Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Very wet weather pattern arriving later this week

The Mid-South has been able to enjoy some very pleasant weather since the weekend as strong high pressure has taken control of our weather and kept any significant weather systems at bay.  However, as the high pressure shifts east toward the Atlantic coast, the path is now cleared for a developing storm system to our west that will begin affecting Mid-South weather late Wednesday night. This system will mark the beginning of a lengthy period of rain chances.

Prior to any rain’s arrival, the weather through most of Wednesday will remain rather pleasant and quite mild for early March. Temperatures will rise into the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies though winds will stay strong and gusty as they were during the day today.  Meanwhile, a surface low pressure area will begin developing over the Southwest U.S. Wednesday night, with a cold front extending to the northeast of it. This front will enter the Mid-South region Thursday.

The first showers may begin moving into the area late Wednesday night, but the heaviest of rain will move in with the front on Thursday afternoon and night. Some thunderstorms are expected as well, but fortunately this is not a system that will favor any severe weather. However, some of the rain could be quite heavy, with rain totals of 2-4” possible in the metro by Friday morning.  Due to the recent dry conditions, widespread flooding is currently not anticipated, but some local issues could develop where the heaviest totals occur.
NWS rain totals expected through Sunday night. The Memphis area could see up to 4" of rain.

European model forecast for 6 PM Thursday
This first front should clear the region by late Friday morning and this means drier weather moves into the area for later in the day. Some light showers may persist, but this break should last through much of Saturday. Then, another storm system begins to organize to our west, and high rain chances return to the area late Saturday night and especially Sunday. Another extended period of rain is possible, perhaps lasting into Monday, with additional heavy rainfall totals. At this time, the threat of severe weather appears low here as well.

European model forecast for 6 PM Sunday
This second system looks to clear the area by Tuesday and that should signal the return of a drier overall pattern for the rest of next week. It should be noted there remains a great deal of discrepancy in computer models for this entire period, so forecast details are subject to change in the days ahead. However, the current MWN forecast and this blog lean heavily on the European weather model, which has been reliably consistent with not only this period but also for much of the past several weeks and previous weather systems.

Stay with MemphisWeather.Net for the very latest on extended rain chances in the coming days. Additionally, for the full and up-to-date forecast for greater Memphis, be sure to visit our forecast page!

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

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