The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 5)

Here we go!  The top 2 Mid-South weather stories of 2011 are revealed below.  To read about the other 9, follow the links below:

• Part 1 (#11 Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies, #10 MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting, #9 Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence)
• Part 2 (#8 Dual early-season accumulating snow events, #7 MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+)
• Part 3 (#6 Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season, #5 Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May)
• Part 4 (#4 January-February snowstorms contribute to the snowiest winter in 25 years, #3 "The Summer of '11" - third hottest Memphis summer in recorded history)

#2. Effects of the April 25-28 Super Outbreak on the Mid-South
It has gone down in the history books as the super outbreak to rival the original of 1974.  In fact, many of the stats indicate that it has surpassed the Super Outbreak of 1974 in many respects. The month of April was the most active tornado month in U.S. history and the 4-day period from April 25-28 saw over 200 tornadoes produced in 5 southeastern U.S. states, killing 316 and injuring more than 2,400.  15 of the tornadoes were rated violent (EF-4 or 5).  Total damage is estimated at $4.2 billion from storms on this day alone (all statistics from "The Historic Tornadoes of 2011," a NOAA Service Assessment).

Memphis area severe weather reports from April 25-27, 2011

The nearest significant damage from this outbreak was not the highly-publicized Alabama tornadoes, but a monster EF-5 that nearly wiped Smithville, MS (130 miles southeast of Memphis) off the map.  It was the first EF-5 recorded in the U.S. in three years and occurred almost simultaneously with another EF-5 about 100 miles south near Philadelphia, MS. Maximum wind was estimated at 205 mph along the 37-mile path of the twister.  In all, 17 people lost their lives and 40 more were injured.  A recap of the event, authored by WTVA meteorologist Jennifer Watson and MWN meteorologist Erik Proseus, appears on the MWN Blog and a video tribute can be found here.  Below are photos taken in Smithville three months after the storm by Erik.

Indeed, even though there were dozens of severe weather reports in the metro over the 3 day period (see image above), the Memphis area was actually spared from what could have been utter chaos similar to what was seen in places like Smithville, MS, Tuscaloosa/Birmingham, AL, and many other places in the southeast.  The greatest effect on Mid-Southerners from this outbreak though, in our opinion, was not from property damage, but on our psyche.  The extended period of destructive weather was well-forecast, beginning nearly a week ahead of time, and it received a lot of airtime (and a lot of hype) leading up to, through, and after the events that occurred.  The Memphis area was under a moderate risk of severe weather for two days, upgraded to a high risk on one of those, and then a slight risk on the day that all hell broke loose in MS and AL.  Multiple waves of severe storms, all capable of producing damage and potentially loss of life, passed through the region and at times it seemed the tornado sirens would never stop sounding.

All of this affected the psyche of the general public in different ways.  Some grew weary and began ignoring the warnings, which led to a complacency that is far more dangerous than the Weather Service missing a tornado warning.  Others grew fearful and became paralyzed, which leads to indecision during critical times.  Both of these have the opposite effect of what SHOULD be the public's reaction to severe warnings, which is to take action.  Part of MWN's mission is to ensure that the public is properly informed and prepared in case of severe weather; another part is to make sure that the public knows when to exercise their safety plan.  Through our severe weather nowcasting on social media, we hope to accomplish both of these. Our stats for the months of April and May indicate that we are doing a good job in both regards.  However, if we can reach more people, our hope is that the sense of complacency is replaced by preparedness on a broader scale. If it saves one life, it is well worth the effort.

#1. Mississippi River rises to within inches of an all-time record at Memphis
We now come to the #1 event in our countdown of the Top 11 of ’11 and without a doubt it’s an event Memphians and Mid-Southerners are sure to remember for years to come. With a long, snowy winter for much of the country in the rearview mirror, the warmth of spring began the annual melt of the deep snowpack in the northern states, sending large amounts of water into area rivers and tributaries. All of this water would begin flowing downstream into the Mississippi River by April. Meanwhile, multiple excessive rain events during the spring across the Ohio Valley (300% of normal) and Mid-South led to even more water pouring into the Mississippi River watershed. This combination of events led to a “perfect storm” of sorts, setting the table for an historic flooding event for the area.

While flash flooding and tributary flooding of rivers like the Wolf and Loosahatchie were a significant problem early on, especially in areas of northern and eastern Shelby County, the impacts from flooding on the Mississippi became much more severe and widespread. Record or near-record crests were forecast at multiple points, including Memphis. Making matters worse, backwater flooding from the Mississippi into the area tributaries would keep those water levels high as well, putting even more people at risk. As the waters began rising and homes and businesses became threatened, people evacuated to higher ground, waiting to see how high the river would go. That day came on May 10, and with much of the national media in Memphis, the river crested at 48.03 feet, just inches short of the all-time record of 48.7 feet during the Great Flood of 1937.  Pictures taken by MWN meteorologist Erik Proseus are contained in the photostream below.

In the days following, the waters would slowly recede, allowing people to return home and begin the cleanup process. Slowly but surely, affected businesses reopened, including the Tunica casinos which had been closed for weeks.  While the floods were devastating for many, they also brought people in our area together. Whether it was to donate to those affected or fill sandbags to keep the high waters at bay, it presented a classic example of the community spirit we often see in the area. Though the Great Flood of 2011 is now a memory, it’s an event that will be well-recorded in the history books and a memory that will remain with many of us for the rest of our lives.  For NOAA's perspective on this billion-dollar weather disaster, watch the video below.

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Thanks for following along on this five-part blog series.  It's definitely been an amazing weather year in the Mid-South and across the nation.  In fact, the U.S. experienced a record ELEVEN billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011.  Let's hope that 2012 is a quieter year weather-wise!  I also want to thank MWN intern Kevin Terry for contributing to this series, as well as his dedication as a blog and social media poster for MWN!  Kevin is signed on with MWN through the first half of 2012 and will continue with his regular duties through that time.

Follow along with MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter throughout 2012 for the latest weather conditions, forecasts, stats, and nowcasts.

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 4)

For the past 3 days, we've been counting down the Top 11 Mid-South weather stories of 2011. Today continues the countdown as we approach the top two events on Saturday. First, we unveil numbers 3-4. To catch you up, if you missed the first 7, here are the links:

• Part 1 (#11 Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies, #10 MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting, #9 Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence)
• Part 2 (#8 Dual early-season accumulating snow events, #7 MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+)
• Part 3 (#6 Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season, #5 Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May)

# 4. January-February snowstorms contribute to the snowiest winter in 25 years
For the third straight winter, snowfall was prevalent in 2010-2011.  Most of that snow fell in 5 events during January-February 2011. For the most part, each of the events were well-forecast and dropped "significant" snow (for the South) somewhere in the metropolitan area.  A brief recap of each event follows.

January 9-10 snowfall totals

January 9-10: The preferred storm track for accumulating snow materialized early in the month as low pressure moved along the Gulf Coast and an upper-level low traversed central MS. Snowfall totals were highest just north of the low as 6-10" fell over north MS.  The immediate metro area received 3-4", while areas north of the metro picked up1-2". The graphic at left summarizes the totals (click for larger image).  A Winter Storm Warning was issued ahead of the storm and the official total for Memphis was 3.0".

January 20 snowfall totals

January 20: Ten days later, another upper-level low, this one trailing a cold front, caused rain to change to snow during the afternoon hours, which continued into the evening. Snowfall totals ranged from 1" north of the city to 3" to the south.  Memphis International recorded 2.0" for this event.  Snowfall totals are shown in the graphic at right.

Snow cover visible on satellite Jan. 26

January 25: A very similar setup to January 9 occurred again on the 25th, only with lesser amounts of moisture, thus lower snowfall amounts.  Rain changed to snow in the late afternoon and continued through the evening, dropping 1.1" at the airport with higher amounts to the east and north.  Snow mainly fell over west TN with this event.


February 7: While most were people were looking ahead to a much larger event due in on the 9th, a quick-hitting system dropped amounts ranging from 0.2" at Memphis Int'l to 1.8" at MWN in Bartlett.

February 9 snowfall totals

February 9: This well-publicized and well-forecast event once again followed the preferred storm track as low pressure rode the Gulf Coast, pumping moisture into the Mid-South where cold air resided.  Highest snowfall amounts were again found over north MS and east-central AR where 3-6" amounts were common.  Lowest amounts were found over northeast AR and northwest TN.  In the metro, amounts were consistently in the 2-4" range, including 3.1" at Memphis.


By the end of the the winter, Memphis Int'l had recorded 9.7" of snow for the season, 6.1" over the normal of 3.1" and the most since the winter of 1987-88.  In addition, there were 6 days with measurable snowfall, the most since 1984-85.  Mid-South snowfall totals for the winter are shown in the graphic below.

Winter 2010-2011 snowfall amounts for the Mid-South

# 3. "The Summer of '11" - third hottest Memphis summer in recorded history

Many Mid-Southerners like to complain about the heat and humidity of the summer.  Many are transplanted northerners, others tolerate it for different reasons.  And while an average Memphis summer can be "sho'nuff" hot and humid, the summer of 2011 left even the most tolerant of us begging for 24x7 A/C - and for good reason.  By the first week in September, the National Weather Service had officially placed the summer of '11 in the record books as the third hottest behind the previous year (2010) and the benchmark for Memphis summers - 1980.  In fact, three of the past five summers, including 2007, are ranked in the top 5 hottest of all time (records go back to the 1880s).

The average temperature for this summer (meteorologically, June-July-August) was 84.6 degrees, which was 1.0 degree off the record summer of '80.  Several daily records were broken, including the record high of 106 on August 3, which fell 2 degrees shy of the all-time heat record set on July 13 in the storied year of 1980.  A few other sweltering stats about this summer: 10 daily heat records were set or tied; the average high and low in July was 95 and 77, respectively; and only 10 days during the three-month period failed to reach at least 90 for a high (five of those in mid-August). The heat started early with three records of 99 set in the first week of June and the June-July period tied 1980 for the hottest ever at 84.9 degrees.  For more details on each month's climate data, click these links:  June  July  August  Besides the heat, humidity levels were also abnormally high, even by Memphis standards, for long stretches this summer.  Heat indices soared above 110 and overnight lows failed to drop below 80 on several occasions, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings for the area.  With two summers in a row making the top 3, we're due for a cooler summer in 2012!

This leaves only the top 2 stories remaining!  What events topped one of the snowiest winters in recent memory and the third hottest summer ever?  Find out tomorrow as we conclude the "Top 11 of '11!"

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 3)

Continuing on in typical year-end countdown fashion, today's post contains weather events #5-6 in our "Top 11 of '11" - Mid-South weather stories of 2011. If you missed numbers 7-11, you can find them in part 1 and part 2 of this blog series.  Before I forget, let me also thank MWN intern Kevin for being a major contributor to this series!  If you follow MWN on Twitter (and if not, you should be), you'll recognize the next two stories as #memstorm events.

# 6. Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season
With the spring severe weather season upon the Mid-South, by early April few notable events had taken place. The most significant event to that point was a strong squall line of thunderstorms which passed through the northern portions on February 24. However, April wouldn't be around long before the severe weather season kicked into high gear with two high-impact events affecting the metro in a two-week period.

The first significant severe weather outbreak took shape on April 4. With a powerful upper level disturbance moving out of the Southern Plains, combining forces with a strong surface cold front and low pressure area, numerous thunderstorms began developing over Arkansas on the morning of the 4^th, quickly moving east. By noon, the thunderstorms began congealing into a large line segment as they crossed the Mississippi River, tapping into abundant low-level moisture and instability in place. This led to rapid intensification of the storms as they moved through the metro area, resulting in widespread, damaging straight-line winds. Wind gusts of 60-80+ mph led to numerous downed trees, power lines, and even some structural damage. Power outages were widespread with 70,000+ customers in the MLGW service area losing power. The line of thunderstorms continued growing and organizing as it pushed east, resulting in a nearly continuous swath of severe weather across the Southeast over the next 24 hours. In fact, the linear storm system, known as a “derecho” (like “Hurricane Elvis” in 2003), resulted in one of the largest severe thunderstorm outbreaks on record, with over 1400 reports of severe weather received (see image to left).

In the days following the April 4 outbreak, several smaller severe weather events affected the metro, including a damaging wind event on April 15, but it was April 19 when the next notable outbreak began to evolve. Very similar to the events of April 4, thunderstorms began forming over Arkansas and, as they approached the metro area during the evening, they began consolidating into a squall line, producing damaging straight-line winds. As the storms pushed east, the most significant damage again occurred in Shelby County. Wind gusts of 60-75 mph led to more downed trees, power lines and minor structural damage. This meant more significant power outages with 64,000 MLGW customers affected, some being the same who lost service on April 4. While the event wasn’t as intense as April 4, the rapid succession of severe weather during the month was already beginning to take its toll on Mid-South residents.

With April starting off on such an active note, some began to wonder if these events were just a foreshadowing of things to come and whether the worst was yet to come. Unfortunately and tragically, the 2011 severe weather season was just unfolding.

# 6. Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May

Severe weather season was particularly harsh in 2011, starting with the early April rounds described above and continuing all the way until the end of May.  For the Mid-South, after 6 weeks of strong weather systems, nerves were frayed leading up to the last week in May as local meteorologists (MWN included) began building up an event that would take place on Wednesday, May 25, with the passage of another strong cold front.  The "edgy-ness" only got worse after the same storm system dropped an EF-5 bomb on Joplin, MO on May 22.

On the morning of the 25th, the Storm Prediction Center placed west TN and east AR under a "High Risk" threat (see image) - something we only see a couple of times a year at most - and indicated the "threat for tornadoes, some potential strong to violent and long-tracked" as they issued a Tornado Watch for the metro at 12:30pm.  A broken line of supercells formed along the cold front to our west in the afternoon and swept across the river into a moist and very unstable airmass during the early evening. Several Tornado Warnings were issued during the evening and there were several reports of large hail and damaging wind, though thankfully no tornadoes were ever confirmed.  The event could have been much worse given the conditions that had set up ahead of the system and it's history over previous days.  This round of severe weather would mark the end of severe weather season for the Mid-South and the start of one of the hottest summers on record.  More on that as we continue to countdown the biggest Mid-South weather events of 2011 (tease...)  Tomorrow we bring you events #4 and 3, with the top 2 weather stories of 2011 coming on New Year's Eve.

A reminder that during severe weather, MemphisWeather.net uses social media (specifically Facebook and Twitter) to "nowcast" events as they unfold.  We'll tell you where the storms are, where they are going, who they will affect and how, and when things have calmed down, all in our no-nonsense, no-hype manner. Join us, won't you? 8,000 others can't be wrong!

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 2)

Yesterday on the blog, we began the "Top 11 of  '11" series in typical Dave Letterman fashion, counting down #'s 11, 10, and 9.  If you missed it, you can find part 1 of this series here. Today we resume with #8 and #7, as we head towards #1 on New Year's Eve.  So without further adieu...

# 8. Dual early-season accumulating snow events
After a cold and snowy 2010-2011 winter - the snowiest in nearly 25 years (more on those events later in the countdown) - anticipation was high leading into the 2011-2012 winter on whether that trend would continue. It seems the answer came relatively quickly with the Mid-South experiencing two early-season snowfall events before winter officially began, including a very rare November snow!

The first of the two events occurred on November 28. As moderate to heavy rain fell throughout the afternoon, an upper-level low pressure center developed and tracked across the Mid-South, allowing colder air aloft to work towards the surface. As this took place, rain began changing to snow during the evening and though air and ground temperatures were borderline (generally above freezing), accumulations took place on grassy areas and other non-paved surfaces. While snow amounts in the immediate Memphis area were minor (generally a half inch or less) northern and eastern areas of the metro saw more significant accumulations, with 1-2” a common occurrence and localized higher amounts. Even more significant snow fell further to the north, with up to 4-6” reported in some areas of NE Arkansas, NW Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel. This rare November snowfall event was the earliest of the season in nearly 20 years!

Just nine days later, on December 7, as another upper level system was tracking across the region, rain again began changing to snow in the metro area during the early morning hours. As the snow persisted through rush hour, amounts began adding up, despite borderline temperatures once again an issue. By the time snow came to an end around mid-morning, 1-2” of snow lay across much of the metro, higher for most locations than seen on November 28^th. Some areas of Tipton and Fayette Counties even saw snow totals upwards of 3-4 inches! Though this system did not receive the hype of November 28^th beforehand and may have surprised some, it was a very well-forecast snow event, with MWN ramping up its forecast for snow in the 24 hours prior to the event, nailing the timing of snowfall to the hour the evening before!

Since these two early season events, the weather pattern in the Mid-South has transitioned into a milder one, but with such an active start, we’ll see if any events in the 2012 portion of this winter end up making next year’s list!

# 7. MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+
Back in the late winter of 2011, when our only mobile technology was a mobile version of the website, I saw a need for having dedicated "apps" for iPhone and Android if we were to continue to evolve and grow (in part thanks to demand from you, our customer!). Enter Ben Deming, who was also mentioned in yesterday's post at #9.  Ben and I quickly hit it off and created a win-win scenario whereby MWN's dedicated following is the ultimate winner!  In early March, version 1.0 of the MWN iPhone app hit the market. Just one short month later, Ben was able to crank out the Android app and MWN had the majority of the smartphone market covered with a dedicated app.  Features included current conditions, StormView Radar, MWN Forecast, Mid-South weather alerts map, various links, and the MWN Twitter feed.

Shortly after the app was released, I decided to take it a step further. Why not provide alerts to app users if they were in the path of the storm? I knew if implemented correctly that it could be a hit, mainly because people are siren-weary and frequently don't know where they are relative to the warning. Show them where they are, where the warning is, and alert them only if they are in the warning box. Enter StormWatch+ and the proclamation by the NWS that mobile alerting technology is part of the future of severe weather alert dissemination. After much testing and tweaking, the iPhone version of StormWatch+ was sent to Apple in mid-September. A well-documented 3 1/2 months later and we're still waiting on it's final approval by Apple to be released to you.  The Android version was released in mid-November.  Our plans for 2012 include a web-based interface that will allow those without smartphones to receive text messages or e-mail alerts of severe weather just as smartphone users receive push notifications.  The key is to only alert people if they are in harm's way.  We hope that this technology will go a long way towards reducing the apathy that the public has towards the severe weather warning process and ultimately save lives.

Tomorrow we reveal #'s 5 and 6 of the top 11 Mid-South weather events of 2011.  For our Twitter followers, a couple of #memstorm events are up next!  Stay tuned!

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 1)

Everybody does Top 10 lists to end the year (or daily if your name is David Letterman), so MWN decided we should too.  Only once we put together the list of Top 10 Mid-South weather stories of 2011, the list was 10+1, or 11 if you are up on your 1st grade math!  So we decided that since it was 2011 we were talking about, we'd make an exception and call it the "Top 11 of '11".  No word yet on whether there will be 12 next year... so without further delay we bring you (in true Letterman fashion, counting down from 11) the first 3:

"The Top 11 of '11" - Mid-South Weather Stories from MemphisWeather.net

# 11. Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies
On the evening of October 24 around 9pm, I was checking my Twitter feed when people started reporting seeing a red glow in the sky across the southern states, including many Mid-South locations.  Reports from NC to AR, including locations as far south as northern AL and MS, were flooding my feed of mainly weather and news accounts. Quick sleuthing and some timely and informative tweets pointed to the event being a rare Aurora Borealis, which resulted from a coronal mass ejection from the sun early that afternoon. The image below was one that I highlighted in a blog post that evening that further described the event, including what causes the Aurora and why it was red.  While not unprecedented, it has been years since the Aurora has been visible this far south in the U.S.  Perhaps more of this type of solar activity will be possible as the lately-dormant sun enters an active sunspot period that peaks in a little over a year?

Aurora captured in Corning, AR on October 24, 2011

# 10. MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting
While not a "weather event," one of the facets of weather reporting that has taken off in the past year is the explosion in nowcasting the weather via social media.  Nowcasting is very-short-term forecasting, most often encompassing only the next 1-4 hours.  More and more, operational meteorologists, broadcast professionals, and even enthusiasts are turning to Facebook and Twitter to update their audience on current weather events and solicit reports, particularly during severe weather episodes.  Even the National Weather Service has begun using social media.

MWN is proud to have been at the forefront of this new style of weather reporting, having started nowcasting for the Memphis metropolitan area nearly three years ago in the spring of 2009.  Thanks to some wild weather in greater Memphis this past year (more on these events as we continue the countdown) and momentum generated during our first couple of years on social media, MWN's nowcasting service quickly became well-known.  We are proud to say that we went "wall-to-wall" for every severe and winter event in 2011 and the growth in our follower-ship responded accordingly, tripling on both Facebook and Twitter!  Thank you for trusting us to keep you updated, safe, and informed during hazardous (and even placid) weather conditions!

• AP story on nowcasting, featuring MWN's Erik Proseus and David Drobny of Nashville
• "Tennessee Matters" interview with Erik on nowcasting, which was heard on the Tennessee Radio Network (MP3)
• MWN nowcasting on Facebook and Twitter

Exposure produced by MemphisWeather.net tweets on February 25, 2011

# 9. Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence
There will be plenty of weather events in our Top 11 (in fact, we're saving many of the top spots just for those), but one other weather "story" for MemphisWeather.net this year was the addition of a few individuals to our team that allowed us to grow exponentially and expand our product and service offerings that directly benefit you.

• Though not employed by MWN, one of the best decisions I made in early 2011 was contracting with Ben Deming (@bendeming) to design and code our first-ever mobile applications.  Ben possesses a very broad skill set that allowed him to develop not only our iPhone app, but also an Android app, and assist with other minor software and server-related issues.
• Late this summer, a decision was made that, to continue to keep up the ambitious pace that MWN had grown to, we needed some help. The search began for individual with basic meteorology knowledge that was also teachable, interested in social media, and a good communicator, among other things.  It didn't take long to find the person who has evolved into my right hand man - social media nowcaster and blogger, Kevin Terry (@jterry0).  Kevin quickly embraced the mission of MWN, took over a sizable part of the nowcasting requirements, and allowed me to work on expanding MWN's presence through new services and marketing efforts.  Kevin will remain with MWN through at least June 2012.
• Though those are the two individuals I deal with most often, there are certainly others whose contributions have allowed MWN to rapidly expand this year.  They include: Wayne Randall, owner of IT company Nextek, whose generous offer of server space in his data center ensures the reliable delivery of products and services to MWN; Amy Howell (@howellmarketing) and Alys Drake (@alysdrake) of world-class marketing firm Howell Marketing Strategies, who assist in making sure the MWN story is told; and countless others in Memphis and Mid-South social media and business circles who help us disseminate our words and information to the masses - you know who you are, and we thank you!

Those are the first 3 of the "Top 11 of '11"! We'll reveal a couple more each day through New Year's Eve here on the MWN Blog  (and I promise they won't be weighted nearly as heavily on MWN but much more about actual weather events!).  What Mid-South weather event do you think should be #1 this year?