Tuesday, May 6, 2014

April 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

April Recap

Following well below normal temperatures in the first three months of the year, April offered only slightly below normal temperatures, making for an overall pleasant month. One temperature record was broken, the coolest maximum temperature on April 30th, which saw a high of only 58.  Precipitation for the month was slightly above the long-term climate average with no records set or tied.

The month was bookended by severe weather events on the 3rd-4th and 27th-28th, as well as strong storms on the 14th that brought microburst wind of 70 mph to Collierville. On the 3rd, a Moderate Risk of severe storms was forecast but afternoon supercells did not materialize and a Slight Risk carried into the overnight hours as a squall line affected mainly the city of Memphis and north MS. Some wind damage was noted in northwest MS and large hail fell in Fayette County.

On the 27th-28th, multiple rounds of severe weather were expected and a Moderate Risk was again posted. As it turns out, the metro experienced a squall line around rush hour on the morning of the 28th with some wind damage and a brief EF-0 tornado in the Bolton community. The strongest storms and tornadoes stayed in AR on the 27th and across northeast and central MS into AL on the 28th.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 62.0 degrees (0.9 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 72.3 degrees
Average low temperature: 51.7 degrees
Warmest temperature: 83 degrees (24th, 26th)
Coolest temperature: 36 degrees (15th)
Records set or tied: Record low maximum temperature: 58 degrees on the 30th
Comments: Zero days had below freezing temperatures and 5 days had maximum temperatures above 80.

Monthly total: 6.14 " (0.64" above average)
Snow/ice total: 0"
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.40" (April 27-28)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Two days had more than 1" of rain and five days recorded more than 0.50".

Peak wind: West/46 mph (4th)
Average wind: 8.9 mph
Average relative humidity: 62%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 61.7 degrees
Average high temperature: 73.8 degrees
Average low temperature: 48.9 degrees
Warmest temperature: 83.8 degrees (26th)
Coolest temperature: 30.8 degrees (16th)
Comments: One day had a low temperature below freezing and 10 days had high temperatures above 80. However, sensor issues for part of the month resulted in slightly elevated high temperatures during the maintenance period.

Monthly total: 6.11" (automated rain gauge), 6.25" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Snow/ice total: 0"
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest date: 1.83" (14th)
Comments: Three days with more than 1" of rain and four days with more than 0.50".

Peak wind: Southwest/28 mph (28th)
Average relative humidity: 70%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.41 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 53%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.75 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 50%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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