Thursday, December 2, 2010

November Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
November is generally a transition month in the Mid-South as winter draws closer, the growing season ends, and there are typically some very pleasant days. While the drought of previous months abated, temperatures averaged a little above normal as well. Even with the rain, the area was still classified as being in a moderate to severe drought as the month closed.

For November, the average temperature was 53.9 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was a pleasant 64.7 degrees and the average low was 43.0. The freezing mark was reached four times during the month, with the 2010 growing season ending on the 6th as the mercury dropped to 32. The lowest temperature for the month was 31 degrees and the highest temperature was 79.

Precipitation for the month of November totaled 6.57", or 0.81" above the normal of 5.76". It was the first month since July 2010 in which monthly precipitation was above normal. There were 12 days with measurable rainfall and the maximum 24-hour total was 2.04" on the 25th-26th. A trace of sleet/ice pellets was recorded on the 26th as Arctic air arrived just as rainfall was ending very early on Black Friday morning. The peak wind gust was 38 mph on the 24th, while the average wind speed for the month was 7.1 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International for November.

Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for November at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 51.4 degrees with a maximum of 79.6 on the 1st and a minimum of 25.0 degrees on the 6th.

November precipitation ended above normal with a rainfall total of 5.98". A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 6.32". A trace of sleet/ice pellets was recorded on the 26th and again on the 30th. The peak wind gust was 29 mph on the 24th. Average relative humidity was 70%. Click here for a daily recap on

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of November, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 3.17 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service. Nearly 50% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 3.02 degrees average error and was within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 50% of the time. Detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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