Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Cooler temps for all, rain chances today and to end the week

Oh fall, you have been so good to us this week. I don't know about you, but I have certainly enjoyed the cooler weather we have had over the last few days. Thankfully, this cooler weather looks to stay for a while as we head into the second half of October. Today will continue to be a bit soggy, but we do have a break from the rain chances coming.

Today

While we've stayed relatively dry so far, expect for that to change as we push through the day. Light showers continue to drift towards our area as we speak and will reach us by this afternoon.

HRRR shows this funnel of showers moving through the Mid-South through the majority of this afternoon with showers leaving during the evening hours. (WeatherBell)

While showers should remain light, they will stick around long enough that you will likely want to keep your umbrella handy for the rest of the day. This will be a chilly rain folks. 


Additionally, temps will not warm up that much today. Temps currently sit in the mid 40s and will only rise into the mid 50s by the end of the day. This will leave our highs nearly 20 degrees below normal ("normal" is around 74). Luckily temps won't fall too much overnight, leaving lows around 46 under a mostly cloudy sky.

Tomorrow & Thursday 

After our wet day today we will see a brief, couple day break from all of the soggy rain. Tomorrow and Wednesday look like pretty nice days to embrace the fall weather. While some clouds will be present each day, enough sunshine will be around to help highs warm into the low to mid 60s (which is still a few degrees below average). Overnight temps will cool off into the mid 40s. 



Friday & Saturday

Our period of dryness could only last so long as rain chances return to end the work week and begin the weekend. The main time frame we are looking at showers is anytime from Friday afternoon until Saturday morning. Friday morning and Saturday afternoon/evening look to remain dry at this point. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s both days with overnight lows falling into the low 50s to near 50. 

GFS loop from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon shows showers arriving in the Mid-South during the afternoon on Friday and moving out early Saturday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Next Week

After Friday and Saturday morning's showers, we will begin to transition into a pretty dry period. Most models and outlooks for next week show minimal rain chances through the majority of next week. For those who have wanted a break from the soggy weather, it's coming.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) keeps the Mid-South in the slightly below average precipitation category for much of next week. (Pivotal Weather)
The good news along with this period of dryness is that temps will remain cooler. Even though high pressure looks to build in for much of next week, temps look to remain below average.

CPC keeps the Mid-South in the below average temperature category for next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Friday, October 12, 2018

Fall Is Here, Sergio brings Sunday rain, then Cold Blast #2

It is no argument that Fall has finally arrived with the surge of cooler air. All of that is thanks to Wednesday's cold front that came through. We do have some changes coming in the forecast over the next seven days; however, no worries! Our cooler weather is here to remain. Instead, we do have a decent amount of rain on the way, thanks partially to Sergio.

Tonight


A weak boundary moving through this afternoon and into tonight is bringing a short lived chance at some stray rain this evening and into tonight. As mentioned, rain will be light. Likewise, the wave will be weakening as it moves through so not everyone will see rain.

Light showers move through this evening as a weak boundary moves through the Mid-South. Source: HRRR model, WeatherBell
Clouds that arrive with this rain will be sticking around overnight and into tomorrow. These clouds will hold in some heat tonight, preventing us from dipping into the 40s. Instead, we will see lows in the lower 50s. Rain chances drop off tonight and we remain dry until at least mid-day Saturday.

Tomorrow (Saturday)


We start the weekend dry Saturday, but Sergio, formerly a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific that made landfall in Baja California early this morning, plans to change that, along with the help of a new low pressure system. That new developing low is what picks up Sergio and brings it over to the Mid-South. The moisture from this tropical remnant will start to bring light, scattered rain as early as late Saturday afternoon. As we move into the night, rain chances quickly ramp up. Thanks to the clouds Saturday afternoon, high temps remain in the upper 60s. As it stands now, most of the University of Memphis football game vs. Central Florida should remain dry, though if rain does arrive during the contest, it will be light.

3km NAM brings 1-1.5 inches of rain for the Memphis area by Sunday afternoon thanks to Sergio's remnants. (WeatherBell)

Saturday night, rain chances ramp up as steady rain moves in thanks to Sergio's remnants and a northward bound warm front from the parent frontal system that will be steering Sergio. That lifting warm front will bring in some warmer air, so Saturday night we only drop into the upper 50s to right at the 60 degree mark.

Sunday and Monday


If you thought that rain was going anywhere any time fast, you were wrong. The front takes its sweet time getting out of the Mid-South. That said, look for showers through the day Sunday, Sunday night, and into the earlier half of Monday as well. Lighter precipitation is possible during a relative lull Sunday afternoon, but look for rain rates to pick back up Sunday night.

Rain chances remain high, seen here with simulated reflectivity from the GFS model for Sunday evening. (Tropical Tidbits)


Temps through this time will remain slightly warmer than what we've recently seen, until Monday. Sunday climbs into the lower 70s. Sunday night, as the front pushes through, temps will be dropping into the mid 50s. By Monday, the front will finally be bringing with it cooler weather, so our high around 63 will be earlier in the day.

Tuesday



Here comes some serious cooler weather, so prep for a true surge of Fall obsession! With the front moving through Monday, Tuesday looks to be the coolest part of our upcoming forecast. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s as clouds linger. As we move through the day, there will remain the slight chance of a shower as the front finishes its exit. Meanwhile, cooler air keeps funneling in. By that afternoon, we will only top off in the mid 50s. Talk about Fall-feels!

Look for a new surge of cool air Monday afternoon into Tuesday with lows Tuesday AM in the upper 40s. (WeatherBell)


Wednesday-Friday


Wednesday starts with another chilly morning in the upper 40s for lows. In fact, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings will see lows in the upper 40s. Highs remain pleasant not only for Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday as well where we will have highs in the mid 60s. Skies conditions will vary through this period as Wednesday will see a mix of sun and clouds. Thursday will see cloud cover increasing. By Friday, skies will be mostly cloudy as rain chances start to slightly increase with the introduction of a new system.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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