Tropical Storm Cristobal takes aim at the Gulf Coast, and Mid-South

As we just finish the end of the first official week of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the THIRD named storm of the year will become the SECOND U.S. landfall in what is expected to be an active season overall. Previously, Tropical Storm Arthur made a close approach to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday, May 18. That was followed by Tropical Storm Bertha, which formed and gained tropical storm strength an hour before making landfall on the South Carolina coast on May 27.

Tropical Storm Cristobal moves towards the Gulf Coast

Now, all eyes turn toward the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Cristobal churns towards the Louisiana coastline with a Sunday evening landfall projected. Due to recent interaction with the Yucatan peninsula and dry air wrapping around the system, rapid strengthening is not forecast and the system likely won't have time to gain hurricane strength before making landfall.

Saturday morning visible satellite imagery of T.S. Cristobal as it heads for the LA coastline (COD)

Primary threats from the central Louisiana coastline eastward through the MS, AL, and FL panhandle coastal areas this weekend into Monday are torrential rain that is likely to cause freshwater flooding, wind gusts to near hurricane force, up to 5 feet of storm surge, churning waters with high waves and rip currents, and isolated tornadoes.

The official track for T.S. Cristobal as of Saturday morning, via the National Hurricane Center.

Once Cristobal makes landfall, it will move north-northwest across Louisiana into Arkansas on Monday, then accelerate north and northeast into Missouri Tuesday morning and across the Corn Belt into the western Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The main impacts in the Lower Mississippi Valley and north as far as the Mid-South are likely to be gusty wind shifting from east to south, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Forecast tracks from multiple models are in fairly good consensus Saturday morning, as shown by this "spaghetti plot" of model solutions. (Tropical Tidbits)

Remnants of Cristobal to impact the Mid-South

While we won't notice anything out of the ordinary this weekend (mostly sunny with highs in the 90s), initial impacts in the Memphis area will begin Monday as clouds thicken, rain arrives around lunchtime into the afternoon and breezes pick up from the southeast.

Forecast rain amounts from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center show up to 3" in the Memphis metro, while higher amounts will occur just to the east of the center's path with lesser amounts further away. (WeatherBell)

The period of heaviest rainfall in the metro is likely to be Monday evening through Tuesday morning when 2-3" of rain could fall (heaviest in east AR) as the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to move through central AR. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight and the tornado threat will bear watching (though they are typically more common in these scenarios during the daytime hours when the sun's rays provide a little more instability). In addition, wind will pick up out of the southeast to 25-30 mph with gusts reaching 30-40 mph Monday evening and overnight.

According to the early Saturday run of the European model, maximum wind gusts through Tuesday evening will be in the 50-60 mph range just to the east of the storm's path, while we could see 40+ mph peak wind. (WeatherBell)

By Tuesday morning, with the center of the storm into central Missouri, steady rain should taper off but showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible, especially in the morning hours. Wind will likely remain gusty from the south Tuesday, in the 30-35 mph range. By Tuesday night, a cold front will push through, bringing the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms, but also escorting a drier and less humid airmass for the remainder of the week.

Preparation and cleanup weather

We recommend using this weekend to prepare for heavy rain and prolonged strong wind Monday PM into Tuesday. Make sure gutters and storm drains are clear and ready for a couple of inches of rain. Secure outdoor objects or bring them in. A few wind gusts Monday night will exceed 40 mph, but a lengthy period of 30-40 mph wind gusts is expected (up to 24 hours). Once it all passes, pleasant early summer weather with low humidity, highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the mid 60s for several days will make for ideal conditions for any cleanup that is necessary.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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How long will the heat last, and will Cristobal affect Mid-South weather?

For most of last week we had rather sunny skies, with bearable temperatures. Unfortunately, as I'm writing this blog it looks like it'll be hot and steamy over the next week...that is until a potential tropical disturbance. From the end of this week, over the weekend, and into the beginning of next week it looks like it'll be hot and steamy before the remnants of Cristobal brings tropical moisture and rain to the area (primarily on Tuesday). After the remnants of Cristobal leaves the area it looks like conditions for the middle of June could be cooler and dry.

Thursday and Friday

Our chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into Thursday (50% chance). Temperatures will only drop to the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies before our chance for showers and thunderstorms increase during the day and afternoon hours on Thursday (60% chance). Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 80s with winds coming from the southwest at about 10 mph. Luckily overnight into Friday chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease slightly (to about 30%) as temperatures drop to the lower 70s again. During Friday, the shower and rain chances will stick with us (30% chance) as we reach a hot and humid high just below 90. Friday night into Saturday we will see temperatures drop into the lower 70s, under partly cloudy skies, and with a slight chance of rain (20% chance).

The reason we are seeing the shower and thunderstorm chances stick with us is due to a pesky upper level disturbance. This upper level disturbance brings with it some cyclonic vorticity (or counter-clockwise spin in the upper levels of the atmosphere), which leads to pressure falls, instability and sometimes active weather (such as showers and storms).

500mb (18,000 feet) heights and vorticity are shown in this graphic from ECMWF output. The little green and yellow blob of cyclonic vorticity over the Memphis area is what could help create showers and storms Friday. (Wxbell)  

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Saturday and Sunday will mirror each other in almost every way. Both days look like they will top out in the lower 90s, with heat indices nearing 100 (HOT and HUMID!!!!). Sky conditions on both days will be partly cloudy to partly sunny, with very low rain chances. The overnight lows heading into Saturday and Sunday will drop to the lower 70s under some clouds. As we head into Monday temperatures will drop to the mid 70s under a mostly cloudy sky. Monday we have a chance of rain showers (30%) as we top out near 90 once again. 

Tuesday and Wednesday (Cristobal)

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed in the Bay of Campeche near southern Mexico and will sit down there for a couple days before moving north towards the Gulf Coast. It'll likely make landfall somewhere along the LA coastline late Sunday then continue north towards the Mid-South. Looks like it could be wet if you're headed to the AL/FL beaches to start next week. On Tuesday we might see the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal reach Memphis bringing with it tropical moisture, some soaking rain, and temps in the mid 80s. As of right now the European Model is predicting around 1" of rain, with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) predicting 1-2" of rain. Overnight temperatures heading into Wednesday will drop to the mid 70s before a pleasant Wednesday arrives in the area. On Wednesday we will likely top out in the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

European model output showing rain totals for early next week. The model gives us around one inch of rain in the metro area as it tracks Cristobal through AR. (WxBell)

This is how much rain is predicted to fall by the WPC late Monday into late Tuesday. Rain totals predicted by the WPC look to be between one and two inches. 

This is the ensemble "spaghetti" plots for the GFS, Euro, and UKMET models. Spaghetti plots are primarily used to show the numerous potential paths for Cristobal. They show some obvious spread in the paths but it looks like we'll still get something out of this (Weathernerds.org). 

How long will the heat last? 

After the remnants of Cristobal pass during the first half of the week, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting that temperatures will be more pleasant, possibly below normal. The CPC is also predicting that precipitation could be below normal, potentially making for a pleasant and dry period from June 11th-17th.

Temperature outlook provided by the CPC showing that temperatures in Memphis could be a little below normal from June 11th-17th.

Precipitation outlook provided by the CPC showing that precipitation in Memphis could be a little below normal from June 11th-17th.

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder