Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Cold weather prospects

Enjoy the warmish weather while we have it, folks! The mid 60s today and tomorrow may be the last time you see them for some time! Medium and long-range models are beginning to come around to a major pattern shift this weekend that will take us well into December. A strong trough diving out of Canada appears poised to land square on top of the region Sunday and Monday, while reinforcing shots of cold air line up upstream. Of course, the devil is in the details, but this morning's 6am model run show the potential for some moisture to work into the cold air on Sunday afternoon through early Monday. Surface temps will be critical as it will be cold enough aloft to provide frozen precipitation, albeit light. Looking at the map from the GFS model below, the temp at about 5,000' will be well below zero and there is definitely some moisture in place (light greens indicate light precip amounts).

Will the initial batch of moisture make it into the area? Will the thermal profile in the lowest couple of thousand feet be enough to melt the precip and bring us a cold rain? How long will this cold snap last? A couple of interesting blog posts, with more analysis, have been recently written by my good Meteorology bud Eddie up at (Jackson, TN). I'd encourage you to take a look at these, and stay tuned!

Lastly, I want to wish you and yours a very happy and safe Thanksgiving! I'm thankful for all of you who choose to read this blog and use on a routine basis!

1 comment:

Michael Detwiler said...

Erik..Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours my friend!! Let it snow!