Monday, January 16, 2017

Potentially Stormy Week Ahead in Memphis

Is this winter or is this spring? With a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week ahead and temperatures in the 50s and 60s, many are wondering where Mother Nature sent away winter to and when it might come back.

Severe Potential on Monday Night

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been rolling through northern Mississippi, Arkansas, and western Tennessee throughout the day on Monday, but will increase in number and intensity into Monday night. A slow-moving system that helped bring lots of ice and wintry conditions to the Central Plains is driving a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) for severe weather this evening, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River.

With a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) of severe weather this evening across the Memphis metro, be on the lookout for heavy downpours, thunder, and some strong winds on occasion. These storms should weaken by the overnight hours. (NWS/SPC)
The key takeaways from the threat of these storms will be locally heavy downpours, thunder, and brief strong wind gusts. Not every passing shower or thunderstorm will produce these, however. Showers may continue into the overnight hours and early on Tuesday, but the thunderstorm threat should abate by about midnight tonight. Temperatures this evening will fall off into the mid to upper 50s. Winds continue out of the south between 10 to 15 mph.

Continued Showers Possible

More showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible throughout the rest of the week as this expansive low pressure system slowly inches east. A cold front should be passing through the region early Tuesday morning, with a wind shift accompanying it from the south to the west. Temperatures will fall off slightly, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows should only drop off into the upper 40s to mid 50s, a far cry from how low those temps should be this time of year. (Our average low temperature in mid-January is near the freezing mark!)

The same system that brought very icy conditions to the Central Plains this weekend will slowly push east, bringing a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms through this week for the Memphis area. The map above is valid at 6pm Tuesday. (NWS/WPC)

Another round of rain/storms

Temperatures will rebound on Thursday, with highs in the mid-60s in the metro, but with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms as the slow-moving stationary front to our south continues to push out and low pressure develops to our southwest and moves across the area. A couple of those storms could be severe Thursday afternoon and into the evening. However, that rain will give way to a good start to your weekend, with temps nearing 70 degrees and partly sunny skies on Friday into Saturday. Lows remain comfortable for January, in the mid-50s, just cool enough to need a light jacket when taking the kids to school in the morning.

Early next week

As one system exits our picture late this week, another is taking shape over the west coast. That system could once again bring showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend into early next week to the Memphis area, with the best chance coming on Sunday. A chance of showers continues to hold in the forecast through at least Monday, with temperatures taking a dive into the 50s for highs and 40s for lows to start your next work week.

Where is winter, you might ask? Most of the eastern U.S. has been under well above average temperatures for the past week or so. However, long range models suggest that warm pool will be cooling off and winter-like temperatures could make a comeback as soon as the end of this month.

NOAA's 8-14 day temperature outlook covering January 24-30 suggests that warmer temperatures across the eastern half of the country will weaken, letting old man winter back in. (NWS/CPC)
Be sure to stay on top of the human-powered MWN Forecast this week and into the next by downloading the MWN mobile app or bookmarking our website. We’ll provide continuous updates on our social media platforms as well. Links to all of these tools can be found below this post.

Alex Herbst, Meteorologist
MWN Social Media Intern

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