Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Recap of Tuesday's storms and a "cool" forecast

As covered on MWN's Twitter feed as it occurred, last evening the metro area experienced frequent lightning, seemingly continuous thunder, and localized downpours that dropped up to 2-3" of rain (see rainfall estimate map below; click for larger image) and caused flash flooding in parts of east Memphis, more of the same may be on the way. The weather pattern, which features a tropical airmass overhead and plenty of instability, has not changed significantly from yesterday, so thunderstorms could again rumble over the region this afternoon and evening.

One more day of this type of weather is expected on Thursday, though things change drastically as we head into the start of the weekend. A fall-like upper-level trough, strong for this time of year, will swing into the region from Canada on Friday and linger through the weekend. The trough will be accompanied at the surface by a strong cold front which will bring thunderstorms, some of which are likely to be severe, to the Mid-South late Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours into early Friday. The area is currently under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for Thursday and Thursday night with damaging wind from a possible squall line and large hail being the main threats. See the day 2 severe weather outlook below.

For the weekend, cooler and much drier air invades the region with humidity levels falling to autumnal levels and temperatures reaching only into the mid 80s. Morning lows will be in the 60s, while a few upper 50s cannot be totally ruled out in typically cooler outlying areas. The MWN Forecast has all the details.

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