Friday, May 9, 2014

Update on tonight's storm chances and Mother's Day weekend weather

With the first round of rain gone, all eyes turn west for the next chance of precipitation, which arrives overnight tonight. Though a stray shower is possible this afternoon, last night's activity has stabilized the muggy atmosphere for the time being.

By this evening, scattered storms are expected to form across AR and southeast MO moving east to southeast. We feel the best chance for rain in the metro will be after 10pm, lasting possibly all night. Any showers and t'storms are expected to be scattered however and it's possible that some areas will see no rain overnight. We put the chance of rain after 8pm at 50%.

As for the severity of any storms, the threat for large hail and damaging wind has diminished somewhat, enough that the Storm Prediction Center has moved the metro out of the Slight Risk zone, though close enough to keep the antenna up. The main threat from overnight storms will be dangerous lightning, brief downpours, and gusty wind.

The Slight Risk zone has been moved just outside the metro, but a few strong storms are still possible overnight. Above are probabilities for tornadoes (upper-right), large hail (lower left), and damaging wind (lower right) within 25 miles.
If you have outdoor activities planned for the evening hours, our recommendation is to go on with them, have an alternate plan ready, and keep a close eye to the sky and monitor our social media feeds below for the latest information. Anything that ends by about 10pm has a decent chance of being unaffected by rain.

Heading into the Mother's Day weekend, previously advertised "likely" rain chances have diminished some. With the front still well to our west and no good "focus" for storm development, rain chances are in the 20-30% range now. Sunday has the best chance of staying dry all day. However, we'll trade rain for heat and humidity from the Gulf of Mexico as early summer-like conditions make an appearance. Unlike our mid 80s from earlier in the week, mid 80s this weekend will be accompanied by enough humidity to make things a bit uncomfortable. These conditions continue into Monday.

By Tuesday, a slow-moving cold front with a cooler airmass behind it will infiltrate the region. Model differences exist on timing of rainfall, but Tuesday into early Wednesday appears to pose a risk for periods of heavy rain. We'll be monitoring this carefully. By late week, skies clear and we're back to pleasant conditions with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s - just in time for BBQ Fest weekend! Click here for the complete MWN Forecast or check it anytime in the MWN mobile apps!

In the meantime, keep an eye on MWN StormView Radar in our mobile apps or on the web for any storm development tonight!

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Kristen said...

Thank you for always keeping us informed! How is Saturday looking, have an outdoor bday party? Thanks

Meteorologist Erik Proseus said...

Just a 20-30% chance of t'storms, maybe some lingering in the AM from overnight tonight, then a slight chance in the afternoon. Not too bad!