Arctic high brings prolonged sub-freezing conditions to the Mid-South

By now, most are aware that bitterly cold Arctic air will encompass the region for the latter half of the week thanks to a massive ridge of high pressure building into the region from western Canada. This will be the coldest air Memphis has experienced since last January, which featured two Arctic blasts of this magnitude - one about this time of the month that produced a low of 8 degrees, and another later in the month with a low of 9 (both recorded at Memphis International).

Wednesday night at midnight - cold high pressure dominates the center of the country with Arctic air all the way to the Gulf coast. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Brutal cold temperatures and wind chills

Lows only drop into the mid 20s tonight as clouds increase due to an upper-level disturbance that fronts the Arctic air. However brisk northerly wind on Wednesday will put a halt to any daytime warming, even as skies clear by mid-day, resulting in temperatures slowly falling during the afternoon. A few flurries are also possible across the area during the morning hours but should have little to no impact.

Wednesday 6pm departure from normal temperatures per the GFS model. We'll be nearly 20 degrees below normal with portions of the midwest more than 30 degrees below normal. Notice the well above normal temps west of the Continental Divide. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Thursday morning will bring the coldest temperature readings of the period across the central U.S., including the Mid-South. Not only will there be very cold temperatures, but wind that produces dangerous wind chill readings. In the metro, I expect single digit wind chills by Wednesday evening and even some negative single digit wind chills (0 to -5) early Thursday morning as lows drop into the upper single digits in the city and suburbs and possibly near 5 in outlying areas. A Wind Chill Advisory is possible for the area Wednesday night.

GFS modeled wind chills for Wednesday evening. The purple to blue-green transition represents will chills of 0. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Thursday morning low temperatures from the GFS model. Red to purple transition marks the 10 degree line. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Thursday 6am departure from normal temperatures per the GFS model. We'll be more than 20 degrees below normal. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell Analytics

Temperatures will remain below freezing on Thursday with highs in the upper 20s, though it won't be as cold Thursday night due to wind becoming southerly. Friday morning's lows will also be in the 20s. Finally, by Friday afternoon, we should see temperatures make it back above freezing for a few hours with highs in the mid 30s - ending a streak of 60+ hours of sub-freezing temperatures.

Near-record high pressure

In addition to the extremely cold temperatures, the strength of the high pressure system itself (as measured by sea level pressure readings) will get close to setting all-time readings as well (the highest high?). For Memphis, our all-time highest pressure reading is 30.96", or 1048 mb, set (coincidentally enough) 91 years ago yesterday (January 5, 1924). This week's high will weaken a bit as it builds south from the northern plains towards the Mid-South, but models are still forecasting a maximum pressure reading Wednesday night in Memphis near 1044 mb, just shy of our all-time record.

Surface weather map for January 5, 1924 when pressure readings set their all-time high in Memphis at 30.96". Map courtesy Joe Lauria, FOX4-TV in Kansas City.

Preparation

The brutal cold temperatures are worthy of preparation on the part of Mid-Southerners as single digit temperatures don't happen often here. We preach the "4 P's" of cold weather planning: people, pets, pipes, and plants. Make sure all are accounted for.

• Take care of any loved ones or friends who, for whatever reason, are susceptible to very cold temperatures. Bundle up the kids, drive them to the bus stop, and of course use your own warm weather gear - gloves, scarves, etc. Yes, it'll be that cold.
• Bring your pets in or SAFELY provide them a warm space wherever they stay. Frozen bowls of water and food are not appreciated by your furry friends. 
• Cover outdoor pipes and spigots and wrap interior pipes and/or leave water dripping in faucets on exterior walls (this is mainly for Wednesday night as we'll remain in the 20s tonight). 
• Finally, any plants that are near cold windows should be relocated. At this point, there are probably few outdoor plants that are not cold tolerant left standing!

We'll be monitoring conditions and providing updates on social media the next few days. In addition, we'll be carefully watching the next precipitation maker expected Sunday and/or Monday as cold air will be slow to retreat. Models are all over the board, but we have included a chance of wintry precipitation in our forecast for now with more fine-tuning to come.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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First fall freeze on tap this weekend, maybe the second as well

As promised, a big time chill is on deck, and is slated to move in behind tonight's cold front. The only good news is that it won't last long, but the magnitude of the cold will be quite a shock after a couple of 70 degree days and last weekend's 80s.

We'll first feel the effects of the front tomorrow during the day. Despite temperatures only falling to 50 overnight, a brisk north wind will pick up by mid-morning under cold air advection stratus clouds, gusting at times to near 30 mph during the day. Coupled with the clouds (which depart by late afternoon), temperatures will remain in the 50s all day. It could be our coldest high temperature since April.

For trick-or-treating, Tiger football, and Friday Night Lights, "layer up" will be the action plan as temperatures fall through the 40s in the evening with wind chills near 40. Doesn't sound bad until you get out and walk a few blocks with Elsa, who will discover she isn't as prepared for Frozen as the real princess! By dawn, temperatures will reach the freezing mark for nearly everyone in the metro with wind chills early Saturday morning in the 20s. A Freeze Watch  Warning (as of early Fri AM) is in effect and will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning tomorrow. (The average date of first freeze at Memphis International Airport is November 12, while it is November 5 at the Agricenter, which is representative of the suburbs.)

Overnight lows Friday night will be below freezing across a huge portion of the eastern U.S.

Saturday will be downright cold for November 1. Though it won't set a cool record, temps in the 40s nearly all afternoon (the high will be just above 50) with a north wind at 10-15 mph will feel more like mid-December than the day after Halloween. Sunny skies will be little comfort. Saturday night will again see temperatures plummet to near freezing. The is a little more uncertainty with regard to reaching 32 in the city, but with calm wind, most areas outside the city will fall to freezing and outlying areas have the potential for upper 20s early Sunday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for early Sunday morning.

Another very cold night Saturday night with low temperatures Sunday morning shown above.

Temperatures start to moderate Sunday with highs nearing 60.  Another 10 degrees of warmth can be expected on Monday as we return to a more normal pattern.

If you have outdoor plants or other vegetation that could succumb to frost or a freeze, plan to have them covered Friday and Saturday nights, especially if they are not within a couple of feet of a heated structure like a home. There is not a lot of concern over water or pipes freezing as the duration of freezing temperatures will be a couple of hours or less. Also, bring in your outdoor pets or provide a warm spot for them each night. Finally, keep space heaters away from any flammable items, such as drapes or upholstery that could cause a fire.

Now to get back to inciting panic...


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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On a cold start to the year, average last freeze dates, and weekend rain

We introduced the MWN Lightning Round about a week ago to provide small bites of weather info that we think would interest our readers.  Today's edition focuses on just how cold it's been so far this year, when (typically) the coldest of the air is behind us, and a quick look ahead at an unsettled weekend.

A cold start to 2014

According to the National Weather Service in Memphis (Web, Facebook, Twitter), 2014 is in the Top 10 for coldest starts to a year since 1900.  January averaged just over 5 degrees below normal and February averaged 4.4 degrees below normal, but the first couple of weeks of March have continued the trend, averaging nearly 6 degrees below normal through yesterday.  It's no surprise then that we're moving into the ranks of the coldest years on record, but I didn't realize that it was Top 10 worthy!  Here's the official word from the NWS:

Last freeze dates

Also according to the NWS, we're fast approaching our usual "last freeze date" - or the date that (on average) we see our last 32 degree reading of the spring.  For Memphis, that date is March 19 (and according to the MWN Forecast, we may get close to freezing again on Monday/St. Patty's Day, so that is not unusual).  Though the climate record is not nearly as long, the Agricenter's average last freeze is March 28, so folks in outlying areas especially still have another couple of weeks when a freeze is not at all unusual.  Spring cold fronts often bring a shot of cold, dry Canadian air that can drop temperatures to 32.  The good thing about cold weather in March is that it typically doesn't last long.

Weekend weather

As a perfect segue from the cold weather talk, this weekend's rainy but mild weather will be followed by a brief cold spell. As an example of the typically-brief cold spells discussed above, the low Monday morning will be near freezing, but by Tuesday afternoon we'll be well into the 60s again!  Until then, though, we'll be dealing with a series of disturbances/low pressure systems that will track through the region.  While temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are expected this afternoon and tomorrow, rain (some of it occasionally heavy) will move over late Saturday into Sunday morning.

It appears we may get "dry-slotted" for part of Sunday as the drier area around the low moves overhead, but wrap-around precip will follow Sunday evening and overnight as strong northerly wind picks up and temperatures fall.  We expect all precipitation to be gone by the time the coldest air arrives early Monday morning, but Sunday night could be cool and wet, and definitely breezy!  Highs Sunday will be near 60, but could begin falling on that strong north wind by afternoon.  If you have weekend outdoor plans, get them done on Saturday morning or early afternoon when rain chances are lowest. Again, check out the MWN Forecast for details on this weekend's forecast.

Multi-model average of temperatures through Monday morning. Forecast hours along the bottom, starting at 7am Friday (so 24 = 7am Saturday, etc.), temperature scale along the left. This average shows temps into the 40s by Sunday evening after remaining in the upper half of the 50s Saturday night.

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Growing season has ended for much of the area - a note on freeze headlines

The National Weather Service issues Frost Advisories and Freeze Watches and Warnings during the Mid-South growing season to give a heads-up to agricultural interests (primarily) of cold temperatures that could damage crops and other outdoor vegetation.  Since a large part of the area has seen sub-freezing temperatures already, no further watches/warnings/advisories will be issued for those parts of the Mid-South.  Areas that could still see watches/warnings/advisories include Shelby County, northwest MS, and east-central AR.

Here is the official statement from NWS-Memphis:

Minimum temperatures this fall season have fallen to freezing or below across much of west Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northeast and north central Mississippi. Therefore, frost/freeze headlines in this area will end for the season.

The need for frost/freeze headlines will continue for east central Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and Shelby County Tennessee. This is an area roughly south of U.S. Highway 64 and west of Interstate 55. Unless a freeze is observed beforehand, then frost/freeze headlines will be issued in this area no later than November 15th.

So, if a Frost Advisory is issued for Shelby County, but our friends in Fayette and Tipton Counties don't receive that advisory, this is the explanation.  In the MWN coverage area, no additional headlines are expected this fall for Tipton, Fayette or Marshall Counties.

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Frost/freezing conditions expected the next couple of nights

With the issuance of our first Freeze Warning of the fall (for Fayette and Tipton Counties) and Frost Advisory for the rest of the metro except Tunica County, it's a good time to provide some meteorological insight on why these freezes are able to occur and remind you to protect any tender vegetation.

It's not too hard to reach sub-freezing temperatures in the winter, but at this time of year the atmosphere needs a few specific conditions to get there:

1. Clear night
2. Relatively dry air
3. Close to calm winds

So it's no surprise that these are the conditions we're experiencing over the Mid-South as rural areas will begin to see these freeze effects.

A clear night is required because heat radiates off the surface of the Earth and into space most efficiently when there are no clouds to re-emit radiation back to Earth. [EP: Clouds act like a "blanket" at night trapping heat near the Earth's surface.  Areas outside the city, where concrete, buildings, etc. tend to hold heat more efficiently than grass, dirt, and vegetation, tend to be the coldest on clear nights.  This is why outlying areas are colder on cool nights than areas within a city.]

Relatively dry air is required because the amount of moisture in the air places a limit on how far the temperature can fall. The less moisture presence, the lower the temperature can get before reaching saturation. Once this happens condensation can occur which will further damage vegetation if the temperature is at or below freezing. [EP: Dewpoints are the measure of humidity we use to determine how far the temperature can fall at night. Tonight dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 20s.]

Last but not least, light winds are required because winds act to mix warmer air to the surface. Usually the coldest temperatures right at dawn are very close to the surface. This is a typical time for temperatures to be increasing with height in the lowest parts of the atmosphere rather than decreasing with height which is more typical during the day. This is because of radiational cooling which can only cool the air at the surface. [EP: Tonight's saving grace, keeping temperatures from dropping to freezing in the city, will be a wind of about 5 mph. A calm wind would mean even colder temps!]

NAM meteogram showing two nights of potential freezing in the Mid-South (This graphic is for the airport. Outlying areas will be cooler than shown above at night.)

Modeled temperatures and wind show favorable conditions for frost and freeze tonight and Friday night. The dotted green line represents the dew point which is the bound on how low the temperature can fall and also when condensation starts. Each night the temperature should reach this bound that will be near freezing. Winds are shown below that which are light throughout the period, even becoming calm during the overnight hours.

Weather Prediction Center's forecast of fronts and pressure systems for Friday morning

Light to calm winds are mostly due to the Mid-South being positioned under a high pressure. This is typical for a high pressure system because the pressure gradient is lowest near the center of the high.

As far as protecting vegetation, since sub-freezing temperatures are expected to be brief (a couple of hours or less), a hard freeze is not expected, and they will affect mostly rural areas, you can protect any vegetation that cannot be brought inside by putting a light cloth sheet over any plants. This acts to reduce radiational cooling, with the sheet playing the role of clouds in the atmosphere by keeping heat in. Just remember to remove this sheet in the early morning after temperatures begin to rise so that it can warm up quickly as well.

--William Churchill (Social Media Intern)

[Editor's comments are marked by EP and italicized.]

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Updated statement concerning Arctic cold blast

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
CIRRUS WEATHER SOLUTIONS - MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
335 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

...BLAST OF WINTER EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT... BRINGING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGHS SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE MID 30S. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SEND WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR ZERO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD... MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD PREPARE FOR A BIG SHIFT TO VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDER WINTERIZING YOUR VEHICLE... LETTING FAUCETS DRIP SLIGHTLY TO AVOID BURSTING PIPES...AND BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE FROM THE COLD.

$$

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NWS statement concerning Arctic cold blast Saturday night through Monday

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
813 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

...BLAST OF WINTER EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH FOR SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN... BUT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST.

STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM... WHICH WILL AID IN SENDING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

HIGHS SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY TOP OFF AROUND FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS NORTH OF I-40 AND MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SEND WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN 5 ABOVE ZERO AND 7 BELOW ZERO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD... MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE... NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE... IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD PREPARE FOR A BIG SHIFT TOWARD VERY COLD WEATHER LATER THIS WEEKEND. CONSIDER WINTERIZING YOUR VEHICLE... LETTING FAUCETS DRIP SLIGHTLY TO AVOID BURSTING PIPES... AND BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE FROM THE COLD.

$$

BORGHOFF/PWB

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End of the growing season; pleasant weather won't last long!

Our recent bout of cold weather has ended and high pressure positioned just to our east is allowing warmer air from the south to blanket the region this week. We will enjoy afternoon temperatures in the 70s through Friday with a few clouds but no rain. Overnight lows are also moderating, from the sub-freezing mark over the weekend back into the 40s and some lower 50s by tomorrow morning. More details can be found in the MWN Forecast.

The very cold morning lows over the weekend officially brought an end to the growing season - a term more familiar to those in agriculture than the general public. It is still a useful way to gauge the length of the "warm" season though. The growing season is defined as the period between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze. This year, the last 32-degree reading in the spring (at Memphis International) was March 5 and we hit 32 for the first time this fall on Saturday morning, November 6 (a few days earlier than average). Thus, the growing season was 245 days long, or 13 days longer than the climatological average. If you are a farmer, that is good news, though I am pretty sure the flooding in April/May, late summer drought, and extreme heat of the summer probably did more to harm the crops than a little longer growing season might have helped!

Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern changes again this weekend and we say good-bye to the 70s for a while. A fairly strong cold front will move through on Saturday, dropping highs by 15 degrees or so and ushering in a decent chance of rain Saturday. After Saturday, the computer models diverge and the solution is not as clear, but what is known is that there will be more clouds and possibly rain chances heading into next week and temperatures will be much cooler for the week before Thanksgiving. The NWS is expecting the same thing - take a look at the 8-14 day temperature outlook below! It appears temps across much of the continental U.S. will be well below normal and there is a 60%+ chance that temperatures in the Mid-South will average below normal for the week of Nov. 16-22. Enjoy the warmer weather this week while you have it!


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Poll results: When will the last freeze be?

The results are in! I posted a poll earlier this week, ahead of this weekend's expected cold snap, asking you when our last spring freeze would occur. So far, the last 32 degree low temperature at Memphis International Airport was March 5. Here are the poll results:

As you can see from the results, nearly half of the voters said that we have already had our last freeze. 3-4 votes each were cast for this weekend's cold weather and the last week of March. A couple people went out on a limb and said early April (and a couple even later!). Given that the expected low on Monday morning will be around 35, I now believe that we have seen our last freeze and the official "growing season," as well as mosquito season, has begun!

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When will Memphis get its last freeze of the spring?

The last freeze at Memphis International Airport was March 5, 2010, when the temperature briefly touched 32 degrees. It's now March 15th. Our typical "last freeze" date in the city is March 22nd, though in the suburbs and outlying areas it averages a few days later. (The last freeze for most suburban areas was March 6th, when the airport bottomed out at 33.) Of course, a frost is likely even later than these dates as temps in the 30s are still possible until the first of April on average.

Over the last decade, the lastest occurrence of 32 degrees or less (and hence, the start of the agricultural "growing season") was:

2009: March 3 (25 deg.)

2008: March 9 (30 deg.)

2007: April 8 (28 deg.) (remember that Easter Sunday morning?)

2006: March 26 (30 deg.)

2005: March 2 (28 deg.)

2004: March 10 (32 deg.)

2003: March 10 (30 deg.)

2002: March 23 (28 deg.)

2001: March 29 (31 deg.)

2000: April 9 (32 deg.)

This averages out to March 19th , slightly earlier than the 30-year climatological average.

So, are freezing temps over for the Memphis area until later this fall? The latest MWN Forecast does not show any freezing temps through March 29, however a system this weekend could pack a cold punch behind it. Depending on the exact track of the system and the strength of the cold air behind it, cold temperatures are not out of the question Sunday or Monday morning.

Here's a chance for you to be the forecaster! Vote in MWN's unscientific webpoll! When will we have our last freeze?

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Frost Advisory for west TN, except Shelby County

...THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRING FROST TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR SHELBY COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE WATCH. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SHELBY COUNTY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE SUBURBS AND OUTLYING AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OUTSIDE THE CITY PROPER.

$$

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WEST TN...NORTHEAST MS...AND NORTHEAST AR...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

CLEARING SKIES...NEARLY CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

NWS/MWN

Freeze Watch for west TN Saturday night

...THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT...

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE FREEZING MARK. WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO ANTICIPATED...LIKELY PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

WHILE THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... OUTLYING AREAS OF SHELBY COUNTY MAY FREEZE. THUS SHELBY COUNTY HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION... PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

$$

NWS/MWN

End of cold temps and a look ahead to Easter weekend

Freezing temps failed to materialize this morning across most of the Mid-South (not that we're complaining!) thanks to a steady wind of about 10 mph and cloud cover that hung in most of the night. Lows were all pretty much in the mid 30s and no records were broken.

The Weather Service maintains a Freeze Warning tonight for much of west TN east of a line from Dyersburg to Somerville, as well as northeast MS, including Tupelo. The metro area will remain above freezing as south wind blows at 5-8 mph. Some outlying areas, particularly north and east of the city, could see some patchy frost if the wind dies down more than forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s in the city and mid 30s in typically colder locations. I expect this will be the last gasp of winter and spring will finally take hold for good!

The warm-up really takes shape tomorrow as we reach 70 for a high and stay near that level through the upcoming Easter weekend. A storm system will bring a small chance of severe weather late Thursday afternoon through the night with dry conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Saturday will be the best day of the weekend with sunny skies and highs in the 70s. For Easter Sunday, sunrise services and morning activities should be OK, but by afternoon another strong frontal system approaches and showers and thunderstorms become likely. Plan your outdoor activities early in the day!

Cold snap threatens record temperatures

Cover those plants or bring them indoors and make sure your pet's water bowls don't freeze over - it's gonna be a cold one tonight! (But maybe not quite like that picture!)

Thanks to a potent cold front, clouds hanging in all day today to keep it cold and clearing late tonight, plus decreasing wind tonight, it looks like we could be set up for near-record low temperatures by morning. This is 3 years in a row we've had an April cold snap, last year being producing similar temperatures on April 14-15 (see 2008 climate data) and 2007 setting the record for tomorrow's date (April 7) and the 8th (see 2007 climate data) when it got a few degrees colder than the current forecast. Tomorrow's record low is 30 degrees set in 2007. The coldest high temperature for this date is 41, which we have eclipsed by just a few degrees. Look for near freezing in the city center tonight, but for everyone else, upper 20s are in order and precautions will need to be taken. That is the reason for the FREEZE WARNING for the entire region tonight from midnight to 9am.

Fortunately, the Memphis metro area is staying out of today's precipitation, but not too far east of here, in middle TN and farther north, snow is falling! Looking ahead, tomorrow will be a little warmer than today (50s) thanks to more sun, another cool night is expected Tuesday night, with patchy frost in the suburbs, then the warm-up begins in earnest on Wednesday ahead of the next rain-maker on Thursday.

Winter-like weather returns briefly to the Mid-South

A strong late winter cold front, followed by high pressure of Canadian origin, is zeroing in on the Mid-South and will pass through the region this afternoon. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will occur along the front, though rain chances are pretty low for the Memphis area. Behind the front, wind will shift to the west and become gusty (30-35 mph gusts) and temps will plummet overnight, from highs near 70 today to the 30s at most locations tonight. With the wind staying up in the 15-20 mph range, the threat of frost is very low tonight, but wind chills will fall to near or below 30 degrees. Clouds wrapping around the low pressure system associated with the front and the push of very cold air could result in sprinkles or perhaps even snow flurries (mainly north of the city) overnight tonight or tomorrow. Monday's highs will be some 25 degrees colder than today, so bundle up as wind will continue to make it feel very cold!!

For Monday night, that wind dies down and the clouds may even depart after midnight, leading to decent radiational cooling conditions, which means very cold temps. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the city and surrounding areas from midnight to 9am Tuesday as temps bottom out near 30 in the city and into the 26-29 degree range in the suburbs. This hard freeze will kill young plants and outdoor vegetation if not properly taken care of. If you have flowering bushes or other exposed plants with tender leaves that are not very close to the ground, you'll want to cover them up or bring them inside if possible. Tuesday will be a little warmer, but still well below normal with highs in the lower 50s. Another cold morning, with a frost definitely possible in the suburbs, will occur Wednesday before south wind helps temperatures quickly rebound during the day into the upper 60s.

The MWN Forecast will be updated to let you know just how LOW it will go!

Freeze Warning tonight

As an upper-level trough maintains its grip on the Mid-South for another 24 hours before moving east, more unseasonably cold weather is on tap for today (lower 50s) with a very cold night expected tonight. The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for the entire region for tonight as temps are expected to dip below freezing for everyone except those in the heart of the city. While the low at the airport (the official recording station for Memphis) will be around 36, outlying areas will see the mercury drop to 32 by about 2am with a low around 30 (perhaps a degree or two cooler in rural areas) at sunrise. By 9am, everyone should be back above freezing and rising quickly towards a high in the mid 60s. I do expect this to be the last freeze of the spring.

Due to recent warmth, and plenty of rain, many spring plants and flowers have already begun sprouting, growing, and blooming. A few hours of sub-freezing temperatures could damage or kill tender vegetation, especially those not right at the soil level, where soil warmth will protect the lowest couple of inches above the ground. Be sure to cover anything that you do not want damaged overnight tonight. My just-blooming azaleas will definitely be shrouded!

Severe weather behind, but now the cold air sets in

When you step outside over the next few days, you'll probably have to think hard to know what month it is! In the wake of a strong cold front that brought severe weather to many regions of the central and eastern U.S., a huge dome of unseasonably cold air will be settling over the Mid-South beginning today. You'll know it's there because when you look up, you'll find mostly cloudy skies. You'll also know by the cold breezes and temperatures in the 50s instead of the normal 70s! This is all thanks to a massive upper-level trough (or low pressure) that will settle east of the Mississippi River. Some areas north of us will even see snow flurries or showers, but don't count on that here. Instead, look for high temps in the 50s (low 50s Sunday) and lows in the 30s, with a chance of a light rain shower Sunday.

For those of you concerned about spring vegetation that has already made it's appearance, the frost factor for tonight will be minimal thanks to cloud cover and a steady breeze that should keep everyone in the upper 30s. By Sunday night/Monday morning, outlying areas could see a light frost as temps drop into the mid 30s, though once again cloud cover and wind should keep frost to a minimum. The best time to cover those tender outdoor plants will be Monday night. The low Tuesday morning could drop to 28-32 degrees outside the city proper and with clear skies and light wind, frost and perhaps even a couple hours of sub-freezing temps are possible.

The good news is a quick warm-up will take place starting Tuesday and we're back in the 70s Wednesday. I firmly believe that after Tuesday morning, this is the last time we will have to deal with frost until fall!