Sunday, June 23, 2019

Another round of storms... more to come after tonight?

As I type, the Memphis metro is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with yet another in a recent string of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poised to affect the region. This just a day after the final power restorations were made from the Wednesday night storms. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of the storm that brought 60-70 mph wind and 40K MLGW customers that lost power!

Tonight

Clearly, the impending storm threat is of greatest concern. For multiple reasons, I don't suspect this will be as bad as Wednesday night - chiefly a slightly less "loaded" atmosphere (though still plenty of instability to support strong to severe storms) and the "angle of attack" of the current MCS. In other words, it's apex is headed well to our north, leaving us with storms that form on an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of the system to the southeast. While that could mean the storms last a little longer in the metro as they stretch from northeast to southeast, they likely won't be quite as powerful. However, they could still be quite strong with damaging wind gusts to 50-60 mph the primary threat.

Severe weather information as of 3:00pm. See our social media feeds for updated info.
Please see our social media feeds (linked at the bottom of this post) for the latest information. This blog will not provide regular updates or hyper-detailed info. Just plan on staying weather aware through the late afternoon and evening hours and have a backup plan if you have any outdoor plans after 5pm.

Monday

Rain could continue off and on Sunday night into early Monday. Any lingering showers should depart the area by mid-day Monday, if they last that long. With the cold front not pushing all the way through the metro, some stickiness will linger, but it won't be as humid as this weekend has been. In addition, expect temperatures to remain below normal Monday with highs in the mid 80s.


Tuesday-Friday

The atmosphere returns to a summer-like setup with temperatures climbing back to the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints in the 70 degree range, and daily (mainly afternoon and evening) thunderstorm chances. No major system look to affect the area, but the summer heat and humidity, along with outflows from any previous storms, could combine to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Any storms that form in the heat of the day could pose a risk for localized heavy downpours and strong wind gusts from downbursts.



Hopefully none of these is like the linear convective systems we have seen produce strong wind the past several days!


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Details on potential severe weather Wednesday night

After a couple of days of scattered showers and storms but no major impacts, the primary weather system for the week is heading our way and will move through Wednesday night. This system brings our best chance of widespread rainfall, lightning and thunder, and the potential for scattered severe storms.

First, overnight tonight (Tuesday) and much of Wednesday appears to be dry for most, as there are no real "triggers" for showers and storms despite the humid airmass in place. In fact, tomorrow will likely be pretty hot (actually, right at normal) with highs near 90 and heat indices well into the 90s. Southwest breezes will also pick up in the afternoon with gusts in the 20s. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible in the heat of the afternoon, but your guess is as good as mine as to where. We'll go with a 30% chance of rain.

The mid levels of the atmosphere (18,000 feet or so) are shown by the GFS model, which loops out to Friday morning. Of primary importance is the "trough" or disturbance that moves through about two-thirds of the way through the loop, indicated by the shades of orange to red. That upper level support will provide some fuel for potential severe storms on Wednesday night.

Wednesday night is when a frontal system approaches, but more importantly, some upper level support that will serve to fire off thunderstorms in our humid and unstable air. The timing on these is still hard to pin down, but most of us will likely hear thunder overnight, and perhaps multiple rounds. By dawn, most of the rain and convective weather will be to our east, leaving diminishing clouds in their wake Thursday.

The morning run of the high-res NAM model, looping through Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night, shows minimal activity expected until Wednesday night when multiple rounds of storms are possible. (Take exact placement with a grain of salt at this point.) (WeatherModels.com)

As for the severe weather chances, the Storm Prediction Center currently has our area in the middle of a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for the overnight hours. Damaging wind will be the main concern, while some hail can't be ruled out. Of course, heavy downpours and lightning are a given. Tornadoes are not a concern.

Many areas could pick up over an inch of rain (and for many of us, that would be kind of welcome!). Chances of this risk increasing seem pretty low, especially given the overnight timing of the storms. Keep an eye on our social media feeds for any changes on Wednesday.


Heading into the weekend, rain chances appear pretty low (0-20%) from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning. It will be very toasty with highs creeping back up above normal (lower 90s) and lows in the muggy mid 70s. The next frontal system that should have an impact arrives Monday.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder