Sunday, February 4, 2024

A rainy Sunday, then a dry pattern before active weather returns late week

Happy wet Sunday!

Last week proved to be a nice change of pace with average to above normal temperatures and drier weather, which was especially welcome after the mid-to-late active January weeks! The beginning of this week appears to be a similar, calmer story despite what last night and today would suggest. A frontal boundary will move out of the area overnight to make way for a dry early start to the week. Prominent ridging will define the calmer weather for the beginning of the week before an advancing cold front later this week brings returning rain chances. 

Concluding a rainy Sunday

Since last night, an inch to inch and a half of rain has fallen, which brought more relief to the drought situation that the metro is currently under. Another quarter inch or so is possible today. The aforementioned frontal boundary moves out overnight, dropping rain chances in time for the start of the work week. We'll see light rain showers eventually become more scattered in coverage this evening before both cloud cover and rain chances decrease overnight. 

Rain chances decrease for most of the metro overnight on Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary moves out. Surface weather map valid at midnight tonight. (NWS/WPC)

Drier weather for the early week

By sunrise on Monday, we'll be dry and ready for work! And it will be a seasonably mild, mostly sunny work day at that. A shifting ridge will usher in calmer and drier weather for Monday, with highs trending just a bit warmer than Sunday at the mid-50s. Similar weather is expected on Tuesday thanks to the ridge as highs remain in the mid-50s, though skies will be nice and sunny along a north wind. If you prefer warmer highs than that, gradual warming is expected for Wednesday as highs reach the lower 60s. High clouds move in along a south wind on Wednesday, as well. Still, despite the highs, morning lows each day for the early week will certainly feel winter-like as we'll start each day in the 30s and 40s. Regardless, the high pressure ridge will bring a few nice and pleasant days for the beginning half of the week! 

It won't be spring just yet, though!

Rain returns in the late week

A more active latter half of the week is shaping up as a broad surface trough brings in moisture and faster winds. Highs will be pleasant (in the 60s) for Thursday and Friday, but rain chances will be increasing as moisture increases late Thursday. Clouds thicken on Thursday ahead of a cold front, which will lead to some showers Thursday evening before becoming widespread early on Friday. 

On Friday morning, showers ahead of a cold front will lead to a wet early day. (NWS/WPC)

As of now, it appears that these showers may last through midday on Friday, but there is still some uncertainty with that. It hinges on the cold front's speed, which seems that it may slow down and stall over the river into Saturday morning and lead to a few showers that morning as well. Early signs also point to that front finally getting pushed out late in the weekend with rain appearing likely on Sunday. In any case, expect an unsettled end of the week and weekend! As forecasts and models are updated, we'll have more info on this system as the week progresses. Totals look to be 1.5 to 2" by the end of the week, as seen in the graphic below.

From NOAA, rainfall totals this week range from 1.5 to 2 inches for the metro. This includes Sunday's rainfall along with the latter week's showers. (NWS/WPC)

Looking at a drier Valentine's week

Though we have an upcoming "half-and-half" week of sorts (half dry, half wet), outlooks for the following week look to be seasonable temperature-wise and dry! This should make for a nice Valentine's day, if outlooks prove to be accurate. See below for the precipitation probability outlook for the following week. Remember to stay up-to-date on the forecasts for this week, and thanks for reading!

The precipitation probability outlook for the week of February 11th to February 18th shows a strong likelihood of below-average precipitation for the metro. (NOAA/CPC)

Lei Naidoo
MWN Intern

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