted for a week. Wet and cold conditions dominated the third week of the month with periods of thunderstorms and heavy rain, including precipitation on 7 of 8 days totaling over 5" at the airport. It warmed back up for the last week of the month with dry conditions. Overall, temperatures and precipitation were both well above normal for the month. There was no snowfall during the month.

The February temperature anomalies (departure from average) for the CONUS shows very warm conditions occurred in the eastern half of the country and cold air dominated the west, in particular the northwest. (Weathermodels.com)

As far as severe weather, many Flash Flood Warnings were issued over the course of the month, but the most active weather days were the 22nd and 23rd when Severe Thunderstorm and Flash Flood Warnings were issued in the metro. No damage was observed from storms, but there were several flood reports. Tornado Warnings, and a couple of tornado reports, occurred on the 23rd east of the metro closer to the Tennessee River.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 48.8 degrees (3.3 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 57.9 degrees (3.2 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 39.7 degrees (3.4 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 73 degrees (6th, 23rd)
Coolest temperature: 23 degrees (8th)
Heating Degrees Days: 449 (99 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 3 (1 above average)
Records set or tied: February 6 (62 degrees, record high minimum tied; 73 degrees, record high tied)
Comments: Six days dropped to or below freezing this month, 3.5 below average

Precipitation
Monthly total: 8.78" (4.39" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 15 (5.8 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.04" (11th)
Snowfall: 0.0" (1.3" below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Seven days recorded more than 0.5" of rain, three of which were over 1".

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/47 mph (14th)
Average wind: 9.0 mph
Average relative humidity: 74%
Average sky cover: 80%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 48.0 degrees
Average high temperature: 57.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 38.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 73.6 degrees (3rd)
Coolest temperature: 22.7  degrees (8th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 10.05" (automated rain gauge), 11.52" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 18
Wettest date: 1.76" (6th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: Five days recorded more than an inch of rain.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/32 mph (14th)
Average relative humidity: 80%
Average barometric pressure: 30.12 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.93 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 53%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.90 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 48%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - March

The March climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Temperatures are forecast to be below normal for much of the northern, central and western U.S. For Memphis, odds favor slightly below normal temperatures, with a 30% chance of above normal temperatures, a 33% chance of near normal temperatures, and a 37% chance of below normal temperatures. Memphis typically averages 54.0° degrees for the month of March.


A wet March is forecast for the southwestern and southeastern U.S. with near normal precipitation across the northern tier of the nation. For Memphis, odds favor wet conditions with a 46% chance of above normal precipitation, a 33% chance of near normal precipitation and only a 21% chance of below average precipitation. March historically averages 5.16" of precipitation, including 0.4" of snow.


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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder