Monday, April 6, 2020

Rain chances mid-week, followed by a pleasant and dry end of the week


We are definitely warm this afternoon as a weak ridge situates over the southeast. Temperatures are near 80 in the metro with a mix of sun and clouds in the sky heading into Monday evening. Today turned out to be a truly gorgeous day, but clouds will be on the increase throughout the evening hours. Monday night will be mostly dry with mostly cloudy skies, but an isolated shower is possible especially after midnight. Overnight temperatures continue to stay warm with lows only falling into the mid-60s thanks to a southerly wind.

Visible Satellite Imagery at 2pm showing increasing clouds across the southeast especially over AR, TN, and MS. (


A continued southerly wind will help enhance instability across the region on Tuesday giving us one of our best chances of rain this week. Warm temperatures and increased moisture will aid in forming scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon. A few peeks of sunshine are possible early Tuesday, but the majority of the day will consist of mostly cloudy skies. Most of the thunderstorm activity will occur across northern Mississippi and the strong to severe concern for this event will be on the lower end. Afternoon highs will reach close to 80 but will be cut short as showers move through the metro area. Thankfully Tuesday’s event does not look like a washout with totals less than a 0.1 inches and a few dry hours scattered throughout the day. Overnight, temperatures will stay warm with lows only falling into the upper 60s but most of the showers will have moved out of the area.

The European model showing total rainfall across the southeast through Tuesday at Midnight. Totals across the Metro are less than 0.1 (tenth) of an inch. (


While a southwesterly wind continues into Wednesday, much of the moisture and clouds will move out of the area during the early morning hours. This will leave a very summer-like day for Wednesday. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few clouds but afternoon temperatures will easily warm into the mid-80s. By Wednesday evening clouds will begin to move back into the region as a shortwave trough approaches the area. This will bring our best chance and last chance of rain across the southeast for the next several days and that is something we have not gotten to say a lot!

Wednesday Night Storms

Wednesday night will also bring along a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms. As temperatures rise throughout the day, dewpoint temperatures will rise accordingly to near 70 degrees. With all the warmth and moisture available, instability will be considerable. As the trough approaches, a squall line of thunderstorms will form and propagate through the region during the evening and overnight hours on Wednesday. April is the peak time for southeastern U.S. tornadoes, and while a few embedded within the line are possible, the main concern with this line will be damaging winds. With strong straight-line winds the biggest cause for concern, a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather is warranted for most of the metro.

The SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday night, April 8. (NOAA/SPC)

Thursday and Friday

Behind this trough are much cooler temperatures. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook, a cooler and wetter trend is likely to setup. The models are struggling to agree on how much and when precipitation will occur over the next week. As of now, Thursday and Friday appear to be carbon copies of each other. We will have lots of sunshine with afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s as a high pressure situates over western Tennessee to help end the workweek. Very pleasant and dry weather to get out and enjoy!

Get out and enjoy the great springtime weather Thursday and Friday!

Saturday - Monday

Into the weekend, confidence continues to be thin. According to the European model, the high pressure moves off to our east on Saturday allowing for some widely scattered showers to move through. Some of us may even make it through the day without seeing a shower at all on Saturday. Into Sunday mostly cloudy skies move back into the metro with a few more showers. The GFS and EURO differ considerably here as the GFS shows a dry Saturday and a fairly wet Sunday evening into Monday. The EURO picks up on this precipitation pattern but is much more conservative. The GFS shows more of a widespread pattern moving in later as the EURO shows a mostly scattered setup moving in by lunch on Sunday and out but midnight. Despite the discrepancy in the timing, Monday appears to be a cool, mostly cloudy day with highs in the mid-60s.
This is the GFS model beginning at Midnight Saturday and ending Sunday night at midnight. (

This is the European model beginning at Midnight Saturday and ending Sunday night at midnight. (

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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