Monday, August 4, 2008

Weather Thoughts for August 4

There were a couple of weather events worth noting today...

First, the NWS cancelled our Heat Advisory mid-afternoon today as heat indices weren't reaching the critical 105 degree level. The reason? Dewpoints. See my blog from July 11 on The Importance of Dewpoint. Even though the temperature climbed to near 100 today, the absolute amount of moisture in the air (dewpoint) fell this afternoon and heat indices didn't reach the necessary 105 degrees to constitute a heat advisory. This tells you just how difficult it can be to forecast something like the dewpoint. Yesterday, we had no trouble reaching 105-110 heat index as dewpoints stayed in the mid 70s. Today, they dropped into the 60s. The NWS does expect dewpoints to be back up tomorrow (as do I) so the Heat Advisory has been re-issued for tomorrow afternoon. We'll watch the dewpoints to see!

Also, Tropical Storm Edouard (or just Eddie) is churning in the northern Gulf just offshore Louisiana. Eddie's moving west towards the Houston/Galveston area with a projected landfall around Galveston Bay mid-morning Tuesday. Max wind, though just 45 mph now, are expected to increase steadily overnight, reaching just less than hurricane strength by landfall (65-70 mph). The inland track takes him into central TX with no impact to the Mid-South (unless it pulls a Dolly!). Fortunately he isn't near the storm Rita was a few years back when the entire city of Houston tried to evacuate - leaving motorists stranded on interstates for HOURS and HOURS as the storm side-swiped the city.

Finally, since it's my blog, I guess I can brag just a little... The MWN Forecast accuracy stats for July are in and my second period temperature forecasts averaged an error of just 0.85 degrees. That means of forecasts made for the second period (47 morning forecasts of that night's low and afternoon forecasts of the next day's high), I was off by less than a degree. For all MWN temperature forecasts made (235 total), my margin of error was 1.46 degrees - my best showing since July 2003. For more accuracy stats, visit the MWN Forecast Accuracy page.


Michael Detwiler said...


Awesome news about your weather stats..being just a half-degree off is EXCELLENT! Congratulations!


Anonymous said...

Excellent Erik!!