Showing posts with label outbreak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label outbreak. Show all posts

Saturday, December 31, 2011

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 5)

Here we go!  The top 2 Mid-South weather stories of 2011 are revealed below.  To read about the other 9, follow the links below:
  • Part 1 (#11 Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies, #10 MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting, #9 Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence)
  • Part 2 (#8 Dual early-season accumulating snow events, #7 MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+)
  • Part 3 (#6 Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season, #5 Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May)
  • Part 4 (#4 January-February snowstorms contribute to the snowiest winter in 25 years, #3 "The Summer of '11" - third hottest Memphis summer in recorded history)


#2. Effects of the April 25-28 Super Outbreak on the Mid-South
It has gone down in the history books as the super outbreak to rival the original of 1974.  In fact, many of the stats indicate that it has surpassed the Super Outbreak of 1974 in many respects. The month of April was the most active tornado month in U.S. history and the 4-day period from April 25-28 saw over 200 tornadoes produced in 5 southeastern U.S. states, killing 316 and injuring more than 2,400.  15 of the tornadoes were rated violent (EF-4 or 5).  Total damage is estimated at $4.2 billion from storms on this day alone (all statistics from "The Historic Tornadoes of 2011," a NOAA Service Assessment).

Memphis area severe weather reports from April 25-27, 2011
The nearest significant damage from this outbreak was not the highly-publicized Alabama tornadoes, but a monster EF-5 that nearly wiped Smithville, MS (130 miles southeast of Memphis) off the map.  It was the first EF-5 recorded in the U.S. in three years and occurred almost simultaneously with another EF-5 about 100 miles south near Philadelphia, MS. Maximum wind was estimated at 205 mph along the 37-mile path of the twister.  In all, 17 people lost their lives and 40 more were injured.  A recap of the event, authored by WTVA meteorologist Jennifer Watson and MWN meteorologist Erik Proseus, appears on the MWN Blog and a video tribute can be found here.  Below are photos taken in Smithville three months after the storm by Erik.


Indeed, even though there were dozens of severe weather reports in the metro over the 3 day period (see image above), the Memphis area was actually spared from what could have been utter chaos similar to what was seen in places like Smithville, MS, Tuscaloosa/Birmingham, AL, and many other places in the southeast.  The greatest effect on Mid-Southerners from this outbreak though, in our opinion, was not from property damage, but on our psyche.  The extended period of destructive weather was well-forecast, beginning nearly a week ahead of time, and it received a lot of airtime (and a lot of hype) leading up to, through, and after the events that occurred.  The Memphis area was under a moderate risk of severe weather for two days, upgraded to a high risk on one of those, and then a slight risk on the day that all hell broke loose in MS and AL.  Multiple waves of severe storms, all capable of producing damage and potentially loss of life, passed through the region and at times it seemed the tornado sirens would never stop sounding.


All of this affected the psyche of the general public in different ways.  Some grew weary and began ignoring the warnings, which led to a complacency that is far more dangerous than the Weather Service missing a tornado warning.  Others grew fearful and became paralyzed, which leads to indecision during critical times.  Both of these have the opposite effect of what SHOULD be the public's reaction to severe warnings, which is to take action.  Part of MWN's mission is to ensure that the public is properly informed and prepared in case of severe weather; another part is to make sure that the public knows when to exercise their safety plan.  Through our severe weather nowcasting on social media, we hope to accomplish both of these. Our stats for the months of April and May indicate that we are doing a good job in both regards.  However, if we can reach more people, our hope is that the sense of complacency is replaced by preparedness on a broader scale. If it saves one life, it is well worth the effort.

#1. Mississippi River rises to within inches of an all-time record at Memphis
We now come to the #1 event in our countdown of the Top 11 of ’11 and without a doubt it’s an event Memphians and Mid-Southerners are sure to remember for years to come. With a long, snowy winter for much of the country in the rearview mirror, the warmth of spring began the annual melt of the deep snowpack in the northern states, sending large amounts of water into area rivers and tributaries. All of this water would begin flowing downstream into the Mississippi River by April. Meanwhile, multiple excessive rain events during the spring across the Ohio Valley (300% of normal) and Mid-South led to even more water pouring into the Mississippi River watershed. This combination of events led to a “perfect storm” of sorts, setting the table for an historic flooding event for the area.

While flash flooding and tributary flooding of rivers like the Wolf and Loosahatchie were a significant problem early on, especially in areas of northern and eastern Shelby County, the impacts from flooding on the Mississippi became much more severe and widespread. Record or near-record crests were forecast at multiple points, including Memphis. Making matters worse, backwater flooding from the Mississippi into the area tributaries would keep those water levels high as well, putting even more people at risk. As the waters began rising and homes and businesses became threatened, people evacuated to higher ground, waiting to see how high the river would go. That day came on May 10, and with much of the national media in Memphis, the river crested at 48.03 feet, just inches short of the all-time record of 48.7 feet during the Great Flood of 1937.  Pictures taken by MWN meteorologist Erik Proseus are contained in the photostream below.


In the days following, the waters would slowly recede, allowing people to return home and begin the cleanup process. Slowly but surely, affected businesses reopened, including the Tunica casinos which had been closed for weeks.  While the floods were devastating for many, they also brought people in our area together. Whether it was to donate to those affected or fill sandbags to keep the high waters at bay, it presented a classic example of the community spirit we often see in the area. Though the Great Flood of 2011 is now a memory, it’s an event that will be well-recorded in the history books and a memory that will remain with many of us for the rest of our lives.  For NOAA's perspective on this billion-dollar weather disaster, watch the video below.



Thanks for following along on this five-part blog series.  It's definitely been an amazing weather year in the Mid-South and across the nation.  In fact, the U.S. experienced a record ELEVEN billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011.  Let's hope that 2012 is a quieter year weather-wise!  I also want to thank MWN intern Kevin Terry for contributing to this series, as well as his dedication as a blog and social media poster for MWN!  Kevin is signed on with MWN through the first half of 2012 and will continue with his regular duties through that time.

Follow along with MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter throughout 2012 for the latest weather conditions, forecasts, stats, and nowcasts.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Recap of April 27-28 tornado outbreak

AP Photo, Tuscaloosa, AL
A tidal wave of information is available on the web and in the media surrounding what has become the deadliest tornado outbreak since the Great Depression (surpassing even the 1974 Super Outbreak).  There are so many sources and information, especially with regards to numbers, that it is nearly impossible to keep up, or even to know who or what is right.  In that vein, I have re-printed below a news article from the horse's mouth - NOAA.  Though it was released just yesterday afternoon, there are already a couple pieces of information that are outdated. I have updated those if I have a reputable source (updates in red). This is being published at 1pm Saturday, April 30.


April 2011 tornado information
Updated, April 29, 2011, 4:50 p.m. EDT

April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak statistics

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011.
  • During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 288 tornadoes.
  • NWS issued outlooks five days in advance, watches hours in advance, and tornado warnings with an average lead time of 24 minutes. NWS issued warnings for more than 90 percent of these tornadoes.
  • The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.
Current media reports indicate the death toll is 318 337 people, and rising. This makes the event the third second deadliest tornado outbreak on record [CNN].
  • The April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak is the deadliest since the March 21, 1932 March 18, 1925 tornado outbreak that had 332 747 fatalities [CNN].
  • Based on combined NOAA, historical research records and current fatality estimates, the April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak ranks 6th in single day total fatalities in the United States history. The historic research records extend back to 1680.
  • The deadliest single tornado on record was the Tri-State Tornado (Mo., Ill., Ind.) on March 18, 1925, when 695 died.
  • Based on combined NOAA and historical research records, the deadliest single day for tornadoes was March 18, 1925, with 747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri-State Tornado).
Month of April 2011 (and record monthly) tornado statistics

NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been more than 600 tornadoes thus far during the month of April 2011.
  • The previous record number of tornadoes during the month of April was 267 tornadoes set in April 1974.
  • The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.
  • The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is around 160.
2011 Year-to-Date (and record annual) statistics

NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been 835 tornadoes so far this year.
  • The previous yearly record number of tornadoes was set in 2004 with 1,817.
  • May is historically the most active month for tornadoes.

Tornado reports for April 2011 - more than 600
"Rotation tracks" for April 27, 2011 - tracks of storms that were rotating (not necessarily producing tornadoes).  Click here for more information.
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Monday, April 18, 2011

Spring severe weather season well underway - another round on the way

April 14-16, 2011 will go down in the history books for the devastating tornado outbreaks that occurred over at least 17 states from Oklahoma and Kansas to Mississippi and Alabama to North Carolina.  Fortunately, the worst of the weather missed the Mid-South, though severe storms affected portions of the area Friday.  The map below, courtesy of The Weather Channel, shows the widespread nature of the tornado reports.  An interactive version of the map can be found here.

Plot of tornado reports on April 14-16, 2011, courtesy TWC
According to TWC, there were (preliminarily) 29 tornado reports on the 14th, 73 on the 15th, and 51 on the 16th, for a total of 153.  The average month of April has 163!  Compared to previous "outbreaks," the Super Tuesday outbreak on Feb. 5, 2008 (when Hickory Hill and portions of northern Shelby County were struck) had 86 tornadoes and 57 deaths.  May 29-31, 2004 had 170 tornadoes and 3 deaths, and the "Super Outbreak" (widely considered the worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history) had 147 tornadoes and 309 deaths.  According to Storm Prediction Center statistics, the preliminary number of tornadoes for the month of April stands at 371.  Our thoughts and condolences go out to all of those who were affected directly or indirectly by the past week's storms.

Unfortunately, there is no respite from the changing seasons, in which warm springtime airmasses collide with lingering winter airmasses, causing a battle that rages in the atmosphere above us.  The upcoming week is forecast to be a stormy one with several chances of rain and thunderstorms for much of the eastern half of the nation.  The map below shows the total precipitation forecast through Saturday morning from the NWS.  3-5" of rain is expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, while the metro area is in an area forecast to see 2-3" of rain this week.

In the Mid-South, we'll see a small chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon through the night as a disturbance moves by to our north along a warm front that is moving north through the area today. The atmosphere will remain unstable Tuesday, but will be capped by warmer air aloft that should keep storms from forming most of the day.  It will certainly be very warm (mid 80s), humid and windy (gusts to 30-40 mph) though as the next major storm system approaches. 

Tuesday is when that storm system, which will be centered to our north, triggers the next potential severe weather outbreak, which will continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night.  A Moderate Risk of severe weather is in place for the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (extending as far south as NE AR and NW TN), while a Slight Risk is in place for the Memphis metro area.  See the risk area in the map below.  I expect a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move through the region on a cold front late Tuesday night, after midnight, through early Wednesday.

Tuesday-Tuesday night severe weather risk area
We'll have continuing chances of thunderstorms right through the extended period, focused on times when fronts are nearby. These times are still somewhat uncertain, though we will keep you updated with the latest information.
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Thursday, February 5, 2009

Remembering the Super Tuesday Outbreak in the Mid-South

It was one year ago today that many Mid-Southerners were placing their votes on Super Tuesday with the threat of severe weather hanging over the region. That threat became reality late in the afternoon when the first tornado warning for Shelby County was issued as a tornado set down near Arlington and tore through NE Shelby County. About an hour later, another twister, this one stronger, touched down in DeSoto County south of the Memphis airport and moved quickly ENE into the airport area and Hickory Hill, destroying whatever was in its path and killing 3 in a warehouse. This tornado was briefly caught by live TV cameras mounted high above the city as it moved through Hickory Hill. Later that evening, we all remember the tragedy, and yet good fortune, as an EF-4 hit Union University in Jackson, TN, injuring 51 as it tore apart the full dorms, but miraculously sparing everyone's life. In all, 23 tornadoes touched down on Super Tuesday in the Memphis National Weather Service's area of responsibility, 9 of which touched the 5-county metro area and 7 of which were rated EF-2 or higher. Nine souls were lost that day and over 100 injured. It is a day that will live on in Mid-South weather lore - February 5 ,2008. Though much of the damage has been repaired and life goes on, many people will never outlive the memories of that day. Below are a couple of the pictures I took in the days following. You can view all of my pics here. The map at the top shows the paths of all tornadoes from 2/5/08 in the NWS-Memphis area. For more information on these storms and other tornadoes in the Mid-South, visit the very complete and detailed Mid-South Tornado Database.
A home in northeast Shelby County missing the second story

The Sharp Manufacturing plant in Hickory Hill, heavily damaged by a tornado