Saturday, December 19, 2009

Quick update on Christmas week storm

Once again, the computer models are flip-flopping worse than a candidate for public office in the days leading up to an election. However, a couple of models are now starting to sync up and as the days tick by and the potential storm gets closer at hand, the accuracy should start to increase... hopefully.

Where earlier this week the candidate low pressure system looked to head just to our south and move off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard, it then was forecast to switch direction and move just to our north and towards the Northeast. The latest trend, supported by the last couple of runs from the GFS as well as the European model from last night, indicates it will move from northeastern TX Wednesday to the mid-Mississippi Valley Christmas Eve, and then into the western Great Lakes on Christmas Day.

What this would mean for the Mid-South is a very wet, potentially very windy, day with embedded thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night (all rain as temps appear to be near to above normal), then continued breezy with scattered rain showers on Thursday as temps fall from the 40s into the upper 30s, followed by the cold air finally blanketing the region Christmas Day into early next weekend. The bad news about this track is the cold air would be so late in arriving (well after the best moisture is gone) that perhaps some flurries or possibly a brief snow shower would be the best we could hope for.

I'll continue to track the situation and provide updates over the coming days, but I think a White Christmas may have to wait for another year. Keep an eye on this blog and the MWN Forecast for more. We'll see...

As a side note, in case you have been living under a rock (now that's not nice...), an "epic" winter storm (Nor'Easter) is headed for the Northeast after wreaking havoc on the Mid-Atlantic over the past 24 hours. Snowfall records are being broken, power outages are widespread, road travel is treacherous or non-existent and air travel has been brought to a standstill, military units are being deployed to assist those stranded, and the wind is creating blizzard conditions for areas along the I-95 corridor from D.C. to NYC and beyond. There are many sources on the web covering the events, including The Weather Channel, independent bloggers, major news networks, and individuals. It's not hard to find something on this storm. Since this blog focuses on Mid-South weather, I'll leave it at that and let you check your favorite national source. I'm just glad it's not here!

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