Monday, September 3, 2018

August 2018 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

August Climate Recap

The month of August ended slightly below normal in the temperature category, but by less than a degree. Due to a couple of cold frontal passages, temperatures alternated between below and above normal during the month. The first 10 days of August were primarily below average, followed bya a week of above average warmth, then a week of below average temperatures, followed by warmth again to end the month. No daily records were set.

Scattered thunderstorms during the month resulted in varying rainfall totals, though the two recorded locations for this report (Memphis International Airport and in Bartlett) were both below average. Some areas in the metro, however, saw isolated urban flooding from localized thunderstorms and easily exceeded "normal" rainfall for the month, particularly the second half of August. The recording station in Bartlett at MWN only received just over an inch of rain for the month. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued on August 18, 20, and 30 and a small Flash Flood Warning was issued August 29. There were no widespread reports of damage from severe weather during the month however.

A plot of all severe weather warnings issued in the Memphis area in August. All but one were Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (yellow), while a single small Flash Flood Warning (green) was issued in southeast Shelby County.

Seasonal Recap

June, July, and August comprise "meteorological" (or more appropriately "climatological") summer. This year, the average temperature for this period was 82.1 degrees, which is 0.7 degrees above the long-term climate average of 81.4 degrees. Precipitation totaled 9.13", which is 1.97" below the climate average of 11.10". No temperature or precipitation records were set during the three-month season.

The Drought Monitor shows "abnormally dry" conditions exist across parts of the Memphis metro as of the end of August. (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 81.3 degrees (0.7 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 90.3 degrees (1.0 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 72.4 degrees (0.3 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 95 degrees (11th, 16th)
Coolest temperature: 65 degrees (23rd)
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 514 (13 below average)
Records set or tied: None.
Comments: Nineteen days recorded high temperatures at or above 90 degrees, which is 0.2 days below average.

Monthly total: 2.07" (0.81" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8 (1.2 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.08" (20th)
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Two days recorded more than 0.5" of rain.

Peak wind: Northwest/36 mph (29th)
Average wind: 6.9 mph
Average relative humidity: 73%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 79.9 degrees
Average high temperature: 91.4 degrees
Average low temperature: 70.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 95.6 degrees (26th)
Coolest temperature: 59.0 degrees (23rd)
Comments: None.

Monthly total: 1.07" (automated rain gauge), 1.15" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 0.46" (20th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: South/24 mph (20th)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 30.03 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.38 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 83%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.42 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 81%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - September

The September climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of the United States outside of the northwest, with the highest odds of that occurring in the northeast and desert southwest. For Memphis, odds of above normal temperatures in September are 44%, near normal 33% and below normal 23%. Memphis typically averages just above 75 degrees for the month of September, or about 7 degrees cooler than A

For precipitation, enhanced odds of a wetter than normal month of September are particularly pronounced from the western through central plains into the midwest and western Great Lakes. Precipitation is also more likely to be above normal along the Gulf coast, and portions of the southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Below average precipitation is more likely in the Pacific Northwest. For Memphis, there are equal odds of above, near, and below normal precipitation. September is typically the second driest month of the year, averaging 3.09" of rainfall.

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