More tropical remnants will pay a visit to the Mid-South

Following a frontal system that moved through Tuesday, the week has been phenomenal with well below average temperatures, sunny skies, and low humidity. Since July 27, we have had only 6 days with a daily average temperature above normal, so the summer has definitely ended in a cool way! I'm glad to have fall weather in the Mid-South - probably my favorite season!

Looking ahead to this week, it appears that the second consecutive major U.S. hurricane to make landfall, Harvey then Irma, will have remnants that affect the Mid-South. While Monday looks decent with still a good deal of sunshine and temperatures that peak in the upper 70s, the wind will be a more breezy at 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

As the remnants of Irma move into eastern Alabama on Monday night as a tropical storm, clouds and rain chances increase in the Mid-South, as does the wind. Rain becomes likely after midnight Monday night and continues Tuesday. The strongest wind will likely occur early Tuesday as we feel sustained north wind of up to 20 mph and gusts of 30 mph as Irma runs into high pressure to our north, increasing the pressure gradient and resulting in gusty wind. During the day, as the remnants move closer in tropical depression form, wind could actually lessen a bit as the storm itself weakens further and the center draws closer and the influence of the high to our north weakens a bit. As the ultimate track, and decay rate, of Irma becomes a little more clear Monday, the forecast may need adjusting a bit. It's possible that we could see a bit stronger wind, but overall I do not expect the rain rates or the wind produced by Harvey a couple weeks earlier. Tuesday's temperatures are likely to remain in the 60s, so it'll be a cool, wet, breezy day.

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center for Irma.

Wednesday will see Irma's remnants dying out, but lingering showers in the area and less wind. It will also be another fairly cool day as temperatures likely only make it to about 70 degrees with cloud cover lingering. Rainfall totals in the Memphis area currently look to be in the 1.5-3" range (starting before sunrise Tuesday through the Wednesday showers).

Forecast rainfall amounts as of early Sunday afternoon from Irma's remnants. 2-3" of rain could fall between early Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon in the Mid-South.

Conditions improve heading towards the weekend as what's left of Irma's remnant low move east of the area, some sunshine returns and temperatures rebound back to 80+. Slight rain chances Thursday and Friday can't be ruled out. It appears that decent weather will occur for Friday night football, Cooper Young Fest, and Live at the Garden's closing concert, as well as Saturday's Memphis-UCLA football game - finally one not affected by a tropical cyclone!

We'll post the latest on Hurricane Irma and the effects on the southeast U.S. and Memphis area on our social media feeds. Also stay up to date with local conditions and forecast information via the MWN mobile app, available in your app store. All links are below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Our first autumn cold front nears, plus a look at Irma's potential track

Have you grown tired of the off and on summertime heat across the Mid-South? Are you ready for the fall-like weather to return to the Memphis area for September? If so, then we have some great news. Mother Nature is listening to your complaints. Fall will be back for the area this week.

The Trough of Change

As many head out to celebrate the Labor Day holiday, the weather is setting up for a big change in the next 48 hours. An upper level trough digging in from the Rocky Mountains will bring in rain and cooler air, beginning with a chance of a few showers on Monday afternoon. Those showers become more numerous heading into Tuesday, as the cold front associated with this trough pushes closer to Memphis. Highs on Labor Day will hit the upper 80s, with lows on Monday night dropping to the low 70s.

The trough moving in from the Rocky Mountains will help shove the cold front south into the Memphis area, bringing rain and cooler temperatures with it. (NOAA/NWS)

Tuesday marks the beginning of the cooler temperatures, with plenty of clouds and rain and a few thunderstorms likely. Definitely have your rain jacket and umbrella ready when heading to work or back to school, with highs only reaching the upper 70s. This comes as the cold front bringing all the rain pushes through the region early on Tuesday. Showers will begin to decrease Tuesday evening as the front digs deeper into Mississippi, with lows Wednesday morning in the upper 50s (yes, you read that right).

Throwing It Back to the 70s

It may feel like it's been a while since we've talked about highs only hitting the 70s in the Mid-South, but September feels like the right time for some summertime relief! Once the cold front pushes out of our area on Tuesday night and the upper level trough moves over the area, conditions will clear out with cooler temperatures too. Wednesday begins the new cool trend, with mostly sunny skies and highs only reaching the mid 70s. Lows will drop down to the mid 50s.

Friday's high temperatures will be in the mid 70s across the Mid-South, closer to our lows this past week than our recent highs.

The cooler trend continues into the late week, as Thursday and Friday continue with sunny skies and highs in the mid 70s. Lows once again drop into the 50s, something we haven't seen in several months! Temperatures will begin to warm a bit by the weekend as the upper trough lifts out, however highs will still be comfortable on Saturday (in the upper 70s) and Sunday (near 80). Sunny skies will continue too.

Could fall finally be here? Or will summer crank back up one last time in September? Keep checking our MWN human-powered forecast for the latest weather around the Memphis area, which you can also find on our MWN Weather App. Be sure to also follow us on Facebook and Twitter for all the great weather updates and fun facts.

Alex Herbst, Meteorologist
MWN Social Media Intern

Checking in on Irma

After one major U.S. landfall with Harvey ended the 12-year drought of U.S. major landfalls, it is becoming increasingly possible that we could have two of these in a month. Hurricane Irma is a category 3 major storm as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. Over the course of the next few days, it will take on a west-northwest track, likely moving it just north of the main island chain in the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. All of the islands in that chain could see tropical storm to hurricane conditions as Irma actually strengthens more.

The latest official track for Hurricane Irma. The MWN Tropical Page has the latest details.

The end of the week into the weekend is the tricky part of the forecast, though we’re getting within range of making some predictions that could be considered educated and distinctly possible, rather than just guesses or “hype-casts.” Irma is expected to remain a major (category 3+) hurricane until it makes landfall. Where that landfall happens is still TBD.

At the risk of getting “weather nerdy” on you, there is a major trough (that Alex talked about above) that will move into the northeast U.S. and have a direct influence on the track of Irma. At some point, Irma is likely to make a right (northward) turn towards that trough. Earlier it appeared that that might occur before it reached the Florida peninsula, pulling Irma north along the east coast. It now appears that the trough could lift north before Irma is able to start turning towards it, resulting in a later turn and a northward motion that could take it directly into south Florida. If it turns even later, it could go up the west side of Florida in the Gulf.

Multiple computer models provide a fairly consistent track for Irma until it nears Florida. However.... (see below)

...the American GFS computer model's ensemble system (basically, the model being run multiple times with different initial and forecast parameters) shows the true picture. There are potentially many options yet for Irma including landfalls from the Carolinas to the Florida panhandle. The European model (not shown) still also shows the potential for a narrow miss of the east coast with an earlier turn north. (WxBell)

We don’t know yet when that will happen, but NOAA and the NWS are starting a massive atmospheric data gathering surge to try and sample the upper levels as best as possible to help the forecasters, and computer models, more accurately predict Irma’s motion. If you have friends or family in Florida or along the southeast U.S. coast up to the Carolinas, they need to start preparing now for the possibility of a strong storm this weekend as forecasters work to more accurately predict the eventual track.

You’ll find much more information on the tropics on the MWN Tropical Page.

Erik Proseus, Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder