Friday, September 14, 2012

The changing seasons - will Memphis see 90 again in 2012?

Finally!  It seems like more comfortable weather has made an appearance this week in the Mid-South following another summer that seemed like it would never end.  The passage of Isaac over Arkansas seemed to be the "event" that signaled the end of a hot, dry summer and more temperate conditions, lower humidity, and more frequent showers and storms since the first of September.  In fact, since September 1, most of the metro has seen an improvement in drought conditions (especially short-term) after a two-month stay in the "Extreme Drought" category.

As we head into a busy early fall weekend, many have asked what the weather will bring for football, Cooper Young Festival, and other activities. A weak cold front moves over the region today and lingers through the weekend, however the rain chances are not high with this front. As it moves in today, we'll see a few scattered showers this afternoon - support for thunder is minimal. Most of these should be done in time for Friday night high school football games this evening with comfortable, if slightly humid, weather.

These conditions continue tomorrow with highs again in the 80s, moderate humidity, and a slight chance of showers. No washouts are predicted. Once again, any showers should end by evening in time for Memphis Tigers football at Liberty Bowl Stadium (GO TIGERS!). Conditions will be MUCH improved over the first home game of the year 2 weekends ago when severe storms caused a 2 1/2+ hour lightning delay!

By Sunday, we'll see some upper level energy move into the area, especially by evening, supporting higher rain chances as the front moves back into the picture. Right now, rain chances are 50/50 Sunday and Sunday night. Highs remain in the 80s Sunday and Monday. On Monday night, a REAL cold front moves through, bringing a round of showers and possible thunderstorms, then another blast of fall weather for the middle of next week! We're talking highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and much reduced humidity!  Click here for the complete MWN Forecast.

Tuesday 7pm (9/18/12) forecast temps from the GFS model. Yellow is lower 60s. Check out the 40s/50s to our north!
So, the other question people are beginning to ask is, "will we see 90 degrees again this year?"  I have to say, it is looking doubtful.  As average highs drop into the mid 80s, there are no 90-degree highs in the forecast, and a cooler pattern looks to take hold by the middle of next week, I believe that we're done with the 90s for 2012!  Certainly I can't completely rule out a 90-degree reading between fronts for another few weeks, but the likelihood seems low.  Below is the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA which shows a high probability of below normal temperatures for the period September 21-27. We'll take it!

How about you? Are you ready for fall? 

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