Weather 102: Why is nighttime thunder so loud?

MWN friend Kristen Boyden asked a great question: "Why were Tuesday night's storms so loud?"

The overnight storms (and this is pretty common for nighttime storms and some during the day as well) were what we call "elevated thunderstorms." Basically, we had a very strong temperature inversion in place, in which the temperature rises with height rather than cooling. It was about 45° F at the surface during last night's storms, but 57° F at just 4,000 feet up! That inversion creates a stable layer in the atmosphere at the low levels and basically acts like a lid at 4,000 feet above us.

An atmospheric sounding (temperature/humidity profile) of the airmass over Memphis Tuesday night shows temperature (red line) increasing as you go up into the atmosphere, an inversion. That inversion "caps" the atmosphere below, trapping the sound of the thunder in the lowest few thousand feet. (NOAA/AMDAR)

When lightning discharges under that lid, the sound of the thunder is trapped close to the ground. Since the sound can't escape UP ↑, it bounces around between the ground and the stable layer above (the lid), amplifying the noise. It's like setting off firecrackers in grandma's pressure cooker!

Elevated thunderstorms occur when warm air overrides cooler air near the surface, creating a temperature inversion, and thus a stable layer of air in the low levels, above which convection occurs. (Graphic courtesy @wxbrad)

In addition, general daytime noise is reduced at night, so the thunder seems louder because the ambient noise level is quieter. (Like when your baby lets out a cry in the doctor's waiting room vs. in a house full of other kids!) I frequently say that thunder at night is often louder than during the day, but in fact, ELEVATED thunderstorms are truly the cause for the noise level. They just happen to occur more often at night! It doesn't mean they are "more severe" or even more damaging. They're just louder.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Heat & drought, storms, then more heat

June was hot - the seventh hottest on record in Memphis. July is continuing that trend. In fact, as of 8am this morning, the official reporting station at Memphis International Airport had not dropped below 80° in 72 hours and that streak will continue today and likely until early Saturday morning when the forecast low is 79°.

Overall, it's also been dry, though some places have received the benefit of scattered thunderstorms dropping heavy rain in localized areas over the past month. Areas just to our south and across the interior southeast are dealing with very dry conditions - drought in many cases. North Mississippi, including the southern metro, is on the edge of that drought area.

Precipitation anomaly (departure from normal) over the past 90 days shows large areas of the southeast U.S. with a deficit of multiple inches of rain through the spring and early summer. Graphic courtesy WxBell.

Short-term drought (appearing in the last 6 months) is present throughout the interior southeast with greatest effects in northern GA/AL and the southern Appalachians. A close-up view of MS is shown below, indicating dryness into the southern metro (Tate, Tunica, and Marshall Co's). Graphics courtesy US Drought Monitor.

As we head into the weekend, some much-needed rain is expected, though we are hopeful that severe weather does not accompany it. A weak cold front will be located just north of the metro with the possibility of storm systems riding along the front through the area. They will feed on the very unstable air that is in place south of the front, driven by the heat and humidity. The good news, I suppose, is that increased cloud cover and rain in the area should hold temperatures down just a bit this weekend.

A weak cold front will stall over the Mid-South this weekend, becoming a focus for possible convective complexes with a chance of strong storms and heavy rain.

If a storm complex or two (called MCC's, or mesoscale convective complexes) forms, they tend to continue through the night, not ending when the sun goes down. This scenario is very unpredictable beyond about 12-24 hours, thus nailing down timing of potential storms this weekend is difficult.

The atmospheric pattern that favors these complexes will be partially in place however, with a general northwest to southeast flow at the mid-levels (what we call "northwest flow"), a weakness in the mid-level pressure pattern developing over the area, shortwave troughs (or upper air disturbances) moving near the region, and plenty of heat and moisture to feed the storms.

The GFS model of pressure at the 500mb (18,000') level at 7pm Saturday shows wind flow "ridging" over high pressure over NM with wind flow from northwest to southeast across the Mid-South. This is what is referred to as "northwest flow" and is a favorable pattern in the summertime for convective complexes to follow that wind flow. Graphic courtesy Pivotal Weather.

The first of these storm clusters or complexes appears to skirt the northern metro early this evening according to this morning's high-resolution short term models. Thus, for what I think is the third time this week, areas just to our north are under a risk of severe weather, as forecast by the Storm Prediction Center. As of 2pm, the risk is in category 2 of 5, or Slight Risk, with the main period to monitor being late afternoon to early evening. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging wind. Northeast AR and northwest TN have the best chance of storms with the tail end of the storms possibly reaching as far south as I-40 in the metro.

Heading into the weekend, we'll simply advise that you keep a close eye on the forecast and our social media feeds as severe weather cannot be ruled out Saturday, Sunday or Monday while the front hangs over the area. Again, timing of storm complexes, or just pop-up storms, is nearly impossible to pinpoint right now. A few storms could get strong enough this weekend to produce areas of damaging wind or large hail, as well as very heavy rain.

The one time period that has a little higher confidence level on is overnight Saturday night into early Sunday. Multiple models have depicted storms developing during that period. We're hopeful that they hold off until after Saturday evening outdoor activities have wound down, including the Levitt Shell ticketed event featuring Sharon Jones and the Memphis Redbirds Christmas in July evening with baseball, fireworks, and Santa (I wouldn't want to be the one in the Santa suit outside in July)!

By early next week, upper level ridging (high pressure) begins building back into the region, pushing the thunderstorm threat back to our north and allowing mid-summer heat to rebuild with highs back in the mid 90s and heat indices above 100. The long-range outlook for the third week of July is predicted to have a high likelihood of more "above normal" temperatures. Hang in there and stay cool!

The week 2 outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates a 70% chance of temperatures remaining above normal. In other words, a respite from the summer heat doesn't appear to be in the offing during this period!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Casting a shadow - from Bartlett, TN to Alabama!

In the middle of mowing on a sweltering evening in north Bartlett last night, I was keeping a close eye just to the south as clouds began to gather. Having put a 10% chance of evening rain in the forecast a couple of hours earlier, I knew a shower was possible but really didn't expect much. Then this happened...

It was the only storm for over 125 miles (I guess a 10% rain chance was about right!).

Since it didn't budge, despite seemingly showing a slow northward drift initially, rainfall rates were impressive, owing to the high moisture content of the atmosphere with dewpoints near 70.

Though it lasted only about an hour, the cool part of this storm was not what happened under it, but what people saw from a distance, since it was isolated in nature.

First, looking south from Tipton County as it developed, courtesy of Mark Rapp:

And then from DeSoto County, looking north at a fully-developed storm, courtesy of "The Weather Mayor," Sam Rikard:

And up close, showing the rain shaft from the storm, courtesy of a different Sam Rikard (not a weather mayor):

And finally, from Winchester Road in southeast Shelby County, mad props to the king of iPhone photography, Joey Sulipeck, on this stunner:

Then the pictures started coming in not of the storm itself, but what the combination of an isolated, TALL storm and the setting sun produced! A stunning sky shadow that was visible on the east side of the storm (as the sun set behind it in the west).  First this one from Elizabeth Bouchoc taken at Briarcrest Christian School:

And this one from Collierville, taken by Kim Barron:

Then, perhaps one of the coolest atmospheric phenomena I've seen in some time, the same shadow showed up in CENTRAL ALABAMA! Followers of long-time Birmingham meteorologist James Spann sent pics like this:

He put a few pictures, including the one above, in a blog and included the graphic below. Though a bit difficult to make out due to low contrast, it shows the path the shadow would cast at sunset based on the angle of the sun, overlaid on a satellite image showing the storm cloud over Bartlett.

I put the coordinates in a solar calculator to verify the sun angle James came up with and, sure enough, because of the low sun angle (shown in yellow on the map below), the isolated nature of the storm, and it's height, a shadow was cast about 200 miles "downstream!"

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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From snow to storms - spring returns to the Mid-South

Snow and 40+ degrees??

Wasn't yesterday's snow weird?? I drove through a pretty steady graupel shower around 2:45 yesterday afternoon in Bartlett with temps in the low 40s. Some of you reported sleet or snow shaped like "round balls" yesterday - that was graupel, or "dippin dots" as we are known to call it. The reason for this phenomena with temps above 40 was because the air quickly dropped below freezing by about 1000-1500' up. Thus precip fell as snow with partial melting in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, forming the unique precip type that mixed with sprinkles and snowflakes.

Graupel in Oxford, MS at about 3:30 Saturday. Photo courtesy @larryh921on Twitter.

But now that that is over, it's time to welcome spring back to the Mid-South! And we'll welcome it back, less than 36 hours later, with thunderstorms.

The overall pattern

You will probably be familiar with the sound of thunder by week's end, as it looks like there may be multiple rounds of thunderstorms. The overall pattern will put us in the "warm sector" with low pressure in the Plains and southerly flow across the region for much of the week, starting Tuesday. Impulses in the atmosphere could spark a few rounds of storms, mainly Wednesday through Friday, before a decent cold front finally moves through right before we head into Easter weekend, clearing out in time for a pretty decent weekend it appears.

The pattern this week will mean a few things: 1) much warmer air this week - we're talking lots of 70s! 2) southerly wind that brings more humidity (you probably won't need the lotion as much this week), and 3) those scattered t'storms, a few of which could at times be strong. It's too early to time out these impulses that might bring a few strong storms, but this is just an early heads up.

Tonight's thunderstorms

As for the first round that starts off the week, that happens tonight. A cold front will move through the area just after midnight, which will prompt storms to form, likely right over the metro. The Memphis metro is in a MARGINAL risk of severe storms, or category 1 out of 5. The marginal risk is driven by a 5% probability of hail larger than 1" within 25 miles of any point in the metro. Given that the probability of severe hail within 25 miles of the a point in the metro on April 1st is roughly 1%, this means that our risk of severe hail is about 5 times normal for this time of year.

A reminder of the "new" severe weather outlook classification system. We have a Marginal Risk of hail storms tonight.

A Marginal Risk of severe storms exists ahead of a cold front tonight from the Mid-South (star) to north TX.

The aforementioned cold front that arrives overnight won't run into sufficient warm, moist Gulf air until it gets pretty close to the metro, as most of the ingredients for storms (moisture, instability, and some wind shear) will exist along and south of the I-40 corridor. Thus, the front may be dry, or perhaps just bring a few showers, as it approaches our area. Once it gets close, I expect scattered storms to fire with the necessary lift that the front provides. The most likely area to see storms capable of producing hail will be in north MS, though a few can't be ruled out north of the TN/MS state line. The best timing for storms appears to be between 10pm-4am, though by 1am or so, the threat exits west TN and Crittenden Co. and is confined to north MS.

Instability, a necessary ingredient for storms, is measured here by CAPE, which will be present at 10pm basically along and south of I-40. North MS and southern AR has the highest available energy to fuel storms. With no CAPE to our north, there is little chance of thunderstorms as the front approaches, until it gets to the metro. Graphic courtesy WxBell.

Simulated radar from the HRRR high-res model valid at midnight, showing a broken line of storms from central AR along the TN/MS state line. The cold front will be where the lighter rain (greens) are just to our north. Graphic courtesy WxBell.

This week

Once the front clears the area, clouds depart with it and tomorrow looks to be a perfectly beautiful spring day - sunny and 70! Tuesday may also stay mostly dry, and if it does, we'll look for highs to get into the mid 70s. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, Gulf moisture-laden air is back in place and warm temps will combine with passing impulses to bring the possibility of scattered storms each day until another front moves through late week. For those looking ahead to Easter Sunday, conditions at this time appear dry and cool, but not cold like this morning. Being a week out, that could surely change. Stay tuned!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Temperature roller coaster in town for a few days with thunder at its apex!

Miss the Zippin' Pippin? Well a roller coaster of another sort will be visiting Memphis over the next day or two, one featuring some wild swings in temperatures as a strong storm system approaches the area. Unfortunately, it also will be bringing us high chances of rain and even some thunder that will dampen any outdoor plans for the first part of the weekend.

While its been a drizzly and foggy afternoon across the metro much of the day, as temperatures hovered in the lower to mid 40s, a change can be expected as a warm front currently along the Gulf Coast moves closer to the region late tonight. Milder air will begin to take over, leading to temperatures that will actually rise through the overnight into the 50s. Though drizzle will taper initially, a good chance of showers will develop as the night progresses, and a rumble or two of thunder can't be ruled out, especially toward morning.

SPC Outlook for Saturday. While the metro is within the "Marginal Risk" category for severe storms, the threat locally appears fairly limited.

For Saturday, plan for a soaker. Rain is likely much of the day, and the rain could be heavy at times. As a low pressure area strengthens and moves just northwest of the region, southerly wind will also increase, surging temperatures into the mid 60s. A cold front across Arkansas will begin moving into the region by afternoon, leading to even more rain and thunderstorms.

With the mild air in place and some strong wind dynamics aloft, the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring parts of the Mid-South for a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) of a few strong storms. At this time, for the Memphis metro, the amount of instability or energy to drive storms to severe levels appears quite limited, so we do not anticipate much more than a general risk of thunder. If any stronger storm were to develop, gusty wind would be the primary threat. The main threat of severe weather should be across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama where the SPC is highlighting a Slight Risk (cat 2 of 5) zone. Through Saturday night, heavy rainfall totals around 1.0-1.5" inches will be common in the metro, though flooding is not a significant threat with this system.

By later Saturday night, as the cold front sweeps past the metro, colder air will once again filter back into the region. Temperatures by Sunday morning should be near 40, and they may only fall during the day Sunday into the 30s as strong northwesterly wind takes over.

A temperature roller coaster is forecast over the next week with a downhill plunge from Saturday night to Monday, a brief climb on Tuesday, then another plunge into the teens by Thurday morning. Shown above, the parallel GFS model courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Looking a bit further out, an even colder period looks to develop by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as a strong Arctic high pressure moves out of Canada, bringing some biting cold air with it. Temperatures will reach their coldest levels of the winter season so far, especially Thursday morning, with teens likely across the region. Highs may struggle to reach the freezing mark both Wednesday and Thursday.

Precipitation is not expected in this pattern, so winter weather should not be a concern. Nevertheless, it may be a good idea to make some early preparations for a period of very cold temperatures later next week, and of course continue to follow MemphisWeather.Net as we will be updating that potential and the forecast temperatures as new model guidance comes in.


Kevin Terry
MemphisWeather.Net

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Rain Chances, Cool Temps, and a Peek at the BBQ Fest Forecast

We've gotten a taste of early summer this past weekend with increased humidity, daytime temps in the 80s, and warm overnight lows. That all changes though as a cold front moves towards the region.

A look at surface temperatures this morning shows a clear boundary through the central US separating the warm and muggy conditions we have been experiencing here and the much cooler and drier conditions across parts of the Plains. This temperature gradient is associated with a potent cold front for this time of year. As a result we can expect a good amount of rain as it approaches as well as near record low temperatures for this time of year (into the 40's in many areas!). We'll also take an early look at the BBQ Fest weekend forecast. Lets get into some specifics as to what you can expect in the Mid-South this week.

Surface temps at 11am CDT showing a cold airmass across the Plains and west and a very warm one in the east.

Above you can see the potency of the aforementioned cold front. There is a very sharp gradient of surface temperatures where it quickly goes from 70 degrees to the mid 40's over a short distance. This front will not be quite as strong by the time it arrives here on Wednesday but it will still be rather significant for a mid-May storm system. Another factor worth mentioning is that once the front nears the area, it will have some trouble trying to continue moving through as the upper level wind parallels the front and low pressure forms on it just to our east. As a result, rainfall associated with the front could train over our area, which could lead to higher rain totals.

GFS Total Precipitation through Thursday at 1 AM

Precipitation totals from one particular model (not a forecast) show rain totals right around 1 inch in the Memphis metro. There's a sharp gradient between values closer to 2 inches northwest of our area. We will have to keep an eye on where the heaviest precipitation sets up, as this area will feature the highest potential for flash flooding. Locations west of the MS River (including Crittenden Co in the metro) are already under a Flash Flood Watch due to this potential. Right now it looks like this area will stay to our west but we will be sure to let you know if that changes.

Storm Prediction Center 3-day Outlook shows the slight risk of severe weather off to our east

Another factor that is surely on the minds of our readers is the threat of severe weather. Thankfully chances for severe weather look quite low due to the system weakening as it approaches the area. In fact, chances for scattered non-severe thunderstorms appear highest late tonight and tomorrow. By Wednesday, chances for rainfall will be the highest, but overall expect this activity to be weaker in nature due to less available heat for the storms to use as energy and low pressure that will stay east of the metro, putting us in the "cool sector" of the system. As you can see from the day 3 severe weather outlook above, the higher chances for severe weather are to our east where more energy from daytime heating on Wednesday should be present, as well as it's position in the warm sector of the developing low. Activity should wrap up Wednesday night, ushering in cooler temperatures for the end of the work week.

GFS model Minimum Surface Temperatures Thursday morning

Thursday morning looks to be the coolest of the week with temperatures in the upper 40's (over 10 degrees below normal and nearing the record low for the date!). High temperatures will also likely remain in the 60's on Wednesday and Thursday due to the much cooler air mass and rain on Wednesday. By Friday we should see highs return to the 70's.

A brief note on BBQ Fest this weekend: Temperatures look great with highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's. However, an upper-level disturbance looks to come through the area this weekend which could bring small rain chances starting Friday afternoon. Any activity appears to be scattered and light at this time. Stay tuned to us for updates and check our forecast daily on the web or via our apps!

William Churchill
MWN Social Media Intern

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More rain and storms in time for the weekend

We've had a fairly extended period of dry weather following deluges and severe storms early last week. A few cool days were quickly pushed aside by warm high pressure with highs in the mid 80s for several days now, despite pleasant humidity levels that made mornings and evenings comfortable. As we head towards the weekend, it appears the dry weather comes to an end with rain and thunderstorm chances starting Thursday night.

Severe weather is expected in the Plains today and Thursday and that will push east towards the Mid-South Thursday night and Friday. Fortunately, though, the severe weather threat will be lower here than to our west as the front responsible for the strong storms weakens a bit and stalls out without ever making it through the region. However, we'll still see showers and some storms move into the region overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, which is our best chance of rain the next several days. An enhanced risk of severe storms stays just west of the metro on Friday, though a few strong storms are possible and certainly heavy rain and lightning will be likely in the area.

An enhanced risk of severe weather exists west of the MS River on Friday. Above, the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point, which is at 15% for most of AR.

After the main round of precipitation ends sometime Friday morning, with the front loitering to our west, we could  still see scattered showers or a few thunderstorms the rest of the day Friday into the evening. Mother's Day weekend appears to hold "unorganized" rain chances at this point. Some areas will stay dry and others will see intermittent showers. We don't suggest cancelling any outdoor plans for the weekend just yet, but it would be prudent to have a rain plan in case an unforeseen shower pops up overhead. Consult later forecasts and social media posts from MWN in case more organized activity appears on the radar. Outside of showers, it will remain warm and muggy this weekend with highs in the lower half of the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Projected rainfall totals from tonight through next Wednesday, provided by NOAA. The Memphis metro could see up to 3-4" of rain when including Thursday night/Friday, any weekend rain, and the system early next week.

One last round of rain looks to move through early next week, likely Monday night or Tuesday as a cold front finally pushes through the region. For the next week, rainfall totals of 2-4" are expected across the region. Behind the cold front next week, cooler weather (more seasonal, not cold) will build into the region under dry high pressure for the middle of next week. Full details for the week ahead can be found in the MWN Forecast and any hazardous weather in the coming three days can always be found in the MWN Significant Weather Outlook.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Warmer weather means spring storms and a chance of severe weather

Following freezing temps metro-wide this morning, nothing near that cold is in the extended forecast that goes into early April. Thus we will assume that winter is finally retreating!  Even "well below normal" temperatures at this point will have a hard time reaching 32 degrees assuming we don't approach it in the next week. So, we bid adieu to one of the coldest winters in some time and turn our attention to the weather spring brings - thunderstorms.  And we won't wait long!

A strong cold front and low pressure system will move from the Plains into the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours, setting the stage for thunderstorms in the metro and even the possibility of severe weather across the Plains and into the western portions of the Mississippi Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening.  In fact, we'll feel the effects of the potency of this system tomorrow in the form of  southerly wind that gusts up to 30-35 mph.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire region.  The Mid-South sits just east of a slight risk for severe weather as the storms will likely be in a weakening state as they move through our area Thursday night, owing to decreasing instability as the sun sets and better atmospheric dynamics as the low goes well to our north.  However, rain and thunder are likely beginning Friday afternoon and into the night (especially before midnight).

A Slight Risk of severe weather exists to our west Thursday and Thursday night. Storms will be weakening as they approach the metro Thursday night.

Expected rainfall between 7pm Thursday and 1am Friday from the NAM computer model. A half inch or so or rain is a reasonable expectation.

Much of Friday should be mainly dry as the cold front sags across the region and upper-level support moves away. However, low pressure will develop to our west along the front and move just south of the Mid-South on Friday night. This will bring another round of likely showers and thunderstorms, mainly after dark and into the wee hours Saturday morning.  The Mid-South is currently under a Slight Risk of severe weather for this time period with the main threat being large hail. While the chance of severe weather is possible, we feel this situation is also borderline, especially with the surface low tracking south of the region. It's something to keep an eye on though.  Unfortunately, the timing couldn't be worse for a sold out exhibition game between the Memphis Redbirds and St. Louis Cardinals at AutoZone Park Friday night!

A Slight Risk of severe weather exists for the Mid-South on Friday night. Hail would be the primary threat and the threat area will be updated several times prior to Friday evening.

Forecast instability from the NAM computer model valid Friday evening at 10pm.  These values are plenty sufficient for thunderstorms across the area.

Forecast rainfall amounts overnight Friday night from the NAM model.  Another half inch of rain is possible on top of Thursday night's rain.

Storms should be out of the area by sunrise Saturday and a dry and not unpleasant weekend is in store with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Next week looks mild overall with 70s likely multiple days and only a slight chance of rain Monday then better chances by mid-week as another springtime weather system approaches. You can find the complete MWN Forecast here or in our mobile apps.

Lastly, readers of this blog are getting the first look at a "draft" version of a new product MWN is developing that will help our readers and followers know when hazardous weather is possible, what the chances are, and how severe the impacts potentially could be. For now, we're calling it our "Memphis Metro Significant Weather Outlook" and today's outlook is posted below. We would LOVE your feedback! It is in testing and we're open to any and all suggestions.  You can drop your comments to us on social media or comment on this blog. We promise to consider all suggestions. This is likely NOT the final way we'll present this outlook, but the one below IS valid for the next 3 days.

Thanks for your input and for reading the blog! We're excited at the prospects of not having to talk about winter weather on this blog again for many months!

--Erik Proseus, MWN Meteorologist

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Stormy night ahead, but severe weather not expected

Quick post on the likelihood of storms tonight. A cold front will approach the region and generate an area of thunderstorms that will move out of central TX across southern AR/northern LA and into MS overnight. Meanwhile, additional showers and t'storms are likely further north ahead of the front as well.

Amongst all of this activity, we are left with a high likelihood of rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Most of the rain will fall after dark, with the heaviest activity after midnight.  Some heavy rain is likely and a strong wind gust is possible, though SPC (and we agree) thinks that any severe weather should stay to our southwest.  Just don't be surprised if thunder wakes you (or your pet) up tonight!

A Slight Risk of severe weather is posted for areas SW of the metro as a cold front approaches

Showers and t'storms will continue to be possible throughout the day Friday, though the heaviest rain and most concentrated activity should move out by mid-morning. Don't make a lot of outdoor plans that are weather-sensitive on Friday however! We'll keep you apprised via our social platforms, listed below.

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Another Slight Risk of severe weather for Saturday football

As college fans celebrate the arrival of one of the most coveted days of the year - the first Saturday of the college football season - another round of severe weather may be brewing on the horizon. There are at least three games of keen Mid-South interest that could be affected by local weather, so we're putting together this brief blog update as a heads-up.

The first game is in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium pitting the Memphis Tigers against UT-Martin; the second is in "The Grove" in Oxford, MS, featuring Ole Miss and Central Arkansas.  The games each kickoff at 6pm. The game of chief concern weather-wise will be the Memphis/UT-Martin match-up.

First, a Slight Risk of severe weather has been expanded to include the Memphis metropolitan area (see updated map below).  As the remnants of Isaac move east across Missouri towards St. Louis by this evening, dry air on it's south side has brought plenty of breaks in the clouds over the Mid-South and allowing daytime heating to raise the instability in the atmosphere.  As a lobe of energy rotates around the low in Missouri, it will encounter this unstable airmass and thunderstorms are expected to erupt this afternoon over Arkansas.

Most models are now showing a northeast-southwest line of convection firing over central AR by mid-afternoon and pushing southeast towards the metro.  One high-resolution model's scenario (the RAP model) plays out in the sequence of images below.  As you can see, the line is just northwest of the city of Memphis by 8pm and moves over the city before 11pm.  Like last night, the storms bring the possibility of strong to severe wind (40-60 mph), dangerous lightning, and certainly very heavy rain.

Given that most college football games are about 3 hours long, the Memphis game will probably wrap up around 9pm.  This could be a very close call!  For those attending the game in Oxford, I believe you will get your contest in without too much of a problem.  If the line happens to arrive an hour or two early in Memphis, the tail end of the Ole Miss game could be threatened.  I don't suspect that will happen.

For those going to the Liberty Bowl: umbrellas are NOT allowed. Ponchos are, and so is good common sense. It was just less than a month ago that a spectator at a NASCAR race at Pocono, PA was killed by lightning when shelter (his vehicle) was right next to him.  Lightning and high wind are dangerous!  The line also brings the small possibility of an isolated tornado.  Please use common sense and heed any and all warnings provided by local media and stadium officials.  With any luck, the storms will hold off until the stadium is empty. If storms are imminent after the game, get to your vehicle and take shelter.  There's no sense in someone dying because they lacked common sense.  (It sounds harsh, but it is reality.)

MemphisWeather.net will be nowcasting any and all weather threats throughout the day and evening. Follow us on Facebook and/or Twitter, as well as via our mobile website (http://m.memphisweather.net) or our mobile apps (iPhone / Android).  If you activate StormWatch+ on our app, you can even put your seat in the stadium as one of the alert locations using GPS.  You'll receive push notifications if a watch or warning is issued for your seat!  How's that for personalized service?

And by all means, if the person you're sitting next to at the game asks about the cool (MemphisWeather.net) app you're looking at for weather information (or even if they don't), introduce them to us! We'd love to provide them the same world-class service you get! :-)

Have fun, stay safe, and be smart!  And GO TIGERS!!  (yes, I'm a Memphis alum...)





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