Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Sunshine holds on for a little longer, rain chances return by Thursday

Below average temps continue to be the main talking point of our overall weather pattern. This week has been fairly dry so far, but that looks to change for the second half of the week into the beginning of the weekend. Luckily, while we will see an increase in precipitation, our below average temps will continue for the foreseeable future.

Today

Yet another pleasant, fall day on tap as a high pressure system positioned over the southeast continues to keep rain chances away (for now). We could see a few additional clouds today compared to yesterday, but nonetheless partly sunny skies will remain. 


Highs will reach near 70 this afternoon with lows dropping down to 47 tonight. Winds will stay out of the northeast around 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow

While we won't see any major changes tomorrow, we will see a few differences. A weak cold front is expected to move through later today, which will help temps to drop a few degrees tomorrow. Highs will only reach the mid 60s. Additional high pressure will move in behind this cold front, allowing skies to clear out a bit more tomorrow.

Weather Prediction Center frontal map shows a cold front that has pushed through the southeast with a high pressure funneling in behind. (NOAA/WPC)

While mostly sunny conditions will remain through the first half of the day, clouds will begin to increase in the evening ahead of increasing showers late tomorrow night into Thursday. Lows will fall into the upper 40s.

Thursday & Friday

We will notice a distinct pattern shift for the second half of the week as we move away from sunny skies and more into a cloudy, rainy pattern. Thursday will be characterized by light showers throughout the majority of the day with light showers continuing into the first half of Friday.

GFS shows showers moving through the Mid-South throughout Thursday into the first half of Friday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Some interesting features are actually leading to this dreary period. To our west, an upper-level trough pattern will begin to develop on Wednesday. Energy from the northwestern U.S. combined with energy from the desert southwest and the remnants of Willa (currently a major hurricane expected to make landfall in Western Mexico) will help to create the shortwave pattern that will bring showers to our area.

An upper-level map from the GFS shows all three energy waves combining by the time they move over the Mid-South. (Pivotal Weather)

You will want to keep the umbrella handy Thursday and Friday. While showers should remain light, there could be some pockets of heavier rainfall worthy of an umbrella.


Additionally, this shortwave will help to keep temps below average through the foreseeable future. High temps will remain in the upper 50s to near 60 both days with overnight lows nearing the upper 40s to 50.

This Weekend

Clouds and some lingering, scattered showers will hang around into Saturday behind the aforementioned shortwave. Highs will near the mid 60s on Saturday with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s.

We will begin to see some cloud coverage clearing into Sunday as things dry out across the Mid-South. Partly cloudy conditions will be in place by Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the upper 40s once again.

Next Week

For those who have been enjoying all of this cooler weather, you are in luck! Cooler temps are expected to continue into next week.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) keeps our area in the well below average category through next week. (Pivotal Weather)
CPC continues to show a slightly above average precipitation pattern into next week. (Pivotal Weather)
You'll want to keep the extra blankets out for the overnight hours too; temps will continue to dip into the 40s overnight.


Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Cooler temps for all, rain chances today and to end the week

Oh fall, you have been so good to us this week. I don't know about you, but I have certainly enjoyed the cooler weather we have had over the last few days. Thankfully, this cooler weather looks to stay for a while as we head into the second half of October. Today will continue to be a bit soggy, but we do have a break from the rain chances coming.

Today

While we've stayed relatively dry so far, expect for that to change as we push through the day. Light showers continue to drift towards our area as we speak and will reach us by this afternoon.

HRRR shows this funnel of showers moving through the Mid-South through the majority of this afternoon with showers leaving during the evening hours. (WeatherBell)

While showers should remain light, they will stick around long enough that you will likely want to keep your umbrella handy for the rest of the day. This will be a chilly rain folks. 


Additionally, temps will not warm up that much today. Temps currently sit in the mid 40s and will only rise into the mid 50s by the end of the day. This will leave our highs nearly 20 degrees below normal ("normal" is around 74). Luckily temps won't fall too much overnight, leaving lows around 46 under a mostly cloudy sky.

Tomorrow & Thursday 

After our wet day today we will see a brief, couple day break from all of the soggy rain. Tomorrow and Wednesday look like pretty nice days to embrace the fall weather. While some clouds will be present each day, enough sunshine will be around to help highs warm into the low to mid 60s (which is still a few degrees below average). Overnight temps will cool off into the mid 40s. 



Friday & Saturday

Our period of dryness could only last so long as rain chances return to end the work week and begin the weekend. The main time frame we are looking at showers is anytime from Friday afternoon until Saturday morning. Friday morning and Saturday afternoon/evening look to remain dry at this point. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s both days with overnight lows falling into the low 50s to near 50. 

GFS loop from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon shows showers arriving in the Mid-South during the afternoon on Friday and moving out early Saturday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Next Week

After Friday and Saturday morning's showers, we will begin to transition into a pretty dry period. Most models and outlooks for next week show minimal rain chances through the majority of next week. For those who have wanted a break from the soggy weather, it's coming.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) keeps the Mid-South in the slightly below average precipitation category for much of next week. (Pivotal Weather)
The good news along with this period of dryness is that temps will remain cooler. Even though high pressure looks to build in for much of next week, temps look to remain below average.

CPC keeps the Mid-South in the below average temperature category for next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Friday, October 12, 2018

Fall Is Here, Sergio brings Sunday rain, then Cold Blast #2

It is no argument that Fall has finally arrived with the surge of cooler air. All of that is thanks to Wednesday's cold front that came through. We do have some changes coming in the forecast over the next seven days; however, no worries! Our cooler weather is here to remain. Instead, we do have a decent amount of rain on the way, thanks partially to Sergio.

Tonight


A weak boundary moving through this afternoon and into tonight is bringing a short lived chance at some stray rain this evening and into tonight. As mentioned, rain will be light. Likewise, the wave will be weakening as it moves through so not everyone will see rain.

Light showers move through this evening as a weak boundary moves through the Mid-South. Source: HRRR model, WeatherBell
Clouds that arrive with this rain will be sticking around overnight and into tomorrow. These clouds will hold in some heat tonight, preventing us from dipping into the 40s. Instead, we will see lows in the lower 50s. Rain chances drop off tonight and we remain dry until at least mid-day Saturday.

Tomorrow (Saturday)


We start the weekend dry Saturday, but Sergio, formerly a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific that made landfall in Baja California early this morning, plans to change that, along with the help of a new low pressure system. That new developing low is what picks up Sergio and brings it over to the Mid-South. The moisture from this tropical remnant will start to bring light, scattered rain as early as late Saturday afternoon. As we move into the night, rain chances quickly ramp up. Thanks to the clouds Saturday afternoon, high temps remain in the upper 60s. As it stands now, most of the University of Memphis football game vs. Central Florida should remain dry, though if rain does arrive during the contest, it will be light.

3km NAM brings 1-1.5 inches of rain for the Memphis area by Sunday afternoon thanks to Sergio's remnants. (WeatherBell)

Saturday night, rain chances ramp up as steady rain moves in thanks to Sergio's remnants and a northward bound warm front from the parent frontal system that will be steering Sergio. That lifting warm front will bring in some warmer air, so Saturday night we only drop into the upper 50s to right at the 60 degree mark.

Sunday and Monday


If you thought that rain was going anywhere any time fast, you were wrong. The front takes its sweet time getting out of the Mid-South. That said, look for showers through the day Sunday, Sunday night, and into the earlier half of Monday as well. Lighter precipitation is possible during a relative lull Sunday afternoon, but look for rain rates to pick back up Sunday night.

Rain chances remain high, seen here with simulated reflectivity from the GFS model for Sunday evening. (Tropical Tidbits)


Temps through this time will remain slightly warmer than what we've recently seen, until Monday. Sunday climbs into the lower 70s. Sunday night, as the front pushes through, temps will be dropping into the mid 50s. By Monday, the front will finally be bringing with it cooler weather, so our high around 63 will be earlier in the day.

Tuesday



Here comes some serious cooler weather, so prep for a true surge of Fall obsession! With the front moving through Monday, Tuesday looks to be the coolest part of our upcoming forecast. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s as clouds linger. As we move through the day, there will remain the slight chance of a shower as the front finishes its exit. Meanwhile, cooler air keeps funneling in. By that afternoon, we will only top off in the mid 50s. Talk about Fall-feels!

Look for a new surge of cool air Monday afternoon into Tuesday with lows Tuesday AM in the upper 40s. (WeatherBell)


Wednesday-Friday


Wednesday starts with another chilly morning in the upper 40s for lows. In fact, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings will see lows in the upper 40s. Highs remain pleasant not only for Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday as well where we will have highs in the mid 60s. Skies conditions will vary through this period as Wednesday will see a mix of sun and clouds. Thursday will see cloud cover increasing. By Friday, skies will be mostly cloudy as rain chances start to slightly increase with the introduction of a new system.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

September 2018 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

September Climate Recap

The month of September ended warmer than average overall, and the warmth was generally persistent throughout the month. With the exception of four below average days around the 10th, which featured a few days with highs in the 70s, every day was above average except three. In fact, nearly half the month (14 days) featured highs at or above 90°. This is nearly a week of 90° days above average. No records were set, but Memphis did reach 95 twice in the third week of September.

Precipitation was also fairly abundant in September with nearly 3 inches falling at the airport from the 7th to 9th and additional rainfall totaling nearly 2" from the 23rd to 25th. Flood Advisories were issued for the metro on the 8th due to heavy rainfall from thunderstorms, though no reports were received of flooding. There was no severe weather during the month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 77.8 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 85.5 degrees (0.4 degrees above  average)
Average low temperature: 70.1 degrees (4.9 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 95 degrees (19th, 20th)
Coolest temperature: 58 degrees (29th)
Heating Degrees Days: 1 (10 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 395 (79 above average)
Records set or tied: None.
Comments: Fourteen days recorded high temperatures at or above 90 degrees, which is 6.3 days above average.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.27" (2.18" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11 (3.7 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.26" (24th)
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Four days recorded more than 0.5" of rain.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Southwest/30 mph (7th)
Average wind: 6.6 mph
Average relative humidity: 76%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN


Temperature
Average temperature: 75.8 degrees
Average high temperature: 86.4 degrees
Average low temperature: 67.3 degrees
Warmest temperature: 96.8 degrees (19th)
Coolest temperature: 54.6 degrees (29th)
Comments: None.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.23" (automated rain gauge), 6.42" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 12
Wettest date: 2.15" (8th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/20 mph (26th)
Average relative humidity: 83%
Average barometric pressure: 30.02 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.74 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 76%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.66 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 76%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - October

The October climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of the southern and eastern United States. For Memphis, odds of above normal temperatures in October are 70%, near normal 27% and below normal just 3%. Memphis typically averages just 64 degrees for the month of October, or about 14 degrees cooler than the September we just experienced.


A wet October is forecast for much of the United States with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and eastern seaboard and southeast. For Memphis, odds of above normal precipitation in October are 40%, near normal 33% and below normal 27%, or not far from equal chances of above/below. October averages about 4" of rain in Memphis.


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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Above average temps are almost gone, make way for fall weather!

It's crazy to think that it is almost mid-October and yet we are still setting records. Just yesterday we tied the record for the most consecutive October days at 89+ degrees. Luckily, for those ready for #sweaterweather, fall looks to be on the horizon. A cold front will push through the area late tomorrow, ushering in much cooler temperatures. Additionally, these cooler temperatures look to be hanging around for a while, so get ready for some more fall-like weather folks.

We have had a few questions about Hurricane Michael currently in the Gulf of Mexico. While this system posses no threat to the Memphis area, this is a very powerful storm that is expected to make landfall along the Florida coastline tomorrow. If you are in the area vacationing for fall break, or have friends/family there, be sure to heed all evacuations and listen to local officials about your specific location.


For more information, visit the National Hurricane Center's website at www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
The cold front moving through our area tomorrow will actually help to quickly steer this storm to the East and away from the U.S. 

Tonight

Clouds will continue to increase this evening as our aforementioned cold front pushes this way. We could see a shower or two this evening, but the majority should hold off until early tomorrow morning into the daytime tomorrow. 

HRRR model shows a line of showers and thunderstorms slowly drifting eastward overnight and becoming more scattered tomorrow as they move across our area. (WeatherBell)

This blanket of clouds overhead tonight will help to keep temps pretty warm with lows only reaching the mid 70s. 


Tomorrow

Our much anticipated cold front arrives tomorrow, but first we must get through one more day of highs in the 80s. 


Overall, tomorrow's cold front will be a little different than the cold fronts we usually see this time of year. We are not expecting a washout and no organized severe weather is expected. Really, many of us may be a tiny bit disappointed in the rainfall we see. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible throughout the day, but should remain fairly scattered especially into the afternoon hours.

WPC graphic shows the cold front being through our area by tomorrow evening. Rain chances will decrease as the front pushes farther eastward. (NOAA/WPC)

The majority of any scattered showers that do develop should begin to move out by tomorrow evening. Skies will gradually begin to clear tomorrow evening along with cooler temps moving into the area. Lows are expected to dip into the 50s tomorrow night.  


Thursday & Friday

Highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Lows near 50 (and maybe even in the upper 40s in some parts). Oh, and no rain chances. Any way you slice it or dice it, fall looks arrive with a bang on Thursday and stay around for a while. I know a lot of people have been waiting on it, so get your fall activities ready!


This weekend into next week

Say hello to more fall this weekend! Temps will coast in the 70s through the weekend, however, yet another cold front looks to pass through early next week, dipping our high temperatures down even further into the 60s. That's right, highs in the 60s with overnight lows maybe even dipping into the upper 40s. 


Besides some rain chances Sunday and Monday, things look to dry out behind this second cold front into next week. 

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) keeps the Mid-South temps below average through the majority of next week. (Pivotal Weather)
CPC keeps our area right along the slightly above to above average category for precipitation through next week. (Pivotal Weather)
I hope you all enjoy the cooler weather that's on the horizon; I am certainly ready for it!



Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, October 5, 2018

Above normal temps continue, a glimmer of hope towards the middle of next week

Well, Mother Nature certainly hasn't let up on the heat this week as we have neared record temperatures a few days and even tied the record high yesterday. For the near future, things do not appear to change. Highs will remain above average and way too hot for October if you ask me. Rain chances will remain isolated at best. We do have some exciting news as we look ahead towards the middle to end of next week, so you'll just have to keep reading to find out what it is.


Today

We've already reached the upper 80s today with no intentions of stopping there. Plenty of sunshine will help temps to continue to climb this afternoon as we near our high of 91. Why won't these summertime temperatures go away? Well, we have a high pressure currently parked over much of the southeastern U.S. and until something can push this high pressure out, our temps will remain above average unfortunately (or fortunately if you like the hot weather).

High pressure remains well in control over most of the southeastern U.S. (NOAA/WPC)

Temps will fall to 73 overnight under a clear sky.

This weekend

Busy weekend ahead here in Memphis with the Mempho Music Festival and the University of Memphis homecoming game Saturday evening. Depending how you look at things, Mother Nature has provided some good and some meh for this weekend's weather.

The good news is that rain chances will remain minimal, so most of us won't have to worry about rain chances "raining on our parade". This means that sunshine will be around through the entire weekend. The not so good news is that we won't really see any relief from the well above average temperatures we have been experiencing. Highs will tip toe to near 90 both days this weekend with heat index values reaching even higher than that. 


This may be a bit strange to stay for October, but sunscreen and plenty of water is advised for this weekend. With all of these fun, outdoor events, don't let the calendar date fool you; it'll honestly feel more like August than October this weekend. Try to stay cool folks!


A quick glance into next week

For the first half of next week, things look to remain the same. Southerly winds will continue to usher in muggier temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the lower 70s. Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s, with isolated thunderstorm chances in the afternoons.

But wait, there is a glimmer of hope as we look to next week.



Medium-range models are hinting at a cold front passage towards the middle of next week, which could bring some decent showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures behind it. While we can't make any promises, this front should usher in some highs in the 70s, which would be really nice to have given the above average streak of high temperatures we're currently in.

The WPC's surface progression map for early Thursday shows a cold front pushing across the Mid-South. (NOAA/WPC)

This is several days away, so timing and location of the front could still change. However, at least there is a hope that cooler temperatures are on the horizon.



Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder