Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Relief in sight, with a price

It's become clear to us that everyone is sick of the heat, us included. If this is actually true, we do have some good news in this forecast blog. The only problem? This dry spell we've had the past several days is finally coming to an end, because any good thing has to come with a catch.


Our nighttime forecast has become a broken record for the past week almost now (not just daytime). Plan on clear skies tonight. As for temperatures: despite those clear skies, conditions will be very mild with a low around 75 and dew points hanging around 70 (that dew point means it's muggy!).


Tomorrow, the ridging over the southeast continues, bringing in muggy conditions from the south with southerly flow. Source: Tropical Tidbits (GFS MSLP and 10m winds)

The "Death Ridge" as I'm calling it remains in the south tomorrow. That means that we are going to remain dry as temperatures again soar into the mid 90s and heat indices linger around 100. With winds wrapping around that high from the south, muggier air from the Gulf will be brought in during the day. What does that mean: bad hair day, uncontrollable sweating, swearing every time you step outside and you feel like you are stepping into an oven. The only thing we've got going for us in the forecast tomorrow is mostly sunny skies. As for tomorrow night, an increase in clouds is expected. Temperatures drop to a not so cool low of 75, once again.


Friday, especially in the afternoon/evening, we start watching a front that will be working its way into the Mid-South. With it comes our break from the heat. Source: Tropical Tidbits (12km NAM Reflectivity and MSLP)

Here's where we finally break free of that bland, intolerable forecast. Friday will start with a mix of sun and clouds, along with humid, hot conditions (but not as hot with highs around 90). Later in the day, we start watching an inbound front that will start dipping down towards us. With it comes the chance for showers and storms for the afternoon and evening. That rain chance will hang on through the night, meaning clouds will be stuck in the forecast keeping our low in the 70s, but slightly cooler around 72. Along with those clouds during the night, rain chances remain as we deal with that front starting to stall.

The Weekend

Plans for the weekend? They might be a little difficult. That front coming Friday stalls over the Mid-South. That means each day, throughout the entire day, we will be dealing with scattered showers and storms. That said, it won't be a total wash out. We will see some breaks in the rain. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with the arrival of the rain. Saturday will see temps topping off in the mid 80s and Sunday will be even cooler in the lower 80s (oh sweet relief). Now despite the cooler weather, clouds at night mess up any chances at crisp fall-like temps overnight. Instead, look for lows around 70. For those heading to the Liberty Bowl for Memphis Tigers football game Saturday, it's still TBD how exactly rain could/will impact the game, but know that there is the chance for it. But hey, cooler temperatures at least!

Next Week (Monday-Wednesday)

That stalled front from the weekend? Yeah, about that. It stays in our forecast for Monday as it weakens, meaning we hang on to our rain chances; however, they do drop slightly as the energy for the front dissipates. While that energy drops, we will start to see a weak southerly flow start to be reestablished. All of this adds up to our temperatures starting to climb slightly. Despite that, we don't return to the 90s and dewpoints should remain below 70. Despite the falling rain chances, plan on more scattered shower and storm activity, rather than more organized precipitation like we will have during the weekend. Nights should be mostly dry as lows keep hovering around 70.

A Bigger Cool Down In Sight?

Models are picking up on a bigger cool down near the end of next work week. What exactly will the temperatures be? They will be noticeably cooler, but we want to wait before giving any exact details since we are still a week or so out. But it is conceivable that we could see lows into the 50s. The week 2 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a strong likelihood of below normal temperatures - the first time we have seen that in recent memory!

The week 2 (Sep 27-Oct 3) temperature outlook for the U.S. indicates a strong chance of below average temperatures for a large portion of the central U.S., including the Mid-South. (NOAA/CPC)

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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