Saturday, October 27, 2018

An awesome fall weekend, but Halloween could be ghoulish..

We have a great weekend ahead! This is what fall feels like!

In the wake of rain and dreariness the past couple of days, skies have cleared out nicely this morning and high pressure will be moving by to our north, resulting in a fantastic weekend if you have outdoor plans. Highs today rise into the mid 60s following a crisp autumn morning. Sunday will be even better as wind shifts to the south briefly, helping to push temperatures into the mid 70s by afternoon. A dry, cloud-less cold front is expected mid-day which will turn those winds around to the northwest, but won't have an effect on temperatures. Expect a decent breeze all day.

The pleasant trend continues as we start the week with sunny skies Monday and slightly cooler temperatures behind Sunday's front, but still eclipsing the 70° mark. On Tuesday, south wind picks up again with high clouds increasing as temperatures push well into the 70s, with an outside shot at a few locations seeing 80°! The increase in clouds may be the only thing that keeps most of us from seeing a temperature that starts with an '8' for the first time in nearly three weeks.

Unfortunately, the wettest system in some time looks like it will choose Wednesday, Halloween Day, to move across the region. There will also be some decent upper level support with the approaching cold front, so some thunderstorms are also expected. It's too early to know if there could be some strong storms, but the NWS has signaled the possibility, with low confidence. Rainfall amounts on Wednesday could easily eclipse an inch and a couple of inches is not out of the question. If you have the opportunity to try out those costumes this weekend at a local fall festival, we strongly recommend it!

NWS-Memphis is indicating a few strong storms are possible for Halloween. Confidence for now is low (1/5). (NWS-Memphis)

The overnight run of the European model is bullish on precipitation totals for the mid-week system with perhaps 2"+ in the metro region. The development of a low pressure area along the front and potential storms will drive rainfall totals. (WxBell) 

Model trends the last few days have been varying for trick-or-treat hours Wednesday night with some solutions indicating that the rain might move through more quickly, while others paint a very ghoulish forecast that would likely preempt all but the most dedicated of sugary-treat gatherers. The latest runs of the American GFS, European, and Canadian models all indicate that the front itself could move through by the evening hours, but lots of things could change that forecast. Halloween fans should hope for a quick frontal passage, which could mean just light rain and cool temperatures Wednesday evening. We'll hopefully have a more solid forecast by early in the week, which we'll post to the blog. Our best guess at temperatures Wednesday evening is about 60°, plus or minus 5°.

Behind the mid-week front, trends show fairly decent improvement by Thursday into the end of the week. It will definitely be back to cooler weather, and we'll be watching for the potential of upper level systems to produce a chance of rain here or there. For now, we're sticking with cool for the period about a week from now.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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