Friday, February 7, 2014

Good chance of snow tonight, but how much and what are the impacts?

This is an update to last night's post on the forecast for snow overnight tonight. A fast-moving upper-level disturbance will sweep out of the Southern Plains and across the Mid-South overnight. With cold air in place and precipitation likely, we're expecting snow.

Liquid equivalent amounts (if snow were melted) are expected to be light, under 0.10" and maybe closer to 0.05".  However, converted to snow, that could mean 1/2"-1" by the time you wake up Saturday morning with the best chance of this amount north of the TN/MS state line. Minor accumulation is also possible across north MS.  Confidence is high that we will see snow fall, not as high on amounts, though we don't see a circumstance where the forecast is wrong on the low end. This will not be a major snow, but it could be pretty Saturday morning!

Expected Impacts

As for impacts expected, due to very cold air for a week ahead of this system, frozen ground, and cold streets, minor accumulations could cause some slick streets, especially elevated ones. If you will be out after dark tonight or early Saturday, exercise caution on the roads. A light dusting on a cold road can be slippery. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire metro except Marshall Co., MS from 6pm tonight until 6am Saturday.

Looking ahead

At this time, we have no comment on possible winter weather early next week. Models are in disagreement even down to when precipitation will fall, which makes figuring out precip type impossible.  The only thing we can say is that it will be cold (but how cold?) and at least one, if not two, systems could affect the metro between Sunday night and Wednesday morning.  We'll keep you posted.

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