Monday, October 25, 2021

Chilly weather incoming, just in time for Halloween!

If you’re a fan of chilly nights, cool and rainy days, and leaves changing color, this week is the perfect forecast for you! Sustained cooler weather looks to FINALLY be here for the fall season! The weather is looking very nice for Tuesday, with a cold front and low pressure system bringing cloudy and rainy weather for Wednesday through Friday. Halloween weekend is looking wonderful, right around the average for the time of year, with chilly nights and cool, sunny, and crisp afternoons. At this time it’s looking great for trick-or treaters! 

A pattern shift coming

The overall weather pattern over the U.S. has essentially been locked in place for some time. I’m sure you’ve noticed the almost “endless summer” feel of September and much of October, despite some recent small stretches of relief from high humidity. There has been a persistent high pressure ridge over the Mid-South and eastern U.S., with a persistent low pressure trough over the western U.S. Recently, this pattern has brought a barrage of much-needed rainfall, and even some mountain snow, to the drought and wildfire stricken west coast, but unfortunately for us that has meant that fall weather has been delayed with well above average temperatures. Now, as we finish out the month of October, that pattern is finally flipping, with a high pressure ridge developing over the western U.S., and a low pressure trough developing over the eastern U.S. This means that cooler air looks to finally be here to stay for us in Memphis. 

The upper level pattern over the U.S. Thursday morning, as shown by the GFS model. You can easily see the large dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S., which will bring us below average temperatures. This is a complete reversal of the pattern over the last 6 weeks or so. (WeatherBell)

Tuesday-Wednesday - sun gives way to rain

The cold front that gave us a gorgeous Monday afternoon will allow our temperatures to fall into the 40s by Tuesday morning. We’ll wake up to cool and refreshing weather, and it should stay that way all day! We likely won’t even hit 70 degrees on Tuesday afternoon, with temps in the upper 60s, lots of sunshine, and dry air in place. However, by Wednesday rain and the possibility of a few storms looks to enter the picture once again. The good news is that the cold front moving in Wednesday will not have any warm air or severe weather ingredients to work with, since this front will come on the heels of Monday’s front. The atmosphere simply will not have enough time to ‘reset’ for another round of severe weather in the Mid-South. Rain chances will increase slowly Wednesday as the front approaches, starting with a few showers, increasing to a steadier rain with a few storms possible by the evening. The rain could be heavy at times Wednesday night, as the storm system will have an injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Eastern Pacific hurricane Rick. Highs will be right around 70 degrees, with a low in the mid 50s. 

Rainfall totals through the end of the week show widespread one inch totals are likely with heavier amounts to our west where more thunderstorms are likely. Some of this rain is indirectly contributed by a hurricane that makes landfall about 1500 miles away in the Eastern Pacific! (WeatherBell) 

End of the week - cool, damp, and breezy

The steadier rain moves out Wednesday night, but the large area of low pressure will linger over the Mid-South for a couple more days, keeping our weather cool, breezy, and unsettled. Thursday, expect a cool day with cloudy skies, off and on showers, and wind gusts that could approach 30 mph! Highs will only be in the mid 60s. We’ll drop down to near 50 for Friday night, and then Friday looks to be the coolest day of the next 7. We won’t budge much from our starting temperature of 50, and we should stay in the 50s all day! It will feel quite chilly out there with the cloud cover, lingering light rain showers or drizzle and breezy wind continuing. Keep this is mind if you are planning to head out to Friday Night Lights! 

Halloween weekend and beyond - FALL!

Luckily, the low pressure slowly lumbers out of the southern U.S. just in time for the holiday weekend. Saturday, clouds will be decreasing throughout the day, and we should end the day mostly sunny. Highs will remain cool in the low 60s. The clouds clearing out will allow our lows to drop much further, so Saturday night we should easily get into the 40s. 

A look at the temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for oct 28-Nov 4, as forecast by the European model. Below average weather persists into next week! (WeatherBell)

Halloween is looking picture-perfect. No tricks with this forecast! It should be a stellar day, with highs in the upper 60s, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and 50s for trick-or-treat time. We love to see it! 

The nice weather rolls on right into next week, and thankfully at this time it doesn’t look like well above average temperatures will be returning any time soon. 

The temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center for the first week of November indicates below normal temperatures will likely hang on for the eastern U.S. as the trough dominates at the upper levels. (NWS/CPC)

Christian Bridges
MWN Intern

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