Exclusive "MWN Smoke Zone" forecast for 4th of July fireworks

Happy Independence Day!

Yesterday, we produced our first "MWN Smoke Zone" forecasts and got some positive feedback, so we thought we'd do it again for tonight's shows downtown and in Germantown.  Overall, the weather tonight should be great for July 4th, though maybe not quite as comfortable as last night. Humidity will be a little higher and temps a few degrees warmer, but we won't come anywhere close to the 100-degree reading of last July 4th this afternoon!  There is a low chance of a shower around late this afternoon and early evening, but most should be gone by 9pm.

Tonight's Smoke Zone forecasts are based on a light east to east-southeast wind at about 5-7 mph. There could be a slight southeast wind that could push the smoke zones slightly farther north than indicated.  Smoke from fireworks can be difficult to breathe for folks with asthma or other breathing conditions and it's an annoyance for everyone else! Here's what to expect tonight in Germantown and downtown.

Germantown

Fireworks are shot from the parking lot in front of Germantown Centre on Exeter. Smoke should drift across Germantown Centre itself and probably the northern half or so of Municipal Park, then into residential areas west of Germantown Road between Neshoba Rd and Farmington Blvd. See the map below for a rough estimate of where smoke should travel.

Downtown Memphis

Two fireworks displays will occur downtown tonight, one after the Memphis Redbirds game concludes at AutoZone Park around 9pm and another on Mud Island around 10pm. In the case of Mud Island, smoke should cause very little problem for visitors, as it will blow west across the southern tip of the island over the river and into AR.  Low-level smoke from Redbirds fireworks may tend to linger a bit in the stadium as wind swirls slightly, however above a few hundred feet, it will blow towards the 3rd base side of the stands and across downtown, generally north and south of Union Avenue by a few blocks either way, before likely moving right over the fireworks site on Mud Island. A slight southeast wind would move it overhead the Mud Island Riverpark itself. See the map below for a rough estimate of where smoke should travel from both displays.

Happy Independence Day, be safe, and enjoy the celebrations!

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Exclusive "MWN Smoke Zone" forecast for Wednesday night fireworks

With a few large fireworks shows going on tonight, and FANTASTIC weather to enjoy them, we put together our first "MWN Smoke Zone" forecasts.  Smoke from fireworks can be difficult to breathe for folks with asthma or other lung conditions and it's an annoyance for everyone else! Here's what to expect tonight in Bartlett, Collierville, and Millington, based on a northeast to east surface wind at about 5 mph.

Bartlett

Fireworks are shot from the ball fields at the Flaherty Municipal Center. Smoke should drift across the fields towards the south end of Appling Lake and just north of Kings Daughters and Sons Home.  Those north of the fields by Appling Middle School or Bartlett Performing Arts Center should be in the clear.  See the map below for a rough estimate of where smoke should travel.

Collierville

Fireworks are shot from the ball fields at H.W. Cox Park.  Smoke should drift across the fields to residential areas west of the park, north of Powell Road and west of Byhalia Road. Areas north and east of the park will have smoke-free viewing conditions. See the map below for a rough estimate of where smoke should travel.

Millington

Fireworks are shot from the west side of Navy Lake, just off the end of Runway 04 at Millington Regional Airport.  Smoke should drift west and all viewing areas are to the east of the lake, so no smoke should get in the way of what should be optimal viewing conditions!  (A map is not provided as the affected area will not be populated.)

Happy Independence Day, be safe, and enjoy the celebrations!

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Severe weather possible Wednesday night, then MUCH colder on Thursday

The unusually warm temperatures so far this month have meant a couple of chances of severe weather and it appears we have another one in store. A potent winter low pressure system will move out of the Rockies and into the southern Plains on Wednesday, then heads towards Chicago by Thursday morning.  A forecast of blizzard conditions across the central Plains into the Midwest portends a strong system and with the Mid-South in the warm sector of the system, we can expect equally impact-ful weather, only not of the white variety!

The low pressure system responsible for the significant storm will be over northern OK early Wednesday evening. Ahead of the low, wind at the surface and well overhead will increase and showers and thunderstorms will break out across eastern OK and TX into western AR and LA. The wind energy associated with this system will be the main ingredient that forces the development of a line of thunderstorms during the evening hours well to our west.

As the low moves towards central MO during the evening, storms will break out along and ahead of the cold front and organize into a broken line that will stretch across central AR and down I-30 into northeast TX by about midnight.  We expect this line to solidify and move through the metro in the early morning hours Thursday, or likely between 3-6am.

As for impacts, the main threat with the line will be strong to damaging thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 55-70 mph along the squall line.  With that much wind in place, both at the surface and above the region, an isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out, but the threat is minimal and seems to be focused over central AR.  However, the vast majority of the wind energy will be of the straight-line variety.

Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Wednesday night. Click for larger image.

Outside of the severe weather threat, the Mid-South will also encounter a rapid and significant change in conditions behind the front on Thursday.  While temperatures will approach 70 on Wednesday with gusty southerly wind, Thursday will see daytime highs in the lower 50s occur around dawn, with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by mid-afternoon. In addition, west to northwest wind gusting as high as 30-40+ mph Thursday will produce a bad hair day, as well as make temps in the 40s feel downright brutal after upper 60s on Wednesday.

Behind the cold front, temps will fall into the 40s Thursday and wind will gust to 30-40 mph. Click for larger image

Plan ahead for how you will get severe weather information if power is disrupted or you are asleep.  Multiple ways to receive warnings is important, but you also need a way that will still work if the power goes out.  The MemphisWeather.net mobile app will give you the latest radar information, forecast, and current conditions, as well as access to our real-time storm nowcasting via links to MWN on Facebook and Twitter (links also below).  Add StormWatch+ to your app for severe weather notifications, including optional "wake-me-up" audio alerts in case of severe thunderstorms while you are asleep.

In the longer term (Christmas time), models are hinting at another strong system for the middle of next week.  While there is plenty of time to determine exact impacts to the Mid-South, don't be surprised to see a  wet forecast with the potential for thunder around Christmas. We'll monitor and keep you updated.

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Strong autumn cold front to bring wind and another round of storms

After a nice rain yesterday (most areas received anywhere from 0.50"-2.00" of rain Sunday), another round of storms will be knocking on our doorstep early Tuesday. A very strong low pressure system will explode over the Northern Plains tonight (see the first map above, valid at 7am Tuesday). That low will quickly usher through a cold front that will blast through the region during the morning hours.

Due to the strength of the entire system, high wind will be the primary threat, even before the storms get here. Southerly wind will gust above 30 mph, perhaps with isolated gusts to 40 mph, after midnight tonight through the mid-morning hour tomorrow. As the front nears, a squall line is expected to form and race through the region. The wind driving the front will be blowing at near 70 mph in the lower levels of the atmosphere and some of this wind could get pushed near the surface in the storm downdrafts, bringing a threat of isolated damaging wind gusts. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for the metro area for tomorrow morning (see map 2 above).

Behind the front, skies may clear briefly, but expect a mostly cloudy day with wind diminishing during the afternoon and temps falling through the 60s.

MemphisWeather.net will have you covered during this potential severe weather event. Regular updates will be provided on our social media channels (see links below) and interactive MWN StormView Radar will show you where the storms are, where they are headed, and just how strong they are. Be sure to also sign up for severe weather alerts for the Memphis metro area, courtesy of MWN.

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Slight risk of severe weather tonight

Severe Weather Outlook

Tornado probability

Hail Probability

Damaging Wind Probability

A severe weather threat exists for the entire region beginning late this afternoon and continuing tonight. The graphics above outline the slight risk area and depict the probability of (top to bottom) tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind within 25 miles of any point. Click each image for a larger version. More info from NWS-Memphis:

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 4 PM CST AND MIDNIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 9 PM CST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION... HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

Stay tuned to MemphisWeather.net and commercial TV and radio outlets, as well as NOAA Weather Radio, for the latest on the possibility of severe weather.

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High wind to affect the Mid-South Christmas Eve

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
745 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...

.INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS EVE CAUSING STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

IN ADDITION... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE THE WINDS... HENCE A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MID-SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON... OR BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM CST.

THOUGH THE WIND WATCH EXPIRES THURSDAY AT MIDNIGHT... GUSTY WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. COUPLED WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S... WIND CHILLS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON THURSDAY...

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY NOON THROUGH THURSDAY MIDNIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY NOON THROUGH THURSDAY MIDNIGHT.

* EXPECT WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MILES AN HOUR WITH GUSTS TO 40 MILES AN HOUR THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MILES AN HOUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIME OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

* WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH CAN FALL TREES WHICH CAN THEN TAKE DOWN POWER LINES OR LAND ON HOMES AND BUSINESSES. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO HANDLE. OUTDOOR HOLIDAY DECORATIONS SHOULD BE SECURED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED... OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH... OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

NWS/MWN

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T.S. Danny and a bit of "green" irony

Tropical Storm Danny was named yesterday morning and is now a storm with 60 mph wind moving northwest across the western Atlantic, northeast of the Bahamas. The storm is not well-organized with the strongest wind well removed northeast of the center of the storm. Current projections indicate that interests from the Outer Banks of N.C. up through New England should keep a close eye on the storm. The latest forecast track, satellite imagery, etc. are posted on the MWN Tropical page.

Elsewhere, I find it a bit ironic that one method of reducing greenhouse emissions in order to supposedly have a positive impact on weather and climate may be causing another weather problem. As reported by the Associated Press ("Wind Farms Can Appear Sinister To The Weatherman"), National Weather Service meteorologists are finding that wind farms that are springing up across the country are affecting the quality of their Doppler radar data. In some cases, the complex computer algorithms that process the radar data are erroneously alerting radar operators to tornadoes over the wind farms! In many cases, wind turbines located within several miles of a Doppler radar are causing poor data quality in the velocity (wind) data that meteorologists use in the detection of hazardous weather. An excellent write-up with examples of the poor radar data can be found on the NWS-Buffalo website.

So, let me get this right... to help offset the effects of "human-induced climate change" and produce clean energy, we build wind farms that subsequently cause false warnings of tornadoes and other potentially bad weather! Obviously, it's up to the radar operators to filter out these false warnings before alerting the public, but the best case may be to shut these turbines down when hazardous weather is affecting the area around the wind farm (besides the fact that this type of interference should be considered before nstalling these turbines). Be sure to read the articles linked above for more info.

Finally, the MWN Forecast will not be updated from Friday through Sunday as I will be out of town participating in my sister's wedding. Have a great weekend!

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Mid-South max wind speeds for Feb. 11, 2009

Location                speed              time
---------------------------------------------------
Paris TN (PHT)          55 mph          256 PM CST
Jonesboro AR (JBR)      53 mph         1241 PM CST
Jackson TN (MKL)        53 mph          148 PM CST
Blytheville AR (HKA)    52 mph          822 AM CST
Dyersburg TN (DYR)      52 mph          155 AM CST
Union City TN (UCY)     51 mph          151 PM CST
Memphis TN (MEM)        51 mph         1144 AM CST
Millington TN (NQA)     48 mph          150 AM CST
North Jackson TN        47 mph          130 PM CST
Tunica MS (UTA)         47 mph          615 AM CST
Tupelo MS (TUP)         44 mph          142 PM CST
Savannah TN (SNH)       43 mph         1236 PM CST
Lexington TN (PVE)      43 mph          338 PM CST
Yalobusha MS (YAL)      43 mph          809 AM CST
Harrisburg AR (LPS)     41 mph          110 AM CST
West Memphis AR (AWM)   41 mph          103 AM CST
Tishomingo MS (TIS)     40 mph          114 PM CST
Bartlett TN (WXLIVE)    39 mph         1111 AM CST 
Marianna AR (SF2)       37 mph         1239 AM CST
Winborn MS (WIN)        35 mph          909 AM CST

6:30am - Narrow squall line crossing the river

At 6:30am, MWN StormView Radar (shown above) is depicting a fast-moving but narrow squall line crossing the river into downtown Memphis and Shelby Forest and also approaching the airport in south Memphis. This line will move across the metro area over the next hour, bringing brief torrential rain and wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Behind this line, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue for a couple of hours, but I expect most precipitation to be east of the city by 9:00-9:30. Wind will shift to the southwest but remain very gusty through the morning and early afternoon.

Have any damage reports? Things being blown around that usually aren't? Leave me a comment below!

High Wind Warning for Memphis

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
345 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS. LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE IN THE EARLY MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT PRIOR TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FOLLOWING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...FROM 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE... INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA... WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS OF 45 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 50 MPH AFTER 3 AM CST. A SQUALL LINE WILL PASS THROUGH THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 5-8 AM CST. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SQUALL LINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PREVAIL. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXP ECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

RESIDENTS OF THE MID-SOUTH ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS... AND BE READY TO ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS AS NECESSARY. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED BEFORE THE STRONG WINDS ARRIVE. STAY WITH MEMPHISWEATHER.NET... BLOG.MEMPHISWEATHER.NET... NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO... AND COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS WEATHER SCENARIO.

$$

NWS/MWN

Saturday mid-day update

Temperature records are falling across the region. As of 1pm, Memphis Int'l has broken the 119-year-old record of 76 degrees with a new record high of 77! Wind gusts have reached 46 mph at the airport as well. In Jackson, TN, the previous record high of 70 degrees has been obliterated by 5 degrees already, with the potential for another couple degrees of warming yet. Wind gusts have also reached the 40 mph mark in Jackson.

The severe weather threat remains in place, and in fact has been upgraded for locations north and west of Memphis. A MODERATE RISK is now in effect for northern AR, southeast MO, and southwest IL. The timing of the squall line (which is moving into central AR at 1pm) is still on track for a 6-9pm arrival in the metro area. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and commercial TV or radio, plus MemphisWeather.net, for the latest on the severe weather threat. I expect a watch box will be issued for the region late this afternoon.

Memphis weather items of note

Several weather-related items of note this morning, and since I haven't written about the weather in a few days, I'm behind!

Yesterday's high of 73 was 1 degree off the record here in Memphis. And this morning's balmy low of 67 would shatter the record for highest minimum temp of 59 if we didn't have that pesky front coming through this evening, which will drop the daily low below that record by several degrees. High temps today will be in the mid 70s with a little sunshine. The record is 76, so once again we'll get close. I am expecting 74, but with more sunshine than expected, 76 may be in jeopardy!

We are also under a WIND ADVISORY until midnight tonight as it will be another very warm, very windy day. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph during the daytime hours. Make sure that outdoor objects are buttoned up or you could lose them! Driving high-profile vehicles could also be difficult today due to the wind gusts.

The other note for today relates to the possibility of severe weather as the front passes through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the metro area under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather, with the greatest threat being damaging wind and small hail as a squall line passes. The line will likely pass through the city between 6-9pm tonight. Conditions will quickly improve after the front passes, with skies clearing after midnight.


The New Year's week forecast looks pretty good right now with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 35-40 degree range, which are both slightly above normal. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through New Year's Eve. A frontal system will move through Thursday or Friday (timing of this one is still a little fuzzy), so expect some rain late in the week and cooler temps headed into next weekend.

A messy weather day in the Mid-South

As advertised, rain and some t'storms are overspreading the region this morning ahead of a developing low pressure system that will pass to our west and a strong cold front. Temperatures this morning are running in the low to mid 50s and wind is gusty out of the south. Expect more of the same throughout the day with wind gusts as high as 35-40 mph, prompting the issuance of a Wind Advisory. Rainfall totals through midnight tonight will be in the 2-3" range, especially east of the MS River, so minor flooding in areas normally prone to flooding will be possible. In addition, some thunderstorms this afternoon and through rush hour could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has placed north Mississippi under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather today. The best chance for strong storms will be just ahead of the cold front, which will pass through Memphis in the early evening hours. A few storms cold contain hail and damaging wind gusts, mainly south of the city.

Following the cold front, much colder air will infiltrate the Mid-South with temps dropping overnight to around 40 by daybreak Wednesday, but not recovering much, if at all, during the daytime hours on Wednesday as a steady northwest wind pours cold air into the region. There is a chance of ...winter weather... (gasp!) Wednesday night/Thursday, again mainly to the south of the city. More on this in an upcoming blog. Stay tuned, and stay dry!

Severe weather later today

The Mid-South continues to be in a MODERATE risk for severe weather for this afternoon and evening. In addition, a Flash Flood Watch and Wind Advisory are in effect as rain could come quickly with this system, posing a flash flood threat, and windy conditions will prevail all day and tonight with gusts over 40 mph possible.

Here's what the NWS-Memphis office has to say:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE HIGHLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT BOW ECHOES MOVE THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM CDT AND 11 PM CDT ACROSS FAR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

Be prepared for the possibility of severe weather later today and tonight - have a plan ahead of time in case severe weather strikes and review severe weather safety tips now.