Saturday, January 2, 2010

Forecast accuracy for December and 2009

MWN Forecast Accuracy
The MWN Forecast concluded 2009 with the most accurate temperature and dewpoint forecasts for the month as compared to the available computer models and the National Weather Service. For the month, the average temperature error in all MWN forecasts was 2.53 degrees, or 0.14 of a degree better than the NWS and 0.34-0.80 degrees better than the GFS and NAM computer models. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 2.39 degrees average error. More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

For the year 2009, MWN's average temperature error for all forecasts was 2.29 degrees, 0.15 of a degree better than the NWS and also better than all computer models. The average dewpoint error for MWN was 2.56 degrees, also the most accurate of all sources compared. Since accuracy records began in 1998 (temperature) and 2003 (dewpoint), 2009 produced the most accurate MWN forecasts on record.

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

That's awesome, Erik!