Saturday, April 20, 2019

Easter Weekend forecast and next week's rain chances

Happy Easter Weekend Everyone!

We have a beautiful couple of days in store for us, that everyone can enjoy. An upper level low that brought us our past few rainy days has shifted east, and is currently resting over eastern Kentucky. As it continues to stall over towards the Appalachians, a high pressure system will make its way into the Mid-South, bringing us some much needed sunshine and trending towards some warmer temps. Bye bye rainy weather! (For the time being...)



Today


The overnight run of the NAM model shows temperatures every 3 hours through the weekend. Warmth returns after a chilly and wet day on Friday! (Pivotal Weather)
A great day to get out and about, temperatures are going to be around 15 degrees warmer than yesterday! Highs in the mid-to-upper 60's, with some gusty NW winds. Clear skies this evening will be the cause for a good decrease in our lows. Expect us to drop down to near 50, with a light wind.

Sunday


Looks like the Easter bunny might be taking a relaxed trip down the bunny trail this Sunday. The kiddos might even want to take a peak outside, with weather this good it shouldn't be passed up. Temperatures are expected to get into the upper 70's thanks in part to the sunny skies and the southerly winds. Sunday night won't be as chilly with lows in the upper 50's, but still mainly clear skies.

The First Half of the Work Week



That high pressure system is going to stick around into the beginning of our work week, and continue to bring us sunny skies and high temperatures near 80 degrees. Our weather is working to give you that Monday motivation with a forecast like that! Tuesday has a few clouds returning, but they won't hide the sun that much.

Wednesday to Friday

This is where things get a bit tricky. Models have been in a bit of a disagreement towards the timing of a low pressure system making it's way through the Mid-South in the middle of the week, but are starting to line up this morning.

The GFS model shows the slow progressions of a rainy system from northwest to southeast across the Mid-South mid to late week. (Pivotal Weather)

The GFS model (above) fairly closely matches the European model (below) with the highest rain chances on Thursday, which could be a wet day. There are slight chances Wednesday evening and the rain might linger into early Friday. Severe weather chances currently appear to be low, but we'll be monitoring that as we get closer to the event!

The European model shows the low pressure system moving in a little later, and lingering a little longer than the GFS. (WeatherBell)


A Longer Outlook



The European model predicts above average temperatures for the next 10 days once we get past today. The coolest day next week would be Thursday when rain is forecast. (WeatherBell)
Into next weekend we are going to see some very nice temperatures, typical for the month of April. Some days are a bit above average, making for some nice outdoor time. Mostly dry conditions for next weekend, with highs almost near 80 degrees.

Have a great weekend, Memphians!

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Wednesday, April 17, 2019

More rain and storms tomorrow, then a fantastic Easter weekend

Oh April. While I love the warmer temperatures, we always begin to see an increase in severe weather activity around this time of year. From a climatology standpoint, April is when we do see the most severe weather. After what has been a somewhat quiet week so far, things will be changing tomorrow as another round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. With these storms, there are some flash flooding concerns.

Luckily, this weekend Mother Nature looks to pay us back with some amazing conditions! If you have outdoor plans this Easter weekend, you are in luck because things look fantastic.


Rest of today

Cloudy conditions will remain through the evening and overnight hours as temps fall back to near 63. We will see winds remain around 15 mph overnight.

We've already seen a few, scattered showers develop to our south this afternoon. Luckily, most of us should remain dry until well after midnight. Rain chances will increase towards morning, with most of us receiving rain and a few t'storms by sunrise tomorrow morning as the first round arrives for the day.

Thursday

Heading into tomorrow, expect for showers throughout the majority of the day with heavier rain and some strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will near 69 with breezy winds around 15 mph.

While severe weather is possible for tomorrow, flash flooding is also a concern with the amount of rainfall we will be seeing. Expect for showers to be knocking on our doorstep by the time you wake up tomorrow morning (they'll probably arrive before many of us are up). These showers will continue through much of the day, so you'll want to keep the umbrella handy even if you have to battle in the wind with it. The best chance for a few dry hours is late morning into early afternoon.

A look at the NAM-3km model shows showers reaching our area early tomorrow morning, continuing through most of the day, and then additional, heavier rainfall arriving in the afternoon to early evening hours. (Tropical Tidbits)

Severe Thunderstorm Concerns
While we could see a few thunderstorms in the morning, we are not expecting any severe weather with this round. However, by tomorrow afternoon, an additional line of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the area, some of which could cause strong wind gusts. The main concerns for our area tomorrow are damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. The best chances for severe weather will again be to our south across central and southern MS and LA.

Much of the Mid-South is currently included in a "Slight Risk" (2/5) by the Storm Prediction Center. 

Flash Flooding Concerns
Our local NWS office has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our area from 1 AM tomorrow through 7 PM tomorrow night. We are expecting 2 or more inches of rainfall over our area.

The Weather Prediction Center shows between 2 to 3 inches of rainfall falling over much of the Mid-South tomorrow into Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. (WeatherBell)

Due to this, some flash flooding could occur in low-lying/poorly drained areas. If you do happen to come across a flooded road tomorrow, remember: turn around, don't drown!


Friday

As the low pressure system that will bring Thursday's showers and storms continues to drift eastward, it will do so very slowly leaving us with somewhat gloomy conditions on Friday. Shower chances will linger throughout the day, but should begin to clear out by Friday evening. Temps will be much cooler, with highs only nearing 58 and gusty northwest wind.

This weekend

Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures; it won't get much better than this! We haven't had a whole rain-free weekend in some time now, but luckily this weekend is shaping up to be quite nice. Highs will be a tad on the cool side on Saturday, around the upper 60s, while temps will return to the mid 70s on Sunday. Be sure to locate your sunglasses because you're going to need them for those Easter egg hunts!


Glance at next week

As we reach into the second half of April, temps are expected to continue warming next week providing us with some above average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center shows much of Mid-South expecting above average temperatures with those to our northeast expecting well-above average temperatures. (Pivotal Weather)

Highs next week are expected to remain in the mid 70s to near 80. It is April though, which means showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible by the middle of next week.


Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder