Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Consider the forecast before making those Thanksgiving holiday plans!

After two weeks of cold weather, a little bit of a warmup is in store for the southeast this week! The past couple of days have shown this cold trend. Temperatures on Saturday only reached the low 40s with lows in the upper 20s. Sunshine was abundant on Sunday as temperatures were once again in the low 40s with an even colder night than Saturday. Yesterday was the first day of our warmup with temperatures climbing into the low 50s as a warm front is beginning to make its way through. Despite the chilly weather, skies have been mostly clear the past few days as a high pressure was over our region. This week, a low-pressure system is going to be moving into the area from the southern plains which will bring some warmer temperatures but also a good bit of rain Thursday and into Friday.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday

Today temperatures are continuing to be on the rise with highs near 60 degrees with mostly sunny skies. While this is average for this time of the year, it is going to be great relief from the chilly weather we have been experiencing. Tuesday night will be chilly with temperatures in the upper 30s, but temperatures will warm up to the low to mid 60s for the day Wednesday thanks to the warm front and high pressure that is continuing to push through the area. Skies are going to be partly sunny with clouds increasing through the day but no rain is expected. Wednesday is looking to be a beautiful day for anyone traveling for Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving and Black Friday

Surface weather map for Thursday morning showing the rain for the area caused by the low-pressure system over Oklahoma. (Weather Prediction Center) 

As the high pressure moves out of the area, a low-pressure system will begin to take its place, which is going to make for a soggy Turkey Day. Rain showers are looking to begin early Thursday morning and will continue to be scattered throughout the area through late morning. Widespread rain will be moving in from the southwest during the afternoon due to the low-pressure system and cold front that is going to park itself over Oklahoma and Texas. Despite this, temperatures will rise to the low 60s. With winds from the east/southeast, plenty of moisture will be available for this system to use from the Gulf. We could see anywhere from one-half to over two inches of rainfall in the region through midnight Thursday with amounts being greater to the south.

Total rainfall forecasted through Friday at noon. (Weather Prediction Center) 

On Friday, we see a large upper-level trough continuing to move east into the southeast region of the country. Thursday’s rainfall will decrease and end into the Friday morning hours, leaving mostly cloudy skies for Black Friday shopping. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-50s, after the Thanksgiving rain, but still warmer than last week! Going into the nighttime hours, temperatures will drop into the mid-40s so a jacket will be needed for any evening shopping or playoff football! We will likely see rain showers from the low-pressure system to the south, especially as we head later into Friday night.

500mb (18,000') pressure and wind pattern from the GFS model showing the large upper level low pressure system, which will be responsible for our Friday and Saturday rain chances, centered over Oklahoma/Texas on Friday. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday and Sunday

Scattered showers will continue into Saturday morning. By Saturday night the low pressure system will have moved north/northeast and the rain will have moved out of the area. High temperatures will rise to the mid-50s and the low will be in the lower 40s. Going into Sunday, a high-pressure system trailing behind the low pressure that just moved out is going to fill into the area. This ridge is going to dry us out once again for the end of the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will warm up to around 60 and the low will drop to the mid-40s. After a wet holiday week and beginning of the weekend, Sunday is going to be pleasant and dry with partly cloudy skies.

As low-pressure moves out of the area late Saturday, high pressure will move into the area Sunday, as shown by the GFS model. (Pivotal Weather)
Kailah Gordon
MWN Intern

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

No comments: