Sunday, February 6, 2011

More snow - details on Monday's system and an initial look at mid-week

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of east AR, most of west TN, and DeSoto and Tunica Counties in northwest MS for Monday. East of the river, including the Memphis metro area, this advisory is in effect from 6am to 6pm.  The map to the left (click for larger version) shows the Advisory area and expected snow amounts.

Above normal temperatures exist across the Memphis metropolitan area this afternoon with highs in the 50s today, but a cold front will move through this evening, bringing wind around to the north. In addition, an upper-level disturbance over Texas will approach the area with an area of precipitation.  As temperatures fall overnight, light rain will begin after midnight, changing to light snow around dawn as the mercury reaches the middle 30s. By 9am, we should see all precipitation falling in the form of snow. Snow could fall at a pretty good clip during the morning hours before tapering off to flurries during the afternoon. I expect temperatures to remain in the low to mid 30s all day Monday with a north wind making it feel 20-25 degrees colder than this afternoon. Snow accumulations will likely be around 1-1.5" in the city and surrounding suburbs by early afternoon. Roads will likely become hazardous and slushy, especially secondary streets.

The next winter weather storm will move through the region Wednesday. This storm system has been hyped (or shall I say discussed) since the middle of last week when mid-range models went nuts with snow amounts and the degree of cold air behind it. As expected, those same models have moderated considerably, though another bout of winter weather appears likely. We'll monitor the situation and bring you the latest, especially after tomorrow's snow ends, but right now there still appears to be the potential for accumulating snow of a few inches late Wednesday into early Thursday. The good news is, after that round of weather, signs point towards a less active and warmer pattern heading into next weekend!

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sudo said...

Good news?? Hey! I'm ready for even more of the white stuff. Only way to get a day off around here. And besides.. I have grown children that have never seen any snow deeper than 4". Last decent snow here was what? 1985? Got 9" that time.

Meteorologist Erik Proseus said...

I guess it depends where you are. Last year on Feb 8 the airport had a little over 5". And on March 1, 2009, there was 9-10" on the north side of Shelby Co., but only 4-5" if I recall on the south side of town. It's been snowy, just not a HUGE dumping. I'll take the big snow and get it over with then 3-4 two-inch snows!