Sunday, November 25, 2018

Say good-bye to 60s; colder weather is on the way

Hopefully everyone got to enjoy the period of warmer weather, especially since it happened to fall during the holiday period. That said, tonight's cold front is going to quickly bring an end to that. Brace yourselves, grab the jacket, and check out the upcoming forecast for this week!

The European model (ECMWF) shows that by 6am Monday we will see temperatures around 34 degrees. (WxBell)


Very windy conditions are accompanying tonight's cold front thanks to such a strong temperature gradient. Source: National Weather Service

The small band of rain from today's cold front is going to be scooting out of here very fast. In fact, rain wraps up early this evening. The big topic is what's behind it: very windy conditions. With such a strong pressure gradient associated with the front, plan on hanging on to more than just your hat. Gusts will be over 30 mph through a portion of the night. Skies will be quickly clearing overnight as well. Accompanying these wind conditions will be a very fast cool down. How fast of a cool down? Well, at 5pm the temperature was 64 degrees. Tonight's low is set for 33 degrees. That's a 31 degree temperature change in about 12 hours. 


Sunshine returns for your Monday, but make sure you have the coat as you are running out the door to work. After tonight's low of 33 degrees, it will be a struggle to warm during the day and temps will only climb to 44 degrees. Don't forget about that wind, too. Winds will still be blowing, but not as badly as tonight. Look for a northwest wind around 13 mph to make for a blustery feeling. Monday night will be very chilly: the coldest night of the week with a low of 27, thanks to effective cooling due to minimal wind and no cloud cover.

Tuesday through Thursday

The weather takes a "chill pill" through the mid week. Temperatures will slowly be on the rise (key word slowly). On Tuesday, look for another day with highs in the 40s (but upper 40s at least). Wednesday we climb into the lower 50s and finally by Thursday we climb back into the lower 60s. That slow warm up will be a result of the Canadian high pressure shifting to our east, allowing a south wind  to return to the region. Unfortunately, along with it will come some moisture to feed some rain, but Thursday will only be a minimal chance of a few showers. The best rain chances hold off until Thursday night/Friday and into the weekend. All the while, lows through this time period will also slowly be on the rise, starting in the upper 20s for Tuesday night and finishing off in the lower 40s by Thursday night.

The American climate model (CFS) shows well below average surface temperatures for the upcoming 5 days. (WxBell)


Thanks to the input of moisture with the return of our southerly wind and the combination of weak shortwaves that act as triggers, we will see the chance for stray showers. With the return of rain also comes with warmer weather. Look for a high of 65 degrees. Friday night will feature cloudy skies, mild weather (low of 55), and a chance of showers.

Saturday and Sunday

Models place a strong low in Missouri Saturday morning to mid-day, bringing rain and potential storms to Memphis. (Tropical Tidbits)
Models are coming into agreement for timing of a strong low pressure system to bring a cold front with accompanying rain and possible storms Saturday, with the best lock in for timing being earlier in the day, at the moment. That means for those prepping to run the St.Jude Memphis Marathon, you may want to start looking into a great pair of swimming googles. With such a strong system and a low located around the Missouri region, we will be keeping an eye on this event, but will refrain from mentioning severe weather at the moment (wait, did I just mention it??). Look for a high in the mid 60s Saturday (which could change if we get any change on arrival time of the front). Saturday night, skies will remain mostly to partly cloudy as temps start to drop, with a low foretasted in the mid 40s.

Sunday should be much less of a headache weather-wise unless the front slow significantly. Partly cloudy skies and a high in the upper 50s for now.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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