Monday, July 7, 2014

Severe storms possible Tuesday evening ahead of another cold front

A welcome break from soggy conditions that pushed the month of June up to the 8th wettest month on record resulted in a well-timed Canadian high pressure system bringing cool air into the region for the July 4th holiday. More like early fall than the typical "dog days" of summer, we received no complaints on the conditions late last week that featured cool mornings, low humidity, and very pleasant evenings.

As high pressure shifted east and southerly wind returned, so has the humidity and warmer temperatures the last couple of days. however, another cold front will move slowly through the region Wednesday, bringing elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms, and possibly some severe weather. The map below highlights the area where a Slight Risk of severe weather exists Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Slight Risk of severe weather for the highlighted area Tuesday PM.
With moisture increasing, the cold front approaching, and highs into the 90s on Tuesday, the atmosphere will set the table for strong to possibly severe storms across parts of the Mid-South. The greatest risk will be to our east, but thunderstorms expected Tuesday night could bring strong wind and heavy downpours to the area, besides the lightning threat that accompanies all thunderstorms. Hail and a tornado are a minimal secondary risk. The most likely time for strong storms in the metro will be during the evening hours up until around midnight. I expect, though, that thunder will be possible throughout the night into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the region.

The high-res NAM model indicates storms across the area at 10pm Tuesday

The NAM model depicts instability (or thunder-fuel) at 10pm Tuesday sufficient for strong to severe storms.
By Wednesday evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be south of the metro in MS as the front weakens and washes out. Severe weather is not as big of a threat on Wednesday due to the earlier timing of the precipitation, which should hold temperatures down and keep instability values tempered.

By Thursday, high pressure will build in from the north, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity (though not quite as glorious as late last week). High pressure will keep dry weather around into at least early in the weekend before shifting east and, once again, bringing hot and humid conditions back into the region. Another round of 90s (maybe mid 90s) with heat indices of 100+ is possible by early next week. Click here for the complete MWN Forecast, or find it anytime in our mobile apps (link below). We'll keep you updated on the thunderstorms trends via our social channels, also listed below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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