Showing posts with label social media. Show all posts
Showing posts with label social media. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Reviewing the past decade at MemphisWeather.net

As we come to the end of the 2010's and get ready to start messing up the 3rd digit when we write or type the year 201 2020, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at the last 10 years at MemphisWeather.net (MWN).

From weather website to trusted weather source

The past decade has witnessed a complete transformation of MWN. What was then (in 2009) a fairly primitive website providing some local weather information mainly for my family and friends (and their first, and maybe in a few cases second, order acquaintances) has now become a full-featured independent source of weather information for the eight-county Memphis metropolitan area reaching thousands of you routinely.

The rise of social media

It was in early 2009, now approaching 11 years ago, that MWN first appeared on Facebook and Twitter, just about a year after this blog was started. While those mediums have remained steadfast, others have come (hello IG!) and gone (sayonara Google+)! Social media has completely transformed our way of communicating with you! In fact, we're ending the decade with nearly 41,000 followers of MWN's Facebook and Twitter accounts alone!


Tweet #1! ↓



Social media nowcasting

These social platforms are now the primary way of communicating our weather information to you and allow you to just hit "reply" to get your questions answered or comments seen! The dawn of the social media age also brought about our own rendition of "wall-to-wall" severe weather coverage, called nowcasting, to a hyper-local (Memphis-centric) audience. I am proud to say that MWN was one of the first in the nation to begin providing this "second screen" weather coverage nearly a decade ago! The model has been copied or borrowed in many forms and fashions successfully all across the country. Severe weather nowcasting on MWN social media platforms continues to this day for all severe and winter weather events that affect the Memphis metro! (We're working on a few more of those winter ones! :-) )

#TeamMWN

I've been able to keep the lamps trimmed and burning on the social media side thanks to the amazing work by a team of dedicated social media interns. Employing the assistance of a revolving team of (typically) Mississippi State University meteorology students, these young people learn the ropes of practical meteorological application in the social space as they hone their academic skills in the classroom, making for well-rounded meteorologist candidates upon graduation.


Several have moved right into broadcast, private or public sector weather positions with the skills they learned at MWN in their tool belt! I'm proud of each of them for their dedication to you all, as well as the promising futures each of them have individually in their chosen career path! Thank you to all current and former members of #TeamMWN! And #HailState!



MWN mobile application

Besides social media and the full-featured website that provides most of the information we disseminate, the MWN mobile app - first released early in 2011 - provides a one-stop shop for viewing all of our content, including the most popular products from our website (like the MWN Forecast and StormView Radar) as well as all of our social media feeds. It has also gone through multiple iterations with new features and updated designs along the way. The app has proven to be a great addition to the stable of services offered by MWN. I hope that all of you reading this have it on your phones at this point! (If not, click here to learn more and download!)



Launch of Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC and StormWatch+

Also in about a month, on National Weatherperson's Day (February 5), Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC will turn 10 years old! Cirrus operates as the umbrella organization for MWN, JacksonWeather.net (MWN's regional sister site covering the rest of west TN), and StormWatch+, the severe weather alerting tool built into the MWN mobile app and also available as its own national mobile application.

StormWatch+ was deployed initially eight years ago and has gone through multiple iterations since then. In fact, the latest upgrade to the national app, version 4.0, was just released to iOS users the day after Christmas and our first Android app to hit the national market is just around the corner! We've got big plans for our apps in 2020 that we're excited to announce in the near future!


Cirrus Weather also contracts with multiple outdoor events in the Memphis area for on-site weather consulting services that are collectively attended by well over 200,000 patrons each year. These venues have chosen to ensure their guests' safety and comfort by hiring a professional to monitor local weather and serve as the meteorological subject matter expert in the execution of their operational safety plans.


MWN By the Numbers - 2019

Here are some quick facts for the year as we look towards 2020:

  • 75 - MWN Blog posts authored
  • 543 - MWN Forecasts written
  • 17 app updates released (MWN iOS/Android and StormWatch+ iOS)
  • 8 - MWN Social Media Interns (served at some point during the year)
  • 22,293 - Facebook Fans 
    • 1,155 new fans in 2019
  • 18,587 - Twitter followers 
    • 876 new followers in 2019
  • 8.9 Million Twitter post impressions

To end, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to all of you who have chosen to make MWN one of your trusted local weather sources for the Memphis area over the past decade! We look forward to making 2020, and the rest of the next decade, even better in service to all of you!



Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Thursday, January 26, 2017

AMS: Best Practices for Sharing Weather Information on Social Media

Earlier this year at the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) 2017 Annual Meeting in Seattle, the AMS Council adopted a set of "best practices" for publicly sharing weather information via social media. As most of you are aware, there are many choices when it comes to consuming weather information. From local TV, to national cable channels, to government and private company websites, to NOAA Weather Radio, to social media, to mobile apps, and even your refrigerator... anyone (or anything) can produce weather data. That information may originate from a degreed or certified meteorologist, a broadcaster or reporter, a young person with passion but little to no training (that was me 25 years ago!), or (more often these days) just a computer model run through the Internet of Things.

At MemphisWeather.net, we our proud of the fact that our forecasts are human-powered by a meteorologist with 25 years experience in the Memphis area and our social media content is generated by either that same meteorologist, who also holds the National Weather Association Digital Seal, or meteorologists-in-training under the careful tutelage of said meteorologist. We have espoused the practices adopted by the AMS since our first tweet in April 2009. In the vein of full disclosure and public transparency, we thought it would be a good idea to list those best practices and let you decide if you agree with our (admittedly-biased) assessment. Here is a statement from the document on who should observe these practices:
The best practices outlined below aim to encourage the dissemination of high-quality weather information to the general public on social media platforms (i.e., mobile and web-based technologies)...These best practices are also designed to help social media users know what to look for and what to avoid when seeking weather information.
In other words, the best practices are an outline not only of what good weather information should look like on social media, but also what you should expect from your "trusted sources." With that, here they are, with sub-comments (in parentheses) edited only for length.

Best Practices for Publicly Sharing Weather Information Via Social Media

The overall goal should be delivering a time-sensitive product that communicates weather information clearly and professionally commensurate with the users’ understanding of the science. A quality social media weather information service should:

  • Differentiate between short-range forecasts, extended-range forecasts, and outlooks. (In short- or medium-range forecasts (i.e., less than 7 days), offer as much detail as the science allows. Do not imply that extended-range forecasts (i.e., 8 days and beyond) are as reliable as short-range forecasts. Clearly identify outlooks as such and avoid misrepresenting an outlook as a specific forecast of weather elements for a specific area.)
  • Recognize the limitations of numerical weather predictions. (When displaying or sharing computer model forecasts, identify them as such. )
  • Communicate uncertainty and be transparent. (When displaying or sharing forecasts that are highly complex and/or involve longer lead times, communicate the full range of scenarios. Communicate the degree of confidence in their forecasts and educate their users about the level of agreement among forecast models and the likelihood of a particular outcome. Respond to all comments and replies to their social media posts in a manner that offers insight into their forecast reasoning while being professional and respectful.)
  • Carefully and responsibly craft headlines and key messages. (If providers work in organizations where they do not have total control of all weather-related content, they should work diligently to educate and influence the appropriate content producers regarding the responsible communication of weather information.)
  • Offer a schedule for updates (While a regular schedule may not be applicable, providers of social media weather information should advise users when they can expect more information.)
  • Include NOAA watch, warning, and advisory products or hazardous weather outlooks.
  • Use discretion when disagreeing with “official” NOAA forecasts, especially during high-impact events. (The reasoning behind the forecast and the disagreement should be explained.)
  • Alert the public about appropriate response to severe weather events.
  • Include climatology information. (Put the current or predicted weather conditions into perspective with background climatology.)
  • Identify where and when weather data originated and provide appropriate credit.
  • Provide links to other relevant data. (This is especially true during hazardous weather situations when the user may need a source for weather alerts or information about the appropriate response to the hazardous weather.)

So, do we measure up? Let us know what you think in the comments. We promise none will be censored! And thanks for trusting MemphisWeather.net for your weather needs!


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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

On blizzards, communicating uncertainty, hype, and YOUR responsibility

The "Blizzard of 2015" has been the biggest weather story so far this winter due to multiple factors - from the promises of a "historic, epic, life-threatening, crippling" storm, to the equally stunning "forecast bust" for the media epicenter of the world, to the claims of hype, to apologies by officials. After a day or so to let the dust settle and the hotheads get it all off their chest, I figured I'd put my thoughts on the record.

The Blizzard of 2015 Forecast

First let me qualify my interest in this non-local story (we tend to stick to Memphis-centric events). My main job is as a meteorologist for a Fortune 500 company and my responsibilities include tracking and forecasting large-scale national (and some international) weather events. So I had done my own forecast for this event, even though it didn't take place locally. As my regular readers know, another great interest of mine is in communication, specifically the communication of weather information in a manner that the lay person (you) can clearly understand and take action on. Upon review and analysis, and you may be surprised by this, the repercussions of the blizzard were actually more about (perhaps poor) communication than the actual forecast.

I'll set the stage with the snow accumulation forecast (from the official government source, the National Weather Service - top image) and the results, also from NOAA/NWS (bottom image). I've focused on the NYC-Boston corridor, since that's where the majority of people affected live and work. You'll notice that, generally, the NWS did a very nice job with a high-impact, upper-end event that resulted in 30"+ in 5 separate states and several "top 10s" for single event snowfall. You'll also notice that west of a line from VT to western MA to western CT to NY/NJ excluding Long Island (or basically the blue areas on the bottom map), the forecast went awry, in some cases by a lot.



NWS forecast snowfall accumulation for this Blizzard of 2015 as of early Monday morning (5am). The event peaked from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Widespread 18-24"+ totals were expected from NJ well north into New England.

A zoom of actual snowfall amounts from the blizzard. Eastern New England was buried in 1 1/2 to near 3 feet of snow, but there was a sharp "back edge" that extended from NYC to VT (top center of image). Graphic courtesy NOAA/WxBell.
So as far as the actual snow forecast was concerned (I'm not getting into the wind, coastal flooding, etc), the biggest issue was with the back side of the storm, where a tight gradient in snowfall totals set up. Notice in particular the disparity between Long Island, with 12-22" of snow, and far eastern NJ, with 2-5". It just so happened that the "all-or-nothing" line was just east of Manhattan. (Of course, as a Memphian, I would argue that 4-8" doesn't classify as "nothing," but I digress...) Actual totals in the NYC metro included 6.5" at Newark, NJ on the west to 11" at JFK and LaGuardia Airports on the east.


First of all, I argue that the chief complaint with this storm being a "bust" was due to where the "bust" occurred - in the most populous city with the loudest media in the world (that's not said as an insult to NYC or national media, but simply as fact). How many networks had positioned cameras 50 miles east on Long Island where 18" was common exactly as forecast? If that "back edge" had set up in the middle of the Dakotas and some cattle ranchers or oil workers got 8" less than predicted, it would have been a non-event and the Weather Service would never have been dragged through the mud and felt it necessary to send their chief to "do some 'splainin'."

However, given how it worked out, there is some good that can come from this event once the weather community is allowed to stop defending themselves and can get to analyzing the actual event and their messaging.

Computer models present a dilemma

You hear about weather models all the time. You know that there are several, that they all provide different forecasts of the environment, and that, like siblings, they sometimes agree well, but most of the time have their differences of opinion. Sometimes they just plain old duke it out. You also know that usually, as an event gets closer in time, they tend to arrive at a common solution, even if the details are slightly different.

In this case, all of the models had their version of how the blizzard would play out. They were similar in the areas where the forecast and actual conditions matched well (eastern MA to Long Island). They were not so similar on the western side of the system, which happened to include NYC. The European model (Euro), which everyone knows was the darling after Hurricane Sandy, and the North American model (NAM), which tends to do very well at short-term forecasts, had a fairly common solution that the NWS (and subsequently most of the private forecasting companies) latched onto. It was one that produced 15-25" of snow in NYC.

Then there was the newly-upgraded American stalwart, the Global Forecast System (GFS), which had a long track record of good forecasts until it was updated earlier this month. It's still a great model, but the weather community as a whole hasn't seen it perform in these conditions in its "upgraded state." It was forecasting around 8-12" for NYC. As you can see, the GFS beat the pants off the Euro/NAM solution in one area where it mattered most (metro NYC). The NWS (and many others) picked the wrong model.


How we (the weather community) can, and must, do better

So what should the weather community do with a high-impact, high-visibility forecast in which the range of possible solutions are far apart? Pick one and cross their collective fingers? (I'm oversimplifying a great deal here, by the way. That's not exactly what the NWS did, but they definitely leaned in that direction.)  The better method (and this is not a new idea, it's been discussed many times over the past 24 hours from the head of NWS on down) is to communicate something other than a specific total, or even range, for a location.

There was a measure of uncertainty in the forecast. The uncertainty was inherently much higher in the NYC area than the Boston area because the available data being used as input had a wider spread. So why not COMMUNICATE THE UNCERTAINTY? Use the range of model options available and your expertise and training to say "Y is the most likely outcome, but there is a chance we could see X and a lesser chance we could see Z."

Every forecast we create has a measure of uncertainty or confidence associated with it. This can be expressed in probabilities or using words. However, especially with winter forecasts, continuing to call for Y inches will only reduce the public's confidence in the forecast because the chances are better you'll be wrong than right, even if it's by an inch or two. To their credit, a couple of NWS offices in the northeast are already doing this in an experimental state, providing a "most likely" outcome and probabilities of other outcomes. These products must be expanded and made more visible. (I didn't know about it until after the storm had ended and would've been very helpful in my forecasting efforts.)

An experimental "snow accumulation potential" forecast issued by the Philly NWS office.

In addition, in this world of soundbites and headlines and 140-character tweets, hype drives clicks and viewers. I'm not insinuating that the NWS, or any other forecast agency, hyped the event. But in the media-driven culture of NYC, it's very easy to take the "high end" forecast and run with it. "TWO FEET OF SNOW ON BROADWAY" draws eyeballs. No matter that that forecast had a very low probability of actually verifying. (That also leads into an entirely separate topic of amateurs with access to model data proliferating the worst case scenarios on social media and making the weather community as a whole look bad... but again, I digress...)

Should forecasters apologize for their mistakes?

There was also some discussion of whether those who issued the forecasts had the responsibility, or felt pressured in some way, to publicly apologize, which a few did. Personally, I don't mind the NWS Director holding a press conference to help educate others what goes on in the decision-making and forecast-creation process. It's insightful and, I believe, lends confidence in and credence to the process, building trust along the way. However, I don't necessarily find it mandatory to be remorseful for the errant forecast produced, especially when the event is over-forecast. Again, while explaining oneself can be educational and build trust, we provide the best forecast we can with the information, knowledge, and experience we have accumulated. It's a forecast and we're human. Sometimes we'll be wrong! 



I truly believe that providing a confidence factor or probability forecast instead of a cut-and-dry "this is what it'll do" can be extremely useful in these situations. Some may see it as waffling, but smart consumers will use the information to make informed decisions depending on their risk or tolerance level. After all, that's what we do every day with our rain forecasts right? If there's a 20% chance, you may leave the umbrella at home and take your chance. But if you or the event you are involved in can't tolerate a stray shower overhead for whatever reason, you'll take precautions. This same probability forecasting is now being done with severe weather, why can't it also apply to winter weather scenarios?

The weather consumer's responsibility

My last comment will be regarding the consumer's (i.e., YOUR) responsibility. As an example, too often someone will read a forecast that indicates a very low likelihood of rain in two days. Then they get busy, don't pay any attention to the forecast, and are shocked when it rains on that day that "was supposed to be dry." The meteorologist was wrong again! I say bull.

I honestly believe that meteorologists have gotten so GOOD that the public is surprised when we're wrong! And so the myth is perpetuated that we missed it *again.* In actuality, the weather pattern changed a bit, we updated our forecasts the day before (or the morning of) that rain, you didn't see the change, and then blame the weather guy/gal. While we have many new ways of providing our information on demand (social media, apps, etc.) compared to 10-20 years ago, when you had to wait until noon, 5pm or 10pm to "watch the weather," it is NOT our responsibility to hand deliver it to you. I believe that as long as we make it available and keep it current, it's your responsibility to keep up with it. If you don't, it's on you.

Closing argument

I'll close with this. For the vast majority of us in the weather enterprise, we pride ourselves on being accurate. We spend HOURS pouring over data, considering all potential solutions, and using our previous experiences to provide the most likely solution to our customers.

Could we communicate the information more effectively? You better believe it.

Are we learning as we go? Absolutely.

Do we tire of hearing how great a job we have because "we get paid even if we're wrong"? Would you? :-)

But we also KNOW when we botch a forecast. Because we tend to be, well, anal, and pride ourselves on hitting the high temp to the degree or timing the rain to the hour, we are harder on ourselves than anyone else and their criticism. So we've gotten good at brushing off the haters, learning from the experience, and applying it to the next event! :-) After all, we're only as good as our last forecast right?

Thanks for reading, and feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or hit MWN up on social media!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Facebook changes and how it affects our use of the platform

Just when we think we've semi-figured out the best way to use Facebook for social media weather nowcasting, Mark Zuckerburg changes things up again.  We've blogged before about how many most of our Facebook fans (no less than two-thirds of them) are not seeing our updates, no matter what we post or how we post it.  We employ various techniques to reach as many of you as possible, but there seems to always be a cap on how many of our fans will see our information.

Changes to Facebook Fan page algorithms

Today, Facebook announced a few changes for Fan Pages that will require us to continue studying how many of our "likers" actually see our content and what types of posts work best.  However, the main points continue to be the main points if you are on the receiving end and want to see all of our content.  You can substantially increase the chance of seeing what we post by engaging our posts (i.e., liking, commenting on, clicking on, or sharing).  The more you engage our posts in the ways mentioned above, the more you'll see.  This includes engaging the different types of content we post to see more of that type of post (i.e., text updates, links, pics).  Also factored in are things like how often any of our fans, and even YOUR friends, engage our posts.  The more engagement, the more eyes see the content.  Facebook uses all of this information to try and determine what you are most likely to want to see.

A couple other things you can do to make sure you see all of our posts:

  • Get notifications. After liking the MWN Facebook page, hover over the "Liked" button on our page and select "Get Notifications." (Note that your little red notification icon will light up every time we post. Use this if you want to know every time we post.)
  • Create an Interest List. These are like friend lists for personal pages, but they are for fan pages. You can place MWN in an Interest List, then select that list to see everything posted by those pages that are in the list you created. More on Interest Lists

Again, check out this previous post for more detail on increasing your chances of seeing our posts.

One of the big changes introduced today is that Facebook will begin placing older Fan page content back near the top of people's News Feeds, to increase the chance it will be seen.  There is an inherent risk with this that applies directly to what we do, which is provide chronological updates of weather information.  Lifting old content back into a News Feed means you might see information in your recent feed on storms that are long gone.  We have been, and will continue to, timestamp all nowcast updates that are perishable, or aren't valid after a short period of time, and will re-double our efforts to make sure we do that given these changes.  The last thing we want you to see is a "take cover" Tornado Warning statement that you don't realize is a couple of hours old.  Just know that you MAY see old content in your feed with the latest changes.

So what do we do?

All of this causes us to again pause and take stock of how we use social media, in this case Facebook.  It is no secret that we strongly prefer Twitter to Facebook for what we do.  It's clean, orderly, chronological, unfiltered, brief, easy to share, and simply preferred for "news" sharing.  Facebook is great for personal socializing and works for us for content that is not perishable (despite the fact that a neat picture might only get seen by one third of our fans).  It does not work well when you need a chronological, unfiltered feed of information.

For now, we will make no changes to our use of Facebook, despite these fallacies.  However, we STRONGLY ENCOURAGE anyone that follows us on Facebook and has a Twitter account to follow MWN on Twitter as well.  In fact, we like Twitter so much that we think that it's worth you opening a Twitter account just to keep up with current news and weather information.  The ability to mobile follow (especially our automated StormWatch warning feeds) is icing on the cake.

If you don't want to open a Twitter account, but want to see our unfiltered, chronological updates from our Twitter feed, you can either view our auto-updating Twitter app that is embedded within our Facebook page (thus allowing you to remain on Facebook, even though you are tied to a single Facebook page), or check out our Twitter feed in the MemphisWeather.net iPhone or Android apps. Both are great ways to follow and know you're not missing anything, especially during severe weather.

A word on multiple sources of information

It is unwise (and that's saying it nicely) to rely on a single source of weather information, during severe weather in particular.  All sources have fallacies and may stop updating. This includes our nowcast feeds and mobile apps.  Commercial TV, radio, multiple weather apps, or NOAA Weather Radio are all good sources of information.

Our biggest fear is that someone solely relies on our Facebook feed for severe weather updates and Facebook decides not to serve up the Tornado Warning post to their feed. God forbid someone gets injured or worse because they relied on Facebook EdgeRank (or even a Twitter feed for that matter) to deliver their warning information.  We're reliable, but make no guarantees!  We appreciate it if you use MWN as a primary source, but have a couple of backup sources and check them regularly during severe weather.

Thanks for being an MWN Facebook fan!  We'd love to know your thoughts or comments. Feel free to post them on our Facebook page or leave them in the comments section below.

Erik Proseus
Owner, Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC
Meteorologist, MemphisWeather.net

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Are you missing our content on Facebook?

(and what to do if you are...)


Originally published October 30, 2012

The use of social media to relay important, at times vital, information has risen exponentially over the past couple of years.  In fact, it has reached the point where social media has, in many cases, overtaken traditional forms of media in terms of providing the initial "break" in breaking news and important detailed follow up to those same stories.  There are many examples of this trend that are easy to spot for those who utilize social media (particularly Facebook and Twitter) on a regular basis for things other than personal communication with friends, colleagues, etc.

One area where this is highly evident is in weather coverage - so much so that the firehose of information, particularly during severe and large-scale events, when properly filtered, can fill in the gaping holes in traditional media coverage that many never knew existed.  At MemphisWeather.net, we are keen to the use of social media in not only distributing pertinent weather information to our friends and followers, but in gathering the information from a wide variety of sources - local, regional, and national.  We pride ourselves in  having the latest information at our fingertips and relaying that information back to you in a timely, succinct, and direct (but non-threatening) way.

At the mercy of the platform

As social media evolves, we evolve with it.  We expect evolution to take place and you expect that we will accept and embrace change so that we can continue to meet our mission to provide you with the information you need. One example of this is the recent addition of Google+ to our social media toolkit, in certain instances.  One downside to using other's platforms to distribute the information, however, is that we are at the mercy of the platform when they make changes.  We aren't big enough or rich enough to (at this point) develop our own platform that we control, so we must either accept change to the platform we use, or choose not to use it.

It has come to our attention through monitoring our social media metrics and the posts of other entities like ourselves, as well as announcements by the company itself, that one of our heavily-used platforms, Facebook, has made some changes to the way they show the posts of Facebook Fan Pages (like MemphisWeather.net).  Facebook uses a proprietary algorithm called EdgeRank to determine what posts you see in your News Feed.

EdgeRank

There are several factors that go into EdgeRank which determines whether you see the posts of certain pages and how many you see.  The changes, we believe, are revenue-driven and are negatively impacting our followers. How?  By not showing our posts in your News Feed, whether you know it or not, with the hope that WE will pay Facebook to show OUR content to YOU - when YOU are the one that requested to see it by liking our page in the first place!


We currently have well over 5,000 "likes" on our Fan Page.  However, a quick glance at our metrics indicates that only about 10% of you (roughly 500 without doing a detailed analysis) are actually seeing each post we make.  Why is this?  EdgeRank.  You see, just because you Like a page apparently does NOT mean it will show up in your News Feed.

Facebook has started "offering" owners of Fan Pages like MemphisWeather.net the chance to pay Facebook to put our posts in front of more of our followers.  To us, it sounds a little strange for us to pay to put our information in front of the people who requested it in the first place!  These "Promoted Posts" are supposedly bumped up in the EdgeRank algorithm, allowing more of our followers to see that particular post.  We believe Promoted Posts and the unwritten "10% rule" are designed to create revenue for Facebook.

Now, let me be clear that I am not against a company having revenue - heck, we are one and without it, there would likely be no MemphisWeather.net (or at least it would be scaled way back)!  However, this seems to be pushing the envelope a bit.  Our stance is that if you Like our page, you must be willing to see our posts, or you would un-like us or hide us from your News Feed.  It's not up to Facebook to decide that you don't want to see our posts!  So if you think you aren't seeing all (or any) of our posts and you have Liked our page, you have a few options.

So, what to do about it...

1. Get notified!  Not sure how we missed this before... But just like getting Facebook notifications when someone comments or likes a post after you have, or when someone engages your post, picture, etc., you can get a Facebook notification when we post to our page! Just go to our Fan page, click the "Liked" button, then click "Get Notifications" (see example below).  (NOTE: This appears to work for all of our posts EXCEPT links we post, i.e., radar update with a link to the radar.)


2. Like, comment, and interact. One of the key factors in determining whether you see content in your News Feed is engagement: the amount of clicks, likes, comments, shares, etc. generated by a piece of content (what we post).  Thus, the more you like, comment, or share our content, the more likely you will see more of our content in your Feed.

3. Create an Interest List. Most people are probably not familiar with Interest Lists, but they are the sure-fire way to see ALL of our content.  After you create the list with whoever (and whatever) you want in it you simply click on the list (desktop or Facebook's mobile app) and you will see all content from those in that list. These are like Friends lists, only Fan Pages like ours cannot be part of a Friends list.  More on How to Create an Interest List.

4. Follow us on Twitter. I know, you hate Twitter (event though you've never tried it) or have sworn to never open that can of worms.  However, for information sharing and digesting, there is NO BETTER social platform (currently) than Twitter.  You get everything posted by an account (like @memphisweather1, which is ours) and can create lists to organize it.  Twitter doesn't filter it based on what it THINKS you want to see.  Quick and easy to setup and ALL content from those you want to follow. Here's our account on Twitter.

5. Monitor our Twitter feed via our Facebook page tab. OK, so you STILL refuse to join Twitter.  There's one last alternative for those of you accessing Facebook from a PC.  On our Facebook page, in the apps section (see below) you will see "Twitter Feed." Click the icon. Voila!  You can follow our posts to Twitter, which means everything we post, sequentially, and auto-updating, all without joining Twitter.  Keep that page open in a browser tab and you're all set. (Keep in mind there is no interaction with us on that tab, but you can flip back to our main Facebook page to post something to us if you wish.)


We are not about to do anything drastic!

With well over 5,000 of you "liking" us on Facebook, we are not about to jump off a cliff, drop the platform, and leave potentially thousands of you without our severe weather nowcasting or daily weather updates.  And we know some of you just don't DO Twitter (although we don't know why).  Just take notice that if you really do want to see our information on Facebook, YOU have to do something to fix that.  We will NOT be paying Facebook to show you our posts.  That just seems, well, ridiculous (unless we're trying to get you to buy our app, which you can do here [subtle plug]).

Thank you kindly for reading and for following us on Facebook!  We truly appreciate all of the positive feedback we receive.  It literally keeps us going when the hours draw on and there are still more storms headed in our direction!  Let us know what you think by commenting below, or drop us a line on one of our social media feeds.

Erik Proseus
Owner, Cirrus Weather Solutions
Meteorologist, MemphisWeather.net

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Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps,  now with StormWatch+!
Nowcasting services available on our Facebook page and Twitter feed.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

How to navigate the new MWN Facebook page


Well, Facebook has done it again!  As you've no doubt seen, many individuals have begun using the new "Timeline" format that Facebook has developed. Now the Timeline has come to all Fan and Business pages. All fan pages will transition by this Friday, so you'll see many more in the days ahead (we held off as long as we could!). We hope to provide you with the information needed in this post to successfully navigate the new MWN Facebook fan page, including some of the pros and cons.  We'll start with screen shots of the old and new versions of the page.  To access our live Facebook page, in the new format, click the link above.

Figure A. MWN's "old" Facebook page

Figure B. MWN's "new" Facebook Timeline
The big changes are highlighted in red, while new items are in purple on the Timeline (Figure B).  First of all, if you are looking for any of the information, or "landing tabs" as they were called, that were in the left column, you will now find those below the brand-new Cover Photo.  These are now referred to as "apps." On our Timeline, you'll see "Photos" (which we cannot move), "Videos," "StormWatch+," and "Likes." Click on the drop down arrow/number next to the Likes button for additional apps that we may provide. Except for Photos, we can change the order of any of these or add new apps.  The About section, which in the old format was very limited, has been expanded to show additional verbiage and appears next to the apps section below the cover photo.

Most importantly, posts by MWN to our Wall, which previously appeared in one main column down the body of the page, will start off in the left-hand column of the new Timeline format.  At the top of the right-hand column will be things like what others are saying about MWN, our page's likes, etc. Then, below these items, our posts will take on a 2-column format, as in the screenshot below after scrolling down the page.

Figure C. After scrolling down MWN's new Facebook "Timeline"
We have the ability to "highlight" certain posts (which means they cross both columns) or even pin them to the top of the Timeline, as shown by the yellow bookmark icon (circled in purple) in Figure B above.  You can navigate through our apps or go back in our timeline by month using the drop-down menu bar that appears at the top of the page after scrolling down past these features that are at the top of our new page (see purple circled area in Figure C).

While it will take some adjustment, there are a couple of new features that we think you will like (and I know we will).  One is the ability to pin a post to the top of the Timeline.  We can see using that for an important story, a bit of information that you need to know, or perhaps to let you know we are in nowcasting mode during severe weather.  We have complete control over what appears at the top of the Timeline, which keeps you from having to dig back through multiple posts to find it.

Secondly, you'll see a "Message" button below the cover photo.  This is a brand new feature to Facebook Fan Pages.  Previously, in order to contact us, you had to write on our Wall and hope we saw it.  Now, with "Message," you can use the Facebook Message system to wrote directly to us, just like e-mail.  We can respond through Messages and the reply will appear in your normal Facebook Message stream, just like with personal Facebook messages you send.  We encourage you to use that for questions or comments that may not be appropriate for a wide audience.  If you want to write on our wall with a weather question that others may also be interested in, feel free!  If you want to ask us a more direct one-on-one question, use Messages.

The last item to address is our severe weather nowcasting service.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO NOWCAST DURING SEVERE WEATHER  ON FACEBOOK.  However... we expect that if you load our Facebook fan page and click refresh periodically, the new "Timeline" format may be harder to follow than the old (even though it should work well given it's name...).  We honestly don't know exactly how it will work.  If you simply follow your News Feed on Facebook, especially if you order your posts by "Most recent first," you should see no changes at all.  The majority of you already do that.  To arrange your news feed in this manner, go to Facebook.com, then at the top of the news items, click on "Sort" and select "Most recent."  This is the best way to see our posts during severe weather in chronological order (see Figure D below).

Figure D. Setting up your News Feed
Finally, I'll make a plug for Twitter.  If you are not on Twitter, consider it.  Twitter is absolutely the BEST way to follow our severe weather nowcasting.  It's always chronological, it's concise, links are provided in posts (tweets), and it's a rapid way of keeping up to date with what's going on.  You can also mobile follow MWN, which means our tweets will go straight to your phone as text messages, which can be very handy if you are taking cover from a storm!  You can turn on/off the mobile feature at will.  You'll find us on Twitter as  'memphisweather1', or @memphisweather1.

The other option for following our Twitter stream is to click on the "Twitter feed" app under the cover photo, as shown below.  You can bring this app up and it will auto-refresh as tweets are sent.  It's also a good way to follow our nowcasting service if you don't wish to join Twitter.

Figure E. Click Twitter Feed to see our latest tweets from within Facebook.
Hopefully you'll get used to the new Timeline format quickly.  While it was certainly not our idea and it will take some adjusting to, Facebook is free to use, so I guess we are at their mercy!

If you have any other Facebook suggestions for us, feel free to leave a comment below!  We'll try and make this as painless as possible for you!

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 1)

Everybody does Top 10 lists to end the year (or daily if your name is David Letterman), so MWN decided we should too.  Only once we put together the list of Top 10 Mid-South weather stories of 2011, the list was 10+1, or 11 if you are up on your 1st grade math!  So we decided that since it was 2011 we were talking about, we'd make an exception and call it the "Top 11 of '11".  No word yet on whether there will be 12 next year... so without further delay we bring you (in true Letterman fashion, counting down from 11) the first 3:

"The Top 11 of '11" - Mid-South Weather Stories from MemphisWeather.net

# 11. Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies
On the evening of October 24 around 9pm, I was checking my Twitter feed when people started reporting seeing a red glow in the sky across the southern states, including many Mid-South locations.  Reports from NC to AR, including locations as far south as northern AL and MS, were flooding my feed of mainly weather and news accounts. Quick sleuthing and some timely and informative tweets pointed to the event being a rare Aurora Borealis, which resulted from a coronal mass ejection from the sun early that afternoon. The image below was one that I highlighted in a blog post that evening that further described the event, including what causes the Aurora and why it was red.  While not unprecedented, it has been years since the Aurora has been visible this far south in the U.S.  Perhaps more of this type of solar activity will be possible as the lately-dormant sun enters an active sunspot period that peaks in a little over a year?
Aurora captured in Corning, AR on October 24, 2011
# 10. MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting
While not a "weather event," one of the facets of weather reporting that has taken off in the past year is the explosion in nowcasting the weather via social media.  Nowcasting is very-short-term forecasting, most often encompassing only the next 1-4 hours.  More and more, operational meteorologists, broadcast professionals, and even enthusiasts are turning to Facebook and Twitter to update their audience on current weather events and solicit reports, particularly during severe weather episodes.  Even the National Weather Service has begun using social media.

MWN is proud to have been at the forefront of this new style of weather reporting, having started nowcasting for the Memphis metropolitan area nearly three years ago in the spring of 2009.  Thanks to some wild weather in greater Memphis this past year (more on these events as we continue the countdown) and momentum generated during our first couple of years on social media, MWN's nowcasting service quickly became well-known.  We are proud to say that we went "wall-to-wall" for every severe and winter event in 2011 and the growth in our follower-ship responded accordingly, tripling on both Facebook and Twitter!  Thank you for trusting us to keep you updated, safe, and informed during hazardous (and even placid) weather conditions!
Exposure produced by MemphisWeather.net tweets on February 25, 2011

# 9. Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence
There will be plenty of weather events in our Top 11 (in fact, we're saving many of the top spots just for those), but one other weather "story" for MemphisWeather.net this year was the addition of a few individuals to our team that allowed us to grow exponentially and expand our product and service offerings that directly benefit you.
  • Though not employed by MWN, one of the best decisions I made in early 2011 was contracting with Ben Deming (@bendeming) to design and code our first-ever mobile applications.  Ben possesses a very broad skill set that allowed him to develop not only our iPhone app, but also an Android app, and assist with other minor software and server-related issues.
  • Late this summer, a decision was made that, to continue to keep up the ambitious pace that MWN had grown to, we needed some help. The search began for individual with basic meteorology knowledge that was also teachable, interested in social media, and a good communicator, among other things.  It didn't take long to find the person who has evolved into my right hand man - social media nowcaster and blogger, Kevin Terry (@jterry0).  Kevin quickly embraced the mission of MWN, took over a sizable part of the nowcasting requirements, and allowed me to work on expanding MWN's presence through new services and marketing efforts.  Kevin will remain with MWN through at least June 2012.
  • Though those are the two individuals I deal with most often, there are certainly others whose contributions have allowed MWN to rapidly expand this year.  They include: Wayne Randall, owner of IT company Nextek, whose generous offer of server space in his data center ensures the reliable delivery of products and services to MWN; Amy Howell (@howellmarketing) and Alys Drake (@alysdrake) of world-class marketing firm Howell Marketing Strategies, who assist in making sure the MWN story is told; and countless others in Memphis and Mid-South social media and business circles who help us disseminate our words and information to the masses - you know who you are, and we thank you!
Those are the first 3 of the "Top 11 of '11"! We'll reveal a couple more each day through New Year's Eve here on the MWN Blog  (and I promise they won't be weighted nearly as heavily on MWN but much more about actual weather events!).  What Mid-South weather event do you think should be #1 this year?

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Commentary: the tornado warning process, use of technology, and application of social media during severe weather

I've posted in the past on the phenomena known in the weather broadcast community as "wall-to-wall" (or long-form) coverage, in which a local broadcast station (typically TV, though known to occur on radio as well) preempts all routine programming in order to keep the community informed and safe during a severe weather event.  It's not a foreign concept to most in the Mid-South, especially after the spring we have just gone through.

A couple of things prompt me to post again on the warning process and related matters: 1) a blog post by a well-known and respected broadcast meteorologist in Birmingham, James Spann, whom I greatly respect from afar, and 2) a Commercial Appeal article by James Dowd in this morning's (Sunday, June 19) Business section.  I highly encourage you to read each one.

Mr. Spann's main points (not mine) were these:
  • The high false alarm rate in tornado warning situations has created complacency and apathy, and therefore inaction, on the part of the public.
  • Too many people rely on sirens to warn them of a possible tornado and if they don't hear it, they aren't prepared.  Sirens are out-of-date technology that, while at one time served a purpose, no longer do.
  • NOAA Weather Radio will become obsolete unless it is upgraded to the polygon warning system currently in use by the NWS.  If it doesn't get upgraded, the private sector will lead the public into the future of receiving warnings with technology.
  • TV stations must stream their long-form (wall-to-wall) tornado coverage in a way that is accessible to all portable devices, not just some of them.
  • Social media is a lifeline during severe weather and must be embraced by TV meteorologists.
  • When there is a genuine tornado emergency, local broadcasters must go wall-to-wall to warn the public, and have the guts to take the hate mail.
  • TV meteorologists need to get off their off-camera computers, get in front of the chroma-key, and look their audience in the eye. It is a key element of communication.
The key points of Mr. Dowd's article, in which he appeared to get comments from meteorologists at all of the major players in the Memphis market were these (again, not my statements):
  • Memphis TV meteorologists have to maintain a balance between "too little" and "not enough" when it comes to live coverage of severe weather events.
  • Recent events in Joplin, Tuscaloosa, and elsewhere have prompted stations to "have their guard up" and viewer complaints are down, presumably because those events are fresh in their minds.
  • It is preferable to have too much coverage in an event where all turns out OK than to not be on the air when disaster strikes.
  • While re-running preempted programming at a later hour satisfies some viewers (depending on the program that was cut), advertisers are not as happy because they paid big bucks for certain time slots during certain programs.
  • With the expanding use of mobile technology, all agree that it is only a matter of time before these devices will be used for weather updates more than television.
I do not wish to comment again on the use, or lack thereof, of wall-to-wall coverage.  My opinion has changed little and can be found in the posting I mentioned at the top of this page.  However, I would comment on a couple of things that Spann and Dowd's articles touched on.

Tornado Warning False Alarm Rates
I don't wish to go too deeply into this subject or take a hard-line stance on this topic.  Many of my friends in the weather community are the men and women who are the unsung heroes at the National Weather Service that issue these warnings as a matter of "protection of life and property."

Spann differentiates between the "squall line spin-ups" type of tornado (which frequently are brief, weak, and occur on the leading edge of intense lines of thunderstorms) and the supercell twisters which typically cause the greatest damage, most injuries, and highest death tolls.  He takes on the squall-line cases directly, asking the NWS to stop issuing warnings for these brief spin-ups when, in most cases, they are near impossible to detect in advance and last only a few minutes.  By the time the warning is issued and received, the threat is about over and broadcasters are left on the air for up to an hour for a tornado threat that no longer exists, or at least is overshadowed by the greater threat - the damaging straight-line wind in the squall line.  He contends that these warnings desensitize the public.

I won't go so far as to say that the NWS should stop issuing warnings for these types of "lesser" threats.  However, Spann's point is well-taken.  The high false alarm rates (FAR) when it comes to tornado warnings have created a complacent public that is probably more dangerous than an underwarned public. Without having spoken to NWS officials directly on the matter, I am fairly confident in stating that they are likely doing whatever it takes to make sure that they don't miss a tornado, at the expense of 80% or more of their tornado warnings resulting in no tornado (even if the conditions are right and the precursors are present in the specific storm).  The damage control for a missed event has to be much greater than for an overwarned public.

So, while I completely understand their position, the capabilities of the radars these days are allowing the individuals triggering the warnings at the NWS to "see" with even greater detail the precursors.  This in turn has resulted in more warnings that don't verify (precursors don't necessarily mean actual tornadoes, or even funnel clouds).  This should be taken into account during the warning process, as should the societal impacts of an overwarned, "siren-weary" public.

Outdoor Warning Sirens
Spann suggested that tornado sirens were outdated and should be done away with. I partially agree, but take a different stance as to their future use.  Rather than doing away with them, these sirens need to be brought up to date, not only replacing many that are decades old with later models, but to capture the essence of the polygon warning process and only sound sirens that are within the actual area being warned.  (MemphisWeather.net's page on Outdoor Warning Sirens has more about these devices and allows you to plot their locations in Shelby County.)

The NWS stopped warning entire counties years ago and now issues tornado warnings for areas along the projected path of the storm - using what is called storm-based, or polygon, warnings.  The technology exists for sirens to be programmed such that, if they are not in the polygon area being warned, they do not sound.  I understand that the actual sound from these sirens may bleed over into areas that aren't warned, but I think that is a good thing.  (If you are 1 mile outside the polygon, are you truly "safe" from the storm?)  I also think that there should be a buffer around the polygon from a siren perspective, such that if the siren can be heard within the polygon but is not located inside the polygon, it should sound.  Again, technology will allow you to do this.

However, the time has come for people 20 miles from the warned area to STOP hearing sirens, just because they are in the same county.  The #2 reason for a desensitized public (behind wall-to-wall television coverage) is overuse of tornado sirens.  It's time the money be allocated to upgrade the sirens, add the technology, and activate them from a centralized location.  The money for this should be as sacred as the salaries of police and fire - it's become a matter of public safety.  (And while I am on this soapbox, if a tornado warning is cancelled by the NWS, shut off the sirens for goodness sake.) 

NOAA Weather Radio
Also mentioned by Spann, I agree 100% with his opinion that NOAA Weather Radio must come into the 21st Century.  The ability to only alarm for the county(ies) that are programmed is the first necessary step that was taken years ago.  The next step, along the same lines as the discussion above regarding sirens, is that technology must be used to allow these radios to be alarmed based on their location within a storm-based warning.  Why are weather radios going off in Collierville when the storm is in Millington?  The federal government and radio manufacturers need to invest in the technology as a matter of public safety!

Once again, private industry is leading the way with smartphone apps that will use polygon warnings and GPS to push notifications to users when they are in the path of the storm.  NOAA Weather Radios should have GPS embedded in the device and the warning information that is disseminated should contain the actual area being warned, not just the county.

Use of Social Media
Both articles commented on the rising use of social media in the field of weather, and particularly in the warning dissemination process.  Obviously, if you know anything about how MWN operates, you know that social media is vital to our modus operandi.

During severe weather, Facebook and Twitter are our means of nowcasting weather information to you.  In other words, it's our version of "long-form" coverage.  We were one of the first in the Memphis area to adopt this method two years ago and it has earned us high accolades and many thanks from our growing base of followers.

The great thing about nowcasting on a social media stream is that, if you as a consumer of information do not wish to know about it or it isn't affecting your area, you can turn it off - surf to another website, hide the posts, whatever.  We don't have to "preempt" anything else that you might wish to partake in.  You can come and go as you please.  TV broadcasters don't have this luxury (and I'm not delving into the digital x.1 and x.2 channels, which technically do give them a few options).

Not only does social media give you an option on viewing the information, but it really can be an effective means of spreading the word quickly and efficiently.  It is very easy to pass the information along and grow the number of consumers exponentially when needed.  On broadcast coverage, if you missed the weatherman's statement about the communities in the path of the storm, you may be out of luck.  Not so with social media - the re-tweet and share button allow the information to continue to be spread.  MWN sees social media as part of the future of information dissemination, which is why we adopted it early and use it often where weather is concerned.

All of the above taken together - a reduced false alarm rate for tornadoes, upgraded siren and radio technology, continued evolution of new techniques in mobile technology from the private sector, and the use of social media - should result in a less siren-weary, more storm-ready public, and eventually a further reduction in injury and death during violent storms.

What do you think?  Feel free to leave your comments below!  I read every one and am interested in your thoughts, particularly with regards to how MWN can play a role in your safety during severe weather.

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Erik Proseus
Meteorologist, MemphisWeather.net
Owner, Cirrus Weather Solutions


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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Various topics for May 29, 2009

Tropical Depression One
T.D. 1 is headed out to sea after exiting the Gulf Stream overnight with no further intensification. It poses no threat to land and should become extratropical by Saturday. An early arrival of the first depression of the year means nothing as far as what the hurricane season will bring; however, new evidence of El Nino conditions appearing over the eastern Pacific could have an effect, according to Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters.

Heat returns
After flirting with the 90 degree mark earlier in the week, and then remaining in the mid 70s yesterday (what a great day!), we'll again make a run at 90 just in time for the start of "meteorological summer" (defined as June-July-August) as upper-level high pressure moves in this weekend. We could reach 90+ on Monday and Tuesday, and we'll be pretty close Saturday and Sunday! Average highs for this time of year are in the mid 80s. Check the "most accurate Memphis forecast" at MemphisWeather.net for more details.

New Memphis ATCT Rising over the Airport
Since my second big interest behind weather is aviation, I've been keeping an eye on this site with a webcam showing the FAA's new Air Traffic Control Tower being constructed at Memphis International Airport. (There is even a time-lapse feature that is cool to watch.) I drive by the tower every day on the way to work, so I've gotten to see the new landmark as it rises into the sky. It's now almost as tall as the old control tower and still rising! The new tower will boast double the space for controllers in the tower cab (the room at the top of the tower) and will be well over 100 feet TALLER than the existing tower when commissioned in 2011. At 336' tall, it will be the third tallest control tower in the south. The radar control room at the base of the tower is also part of the new construction, as well as administration offices and training areas. For more on the new tower, check out this archived article from the Commercial Appeal.

Yes, but did your hair stand on end?
Check out this amazing video on AccuWeather of a guy that was filming a thunderstorm and ended up filming a lightning strike less than 0.4 mile away!

Poll on wall-to-wall severe weather coverage
You've got until Sunday night at midnight to take this week's MWN Blog poll on wall-to-wall severe weather coverage. Is it too much, not enough, or just right? Cast your vote, then check out my previous blog on the subject.

MWN on social media sites
Be sure to check out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook (and become a fan!) and follow me on Twitter for micro-blogging on current weather and other weather-related topics. You'll also get Shelby County warnings via my Twitter feed. Amazing what you can do these days with the Internet...