Eclipse, severe storms, and heavy rain - oh my!

Next week will be a busy week to be a meteorologist! Let's set expectations as we head into it...

Saturday

The cooler weather of the past few days is relenting as high pressure shifts east and a southerly flow of air moves over the region. Temperatures will moderate today, especially once morning high clouds depart, allowing for highs in the upper 60s. A perfect day to begin your outdoor planting, as it appears the frost potential is probably over for the spring.

Sunday

A weak front moves into the area Sunday night. Ahead of it, south wind will become gusty, reaching 30 mph in the afternoon, and temperatures will reach the mid 70s as clouds also increase. We'll see scattered showers and a few t'storms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A couple of these storms could get a little feisty from late afternoon until just after sunset, so the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the area for a Marginal Risk of a severe storm. That's just a level 1 on the 5-point scale, so no widespread problems are affected, but isolated storms could have some hail or gusty wind, and a brief tornado can't be completely ruled out due to the wind shear in place. All of this comes to an end by 9-10pm.

Eclipse Day!

We've been watching this closely every day for the past week and are finally getting into a window of time where our high-resolution models are seeing the early afternoon hours Monday, offering more guidance on the forecast. I am fairly confident that morning low clouds will occur as the Sunday night front washes out over us. I'm also confident that conditions will remain dry through the afternoon. 

Confidence dips a bit as we look at lingering clouds Monday afternoon when the eclipse occurs. Morning clouds should be breaking up by noon, but to what extent remains to be seen. The most likely scenario is that they will mostly clear during the afternoon, but timing is a bit uncertain. Also, high thin cirrus clouds will be arriving in the afternoon. These will have less effect on eclipse viewing. Like a 5-year-old lying about whether he broke your favorite vase, you should be able to see right through those. All that said, I think there is a good chance the eclipse will be visible at times during the nearly 3-hour event. At maximum eclipse around 2pm? Here's hoping we all get a glimpse! 

Forecast cloud cover at the time of the eclipse on Monday afternoon, courtesy NWS-Memphis

For those heading west, in general, a similar forecast for the I-40 corridor in Arkansas. There is probably a better chance of decent viewing conditions north of I-40 than south of it due to those lower clouds. However, for the experience of totality that simply cannot be matched in a 97% coverage area like Memphis, it's worth the trip in my book, and I'm taking the opportunity! 

We'll start to see those clouds to our south pull further north as the afternoon and evening progress, both here and in Arkansas, as a very wet pattern starts to set up. Monday night could see the first of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as a warm front moves north. A few of those storms could contain marginally severe hail and some wind gusts overnight.

Tuesday-Thursday

We're expecting what may be more wet hours than dry for a couple of days mid-week, with bouts of thunderstorms embedded in rain. Some of those could be strong, especially Wednesday to Wednesday night, though more likely in north MS and southern AR than west TN. With repeated rounds of rainfall, multiple inches of pollen-cleansing rain are in order! We'll hope the severe stuff stays away, but you'll want to stay in touch for further updates as overnight storms are a possibility. 

By Thursday, low pressure responsible for all the rain will be moving through the Mid-South, tapering the stormy weather off to showers. By Friday, rain should be done and the drying process can commence as we head into the middle weekend of April. Overall, temperatures throughout the mid- to late-week period will be mild as high temperatures will be within a few degrees of 70 and lows will fall only into the 50s and 60s. 

Here's to amazing eclipse viewing conditions and sturdy umbrellas next week!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Details on this weekend's weather for Beale Street Music Festival #BSMF

It's back!! After a couple years hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beale Street Music Fest is back at full volume, albeit at a new location (temporarily) while Tom Lee Park receives a major renovation. Liberty Park at the Fairgrounds is the new location, with stages and vendors setup on Tiger Lane and the area west of the Liberty Bowl for the three-day festival. 

Because it occurs during the rainy/stormy season, Memphis in May, and BSMF in particular, tend to also be referred to colloquially as "Memphis in Mud," although a couple of factors may make this year's rendition unable to live up to that name. First is the abundance of concrete, which, though harder on the feet, may keep festival-goers from having to trash the foot gear at the end of the weekend! Secondly, with one important exception, most of the weekend looks to be warm and dry! Let's break down the forecast, with particular focus on that "exception" mentioned above.

Friday

You really can't ask for much better weather for opening day. Gates open at 5pm to mostly sunny skies with a warm breeze from the south and temperatures in the lower 80s. As the evening goes along, some clouds will float by, but it remains dry as temperatures slip through the 70s with a fresh south breeze continuing. By the time headliners take the stage, temperatures will be in the lower 70s. Overall, a great way to start the weekend!

Saturday

Saturday looks pretty good for the majority of the day. Those warm southerly breezes will have picked up and occasionally gust to about 30 mph as temperatures again reach the lower 80s by the time music starts at 2pm. There is a small chance of a couple passing showers late afternoon into the early evening, but nothing I am overly concerned about. (After all, it is a "rain-or-shine" event.) A bit more cloud cover foreshadows that slight increase in rain potential late in the day, but the majority of the musical acts are likely to have no issue other than some sweat from a corresponding increase in humidity! 

Late in the evening to early overnight, a cold front will move through. This brings our "exception" referenced earlier, and a pretty good chance of rain and a few thunderstorms along the front. Timing could still waver a bit, and later would be better in this case as we hope it holds off until after the music ends, but as of Friday morning, the potential for storms increases pretty quickly after about 10pm, and drops off after 1am. While lightning and heavy downpours would be likely with any storms, the risk for severe weather is low. A few strong wind gusts or small hail are the primary threats should storms become strong. 

The HRRR model "forecast radar" product valid from 3pm Saturday to 3am Sunday. The time period from about 10pm-1am Saturday night is when this model believes storms are possible in Memphis. (WeatherBell)

Note that while BSMF is "rain-or-shine," lightning and more significant storms are not "rain" by this definition. Some of you have probably been to Memphis in May events in which storms resulted in an evacuation of the park for a time. We'll cross our fingers that the forecasted storms either arrive just after music ends, or dodge the Fairgrounds entirely. (Full disclosure: MWN provides on-site meteorologists for all Memphis in May events, keeping MIM officials constantly informed in the event of inclement weather. MWN does not issue evacuation orders.)

Sunday

With the cold front to our south in north Mississippi by Sunday morning, the sunshine returns, wind is lighter, and humidity levels will also be down just a bit, making for a perfect day to be outdoors! Music starts at 2pm with temperatures again just above 80 degrees, but I expect 80 on Sunday will feel better than 80 on Saturday. As the sun sets in the evening, temperatures will be in the 70s and falling towards the upper 60s by the time the gates close. 

 

Whatever you have planned this weekend, have fun and stay safe! We'll be keeping you updated on our social media feeds all weekend along.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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An early taste of summer! Also monitoring rain chances for #BSMF18

Mother Nature has outdone herself to finish up the month of April and begin May. Summer-like temps will be the main story line for this week with dry conditions expected through Thursday.

Today & Tomorrow

Currently, a surface high pressure system sits in Kentucky driving our clear weather and keeping all rain chances away.

12Z Surface Analysis displays a high pressure located over parts of the Ohio River Valley. This high pressure is driving our current weather pattern and aiding in the clear skies we will see today. (NOAA/WPC)

Highs today look to reach near average with temps expected to reach the 77° mark. With clear skies all day today continuing into the overnight hours, lows will fall to 57° tonight. Luckily, another rapid warm-up is expected for tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies will allow temps to reach into the 80s with a high of 82° for tomorrow.

Wednesday & Thursday

For those who have been patiently waiting for above average temps to return, they will finally be here Wednesday and Thursday. Ample amounts of low-level warm air advection will help to bring our temps to the above average point. Both days will be characterized by highs in the mid 80s and partly sunny skies. 

Dew point temps look to be in the low 60s both days, so you may get some of that sticky feeling if you are outside for long periods of time. Additionally, we may need to keep an eye on the winds both days as winds may come close to the 15 mph mark with gusts upwards of 25 mph. Overnight lows both nights will stay pretty warm with temps in the upper 60s. 

Looking Ahead to the Weekend

It's the first official weekend of May and it will be a very summer-like preview. Many events are ongoing this weekend including Memphis in May's Beale Street Music Festival. Whether you're planning to head down to Tom Lee Park or enjoying the weekend another way, temps will be around to just above average throughout the weekend. 

So what exactly is in-store for our Friday through Sunday period? Friday and early Saturday both have the possibility of some rain while Sunday appears to be rain-free. On Friday, temps look to reach into the low 80s. The semi-bad news for Friday is that there is the possibility of some scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a weakening cold front moving through the area. The cold front may provide enough lift for some thunderstorm development; however, severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point. Temps will remain fairly mild Friday night with overnight lows only dipping into the mid 60s. 

Some of Friday's showers may continue into the morning hours on Saturday.

GFS forecast precipitation loop from early Friday morning through midday on Saturday. (Tropical Tidbits)

Once the showers dissipate, Saturday afternoon lingering cloud coverage will leave us with mostly cloudy skies through the remainder of the day. Luckily, highs will stay in the upper 70s, so plenty of warmth for those with outdoor plans. 

Sunday appears to be the best day for this upcoming weekend. A surface high pressure looks to dominate much of the eastern U.S., keeping any rain chances out of our area. Along with our mostly sunny skies for the day, it will actually be pretty comfortable temperature wise as well. Highs in the upper 70s with dew point temperatures in the mid 50s will result in some nice, non-sticky weather for Sunday. 

Editor's Note: Similar to recent years, MWN will be on-site as the official weather partner for BSMF this weekend, doing our best to ward away the storms and keeping you and tens of thousands of your closest friends safe and comfortable! Keep up with the latest forecast information via the MWN mobile app leading up to, and during, the weekend events. Link to download is below. /EP

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Easter weekend and #MLK50 events - what to expect weather-wise

The wet pattern of the week has shifted east, the sun is coming out, and cooler early spring temperatures are back... for a minute. Here's what to expect as we head into the Easter weekend and next week when all eyes turn to Memphis as the life of Martin Luther King Jr. is honored.

Saturday

Friday's reprieve from recent rains (after which, believe it or not, we still aren't quite up to "average" for a normal month of March) continues into Saturday. As high pressure shifts east, southerly wind returns and becomes gusty in the afternoon. A chilly morning in the lower 40s quickly warms under bright sun and that south wind to the lower 60s by lunchtime. Morning egg hunts will be in great shape, but pack a jacket for the little tykes. By afternoon, as we approach 70°, high clouds start to roll in - the first sign of another weather shift due in early Sunday.

Easter Sunday

I wish I could say it will be a carbon copy of Saturday, but alas, we'll be under the influence of a much different, and cooler, airmass. Showers fall behind a front that arrives in the pre-dawn hours so sunrise worship services should likely be ready to move indoors with temperatures around 50°. Rain tapers off during the morning, but low pressure looks poised to travel along the front Sunday afternoon and evening, which likely brings another round of showers. The cool airmass will be noticeable with highs that may not climb much from morning lows thanks to clouds, precipitation, and a northeast breeze. In fact, some models are indicating we could actually fall into the 40s during the afternoon as rain falls. Yuck!

Plan on a rain jacket or warm sweater over those pretty Easter dresses Sunday. Rain and very cool air are expected thanks to that cold front straddled over the area! (NWS)

Monday

The cooler airmass on Sunday will realize quickly that it was unwanted, thus its stay will be brief.

Sunday's cold front turns right back around as a warm front and lifts north from whence it came, bringing a chance of morning showers, but then improving conditions by afternoon. After a low in the 40s, we'll be back near 70° by late afternoon with the sun exerting its influence and busting up the morning clouds. Overall, not a bad day at all.

Tuesday

A breezy day as low pressure approaches from the west, but high pressure maintains its grip to our east. South wind will mean warmer conditions with highs in the mid 70s after a mild start to the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could start to break out by afternoon though as that low and its sidekick, the cold front, approach. I'd be surprised if the day were completely dry.

The American GFS model valid overnight Tuesday night shows a widespread rain associated with the passage of a cold front (blue line) that pushes quickly to the east. Rain should be gone by Wednesday morning, (WxBell)

Models are in generally good agreement that that system moves through the Mid-South Tuesday night. It will be a wet one with showers and thunderstorms likely overnight. For now, the severe risk remains low, but it'll be worth monitoring as we get closer.

Wednesday

The actual anniversary of MLK's death will see quickly improving conditions as Tuesday night's system exits stage-east, post haste. High pressure moves back in with mostly sunny skies for much of the day as network and cable news cameras roll. It will once again be cooler, but the sun will help. We might see 60° by afternoon, but then again we might not. Hopefully, despite the event being remembered, the city will be cast in a positive light. At least we know we'll get a good pollen washing Tuesday night.

Thursday-Friday

Spring generally means a couple of frontal systems a week with rapidly-fluctuating temperatures. The end of next week begins the next warm-up, but also the arrival of yet another frontal system by late in the work week.

As always, you can stay up to date on the latest in Memphis and Mid-South weather by following our social media accounts and downloading the MemphisWeather.net app. Links are provided below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Liberty Bowl forecast, NYE snow chances, and more Arctic cold

The cold is here, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon! Unfortunately the best we can expect is some fluctuations in the magnitude of the cold, but not necessarily a full reprieve for a while.

Let's start with the near-term. After a couple of bitterly cold days, the next reprieve arrives tomorrow and Saturday when high temperatures climb to 40° (slightly higher Friday) after cold early morning hours. Wind actually turns southerly for a brief period Friday afternoon through early Saturday  before the next Arctic front seeps through the Mid-South Saturday afternoon.

For those attending the AutoZone Liberty Bowl Saturday, it will definitely be chilly, but it could be worse! Wind will pick up a bit during the game to around 10 mph, which will keep wind chills near freezing, though highs will reach near 40° during the game.

Though it will be cold, it won't even be in the top 10 coldest Liberty Bowl games on record. Below are the coldest Liberty Bowl games, courtesy of Bryan Moss-Namowicz of TigerSportsReport.com. The most recent bitterly cold game was January 2, 2010 (shown as the 2009 game) when Arkansas beat East Carolina, 20-17 in overtime, with a game-time temperature of 29°.

After Saturday, all eyes turn to New Year's Eve on Sunday, which is the day local meteorologists have been hemming-and-hawing over snow chances since the beginning of the week. At this time, confidence is increasing that we will see no more than flurries on Sunday with temperatures in the 20s all day.

The model history on this event is that the American GFS model was forecasting light accumulation of snow on New Year's Eve for about the last week, until Thursday night. The European model had insisted on dry weather for the same period of time. On Thursday, roles reversed. The morning European model decided light snow was likely Sunday. Meantime, the American model was backing off. The European snow lasted for two model runs (Thursday morning and evening) before it too returned to form. As of today, with the shorter-range NAM model joining the fray and the Canadian model kicked in for good measure, models are now unanimous that no accumulating snow is expected. Flurries can't be ruled out. And it will be bitterly cold.

The Thursday morning European model valid on Sunday shows precipitation to our west and south, moving to the southeast, missing the Mid-South. (WxBell)

The Thursday afternoon GFS model valid on Sunday also shows precipitation to our south, moving away and missing the Mid-South. (WxBell)

The Thursday afternoon NAM model valid on Sunday also shows precipitation to our south, moving away and missing the Mid-South. Overall, we currently predict only flurries for the metro. (WxBell)

2017 will end, and 2018 will begin, on a stupid cold note with highs in the 20s Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday. Lows will be well down into the teens both Monday and Tuesday. It'll be a time to remember the pets, plants, and pipes! It looks like we may get back above freezing (briefly) on Wednesday before another round of cold air arrives to end the week. Looking long-term, a more significant warm-up looks to be on the horizon heading into the first weekend of January. Let's all hope! Check the latest MWN Forecast anytime via the web or our mobile app. Links are below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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5 Musings as November comes to an end

The month of November is wrapping up and we now head into the season in which people start asking (more) about important things (like snow). It's also the end of a couple of other seasons though. Here's more on that, as well as a look ahead to this weekend's beautiful weather, a major weather pattern shift on the horizon, and why a satellite that produces amazing imagery went dark today.

1. November 30 marks the end of what we in the business refer to as "meteorological fall." We all know that REAL (astronomical) winter doesn't start for a few weeks yet. But weather folks have to be different. So for us, winter starts tomorrow. That's mainly because when computing climate statistics and so forth it's much easier to break the seasons by in 3-month groupings at the start/end of a month. September-November was fall, and it ended warm. Check out these numbers: 63, 68, 66, 67, 68, 67, 68. Those are the high temperatures for the past week. Who says we don't get fall? For the meteorological season, our unofficial average temperature was 65.1°, or roughly 1 degree above the long-term average. Precipitation totaled 7.46", which is a bit over 5" below average, with only 1.81" of that falling in November. That results in conditions like this:

The U.S. Drought Monitor, zoomed into the Lower Mississippi Valley, shows "abnormally dry" conditions creeping into the metro from the south.

2. November 30 also marks the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season (and all the people say "Amen!"). There's no way else to slice it, it's been a brutal year. From Harvey in Texas, to Irma in Florida and the southeast, to Maria in Puerto Rico, this will be one for the record books. I don't necessarily believe in "we were due," but it had been 12 years since the last U.S. landfall of a major hurricane (if you don't count "non-tropical" Sandy). Here's a summation of the numbers:

Table showing how the 2017 Atlantic #hurricane season ranks historically. It will end up a top 10 season by most tropical cyclone metrics. pic.twitter.com/e5fb8cgwn2

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 28, 2017

17 named storms, ten hurricanes, six majors, and two category 5's. And a bunch of other records broken. Good riddance! (If you want to hear what The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore had to say about the season, check out the Carolina Weather Group episode that aired just last night, with yours truly on the panel!)

Preliminary storm tracks for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Click for larger view. (NHC)

3. So when will this warm weather end? Not for several more days! With a fairly tranquil weather pattern nationwide for the next few days, no major fronts are expected through the weekend. We'll see mild weather with highs in the 60s continuing into early next week as high pressure aloft dominates.

The GFS model for the jetstream level of the atmosphere, valid Monday morning, shows a ridge of high pressure over our region (the large "hill" in the eastern U.S.). However, the first signs of a significant pattern shift can be seen in the western U.S. where a large trough (the "dip" in the jet stream) can be found. (PivotalWx)

Precipitation forecast through Sunday evening. The beginning of the next system to affect our area shows up in the Northwest U.S. (NOAA)

As for weekend activities, the forecast is grand! Here's a planner for Saturday, which features the St. Jude Memphis Marathon, a Tiger football watch party at the Liberty Bowl, and Christmas parades among other things. You can find the official MWN Forecast here or in our app.

4. What brings the warm weather to an end and how cold does it get? If you looks above again at the jetstream forecast for Monday morning, you'll see a huge dip over the western U.S. As that shifts east, it "dips" even further south, allowing cold air from Canada to spill south into the eastern U.S. Early signs are that this pattern - dominated by an eastern U.S. trough and western U.S. ridge - could last right into the middle of December. There will be ebbs and flows of course, but much colder air will be found in the eastern U.S., including the Mid-South, in this pattern.

As the pattern shifts, watch for the potential for some heavy rain and thunderstorms near a front that moves through sometime between next Monday night and Tuesday night. A relief from the dry weather, but also the end of fall most likely. Below is what this morning's GFS (American) model ensemble said about temperatures for the next 2 weeks. Note that these are not exactly right, but give you a good idea of the trend.

The GFS model is run multiple times with slightly different parameters to create an "ensemble" of potential solutions. Above is the average high and low temperatures for the next 2 weeks from this ensemble. (WxBell) 

5. Finally, November 30 also brought to an end (if everything goes well) the "preliminary, non-operational" phase of GOES-16, our new awesome-sauce meteorological satellite that was launched just about one year ago. It's been in testing phase for much of this year and has provided dramatic and beautiful imagery from 22,500 miles up. For the next 3 weeks, its propulsion systems are pushing it a bit further east from its test location, where it will become fully operational in mid-December as GOES-East. This day will be nearly as monumental in the meteorological community as the day it was launched and the day it sent back its first images. For more on GOES-16 (formerly GOES-R) see this blog post.

By this time next year, its sister satellite (GOES-S/17) will likely be operational over the west coast as GOES-West. A new chapter in satellite meteorology is being written! Below was the parting image, in natural color, from GOES-16 this morning at 7:32am CST.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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A cold front that means business and an early look at Turkey Day

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings lots of activities across the area, not the least of which is a Memphis Tiger football game with conference championship implications at 11am Saturday, as well as the downtown Memphis Christmas tree lighting event and a Christmas event in Arlington later in the day. So what's this big cold front we've been heading about? Let's get into the details.

Friday Night

You have to know that gusty south wind and temperatures in the lower 70s in mid-November, like we have today, are typically followed by a dose of reality just around the corner. That is certainly the case this time, as a cold front is getting ready to barrel across the region on Saturday. Today is "prep day" with that south wind pushing higher dewpoints (aka, more moisture) into the Mid-South. The wind will pick up even further tonight as the front makes progress in our direction with southerly gusts that will exceed 30 mph and could approach 40 mph! That will keep temperatures mild overnight (in the 60s), though precipitation chances are very low.

Surface low pressure will be located in southern Kansas and heading towards the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday. Overnight into Saturday morning, the low combines with high pressure to our east to bring gusty southerly wind to the area. (PivotalWx)

Saturday

As low pressure in the Plains moves east-northeast across the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Saturday, a cold front will sweep across the Mid-South. Current ETA for Memphis is 1-2pm, but that could vary an hour either way.  Ahead of the front, the strong southerly wind will continue with temperatures rising to 70° by noon. If you're tailgating, it'll be short sleeve weather with tie-downs for your tents a MUST. In addition, a few scattered showers are possible in the morning but they should be brief as the cloud-level wind will be pushing them at nearly highway speeds (for those that don't speed...).

After lunchtime, and probably during the second half of the Tigers game, when Riley & Co. will be in the midst of raining touchdowns on SMU (Go Tigers!), the front will arrive at the speed of Tony Pollard's kickoff returns. You'll know when it hits, because it'll be marked by a sudden wind shift to the northwest, a brief period of potentially heavy rain, and possibly a rumble of thunder. The line of rain along the front looks to be narrow and fast-moving, so it may only last 10-15 minutes. Don the ponchos over the short-sleeve shirts, then be prepared to quickly add a sweatshirt layer once the rain ends! Once the quick-hitting rain ends, the wind turns cold and just as gusty (25-35 mph) and temperatures head down, tumbling quickly into the 50s.

The high-resolution NAM model from Friday morning shows scattered light showers Saturday morning (the beginning of the loop above) then a narrow line of heavy rain along the cold front by early afternoon. The latter half of the loop is Saturday afternoon into early evening and shows dry weather behind the front. (Tropical Tidbits)

The good news is that the rain threat ends once the front passes, mid to late afternoon and evening activities will be dry. Temperatures continue to fall into the upper 40s by tree lightning time downtown (5:30pm) and the blustery wind starts to let up, though will remain at 10-20 mph into the evening hours. If you have evening plans, think warm coats, not the shorts you had on in the morning!

As for a severe weather threat, the Storm Prediction Center currently has the metro on the edge of a "Marginal" (category 1 of 5) threat. There is meager instability ahead of the front and plenty of wind energy, so a brief wind gust to 60 mph is possible, though not likely, in the line that moves through along the front.

A Marginal Risk of a few severe wind gusts are predicted by the NWS for portions of the area in dark green. The thunderstorm threat, as well as severe threat, is very low (category 1 on the 5-point scale). (SPC)

The Tigers seemingly have been snake-bitten by weather events this year, but this event at least looks to be brief (outside of the sustained wind), so grab the poncho and #PackTheBowl for what promises to be a great football game! #StripeUp

The graph above shows temperature forecasts from several high-resolution models from tonight through Sunday. The black line is the model average. Note the very warm temps overnight, the large drop Sunday afternoon, and much cooler weather on Sunday, despite sunny skies. (NOAA)

Sunday and beyond

High pressure quickly builds in, making for a return to November-esque weather with highs generally in the 50s for Thanksgiving week and lows that could threaten freezing outside the city on Monday morning. A reinforcing shot of cool air arrives Tuesday night with freezing temperatures again possible Thanksgiving morning. Highs on Turkey Day will be cool - in the lower 50s most likely. Weather looks dry next week though, as any flies in the ointment that might bring precipitation stay well to our south in the Gulf.

Stay up to date with the latest conditions and forecast, as well as monitoring our Twitter and radar feeds, via the MWN mobile app. We appreciate your support of MWN in this small way, which pays big dividends for you!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder