Sunday, January 21, 2024

After a winter week, looking ahead at a milder, but wet week

Happy cold, but optimistic Sunday!

After a wintry week with snow, ice, and re-freezing roads, we're looking ahead at a sort-of "recovery" week on both the road and drought aspects. We've had a cold start today, but we're still on an upward path toward milder temperatures. Along that path, though, will be a very wet week.

A cold Sunday and then gradual warming early/mid week

After a(nother) #StupidCold day yesterday, today continues the trend of cold weather, but our highs stay above freezing and a ridge of high pressure keeping partly sunny skies in the area will help to improve neighborhood roads that have been struggling the past week. Sadly, lows tonight will be low enough to re-freeze areas that are wet and melted. But this leads into Monday's discussion. Southeasterly flow from the Gulf will bring in slightly warmer temps and moisture, which will lead to a few afternoon showers and a rainy night tomorrow. This will do a lot to help melt those roads that are still icy. 

Surface map for Monday at 6pm, with arrows showcasing southeasterly flow and the chance for PM showers. (NWS/WPC)

For those with concerns about freezing rain, by the time showers move to our area tomorrow, we'll be warm enough to not worry about that possibility. By Monday night, most roads should be washed out and ice-less as lows will be in the 40s and showers persist. Similar wet weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with sporadic showers, but temperatures will be gradually warming each day as we return to near-normal levels (highs in the low 50s for Tuesday and near 60° for Wednesday!). The occasional thunderstorm is possible towards mid-week as upper-level disturbances bring more wet weather, but we'll be well below severe thresholds for the week. 

A continued wet pattern with some cooling for the late week

A cold front pushes through Wednesday night which will bring more scattered showers that night and Thursday. The front will lead into a gradual cooling pattern as we dip from highs near 60° on Thursday to lower highs in the 50s on Friday and Saturday. A few showers are possible on Friday, but these will not be as widespread as earlier in the week. Saturday also looks to be rainy and mild as the cold front stalls to our east. 
As the cold front stalls to our east, temps will be near-normal again towards the end of the week. Shown are Friday morning temperatures from the European ensemble. (WeatherBell) 

Thankfully, none of the rainy days this week will involve winter weather! We'll be on break this week in that regard, since temperatures will be in the 50s and near 60° for the middle part of the week and latter half. 

Flash flooding potential and looking at a dry February beginning

Now, due to each day this week featuring a fair bit of rainfall, flash flooding is the primary concern for this week. Totals by the end of the week could accumulate to 3 to 5 inches. 

From NOAA, rainfall totals for this week range from 3 to 5 inches for the metro. 

Flash flooding concerns will mainly be confined to localized, low-lying areas for us. Regardless, always remember to turn around if you see standing water, and don't drown! 

On a different note, unlike this week and the last, the beginning of February looks to be drier and warmer than average! It looks to be a nice break after this upcoming rainy week and the wintry MLK week. See below for the precipitation probability outlook. As forecasts are updated for the following week, stay tuned, and thanks for reading! 

Precipitation outlook for the end of January and beginning of February, showing odds of drier than normal weather for areas along and east of the Mississippi River. (NOAA/CPC)

Lei Naidoo
MWN Intern

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