Saturday, December 7, 2019

Dry Sunday before another rain maker arrives to start the week

Coming around to the holiday season, the weather looks like it could be rather sunny over the next week or two. The only big rain chance we have is for Monday and Tuesday. Even with this rain chance, only 0.25" - 0.50" of rain is expected as precipitation will be mostly light with this low pressure system. After the associated cold front from the low pressure system passes, we will be under the influence of a high pressure system over the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will bring unseasonably cool temperatures to the area from Wednesday until at least Friday. If you haven't already put up your outdoor decorations, the second half of this week will be rather chilly and unfavorable for outdoor activities.



Sunday through Tuesday

Sunday will feature nice weather with highs that top out in the low 60s with some cloud cover over the area. Sunday night temperatures will only get down to the mid 50s due to the increased cloud cover and small chance of a shower. Monday and Tuesday look to be our "rain-maker" this week. A slight chance of rain exists Sunday night. The high on Monday will be in the mid 60s, with rain chances increasing throughout the day. Monday night temperatures will drop quickly with the passage of a cold front as we could get all the way down to the upper 30s. Due to the passage of the cold front, temperatures will probably only max out in the low 40s with a cold rain falling. Tuesday night could be bitter cold with temperatures into the upper 20s. Even though we will likely get rain Monday through Tuesday, it doesn't look like totals will be that high, averaging less than a half inch.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), or total rainfall, from late Saturday through late Tuesday, shows rain totals expected to be from one-quarter of an to half an inch . (WPC) 


 Wednesday through Saturday

Wednesday through Saturday look like they will be dry and cold. These conditions will be present from Wednesday through Saturday because we will be under the influence of high pressure system.  Wednesday highs will only top out in the mid 40s, with mostly sunny conditions. Wednesday night will get down to the upper 20s. Thursday highs will again only top out in the mid 40s with partly sunny conditions. Thursday night temperatures will drop to the low 30s. Friday temperatures during the day will top out in the upper 40s, with partly cloudy conditions. Friday night temperatures will drop to the mid 30s again. The high on Saturday will be pleasant with a high of about 50. 

This is the expected surface pressure map Thursday morning from the Weather Prediction Center. The surface map shows that we will be under the influence of a high pressure system in the Great Lakes region, bringing unseasonably cool temperature to Memphis. 

Glancing into Week Two

The weather conditions that will be present during week two (December 15th-21st) are most likely going to be near average, as shown by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) below. Mid-month high temperatures average in the lower 50s with lows in the mid 30s.

CPC temperature map for the United States that shows temperatures will be around normal in the Mid-South.
CPC precipitation map for the United States that shows precipitation will be around normal locally.

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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November 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

November Climate Recap

Cold weather over the last couple of weeks in October bled into November, which was nearly the coldest on record through the first two weeks of the month. Despite some temperature moderation, the latter half of the month was also slightly below normal, resulting in an average that was in the top 10% coldest on record (14th of 145 years). Three cold temperature records were set during a particularly cold spell mid-month. November also ended up averaging 16 degrees colder than October.

The U.S. temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for the month of November shows well below normal temperatures across much of the nation east of the Rocky Mountains, while above average temperatures were present in the western U.S. (WeatherBell)

After October set a new monthly rainfall record, November ended up just over an inch below average. The number of rain days was right at average. Snow fell on the 11th and 12th, both of which were just a trace but each set or tied the daily snowfall record. Only one severe weather report was received during the month. On November, 27, a barn was destroyed and several other structures, including utility poles, attained damage in southern Tunica County due to wind. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued for Tate and Marshall Counties on the 30th with no damage noted.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 48.0 degrees (5.2 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 58.6 degrees (4.0 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 37.3 degrees (6.4 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 72 degrees (20th)
Coolest temperature: 17 degrees (13th)
Heating Degrees Days: 503 (135 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 0 (13 below average)
Records set or tied: Record low maximum set - 30 degrees (12th), record low set - 20 degrees (12th), record low set - 17 degrees (13th).
Comments: 11 days recorded a low temperature at or below freezing, 7.8 days more than average for the month. One day also recorded a high temperature below freezing (12th).

Precipitation
Monthly total: 4.31" (1.18" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (0.5 day below average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.39" (26th)
Snowfall: Trace
Records set or tied: Record snowfall tied - trace (11th), record snowfall set - trace (12th).
Comments: One day had rainfall exceeding one inch. A trace of snow fell on the 11th and again on the 12th.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/38 mph (27th)
Average wind: 7.4 mph
Average relative humidity: 67%
Average sky cover: 40%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 45.6 degrees
Average high temperature: 57.8 degrees
Average low temperature: 34.9 degrees
Warmest temperature: 70.6 degrees (20th)
Coolest temperature: 14.6 degrees (13th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.47" (automated rain gauge), 5.58" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 1.83" (26th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: Trace
Comments: Sleet fell on the 11th and snow flurries fell on the 12th.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Southwest/32 mph (27th)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 30.13 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.16 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 63%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.47 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 59%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - December

The December climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for most of the country with the highest odds over the central and southern Plains. Odds favor above average temperatures for Memphis, at nearly 50%. Memphis averages 43.6 degrees for the month.



Wetter than normal weather is expected for the western U.S. and the Midwest, spreading into the Northeast. Drier than average conditions are forecast for south Texas and the Florida peninsula. For Memphis, odds favor typical rainfall, which historically averages about five and three-quarter inches and is the wettest month of the year climatologically.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder