Rainy and breezy as the calendar flips, but what about the weekend?

A generally cool and dry pattern changes for a few days as we head to the end of November and into the last month of 2023. A storm system exiting the Rockies and heading across the southern Plains and into the Deep South will bring us rainfall and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the next 36 hours. It could also affect your outdoor Christmas decor! But it is also a weekend chock full of seasonal activities, so what about rain chances and temperatures for the weekend? Let's dive in!

Thursday/Thursday night

A bit milder weather is expected tonight with southerly wind and high clouds moving in as temperatures only reach the 30s in rural areas. The rest of us will see lows at or above 40 tonight. Clouds thicken tomorrow as low pressure moves through the southern Plains and rain spreads towards the Mid-South, arriving around mid-afternoon as temperatures peak near 60. Rain picks up heading into the evening with a few rumbles of thunder possible as well. 

Forecast precipitation via the NWS National Blend of Models shows totals should generally run above a half inch, but less than an inch in the metro. (WeatherBell)

Southerly wind also increases Thursday night with frequent gusts to 30 mph and a few possibly approaching 40 mph! A Wind Advisory has been issued so make sure the outdoor decor is tied down well, or maybe just moved inside if possible for those inflatables! Temperatures remain mild overnight - in the 50s - as rain falls much of the night. 

Probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph on Thursday (night). Frequent gusts above 30 mph are likely. (NWS-Memphis)

Friday/Saturday

Most rain will be gone by Friday morning, but with the front still to our west as it's parent low pressure center moves into the mid-Mississippi Valley, it will remain mild with a breezy southwest wind. High temperatures should be well above average despite persistent cloud cover, peaking in the upper 60s. 

The Friday morning weather map shows rain moving to the east as a cold front approaches from the west. The front arrives Friday evening dry. (NWS/WPC)

Behind the cold front on Friday evening (which will pass through with no additional rainfall), temperatures drop to the mid to upper 40s Saturday morning before rising to the lower 60s in the afternoon. Clouds will continue to stream overhead with a north wind at 5-10 mph. Overall, it should be a pretty good day for the St. Jude Memphis Marathon and other outdoor activities.

Sunday and beyond

As the late-week system finally pulls to the east, sunshine returns Sunday and continues through the first half of the week, at least. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, but not cold, with lows mostly in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s until Wednesday when it gets a bit cooler. Overall, not much to complain about with this forecast! 

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Drought relief and possible strong storms Monday, otherwise good weather for Thanksgiving week

The lack of soaking rain in the past three months has resulted in quite the drought, measuring "extreme" in parts of the metro. But typically November can be counted on to bring some relief from dry fall conditions, and the next system on Monday should do just that.

A comparison of the Drought Index for the Mid-South from early August to this week tells the story about the lack of beneficial rainfall. (UNL Drought Monitor)

The rainfall deficit in the past 90 days is shown above. For the Memphis area, we only received about 25-50% of normal rainfall in this period. Conditions are worse to our south and east. (NOAA/NWS)

We'll end the weekend with similar conditions to how it started though, as Sunday looks very pleasant with plenty of sunshine, dry air, and highs in the mid 60s. A light wind shifting from the northeast to the east is a sign of what's to come though, as low pressure moves into the Plains, turning those winds around to the southeast Sunday night when a smattering of light showers are likely to start moistening the atmosphere and "priming the pump" for Monday.

By Monday, southeast wind will pick up and rain chances increase as the day goes on, particularly by mid-afternoon, as low pressure moves into AR. Highs will again be in the mid 60s, but dewpoints surge from the 30s Sunday to the 50s Monday. By late afternoon, some showers could be heavy. As of Saturday evening, it appears that low pressure system will pass by just to the north of the metro on Monday night, bringing a round of thunderstorms during the evening hours. 

The surface map for 6pm Monday shows a cold front and approaching low pressure center to our west and a warm front lifting north into the area. Locations south of that warm front could see a few strong storms Monday evening. (WPC)

To our south, where instability will be maximized, some storms could be strong to severe across southern AR into MS and eventually (later in the night) western AL. While thunder will be possible, perhaps likely, in the metro, the severe weather threat should stay just to our south, though a storm could produce strong wind gusts locally. 

The severe weather threat for Monday evening is mostly to our south, though a couple of strong storms are possible in north MS, per the Storm Prediction Center outlook posted Saturday. (SPC)

In addition, rain will be heavy, particularly from around rush hour through the evening, tapering off as a cold front moves through around midnight or so. Up to 2" of rain is possible for this event, though most places will likely remain under that, but receive at least an inch. This will certainly help with the drought, keeping it from getting any worse if nothing else.

There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall that could result in flooding for the entire area on Monday. (Weather Prediction Center)

Behind this system, cooler and drier weather sets in once again for the rest of Thanksgiving week. A few lingering showers are possible Tuesday morning with temperatures that pretty much sit in the 50s all day on north wind. Skies clear for mid-week and conditions remain dry through at least Friday. Look for morning lows in the 30s to near 40, including for Thanksgiving Day, and highs generally in the mid 50s under fair skies. Sounds like a good time to take some time off work, eat too much, and maybe get the Christmas decorations out!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

October 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

The month of October was generally very warm, and averaged more than a two degrees above normal. We started the month in the low 90's, dropped to the 70's by the 4th, then into the 60's by the middle of the month. A gentle warmup followed, with highs in the upper 80's by the 23rd. We finally saw much cooler temperatures on the 29th as a strong cold front moved in, with highs dropping to 49 on the 30th!

Departure from normal temperatures for October for the Lower 48 states

The ongoing drought continued in October with only just above 1.5" of rain for the month (almost 2.5" below normal). The drought was particularly bad in the counties to the south, and creeped northward into most of the Mid-South throughout the month. All of the metro is now somewhere between a moderate drought to an extreme drought. Most of the rain (1.26") occurred at the end of the month. We saw a trace amount on the 4th, 0.3" on the 5th, then only trace amounts on the 15th and 19th, followed by 0.03" on the 27th, 0.29" on the 28th, 0.42" on the 29th, and 0.52" on the 30th. In addition, the Mississippi River at Memphis set a new record low river stage at -12.04' on the 17th, 1.23 feet lower than the previous record of -10.81 set October 21st of last year.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 67.0 degrees (2.4 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 77.4 degrees (2.3 degrees above average) 

Average low temperature: 56.7 degrees (2.7 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (1st) 

Coolest temperature: 33 degrees (31st) 

Heating Degrees Days: 88 (28 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 158 (102 above average) 

Records set or tied: Record high tied (86) and record high minimum (69) on the 24th

Comments: None

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 1.57" (2.41" below average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 5 (2.5 days below average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 0.94" (29th-30th) 

Snowfall: None

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: North/40 mph (6th) 

Average wind: 7.4 mph 

Average relative humidity: 61%

Average sky cover: 49%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 63.6 degrees 

Average high temperature: 76.1 degrees 

Average low temperature: 53.3 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 91.3 degrees (1st) 

Coolest temperature: 29.2 degrees (31st) 

Comments: High temp of 91.3 (1st) was a record for that day (since 2005); 29.2 (31st) was a record low for that day (since 2005)

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 1.56" (automated rain gauge), 1.86" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 5

Wettest date: 0.55" (28th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: South/24 mph (26th)

Average relative humidity: 72% 

Average barometric pressure: 30.03in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.98 degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 69% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 2.04 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 69% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder