Sunday, September 10, 2017

More tropical remnants will pay a visit to the Mid-South

Following a frontal system that moved through Tuesday, the week has been phenomenal with well below average temperatures, sunny skies, and low humidity. Since July 27, we have had only 6 days with a daily average temperature above normal, so the summer has definitely ended in a cool way! I'm glad to have fall weather in the Mid-South - probably my favorite season!

Looking ahead to this week, it appears that the second consecutive major U.S. hurricane to make landfall, Harvey then Irma, will have remnants that affect the Mid-South. While Monday looks decent with still a good deal of sunshine and temperatures that peak in the upper 70s, the wind will be a more breezy at 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

As the remnants of Irma move into eastern Alabama on Monday night as a tropical storm, clouds and rain chances increase in the Mid-South, as does the wind. Rain becomes likely after midnight Monday night and continues Tuesday. The strongest wind will likely occur early Tuesday as we feel sustained north wind of up to 20 mph and gusts of 30 mph as Irma runs into high pressure to our north, increasing the pressure gradient and resulting in gusty wind. During the day, as the remnants move closer in tropical depression form, wind could actually lessen a bit as the storm itself weakens further and the center draws closer and the influence of the high to our north weakens a bit. As the ultimate track, and decay rate, of Irma becomes a little more clear Monday, the forecast may need adjusting a bit. It's possible that we could see a bit stronger wind, but overall I do not expect the rain rates or the wind produced by Harvey a couple weeks earlier. Tuesday's temperatures are likely to remain in the 60s, so it'll be a cool, wet, breezy day.

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center for Irma.

Wednesday will see Irma's remnants dying out, but lingering showers in the area and less wind. It will also be another fairly cool day as temperatures likely only make it to about 70 degrees with cloud cover lingering. Rainfall totals in the Memphis area currently look to be in the 1.5-3" range (starting before sunrise Tuesday through the Wednesday showers).

Forecast rainfall amounts as of early Sunday afternoon from Irma's remnants. 2-3" of rain could fall between early Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon in the Mid-South.

Conditions improve heading towards the weekend as what's left of Irma's remnant low move east of the area, some sunshine returns and temperatures rebound back to 80+. Slight rain chances Thursday and Friday can't be ruled out. It appears that decent weather will occur for Friday night football, Cooper Young Fest, and Live at the Garden's closing concert, as well as Saturday's Memphis-UCLA football game - finally one not affected by a tropical cyclone!

We'll post the latest on Hurricane Irma and the effects on the southeast U.S. and Memphis area on our social media feeds. Also stay up to date with local conditions and forecast information via the MWN mobile app, available in your app store. All links are below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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