Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Possible severe weather tonight

After a cold start and a few reports of very light sleet around the area this morning (including at Memphis Int'l), temperatures have risen across the metro area as rain showers move through. I expect a break from this showery activity this afternoon before the main event begins tonight.

As low pressure works it's way across the Plains, a warm front will move through the Mid-South and the stage will be set for a rapid increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Some of these storms could touch severe limits, mainly in the form of large hail and a brief damaging wind gust, across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has the same idea and has placed the Mid-South under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather overnight.

The associated cold front will move through by mid-morning tomorrow with a decrease in cloud cover following. However, with the warm front passing through tonight, I expect temps to continue to rise overnight, probably up to around 60 by daybreak, so look for a high tomorrow in the mid 60s before temps begin falling in the afternoon. It will also be very windy with this system with gusts to 30+ mph overnight and early tomorrow and well into the 20s throughout the day Wednesday.

Dry weather will persist under high pressure through Friday before the next system drops swiftly into the area on northwest flow aloft. We'll talk more about this one later, but it bears watching for the potential for winter weather...

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