Friday, March 25, 2011

Two rounds of thunderstorms over the next 24 hours

The Mid-South is positioned to see two rounds of rain and thunderstorms on Saturday as a stationary/cold front sits across southern Arkansas and central Mississippi (moving slowly north) and two disturbances will move swiftly along the front tonight and again on Saturday afternoon and evening.

The first round of storms will develop right here in the Mid-South rather than moving in from the west, later this evening.  As an upper-level disturbance approaches, we'll see scattered thunderstorms begin to fire up over AR and move east and develop further during the overnight hours, mainly after midnight. Cluster of storms will be possible and a few could be borderline-severe, mainly over east-central AR and northwest MS (see graphic below for SLIGHT RISK area), with the main threat being large hail.

Severe weather threat area for Friday night
This first round of rain and thunderstorms will likely move out of the area by mid-morning, with a short break before the next round moves in during the mid-afternoon hours. This round of storms will also focus along the cold-turned-warm front, which will probably move a little further north into east-central AR, north MS, and north AL.  Once again, a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather is possible over these areas and possibly the southern tier of counties in TN, including the Memphis area (see graphic below).  The northern extent of the severe weather will depend strongly on the position of the warm front. Areas north of the front will be much less susceptible.  The severe weather threats will be large hail, damaging wind, and possibly tornadoes.  The greatest tornado threat appears to be centered over northeast MS and north AL.

Severe weather threat area for Saturday
This second round of storms will exit the region stage-right during the evening hours on Saturday, leaving behind cloudy skies and a cool, but likely dry, Sunday.'s StormView Radar and Storm Center will have your severe weather coverage during both events. Our Twitter feed - @shelbyalerts - will also automatically tweet severe thunderstorm watches and warnings and we'll have as much coverage as possible on Facebook and Twitter (@memphisweather1) via the links in the footer below.

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