MWN Blog: tropical

Showing posts with label tropical. Show all posts

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Late-summer heat and dry weather this week; tropical update

The wet and stormy pattern from late July through mid-August has evaporated as we head through the latter half of August. Several very comfortable days last week had most of us grateful for the arrival of #FalseFall. But a massive ridge of high pressure above us (a.k.a., a Heat Dome) will dominate a large portion of the country from the Rockies to the east coast, including the Mississippi Valley this week.

The European model ensemble data shows a gargantuan high pressure system aloft over the easter two-thirds of the nation midday Tuesday. This high will result in hot weather and dry conditions for most of the coming week. (WeatherBell)

That will mean very hot temperatures under little cloud cover and increasing humidity this week. We'll likely see our first string of 100-degree temperatures since July 2022 as #SecondSummer arrives with a vengeance.

Fortunately, it appears that a cold front will move through next weekend as the high pressure ridge is suppressed to the south, allow temperatures to drop back to near average values around 90 degrees in about a week. Even with the cold front arriving, precipitation chances look to be very low, and on Saturday.

With heat indices near 110 degrees for a good part of the week, heat safety will be a necessity, especially with morning lows near 80 degrees providing little overnight relief. Heat Advisories will likely become Heat Warnings before it cools down a bit next weekend. Avoid the outdoors in the hottest part of the day, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks if you must be outdoors, and check on neighbors, the young and elderly, and your pets too!

Tropical action

Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean tropical basin has sprung to life after a month of quiet conditions, and just as we begin the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Fortunately, only minor impacts are expected in the next several days as developing storms well out to sea will not affect the U.S. or Caribbean. A little closer to home, a system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico doesn't have optimal atmospheric conditions for development, but could become a tropical depression or weak storm as it moves towards south Texas in the next few days. That area of the country could use rainfall though, so rain would be beneficial in that region. Another system worth watching in the Caribbean is heading towards Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and is likely to become Tropical Storm Franklin within the next day. It appears to miss Florida on an eventual track north.

Finally, you've likely heard about now-Tropical Storm Hilary, which is moving into southern California this evening and dissipating tomorrow, but not without catastrophic flooding impacts across that region, extending north into Nevada. Many desert areas of southern California will receive as much rain in 48 hours as they typically see in an entire year. The current Tropical Storm Warning for San Diego and other areas of southern CA is the first ever issued for the state!

Sunday afternoon forecast map for Tropical Storm Hilary (NHC)

Flash flood potential is high across southern CA into southwest NV. (NHC)

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Big changes coming: Temperatures tumble, plus the tropics aren’t done

If you’ve found yourself wishing away the unseasonably warm temperatures we’ve had this fall, you’re going to enjoy the changes headed our way! We have a pretty active weekend ahead of us.

First: The Tropics

Nicole made landfall just south of Vero Beach, Florida early Thursday morning as a category one hurricane with estimated wind speeds of 75 miles per hour. The current National Hurricane Center Track takes Nicole through central Georgia on Friday and to the northeast towards New England by Saturday. While most of the tropical system’s impacts will remain well to our east, north MS and west TN might see some clouds filter in and winds pick up a bit on Friday as the low makes its northern turn through Georgia.

Nicole stays well to our east as it moves up the east coast and a strong cold front approaches from the plains. (Pivotal Weather)

Big temperature swing coming...

More rural areas have already seen sub-freezing temperatures, but this weekend will likely bring our first sub-freezing temperatures in the city itself. Our main story starting Friday is a strong cold front brought about by an upper-level trough swinging through the eastern U.S. As of lunchtime on Thursday, the cold front was draped from Wisconsin down through Oklahoma and continues to push eastward. The front will be approaching the metro Friday evening, ushering in borderline-winter-like temperatures, and the cold is here to stay this time. A strong northerly wind will pick up in the wake of the front, and temperatures will drop to the mid-30s Friday night with showers likely, but probably not until after high school football playoff games end for the evening! Precipitation from the front itself will dissipate as it approaches the metro, but a weak upper level disturbance following just after will bring rainfall in from the southwest.

Nicole stays well to our east as it moves up the east coast and a strong cold front approaches from the plains. (Pivotal Weather)

Here’s a still shot from the HRRR of surface temperatures at 6pm on Friday as the front approaches the metro. (Pivotal Weather)

Now, I tread carefully with this one, but areas northwest of us in NE Arkansas have the potential to see some sleet/wintry mix in the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning as cold air rushes in. Rest assured, surface temperatures will still be above freezing so there will be little to no impact. I’m not expecting too much in the way of precipitation amounts - maybe a tenth to a quarter of an inch with slightly higher amounts well to the south of the metro. Saturday night, lows to drop to around 30, so remember to cover your plants and bring your four-legged friends inside. Don’t be caught without a coat this weekend as temperatures won’t make it out of the 40s during the daytime despite sunshine. Thankfully these overnight temperatures aren’t quite cold enough to warrant more extreme precautionary measures, such as dripping faucets or covering outdoor pipes.

Early next week

Temperatures start to creep back up into the 50s on Monday, which is actually when our next chance for rain presents itself. A strong upper level trough pushes its way across the U.S. early next week, bringing about a storm system across the southern Plains into the Mid-South. Our chances for rain extend from Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Right now I’m looking for somewhere between a quarter and a half of an inch of precipitation with areas south of Memphis (again) receiving higher amounts. Rain gives way to a drier pattern in the middle of the week, but cooler temperatures stick around with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s through the end of the week.

The upper level disturbance responsible for our rain chances on Monday night can be seen over northern TX on this forecast map of the atmosphere at about 18,000 feet up. (Pivotal Weather)

Caroline Sleeper


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Friday, August 13, 2021

Summer heat abates as rain chances return, the tropics come to life, and transition on #TeamMWN

The first week of August seemed a bit surreal with below average temperatures and drier than average humidity. Mother Nature made up for that this past week as the blast furnace was cranked up, highs reached the mid 90s each day, lows barely dropped below 80, and rain-free weather continued. As we hit mid-month, we are looking at yet another pattern, one with slightly cooler but not abnormal temperatures and daily rain chances.

Recent dry spell

The rain is welcome after a 16-day spell with no recorded rainfall at Memphis International. As of Thursday, portions of Shelby and Tipton Counties officially moved into D0 "abnormally dry" status on the National Drought Monitor (if you have been watering daily, you would not be surprised to hear that!). In fact, the 12 dry days to start the month has only been matched three times on record, the last in 1989. That all ended today as storms deluged portions of the city with 2-3"+ and the airport officially recorded just over an inch of rain.

The Drought Monitor for the Mid-South on Thursday shows abnormally dry conditions across east AR into the Delta and western sections of the metro due to a lack of recent rainfall. (UNL)

The forecast

Looking towards the weekend, a cold front will seep into the area, providing potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, though not high chances, and additional cloud cover. That will serve to keep temperatures down a bit - near 90 Saturday and mid to upper 80s Sunday. The front will stall over the area, resulting in light north wind for a couple of days, but it won't move far enough south to drop the humidity much. Fortunately, midsummer dewpoints in the low 70s won't be paired with mid 90s temps!

The European model's forecast of mid-level (18,000') pressure values (black lines) and anomaly (colors) for the next week depicts below average pressure (blues) to start the week, which results in slightly cooler temperatures, then building pressure as the week goes on, thus a period of warming. If you look close you can spot a couple of tropical systems, one in the Gulf of Mexico (Fred) and one in the eastern Pacific (blue circles of small areas of low pressure). (WeatherBell)

Heading into next week, we'll see high pressure begin to build aloft a bit, slowly causing temperatures to return to the low 90s.With dewpoints remaining in the 70s, it'll be quite muggy, but there will also be daily thunderstorm chances continuing right through the week, most likely in the afternoons. Another front looks to make a run at us late next weekend. We'll see how far it gets! For the complete MWN forecast, updated daily, search out our app or visit MemphisWeather.net on the web.

Tropical Update

The Atlantic and Gulf tropics are starting to pick up as well, though no direct impacts are expected in the Mid-South at this point. Tropical Depression Fred is likely to skirt the west coast of Florida this weekend and make landfall in the panhandle as a moderate tropical storm early Monday before turning north and east away from our area. Tropical Depression 7 will become Grace as it races west on nearly the same track Fred took across the Caribbean. It's too early to know for sure where it is headed after about the middle of next week. Forecast tracks on both storms from the National Hurricane Center are below.

#TeamMWN Update

Finally, we end with a farewell. #TeamMWN intern Ajay Kanteti joined our little junket in January, graduated in May from Mississippi State with his Bachelor's Degree in Meteorology and now is heading to the University of Wisconsin to pursue a Master's Degree. Below are Ajay's parting words:

I have greatly appreciated the chance to serve the Memphis metro area & gotten to know some great people in my time working at MemphisWeather.Net! I hope that my future career might give me an opportunity to return to the Memphis area & serve the people of the Memphis metro again. Meanwhile, you are being left in very capable hands with my co-interns and of course Erik!

I am so appreciative of Ajay's willingness to share his knowledge of weather with our Memphis-based audience and for his dedication to the team the past eight months, not to mention staying on through the summer to help me in the transition! We wish him all the best as he pursues another degree and ultimately a career using his passion for weather to serve. All the best, Ajay!

While Ajay moves on, I am happy to announce that #TeamMWN is actually growing! Joining the team of interns for this coming year are sophomore Dylan Hudler and seniors Natalie Naquin and Sami Deffenbaugh! All are meteorology majors at Mississippi State and are looking forward to honing their skills in the weather and communication on our MWN social media channels! Welcome aboard and #HailState!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Hurricane Laura strengthens; remnants to impact the Mid-South

Laura became a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning about 7am and has intensified only slightly since that time as it churns northwestward towards the central Gulf Coast. However, more rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 hours as it nears the coast, ultimately reaching major hurricane (category 3) status by the time it reaches the coast near the TX/LA border overnight Wednesday night. Here's a look at the visible satellite imagery of an organizing Laura the last couple of hours before sunset Tuesday:

The track provided by the National Hurricane Center at 4pm Tuesday (below) shows the turn from the west to north tonight and tomorrow and landfall around midnight Wednesday night with maximum sustained wind of 115 mph and gusts to 140 mph! It should be noted that there is still some discrepancy between the models, and it is entirely possible that it could be a bit stronger than that. In addition, the Hurricane Warning extends as far west as Galveston Bay (Houston) and the storm could still shift a bit more to the west towards the greater Houston metro. Needless to say, a strong category 3 storm sideswiping a massive American city like Houston during a pandemic could be devastating (2020, it that you?), but no matter where the center hits (Beaumont, Lake Charles, or vicinity), the results will be simply awful.

After landfall, Laura will take a path north along the TX/LA border into Arkansas by Thursday evening, still as a tropical storm. By Thursday night, Tropical Storm Laura is near Little Rock and starting to take a turn to the east as it gets caught up in strong westerly wind flow. The center of the remnants should be north of Jonesboro near the AR/MO line by Friday afternoon then swiftly move by to our north and across KY through mid-day Saturday.

As for Mid-South impacts, we will know it passed nearby. We'll see chances of showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days leading up to its approach, but our best chance for impact-ful weather from Laura will be late Thursday through Friday night. This is when we could see wind gusts close to 40 mph (particularly daytime Friday) with sustained wind to 20-30 mph. In addition, periods of heavy rain are likely Friday into Friday night, though heavy downpours could be scattered about or in bands Thursday afternoon as well. In addition, tropical remnants are occasionally known to throw out (typically weak) tornadoes, and we'll be on the right side of the storm track for those to possibly occur, again most likely Friday when temperatures are warmest and instability highest.

The main threat though, besides some trash can throwing wind gusts, will be heavy rain. The Weather Prediction Center currently has much of AR right up to the Mississippi River in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding Thursday into Friday morning, though I expect a similar threat to be extended in to Friday. For now, west TN and northwest MS are in a Slight Risk, but that may be higher on Friday as the storm passes to our north. Current rainfall projections from the NWS are between 4-5" for the metro through Sunday evening. This does include additional showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend after the storm passes as well.

My suggestions for preparation on Wednesday and Thursday:

Tie down or bring inside any loose outdoor objects, including patio seat cushions!
Make sure gutters and storm drains are clear of debris and ready to accept heavy rain.
Know where you'll go and have your safe place ready just in case a Tornado Warning is issued
If out in heavy rain, avoid swollen waterways (and watch your kids closely too) and don't drive into areas where water covers the road.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms unfortunately remain in the forecast for several days after Laura's remnants pass, so remember that after heavy rain has saturated the ground from Laura, additional rainfall is more likely to run off and result in flooding in low-lying areas more easily. There are early hints of a potential pattern shift as we hit the first of September. Let's get through this week first though!

Stay safe and follow us on social media for the latest information!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, August 22, 2020

It's still 2020! TWO hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico this week?

Many of you are aware, perhaps from hype articles/videos shared by unscrupulous (or perhaps just naive) sources on social media, that the Gulf of Mexico will be visited by two tropical systems this week. Typically, I devote space on this blog to weather that has impacts to the Memphis area.

Since it is appearing possible that we could get some tropical remnants later next week, which I will get into in a minute, I'm going to entertain the discussion/bust myths of merging tropical systems, the possibility of a mega-super-duper-storm, and the "new term" Fujiwhara effect.

Forecast tracks of Marco and Laura

As of 4pm Saturday, the National Hurricane Center forecasts for Marco (currently passing between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico) and Laura (sliding west of Puerto Rico towards Hispaniola) are now presenting the very real possibility not only of two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time, but a double-landfall within 48 hours of each other on the Gulf Coast, perhaps affecting the same area twice.

If two storms of at least tropical storm strength are in the Gulf at the same time, which looks likely for a short time late on Monday, it will be only the third time on record. If two hurricanes are in the Gulf at the same time, also possible, it will be the first time on record. (Of course, it's #2020.) Here are the forecasts as of 4pm CDT Saturday:

There are still a lot of uncertainties on both systems, which I will not delve into here, but it's good to remember that these forecasts can be fairly uncertain multiple days out despite advances in forecast techniques. You'll notice though that Marco now appears to be headed for the central Gulf Coast with landfall projected Monday afternoon in southeast Louisiana as a hurricane (perhaps a very strong tropical storm). Just two days later, Wednesday afternoon, Laura heads for the same approximate area as a hurricane and likely stronger than Marco. Again, lots can change - and has just in the past 24 hours. However, a double-landfall in the same general area could be devastating for said area in terms of flooding, storm surge, and strong wind that could be dealt a powerful blow by a second storm after being weakened by the first. Let's hope and pray not.

Dualing tropical systems and the Fujiwhara Effect

As for the interaction of the two, it appears right now that this is fairly unlikely given that Laura is forecast to be just entering the southern Gulf as Marco makes landfall in the northern Gulf. But let's talk for a second about the Fujiwhara Effect - a term that is indeed NOT new (just like Polar Vortex and bombogenesis), but new to us because it doesn't happen often, and rarely in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico basin. It is more common, though still somewhat rare, in the western Pacific where there tend to be more tropical systems.

The AMS Glossary of Meteorology defines it as "the tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other as a result of their circulations' mutual advection." Notice it does not say "merge into a megastorm and result in massive death and destruction." In fact, the forces acting on and around a tropical system that cause it to maintain itself would be destructive to another system that approaches it. I think the best way I have seen it described in a visual fashion is through the animation in this really cool tweet:

A lot needs to happen before recent #Fujiwhara headlines come true, but here's what it looks like in a high-res simulation.

Background rotation is turned up beyond real-Earth values to fit a bunch of tiny TCs. No other forcing, so they're allowed to purely interact on their own. pic.twitter.com/rAZMM4LU8A
— Jake Carstens (@JakeCarstens) August 21, 2020

Mesmerizing isn't it? Go ahead, watch it again.

Notice that as these "tropical storms in a virtual lab" approach each other, they tend to either repel or weaken one another, with the weaker of the two typically falling apart, sometimes with the remnants being absorbed by the larger one. So, while it doesn't appear Laura and Marco will have much influence on each other this week, if they were, it would likely just be a minor deflection of one or the other system or a further weakening of the "weakest link," not a massive COVID-cane named "Laurco."

Effects on the Mid-South

Looking out a bit further, most models that agree with the NHC assessment of the forecast tracks right now bring the remnants of Laura into the Mid-South later next week. We'll definitely be watching this as it could mean a healthy dose of precipitation - perhaps a couple of inches - and some gusty wind. Further forecasts will refine that, but for now, the Weather Prediction Center of the NWS provides the precipitation forecast for the upcoming week below, which presumes some tropical moisture moving across the Mid-South about Thursday or Friday. It's got the Memphis area solidly in the 2"+ range.

The Weather Prediction Center forecast for rainfall over the coming week. The influence of two tropical systems on the Gulf coast is easy to pick out with remnants moving north through the lower Mississippi Valley late in the week. (WPC via Pivotal Weather)


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, June 6, 2020

Tropical Storm Cristobal takes aim at the Gulf Coast, and Mid-South

As we just finish the end of the first official week of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the THIRD named storm of the year will become the SECOND U.S. landfall in what is expected to be an active season overall. Previously, Tropical Storm Arthur made a close approach to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday, May 18. That was followed by Tropical Storm Bertha, which formed and gained tropical storm strength an hour before making landfall on the South Carolina coast on May 27.

Tropical Storm Cristobal moves towards the Gulf Coast

Now, all eyes turn toward the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Cristobal churns towards the Louisiana coastline with a Sunday evening landfall projected. Due to recent interaction with the Yucatan peninsula and dry air wrapping around the system, rapid strengthening is not forecast and the system likely won't have time to gain hurricane strength before making landfall.

Saturday morning visible satellite imagery of T.S. Cristobal as it heads for the LA coastline (COD)

Primary threats from the central Louisiana coastline eastward through the MS, AL, and FL panhandle coastal areas this weekend into Monday are torrential rain that is likely to cause freshwater flooding, wind gusts to near hurricane force, up to 5 feet of storm surge, churning waters with high waves and rip currents, and isolated tornadoes.

The official track for T.S. Cristobal as of Saturday morning, via the National Hurricane Center.

Once Cristobal makes landfall, it will move north-northwest across Louisiana into Arkansas on Monday, then accelerate north and northeast into Missouri Tuesday morning and across the Corn Belt into the western Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The main impacts in the Lower Mississippi Valley and north as far as the Mid-South are likely to be gusty wind shifting from east to south, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Forecast tracks from multiple models are in fairly good consensus Saturday morning, as shown by this "spaghetti plot" of model solutions. (Tropical Tidbits)

Remnants of Cristobal to impact the Mid-South

While we won't notice anything out of the ordinary this weekend (mostly sunny with highs in the 90s), initial impacts in the Memphis area will begin Monday as clouds thicken, rain arrives around lunchtime into the afternoon and breezes pick up from the southeast.

Forecast rain amounts from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center show up to 3" in the Memphis metro, while higher amounts will occur just to the east of the center's path with lesser amounts further away. (WeatherBell)

The period of heaviest rainfall in the metro is likely to be Monday evening through Tuesday morning when 2-3" of rain could fall (heaviest in east AR) as the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to move through central AR. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight and the tornado threat will bear watching (though they are typically more common in these scenarios during the daytime hours when the sun's rays provide a little more instability). In addition, wind will pick up out of the southeast to 25-30 mph with gusts reaching 30-40 mph Monday evening and overnight.

According to the early Saturday run of the European model, maximum wind gusts through Tuesday evening will be in the 50-60 mph range just to the east of the storm's path, while we could see 40+ mph peak wind. (WeatherBell)

By Tuesday morning, with the center of the storm into central Missouri, steady rain should taper off but showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible, especially in the morning hours. Wind will likely remain gusty from the south Tuesday, in the 30-35 mph range. By Tuesday night, a cold front will push through, bringing the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms, but also escorting a drier and less humid airmass for the remainder of the week.

Preparation and cleanup weather

We recommend using this weekend to prepare for heavy rain and prolonged strong wind Monday PM into Tuesday. Make sure gutters and storm drains are clear and ready for a couple of inches of rain. Secure outdoor objects or bring them in. A few wind gusts Monday night will exceed 40 mph, but a lengthy period of 30-40 mph wind gusts is expected (up to 24 hours). Once it all passes, pleasant early summer weather with low humidity, highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the mid 60s for several days will make for ideal conditions for any cleanup that is necessary.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

How long will the heat last, and will Cristobal affect Mid-South weather?

For most of last week we had rather sunny skies, with bearable temperatures. Unfortunately, as I'm writing this blog it looks like it'll be hot and steamy over the next week...that is until a potential tropical disturbance. From the end of this week, over the weekend, and into the beginning of next week it looks like it'll be hot and steamy before the remnants of Cristobal brings tropical moisture and rain to the area (primarily on Tuesday). After the remnants of Cristobal leaves the area it looks like conditions for the middle of June could be cooler and dry.

Thursday and Friday

Our chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into Thursday (50% chance). Temperatures will only drop to the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies before our chance for showers and thunderstorms increase during the day and afternoon hours on Thursday (60% chance). Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 80s with winds coming from the southwest at about 10 mph. Luckily overnight into Friday chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease slightly (to about 30%) as temperatures drop to the lower 70s again. During Friday, the shower and rain chances will stick with us (30% chance) as we reach a hot and humid high just below 90. Friday night into Saturday we will see temperatures drop into the lower 70s, under partly cloudy skies, and with a slight chance of rain (20% chance).

The reason we are seeing the shower and thunderstorm chances stick with us is due to a pesky upper level disturbance. This upper level disturbance brings with it some cyclonic vorticity (or counter-clockwise spin in the upper levels of the atmosphere), which leads to pressure falls, instability and sometimes active weather (such as showers and storms).

500mb (18,000 feet) heights and vorticity are shown in this graphic from ECMWF output. The little green and yellow blob of cyclonic vorticity over the Memphis area is what could help create showers and storms Friday. (Wxbell)

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Saturday and Sunday will mirror each other in almost every way. Both days look like they will top out in the lower 90s, with heat indices nearing 100 (HOT and HUMID!!!!). Sky conditions on both days will be partly cloudy to partly sunny, with very low rain chances. The overnight lows heading into Saturday and Sunday will drop to the lower 70s under some clouds. As we head into Monday temperatures will drop to the mid 70s under a mostly cloudy sky. Monday we have a chance of rain showers (30%) as we top out near 90 once again.

Tuesday and Wednesday (Cristobal)

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed in the Bay of Campeche near southern Mexico and will sit down there for a couple days before moving north towards the Gulf Coast. It'll likely make landfall somewhere along the LA coastline late Sunday then continue north towards the Mid-South. Looks like it could be wet if you're headed to the AL/FL beaches to start next week. On Tuesday we might see the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal reach Memphis bringing with it tropical moisture, some soaking rain, and temps in the mid 80s. As of right now the European Model is predicting around 1" of rain, with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) predicting 1-2" of rain. Overnight temperatures heading into Wednesday will drop to the mid 70s before a pleasant Wednesday arrives in the area. On Wednesday we will likely top out in the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

European model output showing rain totals for early next week. The model gives us around one inch of rain in the metro area as it tracks Cristobal through AR. (WxBell)

This is how much rain is predicted to fall by the WPC late Monday into late Tuesday. Rain totals predicted by the WPC look to be between one and two inches.

This is the ensemble "spaghetti" plots for the GFS, Euro, and UKMET models. Spaghetti plots are primarily used to show the numerous potential paths for Cristobal. They show some obvious spread in the paths but it looks like we'll still get something out of this (Weathernerds.org).

How long will the heat last?

After the remnants of Cristobal pass during the first half of the week, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting that temperatures will be more pleasant, possibly below normal. The CPC is also predicting that precipitation could be below normal, potentially making for a pleasant and dry period from June 11th-17th.

Temperature outlook provided by the CPC showing that temperatures in Memphis could be a little below normal from June 11th-17th.

Precipitation outlook provided by the CPC showing that precipitation in Memphis could be a little below normal from June 11th-17th.

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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