Friday, June 14, 2019

Summer (humidity and rain chances) returns after a beautiful week

Wow this weather has been absolutely amazing! Below average temps around Memphis this week, all in thanks to a large trough situated over the eastern part of the U.S. Last night winds shifted however, and now it's time for us all to unfortunately return back to June. That means humidity, rain, and a couple of thunderstorms now in the picture for this weekend and next week. 


Pleasant and dry conditions are still sticking around for the mid-south to finish off our week, with partly sunny skies and highs resting in the lower-to-mid 80's. The winds have shifted now, bringing us southerly breezes at around 10 mph. More clouds building up overnight, which will hold our overnight lows up in the upper 60's. 

The NAM Model showing temperatures across the US. You can see the winds shift when the cold air moves out to the NE. This invites back in warmer air to the metro. (Pivotal Weather)


The heat and mugginess returns again, and I am not ready for that. Still going to have some peaks of blue shining through, with partly sunny skies. Very breezy southerly winds at 15-20 mph, with some gusts reaching up to 25 mph. Expect an increase in humidity, as Gulf moisture is pumped north towards the mid-south. Saturday night more clouds build up into the morning, with lows dropping down into the mid-70's. 

Sunday (Father's Day)

Sunday is Father's Day, and I wish we had a better grilling out forecast. An unsettled pattern will begin Sunday, and last later on into the work week as well. This brings rain chances for the day up to 40%. Partly sunny skies in the morning, with a chance of PM thunderstorms. As for outdoor activities, it seems the best time to get outside would be in the morning. Despite the rain chances and a breezy southwest wind, still expecting temperatures to near 90. Overnight temps are going to cool off into the lower 70's. 
GFS Model showing rain chances later in the evening on Sunday. (WxBell)

Next Week

Showers and thunderstorms all of next week? Can we just skip it? With a cold front expected to move into the Ohio River Valley, and stalling out to our north, this is causing more precipitation to move further south. While we don't expect wash-outs every day, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible every day. It's a little too early to know about any severe weather for next week, but we can't rule out a few strong storms here and there. The anticipated cloud cover and moisture in the air will keep us a bit cooler with highs for most days just a few degrees cooler than normal, mainly in the mid-80's. Thursday and Friday are also looking to have mostly scattered showers. Friday near normal temperatures return with highs in the upper 80's.
The GFS Model showing scattered showers from Wed-Fri. (Tropical Tidbits)

Well I wish I had a better forecast for everyone after having such a great week, weather-wise. But happy early Father's Day to all of the amazing dads out there! Wishing everyone a good week.

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

May 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

May Climate Recap

Temperatures for May were generally below average for the first half of the month and above average for the second half, ending about 2 degrees above normal for the entire month. Of the first 14 days, 9 featured below average temperatures. After the 14th, there were no days with below average temperatures as the heat was turned up and highs in the 60s and 70s were replaced by 80s and 90s. In fact, an average May has two days that top out at or above 90 degrees. This year, 7 out of 8 days between May 21-28 reached 90 degrees.

Following the trend in temperatures, precipitation for the month ended near average, but the month could easily be split about in half. May started wet with all but 0.10" of precipitation falling in the first 18 days of the month. Measurable rain only fell on one day for the remainder of the month with no measurable precipitation after the 22nd, at least at the airport. This resulted in soggy conditions through roughly the first third of May (3" of rain fell on the 8th-9th), a bit of drying in the middle third, and very dry conditions for the final third of the month.

Thunder occurred on six days at Memphis International in May, typically an active severe weather month. However, severe weather only occurred on two days of the month. Several hail reports, up to half dollar size, were received on the afternoon of the 15th. Then, on the evening of the 18th, a severe storm moved across the river, downing trees and power lines and cutting power to tens of thousands. An anemometer mounted at 35 feet in Tom Lee Park measured a wind gust to 59 mph. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued on both days.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 73.8 degrees (2.1 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 82.6 degrees (1.4 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 64.9 degrees (2.7 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (26th, 27th)
Coolest temperature: 51 degrees (13th)
Heating Degrees Days: 10 (9 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 289 (63 above average)
Records set or tied: Record high minimum tied (73 degrees, 21st).
Comments: Seven days recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees or warmer, 5 more than the average for May.

Monthly total: 5.17" (0.08" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (0.3 days below average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.73" (8th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days recorded more than 0.5" of rain and those same three days also recorded over 1" of rain.

Peak wind: West-northwest/45 mph (18th)
Average wind: 8.2 mph
Average relative humidity: 73%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 73.1 degrees
Average high temperature: 83.4 degrees
Average low temperature: 62.8 degrees
Warmest temperature: 93.7 degrees (26th)
Coolest temperature: 49.1 degrees (13th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 5.40" (automated rain gauge), 5.87" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 15
Wettest date: 1.58" (8th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: South/30 mph (8th)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 29.95 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.79 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 75%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.52 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 81%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - June

The June climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. The far Northern Plains into the Pacific Northwest and northern California are likely to feature above normal temperatures, while the Southern Plains should be cooler than normal. The far southeast U.S. will also likely be warmer than average. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis in June. Memphis typically averages 79.6 degrees for the month, or about 8 degrees warmer than May.

A wet June is forecast for much of the Southern Plains into the Intermountain West. Below average precipitation is expected in New England and across the far northern tier of the country, as well as in the Pacific Northwest. For Memphis, odds favor near average rainfall, which historically averages 3.63" in June.

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder