Thursday, October 13, 2011

Autumn cold blast due by the middle of next week!

As I was looking over the mid-range model data today, I saw reinforcing evidence of something I had been watching for a couple of days.  In fact, when I saw it, I tweeted about it. Models are consistent in predicting a major blast of fall weather next week!

The map below shows the GFS model forecast for Tuesday morning. (You'll probably want to click it to enlarge it even further.)  The color fill is precipitation for the early morning hours Tuesday - rain and possibly a few thunderstorms could affect the region early in the day. A strong cold front is depicted as a blue dashed line that would arrive in the Mid-South early in the day.  Be sure to take note of the direction of the wind behind the front and the source region for that wind (I've provided an assist with the big blue arrow).  Massive high pressure, with Canadian origin, is building in behind the front.  As large as the high is, it will dominate the weather for several days.  Also take note of the temperatures behind the front. Readings in the 30s are found dropping as far south as Kansas Tuesday morning with 40s across northwest AR.

In a nutshell, we are due to see some of the coldest temperatures yet this fall by Wednesday and Thursday mornings next week as that massive high pressure system inches closer. Readings in the 40s will be common and I wouldn't be surprised to see some frost in outlying areas those mornings.  In the meantime, I have posted highs in the mid 60s for mid-late next week, but don't be surprised if those numbers are adjusted down by then.  We could have trouble getting out of the 50s on Wednesday and Thursday!

How about you? Do you enjoy this kind of weather or is mid-October too early for talk of lows in the 30s?

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