Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Sunshine holds on for a little longer, rain chances return by Thursday

Below average temps continue to be the main talking point of our overall weather pattern. This week has been fairly dry so far, but that looks to change for the second half of the week into the beginning of the weekend. Luckily, while we will see an increase in precipitation, our below average temps will continue for the foreseeable future.

Today

Yet another pleasant, fall day on tap as a high pressure system positioned over the southeast continues to keep rain chances away (for now). We could see a few additional clouds today compared to yesterday, but nonetheless partly sunny skies will remain. 


Highs will reach near 70 this afternoon with lows dropping down to 47 tonight. Winds will stay out of the northeast around 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow

While we won't see any major changes tomorrow, we will see a few differences. A weak cold front is expected to move through later today, which will help temps to drop a few degrees tomorrow. Highs will only reach the mid 60s. Additional high pressure will move in behind this cold front, allowing skies to clear out a bit more tomorrow.

Weather Prediction Center frontal map shows a cold front that has pushed through the southeast with a high pressure funneling in behind. (NOAA/WPC)

While mostly sunny conditions will remain through the first half of the day, clouds will begin to increase in the evening ahead of increasing showers late tomorrow night into Thursday. Lows will fall into the upper 40s.

Thursday & Friday

We will notice a distinct pattern shift for the second half of the week as we move away from sunny skies and more into a cloudy, rainy pattern. Thursday will be characterized by light showers throughout the majority of the day with light showers continuing into the first half of Friday.

GFS shows showers moving through the Mid-South throughout Thursday into the first half of Friday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Some interesting features are actually leading to this dreary period. To our west, an upper-level trough pattern will begin to develop on Wednesday. Energy from the northwestern U.S. combined with energy from the desert southwest and the remnants of Willa (currently a major hurricane expected to make landfall in Western Mexico) will help to create the shortwave pattern that will bring showers to our area.

An upper-level map from the GFS shows all three energy waves combining by the time they move over the Mid-South. (Pivotal Weather)

You will want to keep the umbrella handy Thursday and Friday. While showers should remain light, there could be some pockets of heavier rainfall worthy of an umbrella.


Additionally, this shortwave will help to keep temps below average through the foreseeable future. High temps will remain in the upper 50s to near 60 both days with overnight lows nearing the upper 40s to 50.

This Weekend

Clouds and some lingering, scattered showers will hang around into Saturday behind the aforementioned shortwave. Highs will near the mid 60s on Saturday with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s.

We will begin to see some cloud coverage clearing into Sunday as things dry out across the Mid-South. Partly cloudy conditions will be in place by Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the upper 40s once again.

Next Week

For those who have been enjoying all of this cooler weather, you are in luck! Cooler temps are expected to continue into next week.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) keeps our area in the well below average category through next week. (Pivotal Weather)
CPC continues to show a slightly above average precipitation pattern into next week. (Pivotal Weather)
You'll want to keep the extra blankets out for the overnight hours too; temps will continue to dip into the 40s overnight.


Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Cooler temps for all, rain chances today and to end the week

Oh fall, you have been so good to us this week. I don't know about you, but I have certainly enjoyed the cooler weather we have had over the last few days. Thankfully, this cooler weather looks to stay for a while as we head into the second half of October. Today will continue to be a bit soggy, but we do have a break from the rain chances coming.

Today

While we've stayed relatively dry so far, expect for that to change as we push through the day. Light showers continue to drift towards our area as we speak and will reach us by this afternoon.

HRRR shows this funnel of showers moving through the Mid-South through the majority of this afternoon with showers leaving during the evening hours. (WeatherBell)

While showers should remain light, they will stick around long enough that you will likely want to keep your umbrella handy for the rest of the day. This will be a chilly rain folks. 


Additionally, temps will not warm up that much today. Temps currently sit in the mid 40s and will only rise into the mid 50s by the end of the day. This will leave our highs nearly 20 degrees below normal ("normal" is around 74). Luckily temps won't fall too much overnight, leaving lows around 46 under a mostly cloudy sky.

Tomorrow & Thursday 

After our wet day today we will see a brief, couple day break from all of the soggy rain. Tomorrow and Wednesday look like pretty nice days to embrace the fall weather. While some clouds will be present each day, enough sunshine will be around to help highs warm into the low to mid 60s (which is still a few degrees below average). Overnight temps will cool off into the mid 40s. 



Friday & Saturday

Our period of dryness could only last so long as rain chances return to end the work week and begin the weekend. The main time frame we are looking at showers is anytime from Friday afternoon until Saturday morning. Friday morning and Saturday afternoon/evening look to remain dry at this point. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s both days with overnight lows falling into the low 50s to near 50. 

GFS loop from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon shows showers arriving in the Mid-South during the afternoon on Friday and moving out early Saturday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Next Week

After Friday and Saturday morning's showers, we will begin to transition into a pretty dry period. Most models and outlooks for next week show minimal rain chances through the majority of next week. For those who have wanted a break from the soggy weather, it's coming.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) keeps the Mid-South in the slightly below average precipitation category for much of next week. (Pivotal Weather)
The good news along with this period of dryness is that temps will remain cooler. Even though high pressure looks to build in for much of next week, temps look to remain below average.

CPC keeps the Mid-South in the below average temperature category for next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder