Thursday, February 26, 2009

Update on severe weather... and possible snow?

The atmosphere, and the computer models, are still coming into line on a possible severe weather scenario for early Friday morning. This is an update to my post from yesterday.

The Mid-South remains under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for late tonight and Friday morning. It appears the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be along the front itself, which will pass through the metro area sometime between 3-9am, slowing significantly as it nears the area and then stalling out over north Mississippi on Friday. The most likely forms of severe weather will be damaging wind gusts along a squall line and possibly large hail. After midnight tonight, isolated cells could form ahead of the main line, which could also become severe in the moisture-laden and windy atmosphere ahead of the front. Another ugly rush-hour could be upon us for Friday morning...
Afte frontal passage, wind will shift to the north, but with the front in close proximity, any impulses along the front will bring more showers, which will be fairly likely Friday, but tapering overnight Saturday.

The focus then shifts to Saturday. The front will still be positioned just to our south and a fairly potent upper-level low pressure system will dive into the Mid-South from the northwest. This system will be accompanied by cold air at the surface and aloft, so while scattered showers are expected ahead of the low Saturday morning and early afternoon, as the low gets closer Saturday afternoon and evening, rain showers could conceivably chance to light snow. Computer models are still not exactly in agreement on this scenario, so it bears watching. At worst, it appears a dusting of snow is possible.

No comments: