Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Strong to severe storms likely Wednesday night

Another severe weather event is poised to affect a large area, including the Mid-South, on Wednesday. The area under a heightened risk includes much of the Ohio Valley, mid to lower Mississippi Valley, to as far west as Dallas.  Locally, the main threat window is Wednesday night between about 9pm-3am. (The event will not last that long, but models still disagree on exact timing. Expect storms to last for an hour or so, likely no more than two hours.)

But first, a chance the kids join you in bed tonight...

Prior to tomorrow night, scattered thunderstorms are again expected to fire up tonight along a frontal boundary that lingers over the area. As it lifts north as a warm front and the low level wind picks up overnight, storms will develop, and could be noisy. The well-known HD "HRRR" model thinks they could affect the area for multiple hours overnight. That could be overdoing it, but it might be one of those nights where the kids and pets crawl in bed with you. Fortunately, it appears the severe threat is not too high. We are in a level 1 risk in Memphis, with a few strong gusts or small hail the main threats.

A level 1 (Marginal) risk of severe weather exists tonight. (SPC)

Wednesday primes the pump for nocturnal storms

Much of Wednesday daylight hours will be dry, very muggy and warm, and windy. About what you would expect before a strong storm system in the spring! A few showers are possible, but overall the day sets the stage for the night by priming the pump with a lot of storm fuel (based on temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints near or above 70). The wind profile Wednesday night will also be fairly strong which will be supportive of  the maintenance of severe storms once they get going. That means high wind to 60-70 mph is possible. Also, cold air aloft will support the potential for large hail (up to 2") in any storms that tap into the unstable air and wind shear. While tornadoes are a bigger threat well to our north, the wind shear values will be supportive of rotating storms that could spawn a spin-up tornado or two. Heavy rain is also expected, perhaps 1-2".

The severe weather threat for Wednesday night, likely between 9pm-3am

After the storm

By sunrise Thursday, storms will be long gone and we will actually get some sunshine. North wind will bring in drier air, though temperatures will still make it to the low 80s. Cooler air arrives Thursday night as we drop into the 50s. Friday-Sunday will see very nice springlike conditions with sunshine, morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs in the 70s.

Prepare now!

But first, we'll get through Wednesday night by preparing ahead of time. Garage (or carport) your vehicles tomorrow night if at all possible, secure anything outdoors that you want to keep around a while, and have multiple ways of receiving severe weather warnings while sleeping. We of course highly recommend our own StormWatch+ app, available for iOS and Android in your app store. Wake-me-up audio for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is included in the alert subscription.

p.s. In case you had not heard, we are rolling out a brand spanking new website on Saturday! Be sure to check MemphisWeather.net around noon for the unveiling!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, May 3, 2024

April 2024 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

April Climate Recap

The month of April was warmer than normal by almost 2 degrees, a trend repeated across a large portion of the country east of the Rockies. As is typical in April, large temperature swings occurred with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50's to the mid 80's, while lows ranged from near 40 to the upper 60's. Overall, the month was skewed warm through as the temperature reached 85 twice towards the end of the month, which was 12 degrees above normal. Overall, two-thirds of April days ended above average and a record high minimum (warmest low temperature) was set on the 1st (68 degrees), breaking the old record of 66 in 1884.

Departure from normal temperatures for April for the Lower 48 states

Precipitation was over 2.5" below normal for the month (about 55% of normal), despite recording rain on nearly half of the 30 days in April, which is four more than average. Most rain that fell was spotty and light although the wettest period was between the 7th-11th, with nearly 2" of rain falling.  Totals for the month ended up at 3.32" at the airport and 3.82" in Bartlett, while the normal amount for the month is 5.87". 

Severe weather occurred on the 2nd, 7th, and 8th with multiple reports of hail and wind damage. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were in effect each of those days, while a couple of Tornado Warnings were issued north of the Memphis metro on the 2nd after storms moved out of the immediate area.

Severe weather reports received by the National Weather Service for the month of April (hail shown as pink/white icons and wind damage as yellow icons)

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 65.1 degrees (1.9 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 73.8 degrees (0.4 degrees above average) 
Average low temperature: 56.3 degrees (3.3 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 85 degrees (26th & 30th) 
Coolest temperature: 41 degrees (5th & 22nd)
Heating Degrees Days: 93 (37 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 102 (26 above average) 
Records set or tied: Record high minimum broken (68 degrees on the 1st)
Comments:  None

Monthly total: 3.32" (2.55" below average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 14 (4.4 days above average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.76" (2nd) 
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: South/45 mph (29th) 
Average wind: 10.4 mph 
Average relative humidity: 65%
Average sky cover: 59%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 65.2 degrees 
Average high temperature: 76.0 degrees 
Average low temperature:  55.2 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 86.2 degrees (27th) 
Coolest temperature: 37.0 degrees (22nd) 
Comments: None

Monthly total: 3.82" (automated rain gauge), 3.72" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 15
Wettest date: 0.74" (7th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/27 mph (11th)
Average relative humidity: 67% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.98 in.
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.06 degrees 
Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 68% 
Average dewpoint error: 2.53 degrees 
Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 63% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder