Monday, July 1, 2019

Holiday week forecast plays like a broken record

Welcome to your typical summer in the Mid-South, where we have all the heat, humidity, and afternoon rain chances you could ever dream of! Just kidding - but what Memphis forecast is complete without all of that summertime goodness?? No significant weather patterns, or changes in the pattern, for the upcoming week to report on, but here we go again with just more average temperatures and rain chances.


HRRR Model showing pop-up showers around the Mid-South for most of Monday afternoon and early evening. (WxBell)

We experienced another hot day in the Mid-South today with some pop-up showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of the metro. This was in part due to the heat and humidity lingering around much of southeast U.S., but also an outflow boundary that drifted south and stalled out right on the TN/MS state line. Tonight a few clouds linger after evening showers dissipate, keeping us in the mid 70's overnight. Pretty still night with a light southerly wind. 


Lots of sunshine tomorrow with partly cloudy skies overall. Another day with more heat and humidity as highs reach the lower 90s. Rain chances remain at 20% as a few PM t'storms are expected, but widely scattered. The NAM model is showing those showers coming through mainly in the afternoon with more low chances carrying overnight into Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70's again with mostly cloudy skies and 20% chance of a shower.

The NAM model shows scattered showers around the southeast U.S. from Tuesday through Thursday. (Tropical Tidbits)


More clouds are expected for your Wednesday with scattered rain chances continuing. Highs will again be in the lower 90's with a southwest breeze. Rain chances are near 30%, with the greatest chances in the afternoon and slight chances lingering into the evening and overnight. For those attending fireworks displays Wednesday evening, the forecast is for mainly dry conditions, especially after 7-8pm.

Guilty as charged...

July 4th!

Rain can't keep us Americans down! We're still looking at partly sunny skies with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90's will make it a day that calls for lots of water and sunscreen. The GFS model, below, shows just how scattered those rain chances are looking for Thursday around the Ohio River Valley and the Mid-South. However, after sunset, rain percentages look to diminish, making for a decent fireworks forecast! Lows will be in the mid 70's overnight, but from about 8pm-midnight, we should be in the 80's. Plan ahead if you'll be shooting off firecrackers!

GFS showing scattered showers around the Ohio River Valley Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)


The day after holiday festivities includes, you guessed it, temps in the lower 90's with partly cloudy skies. If you're lucky enough to be off work, I would recommend a nice pool party. More chances of afternoon t'storms are expected with chances at 30%, but very scattered once again. Just remember to evacuate the pool if thunder roars! Lows for Friday night will be in the mid 70's, making for a warm but enjoyable evening.  

The Weekend

It's the weekend and I'm done... almost the exact same forecast for both days, and just like the week prior. Highs in the lower 90's with partly sunny skies. 30% chance of showers and t'storms for both days in the afternoon. Lows overnight cooling off into the mid 70's.

With almost every day looking the same, Memphis forecasts are easy, aren't they? 😉 Just kidding. All in all not too shabby for your holiday week/weekend, but no relief from the heat unfortunately. Those typical temps and rain chances will continue, because it's only July 1st. Have a great holiday, and be safe everyone!

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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