Best chance for rain in some time arrives mid-week

It’s been a fantastic run of weather for the past couple of weeks, where even clouds have been tough to find on most days! With few to no clouds, rain has not been a concern either. In fact, the last measurable rainfall most of the Mid-South saw was on September 25. So, many areas are likely in need of a bit of precipitation by now, and though a few sprinkles have been around today, the vast majority of the area has stayed dry. Later in the week will provide the opportunity for more of the region to see some rainfall.

Once the increased clouds and very isolated sprinkles move out this evening, conditions will return to the rule of the past several days through Tuesday night with partly cloudy skies and temperatures a bit above the early October average, in the lower 60s for lows and lower 80s for highs. Meanwhile, a cold front will be moving out of the Central Plains and towards the Mid-South on Wednesday, bringing the chances for rain. At this time, it appears an area of scattered showers, and possibly some thunderstorms as well, will move through the region Wednesday afternoon into the evening, just ahead of the front. While not all areas may end up seeing rainfall, it will certainly be the best chances since the cold front of September 25. An isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out, but atmospheric conditions do not appear to be lining up for organized severe storms or particularly heavy rainfall amounts.

NWS Total Precipitation for Wednesday evening, showing light rainfall amounts (up to 1/4”) possible across the region in association with a passing cold front

The front will clear the region by Thursday morning, bringing a return to dry weather for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Somewhat cooler temperatures will follow as well, but since this front will not be Canadian in origin, but rather based out of the Pacific, it will mostly act as a humidity reducer. High temperatures will manage to drop back to the mid to upper 70s to close out the week, before returning to near 80 for the weekend, while overnight lows return to the 50s.

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.net

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