Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Summer Takes A Hike, Briefly

We've got some cooler weather in this forecast, along with a dry spell. This pattern will certainly give the Mid-South an early fall taste that many will enjoy, before temperatures start to return to a summer style this coming weekend.

Summer is taking a hike for the next few days, giving a taste of fall-like weather for the Mid-South

Tuesday and Tuesday Night


Thanks to yesterday's cold front that brought a decent amount of storms through the Mid-South, temperatures today will be pleasantly cool. In the wake of the front, moisture wrapping around low pressure to our north will help with the production of clouds that should help limit the amount of sunshine we get, so temperatures for this afternoon are forecasted to only top off around 83 with humidity in the "tolerable" range.


Tuesday night, skies clear out meaning that there will be a combo of both less humid air and no clouds to hold in heat, equaling a crisp, fall-ish night/morning for Wednesday. Temperatures dip into the upper 60s for the city, but rural areas could be cooler in the mid 60s.



Wednesday Through Friday Night


Wednesday through Friday, the forecast remains dry as a high pressure system gradually traverses from the plains, to the Ohio Valley, and eventually for the weekend moving to the Atlantic coast. Until it reaches the coast, that high will help keep flow from the north/northeast, keeping cooler/less humid air in place. Look for highs to be in the mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday, eventually climbing back to near 90 for Friday. Nighttime conditions, likewise, remain cooler with less moisture in the air: lows will be in the mid to upper 60s each night. Skies Wednesday could still see a few clouds, but Thursday and Friday will both see a good amount of sunshine.



The Weekend


All good things must come to an end, and that is the case for the weekend. Flow starts to return from the south starting Saturday. That means we will start to see our humidity slowly start to climb back up, along with our lows creeping back into the 70s. Saturday remains dry with a high in the lower 90s when our humidity first starts to increase. Skies remain partly cloudy through the day and into Saturday night when temperatures only drop to the low 70s.

Humidity continues to increase for Sunday, providing enough moisture to work with day-time heating and provide the chance of an isolated shower in the afternoon. Despite a high only in the low 90s, heat indices by this point will be back near the triple figures. Skies remain party cloudy. Sunday night, look for lows to return back to the routine: mid 70s



Next Work Week


The start of next work week will be very similar to Sunday's forecast. Look for humid conditions to remain, meaning summer is back and in full swing. Temps in the afternoons top in the lower 90s as heat indices approach the triple figures. Skies remain partly cloudy with the opportunity of a select few catching an isolated shower while most remain dry. At night, plan on a few clouds hanging around as temps struggle to drop with lows each night only in the mid 70s.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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Saturday, August 18, 2018

Storms possible through Monday night, then a taste of fall?

We've had a pretty interesting weather pattern here in Memphis over the past week. We've had days with above average temps and days with below average temps. Some areas have stayed pretty wet, while a lot of the metro area hasn't seen a drop recently. Luckily, cooler temps do look like they will be hanging around for the next few weeks. Along with that, uncertain rain chances will continue this weekend into the beginning of next week. However, by the middle of next week we will begin to see a pattern shift. If we can just make it until then, I bet you'll all like the rewards that Mother Nature is about to bring.

Today

Do you remember yesterday? Well, today appears to be very similar to what we experienced then. Highs will top off around 88 this afternoon with intermittent cloud coverage throughout the day. Dewpoint temperatures will coast in the 70s, leaving us with some pretty sticky conditions.



As for rain chances, most of us will probably stay dry today, but a shower or two cannot be ruled out. Overall we are expecting for the majority of the showers/thunderstorms to stay to the south of the metro area, but a scattered shower could creep towards us this afternoon into this evening as a weak cold front inches into the area and stalls.

HRRR radar loop now through 2 AM shows scattered thunderstorms primarily in northern MS with maybe a few showers closer to the metro area this afternoon. (WeatherBell)

Sunday

Another hot and humid day appears likely on Sunday as the front retreats to the north. Cloud coverage will continue to hang around, but temps will reach near 90 for our high. Dewpoint temps look to remain in the 70s, so expect mugginess to hang around. As for our rain chances, it appears that the majority of us will stay dry through a good portion of the day with the best scattered thunderstorm chances coming in the evening into the overnight hours as low pressure begins to crank up to our northwest. Things will stay pretty muggy overnight with temps only falling to 75.

Monday

I spy a pattern shift coming on Tuesday, but first we have to make it through a potentially soggy Monday. As a low pressure system develops north of the Ohio River Valley, a frontal system will be set up across the Mid-South, likely bringing some showers and thunderstorms. 

Weather Prediction Center's Day 3 surface map shows a low pressure system moving into Michigan with an associated cold front moving through the Ohio River Valley and down into the Mid-South early on Tuesday. (NOAA/WPC)
While we are not expecting a complete washout, we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible throughout the day, but any strong storms that develop would likely do so in the afternoon to evening hours and could pose a damaging wind or hail risk.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has us in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) on Monday. (NOAA/SPC)
Highs will be near 88 on Monday with 10 to 15 mph winds possible throughout the day. We will continue to keep an eye on the timing of these showers and thunderstorms for Monday.

Tuesday through the rest of the work week

After all of the rain chances and sticky humidity levels we've had recently, the second half of next week looks amazing. Thanks to a cold front passing through early on Tuesday, rain chances will back off to nearly non-existent and things will dry out. Temps will remain below average with dewpoints falling back into the 60s, and maybe even the 50s!

The NWS forecast temperatures for the next week shows highs dropping back into the mid 80s with morning lows into the mid 60s by the middle of next week! (WeatherModels.com)

It may not feel quite like fall, but it will definitely be nice to catch a break from those high humidity values. Plus a few nights next week will save us some dollars on our cooling bills!


Looking into the future

The best news of all to share is that below average temps may be here to stay for the foreseeable future. The last week of August and both of the first two weeks in September appear to feature below average temps.




Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder