Hurricane Laura strengthens; remnants to impact the Mid-South

Laura became a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning about 7am and has intensified only slightly since that time as it churns northwestward towards the central Gulf Coast. However, more rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 hours as it nears the coast, ultimately reaching major hurricane (category 3) status by the time it reaches the coast near the TX/LA border overnight Wednesday night. Here's a look at the visible satellite imagery of an organizing Laura the last couple of hours before sunset Tuesday:

The track provided by the National Hurricane Center at 4pm Tuesday (below) shows the turn from the west to north tonight and tomorrow and landfall around midnight Wednesday night with maximum sustained wind of 115 mph and gusts to 140 mph! It should be noted that there is still some discrepancy between the models, and it is entirely possible that it could be a bit stronger than that. In addition, the Hurricane Warning extends as far west as Galveston Bay (Houston) and the storm could still shift a bit more to the west towards the greater Houston metro. Needless to say, a strong category 3 storm sideswiping a massive American city like Houston during a pandemic could be devastating (2020, it that you?), but no matter where the center hits (Beaumont, Lake Charles, or vicinity), the results will be simply awful.

After landfall, Laura will take a path north along the TX/LA border into Arkansas by Thursday evening, still as a tropical storm. By Thursday night, Tropical Storm Laura is near Little Rock and starting to take a turn to the east as it gets caught up in strong westerly wind flow. The center of the remnants should be north of Jonesboro near the AR/MO line by Friday afternoon then swiftly move by to our north and across KY through mid-day Saturday.

As for Mid-South impacts, we will know it passed nearby. We'll see chances of showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days leading up to its approach, but our best chance for impact-ful weather from Laura will be late Thursday through Friday night. This is when we could see wind gusts close to 40 mph (particularly daytime Friday) with sustained wind to 20-30 mph. In addition, periods of heavy rain are likely Friday into Friday night, though heavy downpours could be scattered about or in bands Thursday afternoon as well. In addition, tropical remnants are occasionally known to throw out (typically weak) tornadoes, and we'll be on the right side of the storm track for those to possibly occur, again most likely Friday when temperatures are warmest and instability highest.

The main threat though, besides some trash can throwing wind gusts, will be heavy rain. The Weather Prediction Center currently has much of AR right up to the Mississippi River in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding Thursday into Friday morning, though I expect a similar threat to be extended in to Friday. For now, west TN and northwest MS are in a Slight Risk, but that may be higher on Friday as the storm passes to our north. Current rainfall projections from the NWS are between 4-5" for the metro through Sunday evening. This does include additional showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend after the storm passes as well.

My suggestions for preparation on Wednesday and Thursday:

• Tie down or bring inside any loose outdoor objects, including patio seat cushions!
• Make sure gutters and storm drains are clear of debris and ready to accept heavy rain.
• Know where you'll go and have your safe place ready just in case a Tornado Warning is issued
• If out in heavy rain, avoid swollen waterways (and watch your kids closely too) and don't drive into areas where water covers the road.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms unfortunately remain in the forecast for several days after Laura's remnants pass, so remember that after heavy rain has saturated the ground from Laura, additional rainfall is more likely to run off and result in flooding in low-lying areas more easily. There are early hints of a potential pattern shift as we hit the first of September. Let's get through this week first though!

Stay safe and follow us on social media for the latest information!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Tropical Storm Cristobal takes aim at the Gulf Coast, and Mid-South

As we just finish the end of the first official week of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the THIRD named storm of the year will become the SECOND U.S. landfall in what is expected to be an active season overall. Previously, Tropical Storm Arthur made a close approach to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday, May 18. That was followed by Tropical Storm Bertha, which formed and gained tropical storm strength an hour before making landfall on the South Carolina coast on May 27.

Tropical Storm Cristobal moves towards the Gulf Coast

Now, all eyes turn toward the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Cristobal churns towards the Louisiana coastline with a Sunday evening landfall projected. Due to recent interaction with the Yucatan peninsula and dry air wrapping around the system, rapid strengthening is not forecast and the system likely won't have time to gain hurricane strength before making landfall.

Saturday morning visible satellite imagery of T.S. Cristobal as it heads for the LA coastline (COD)

Primary threats from the central Louisiana coastline eastward through the MS, AL, and FL panhandle coastal areas this weekend into Monday are torrential rain that is likely to cause freshwater flooding, wind gusts to near hurricane force, up to 5 feet of storm surge, churning waters with high waves and rip currents, and isolated tornadoes.

The official track for T.S. Cristobal as of Saturday morning, via the National Hurricane Center.

Once Cristobal makes landfall, it will move north-northwest across Louisiana into Arkansas on Monday, then accelerate north and northeast into Missouri Tuesday morning and across the Corn Belt into the western Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The main impacts in the Lower Mississippi Valley and north as far as the Mid-South are likely to be gusty wind shifting from east to south, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Forecast tracks from multiple models are in fairly good consensus Saturday morning, as shown by this "spaghetti plot" of model solutions. (Tropical Tidbits)

Remnants of Cristobal to impact the Mid-South

While we won't notice anything out of the ordinary this weekend (mostly sunny with highs in the 90s), initial impacts in the Memphis area will begin Monday as clouds thicken, rain arrives around lunchtime into the afternoon and breezes pick up from the southeast.

Forecast rain amounts from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center show up to 3" in the Memphis metro, while higher amounts will occur just to the east of the center's path with lesser amounts further away. (WeatherBell)

The period of heaviest rainfall in the metro is likely to be Monday evening through Tuesday morning when 2-3" of rain could fall (heaviest in east AR) as the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to move through central AR. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight and the tornado threat will bear watching (though they are typically more common in these scenarios during the daytime hours when the sun's rays provide a little more instability). In addition, wind will pick up out of the southeast to 25-30 mph with gusts reaching 30-40 mph Monday evening and overnight.

According to the early Saturday run of the European model, maximum wind gusts through Tuesday evening will be in the 50-60 mph range just to the east of the storm's path, while we could see 40+ mph peak wind. (WeatherBell)

By Tuesday morning, with the center of the storm into central Missouri, steady rain should taper off but showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible, especially in the morning hours. Wind will likely remain gusty from the south Tuesday, in the 30-35 mph range. By Tuesday night, a cold front will push through, bringing the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms, but also escorting a drier and less humid airmass for the remainder of the week.

Preparation and cleanup weather

We recommend using this weekend to prepare for heavy rain and prolonged strong wind Monday PM into Tuesday. Make sure gutters and storm drains are clear and ready for a couple of inches of rain. Secure outdoor objects or bring them in. A few wind gusts Monday night will exceed 40 mph, but a lengthy period of 30-40 mph wind gusts is expected (up to 24 hours). Once it all passes, pleasant early summer weather with low humidity, highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the mid 60s for several days will make for ideal conditions for any cleanup that is necessary.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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Gordon's effects on the Mid-South

As Tropical Storm (maybe Hurricane, depending on when you read this) Gordon heads towards the central Gulf Coast for a landfall likely to occur somewhere along the MS or AL coastline, many of you have expressed interest in how it will affect our weather.

Forecast track and intensity

Latest forecast track of Gordon from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The track forecast has been spot on and relatively easy for several days (in fact, almost a week ago, the European model depicted a landfall near New Orleans for the middle of this week, before the Hurricane Center started publicizing the possibility of the storm). A strong mid and upper level ridge of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley is basically steering the storm northwest. That trend will continue through landfall tonight and into Wednesday and Thursday, though a slower forward speed is expected after landfall. While Gordon may briefly reach hurricane strength before landfall tonight, it will quickly diminish in strength once it encounters land.

Primary threats remain to our south

The primary threats with the storm will be hurricane force wind in a small area near the center where it makes landfall, storm surge for the MS/AL/west FL panhandle coastlines, and copious amounts of rain across along and just to the right of its track into the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Mid-South. Along that path, rainfall amounts of up to 6-10"+ will be likely, resulting in flash flooding in some areas. The most recent rainfall potential graphic is shown below.

Potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will remain to our south the next couple of days. (NHC via WPC)

Mid-South rainfall

The heaviest and steadiest rain will miss the greater Memphis area it appears, though we will start to see scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as the center moves across south-central MS. The trend will continue Wednesday night as it moves into southern AR, though with fewer thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center believes any strong wind or isolated tornadoes common in landfalling tropical systems will remain to our south.

The SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday indicates the potential for severe storms should remain to our south. (SPC)

By Thursday, as the center of the remnants of Gordon move through western or central AR, we will be in a position to see continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. It is worth pointing out that no prolonged heavy rains are expected, but some localized areas could get a downpour, especially in thunderstorm cells. Overall, an inch of rain or so can't be ruled out over the next couple of days but most places should stay under a half inch.

NWS/WPC rainfall forecast through Thursday evening shows 1"+ rainfall amounts to our south.

Rain chances looks to dip a bit Friday into Saturday as the storm moves well to our west, though with ta humid and moist airmass left behind, a chance of thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons can't be ruled out. By late in the weekend, it appears a frontal system could slowly approach, resulting in increased rain chances as it moves into the humid air.

Mid-South wind impacts

As for wind, the strongest sustained wind in our area will likely be Wednesday afternoon when the storm is still at its strongest and in close enough proximity to generate easterly gusts to 25 mph or so. That is expected to calm down to 10-15 mph Wednesday night and Thursday as Gordon falls apart. No major power or tree issues are expected, just a fresh breeze from a semi-unusual direction tomorrow!

We encourage you to check out the MWN Forecast for the latest information via the mobile app or our website, and stick to us on Facebook and Twitter for hyper-local updates as needed. All links are below. Hopefully, the best news from Gordon is increased cloud cover and some showers that knock the edge off the heat of late!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

More tropical remnants will pay a visit to the Mid-South

Following a frontal system that moved through Tuesday, the week has been phenomenal with well below average temperatures, sunny skies, and low humidity. Since July 27, we have had only 6 days with a daily average temperature above normal, so the summer has definitely ended in a cool way! I'm glad to have fall weather in the Mid-South - probably my favorite season!

Looking ahead to this week, it appears that the second consecutive major U.S. hurricane to make landfall, Harvey then Irma, will have remnants that affect the Mid-South. While Monday looks decent with still a good deal of sunshine and temperatures that peak in the upper 70s, the wind will be a more breezy at 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

As the remnants of Irma move into eastern Alabama on Monday night as a tropical storm, clouds and rain chances increase in the Mid-South, as does the wind. Rain becomes likely after midnight Monday night and continues Tuesday. The strongest wind will likely occur early Tuesday as we feel sustained north wind of up to 20 mph and gusts of 30 mph as Irma runs into high pressure to our north, increasing the pressure gradient and resulting in gusty wind. During the day, as the remnants move closer in tropical depression form, wind could actually lessen a bit as the storm itself weakens further and the center draws closer and the influence of the high to our north weakens a bit. As the ultimate track, and decay rate, of Irma becomes a little more clear Monday, the forecast may need adjusting a bit. It's possible that we could see a bit stronger wind, but overall I do not expect the rain rates or the wind produced by Harvey a couple weeks earlier. Tuesday's temperatures are likely to remain in the 60s, so it'll be a cool, wet, breezy day.

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center for Irma.

Wednesday will see Irma's remnants dying out, but lingering showers in the area and less wind. It will also be another fairly cool day as temperatures likely only make it to about 70 degrees with cloud cover lingering. Rainfall totals in the Memphis area currently look to be in the 1.5-3" range (starting before sunrise Tuesday through the Wednesday showers).

Forecast rainfall amounts as of early Sunday afternoon from Irma's remnants. 2-3" of rain could fall between early Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon in the Mid-South.

Conditions improve heading towards the weekend as what's left of Irma's remnant low move east of the area, some sunshine returns and temperatures rebound back to 80+. Slight rain chances Thursday and Friday can't be ruled out. It appears that decent weather will occur for Friday night football, Cooper Young Fest, and Live at the Garden's closing concert, as well as Saturday's Memphis-UCLA football game - finally one not affected by a tropical cyclone!

We'll post the latest on Hurricane Irma and the effects on the southeast U.S. and Memphis area on our social media feeds. Also stay up to date with local conditions and forecast information via the MWN mobile app, available in your app store. All links are below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder